Tuesday, June 1, 2021

What New Mexico’s special election could tell us — Texas Democrats kill election bill — Moderates lead in NYC mayoral race

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By Ally Mutnick and Stephanie Murray

Editor's Note: Weekly Score is a weekly version of POLITICO Pro's daily Campaigns policy newsletter, Morning Score. POLITICO Pro is a policy intelligence platform that combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.

Quick Fix

— Voters head to the polls today in New Mexico, where the special congressional election will give us an early look at the 2022 political environment.

— Texas Democrats walked out of a late-night state legislative session to block a Republican-backed bill that would tighten voting restrictions.

— The top tier of mayoral candidates in New York City are moderates, while progressives struggle to unite behind a single candidate.

Good Tuesday morning. Ally Mutnick (amutnick@politico.com, @allymutnick) wrote today's Topline. Thank you, Ally! Email me at smurray@politico.com and follow me on Twitter at @stephanie_murr.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, zmontellaro@politico.com and jarkin@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @ZachMontellaro and @JamesArkin.

Days until the New Jersey and Virginia primaries: 7

Days until the TX-06 special election runoff: 56

Days until the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections and OH-11 and OH-15 special elections: 154

Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 525

Days until the 2024 election: 1,254

TopLine

Democratic congressional candidate Melanie Stansbury speaks during a campaign rally in Albuquerque, New Mexico.

Voters head to the polls today in New Mexico, where Democrat Melanie Stansbury faces Republican Mark Moores. | Susan Montoya Bryan/AP Photo

SOMETHING SPECIAL — We're getting an early look at the 2022 political environment today in New Mexico's 1st District, where Democrat Melanie Stansbury faces Republican Mark Moores. Democrats feel confident they will hold this deep-blue, Albuquerque-based seat; Joe Biden carried it by 23 points in the midterms, and former Democratic Rep. Deb Haaland (now the interior secretary) won by 17 points. But a close race could portend a tough midterm for the party. Polls close at 9 p.m. ET, and here's what we're watching for:

Is the "Defund the Police" hit still potent? Moores, a state senator, has centered his campaign on just one message: Stansbury wants to "defund" the police. Citing high crime rates in Albuquerque, he has zeroed in on her initial support for the BREATHE Act, a proposal written by activists that calls for the abolishment of ICE and Border Patrol and the emptying of federal prisons. Stansbury has walked back some of her endorsement of the proposal and run a TV ad with a law enforcement official praising her commitment to public safety, while also trying to sell a positive vision of economic recovery. But Moores' commitment to the attack is a sign it's not going away anytime soon, and this race could give us an indication of its efficacy. Check out more in my dispatch from the district.

Is Democratic enthusiasm waning? After a disappointing shutout in the special runoff for Texas's 6th District, House Democrats are eager to prove their base is still motivated. That loss was a far cry from those of the four years of the Trump era when Democrats saw juiced-up turnout and a flood of small-dollar donations. Still, Stansbury has some formidable advantages. Through mid-May, she had outraised Moores, $1.3 million to $600,000, and is spending significantly more money on TV ads. And early voting doesn't suggest an upset is looming. Of the nearly 94,000 early ballots cast, 58 percent were from registered Democrats, and 30 percent were from registered Republicans, according to the Roswell Daily Record's Alex Ross.

How tight is the margin? This will be the cleanest test of the midterms so far. The special last month in Texas was an all-party race with 23 candidates vying for two slots, while New Mexico's special pits a Democrat versus a Republican (plus a Libertarian and independent). The district does have some GOP DNA: Former Republican Rep. Heather Wilson held it for a decade before now-Sen. Martin Heinrich and now-Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, both Democrats. A small win for Democrats — in the low single-digits, for example — might be cause for panic. A blowout victory bodes well for their hopes of defying the historical odds for the midterms.

An upset loss would be catastrophic for a few reasons. Most importantly, Nancy Pelosi desperately needs the vote to pad her narrow majority. This would give her four to spare.

 

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Down the Ballot

EVERYTHING'S BIGGER IN TEXAS — Texas Democrats blocked a Republican-backed bill to increase restrictions on voting by walking out of a late-night state legislative session, the Texas Tribune's Alexa Ura reported. The election legislation would "create new limitations to early voting hours, ratchet up voting-by-mail restrictions and curb local voting options like drive-thru voting," and sparked tense debate between the two parties.

Republicans control both chambers of the legislature and the governor's office in Texas, so the bill had a good chance of passing. But when Democrats left the state House chamber on Sunday night, lawmakers did not have the necessary quorum to vote on the bill. Republicans had been touting the session as the "most conservative" yet, but killing the election bill put a damper on that label. The voting bill may not be totally dead — lawmakers may be called back for a special legislative session this summer.

RETREAD ALERT — Republican Wesley Hunt, a former Army helicopter pilot, announced Monday on Fox & Friends he would run for Congress again — but he told the Houston Chronicle's Jasper Scherer that he is waiting for the new lines to announce in which district he'll run. Hunt lost by about 3 points to Democratic Rep. Lizzie Fletcher in a Houston-area seat. Texas is gaining two seats in reapportionment.

THE BIG APPLE — The apparent front-runners in New York City's mayoral race are all moderate Democrats, The New York Times' Dana Rubinstein, Emma G. Fitzsimmons, Jazmine Hughes and Katie Glueck wrote, as progressives struggle to coalesce behind a single candidate. Businessperson Andrew Yang, Brooklyn borough president Eric Adams and former sanitation commissioner Kathryn Garcia make up the top tier of candidates in the race, Meanwhile, progressive Dianne Morales' campaign has fallen apart over the last week, and Morales called the conflict over working conditions "a beautiful and messy thing."

THE CASH DASH — Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis is flexing his fundraising power as Democrats flock to the primary race to run against him, Mediaite's Rudy Takala wrote. DeSantis raised $5.1 million in the first 25 days of May, brought in $14 million in April and has $31.6 