Monday, April 12, 2021

Where the battle for the House stands — Outside spending flows into Louisiana special — Biden tries to move ahead on civil rights

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Score is your guide to the year-round campaign cycle.
Apr 12, 2021 View in browser
 
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By Ally Mutnick and Zach Montellaro

Editor's Note: Weekly Score is a weekly version of POLITICO Pro's daily Campaigns policy newsletter, Morning Score. POLITICO Pro is a policy intelligence platform that combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.

Quick Fix

— The House map may be frozen because of redistricting data delays, but both parties have already started to fire up their recruitment machines.

— Outside groups are getting in the special election in LA-02, with the independent-expenditure arm of EMILY's List and a traditionally Republican group both spending.

— President Joe Biden is trying to advance a civil-rights agenda, including voting rights — but activists warn he needs Congress to make sweeping changes.

Good Monday morning. I've turned today's Topline over to our House campaigns expert Ally Mutnick (amutnick@politico.com; @allymutnick). Email me at zmontellaro@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com and jarkin@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve and @JamesArkin.

Days until the LA-02 special election runoff: 12

Days until the TX-06 special election: 19

Days until the NM-01 special election: 50

Days until the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections and OH-11 special election: 204

Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 575

Days until the 2024 election: 1,303

TopLine

Elaine Luria gestures during an interview.

Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.) is picking up a Republican challenger this week. | Steve Helber/AP Photo

THE HOUSE MAP — It will be months before we know the final congressional district lines, but both parties are still recruiting candidates in full force. We've got an early look at some of the most interesting potential (and a few declared) challengers in some hotly contested House races. Early recruitment will be essential to the GOP's bid to take back the majority — remember they missed it in 2020 in large part thanks to a number of lackluster recruits in key districts.

This cycle, Republicans are taking a page out of Democrats' 2018 playbook and doubling down on veteran candidates. Some examples: state Sen. Jen Kiggans, a former Navy pilot-turned-nurse practitioner, is formally launching a run this week in the Tidewater region of Virginia against Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria , a retired Naval commander herself. Even Democrats admit Kiggans is formidable; She won a competitive state Senate race by just over 500 votes in 2019 — a bad year for Republicans. Last week, Harold Earls IV, a retired Army captain who summited Mt. Everest and led the elite unit that guards the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Arlington National Cemetery, launched a run in suburban Atlanta. There's also state Assemblyman Colin Schmitt, an Army National Guardsman, challenging DCCC Chairman Sean Patrick Maloney in New York and Cory Mills, an Army Bronze Star recipient who survived two bombings in the Middle East, running against Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.).

Other potential candidates to watch: state Sen. Zach Nunn, a lieutenant colonel in the Iowa Air National Guard, against Rep. Cindy Axne (D-Iowa.); state Rep. Chris Croft, a 30-year Army veteran, against Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Kan.); Marine veterans Nick De Gregorio in northern New Jersey and Christopher Rodriguez in the San Diego area. (Former Orange County GOP Chairman Scott Baugh is also eyeing a run California run, possibly against Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) — though he's not a vet.) For more on this strategy, check out our story from Friday.

Meanwhile, House Democrats are recruiting most heavily against their white whales: the moderate suburban Republicans who elude them every cycle. Several challengers are readying bids against Rep. Don Bacon . One Democrat likely to enter: state Sen. Tony Vargas, the son of Peruvian immigrants who has served in the unicameral since 2017 and before that was a school board member. Precious McKesson, the finance director of the state Democratic Party, recently told the Omaha World-Herald's Paul Hammel that she is also considering a run. The party is eager to find a fresh face after Bacon beat Democrat Kara Eastman in 2018 and 2020.

Over in Southern California, a crowd is forming to take on GOP Rep. Mike Garcia, another top Democratic target. Besides Christy Smith, who is making a third run after losing in a 2019 special and the 2020 election, there's mounting speculation that former Democratic Rep. Katie Hill, who resigned that seat in 2019, could be eyeing a comeback. Another name to watch: former Virgin Galactic CEO George T. Whitesides. He was also a former NASA chief of staff — good space credentials in a region with a strong connection to the air and defense industry.

 

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Down the Ballot

JUST SPECIAL — Women Vote!, the independent-expenditure arm of EMILY's List, is going on air to boost state Sen. Karen Carter Petersen, a Democrat, ahead of the April 24 special runoff in LA-02. The group placed a $341,000 TV buy, with broadcast in New Orleans and Baton Rouge, according to tracking from our friends at AdImpact. Peterson's runoff opponent is state Sen. Troy Carter (also a Democrat), who is backed by the seat's former incumbent, now-White House aide Cedric Richmond

A second group has also waded into the race: A super PAC called American Jobs and Growth PAC, which has reported spending against Peterson. The group reported receiving $50,000 from a nonprofit called "American Advancement" in its pre-runoff FEC report. (The filing deadline is today.) Curiously, this group has largely supported Republicans in the past, spending to boost Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and now-Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.), and attacking Reps. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) and Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) in 2020.

— Brian Harrison, who was a senior health official in the Trump administration, is one of the roughly two-dozen people running in the special election primary in TX-06. And his candidacy is infuriating some other Trump alums, POLITICO's Adam Cancryn writes, "prompting complaints that he's inflating his record and trying to co-opt Trump's brand." In an interview, Harrison dismissed complaints about his record and pointed to contributions from prominent Trump administration officials.

THE CASH DASH — We're just a couple days away from the filing deadline! Quarterly federal filers are due on Thursday, and monthly filers next Tuesday.

— FIRST IN SCORE — VA-Gov: Republican Glenn Youngkin said his campaign brought in $7.5 million since he launched his campaign on Jan. 27. Youngkin's campaign did not disclose how much of that total was self-funding. Youngkin's primary rival, Pete Snyder, who said he raised $6.4 million, also did not announce how much of his haul was self-funding. (Virginia candidates are required to report their fundraising on Thursday.)

— NV-Sen: Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto raised $2.3 million and had $4.7 million in the bank.

ELECTION ADMINISTRATORS — Nevada Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske, a Republican, was censured by the state GOP central committee "for disregard of her oath of office," The Nevada Independent's Riley Snyder reported, the latest Republican election official targeted by believers of former President Donald Trump's false election fraud narrative. The censure resolution , which The Independent reported passed on a narrow margin, rehashed unfounded allegations of widespread fraud in the state, calling Cegvske's claims the state had a fair election "an arrogant claim." And while she's escaped much of the national ire that her counterpart Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger has gotten from Trump and his supporters, it is the latest example of Republicans taking aim at a member of their own party for saying the election was a free and fair one.

Nevada will elect a new secretary of state next year: Cegavske is term-limited. She is the only statewide elected Republican currently serving in Nevada, with Democrats holding down the rest of the offices in the battleground state. "My job is to carry out the duties of my office as enacted by the Nevada Legislature, not carry water for the state GOP or put my thumb on the scale of democracy," she said in a statement. "Unfortunately, members of my own party continue to believe the 2020 general election was wrought with fraud — and that somehow I had a part in it — despite a complete lack of evidence to support that belief."

FIRST IN SCORE — MESSAGING MATTERS — Emerging American Majorities, a nonprofit arm of the DLCC, is launching a six-figure digital campaign in Arizona, Nevada and Virginia, tying Biden's American Rescue Plan to state legislative battles. "Here in Virginia, the Democratic majority in the House of Delegates are doing their part, working across the aisle to fully reopen schools," the Virginia ad narrator says. (Here's the Arizona ad and Nevada ad.)

NOMINATING CALENDAR — A bill to move the New Hampshire (non-presidential) primaries to the end of June from mid-September passed out of the state House last week, the Concord Monitor's Paul Steinhauser reported. GOP Gov. Chris Sununu — who is considering running in next year's Senate race — opposes the legislation, and its fate in the Republican-controlled state Senate is uncertain.

BLOOD IN THE WATER? — Rep. Matt Gaetz (F-Fla.) insists he isn't resigning amid a federal investigation (and House ethics inquiry). But if he does bow out, expect there to be a heated race for his Florida Panhandle seat, POLITICO Florida's Gary Fineout reported, listing several could-be candidates. (Click through to find out who!)

DONOR DOLLARS — A lot of donor groups don't publicize their spending. But Way to Win, a progressive group of donors, is out with a report on its 2020 donations that at least gives a peek behind the mirror of where $110 million went. The state that attracted the most money in 2020 was Georgia, followed by Texas and Arizona. Way to Win said it directed money to 265 state-focused organizations and 109 national organizations.

THE PROCESS — The Wisconsin state Supreme Court rejected a lawsuit from a conservative group that sought to have about 69,000 people removed from the voter rolls, Wisconsin Public Radio's Shawn Johnson reported. The group, Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty, wanted people removed from the voter list who may have moved, according to a multi-state database, with the state Supreme Court ruling it wasn't the state election commission's responsibility to remove those names, but local officials'.

— Dozens of business leaders spoke over the weekend to plan what big businesses should do about restrictive voting laws making their way through states like Texas, The Wall Street Journal's Emily Glazer, Chip Cutter and Te-Ping Chen reported, with some executives planning on putting out a collective statement sometime this week.

THE GOVERNATORS — Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) announced that he raised $1 million for his gubernatorial bid within a day of launching, per POLITICO New York's Bill Mahoney (for Pros).

— Former Prince George's County (Md.) Executive Rushern Baker, a Democrat, announced he'll run again for governor after finishing second in the 2018 primary, The Baltimore Sun's Pamela Wood reported. Baker was defeated by Ben Jealous for the Democratic nomination, and Jealous was handily defeated by now-term-limited GOP Gov. Larry Hogan.

— Former Nebraska Gov. Dave Heineman, a Republican, is considering a run for his old office, the Omaha World-Herald's Paul Hammel reported last week, citing "three people who have spoken to the former governor in recent days."

ENDORSEMENT CORNER — The Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC run by allies of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, announced its endorsement of Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska). Trump has insisted he would go to Alaska to campaign against Murkowski, and Republican Kelly Tshibaka has hired top former aides of Trump's 2020 campaign.

Presidential Big Board

THE ADMINISTRATION — Biden has taken some executive action on voting rights and other civil right actions. But activists and civil rights leaders say Biden cannot lose sight of Congress. "There are legislative tools that have to be used. There's a bully pulpit that has to be used, there's executive action that has to be used," former Attorney General Eric Holder told POLITICO's Laura Barrón-López and Eugene Daniels. But "failure to pass [voting-rights] bills, get those bills put into law ... I think that really would have a really substantial negative impact on them building a successful civil rights legacy."

MONEY MOVES — Joint fundraising agreements between national parties and state parties have become a bipartisan way to circumvent contribution limits. In effect, money state parties receive as part of those JFCs are basically instantaneously sent back to the national party — technically allowed because state parties can transfer an unlimited amount to national parties. But Axios' Lachlan Markay reported that some state Republican parties seemed unaware of that arrangement in 2020, with the Vermont state party chair saying it had "not interfaced with other states nor the national RNC on fundraising," despite reporting hundreds-of-thousands in transfers related to the Trump Victory JFC, along with the FEC inquiring into transfers from other state parties.

The RNC defended the arrangement. "We only accept and disburse contributions in accordance with the law, and the RNC was proud to have invested more in our state parties last cycle than ever before," a committee official told Axios. This historical precedent for the Trump operation is, ironically, Hillary Clinton in 2016, who pioneered the practice.

— Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) raised $3 million in the quarter after he led Republicans in rejecting the election results, POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reported. It is a big haul for an off-cycle senator, and he'll report $3.1 million banked.

TRUMP'S PARTY? — Hundreds of prominent Republican donors ventured to Mar-a-Lago on Saturday during the weekend's Republican National Committee donor retreat, where Trump perpetuated his election fraud lies and took aim at Republicans he has deemed disloyal. At the retreat, he called McConnell a "dumb son of a bitch" for not fighting to overturn the election results, said he was "disappointed" in former Vice President Mike Pence and more, POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reported. Some donors privately panned the speech to POLITICO Playbook's Tara Palmeri and Rachael Bade — but Republicans have, by-and-large, been unwilling or unable to move on from Trump, with much of the base still tied to him.

 

YOUR GUIDE TO THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION: As the Biden administration closes in on three months in office, what are the big takeaways? Will polls that show support for infrastructure initiatives and other agenda items translate into Republican votes or are they a mirage? What's the plan to deal with Sen. Joe Manchin? Add Transition Playbook to your daily reads for details you won't find anywhere else that reveal what's really happening inside the West Wing and across the executive branch. Track the people, policies and power centers of the Biden administration. Subscribe today.

 
 

CODA — UNUSUAL HEADLINE OF THE DAY: "W.Va. House unanimous in rejection of governor's plan to cut state income tax" — The Huntington Herald-Dispatch.

 

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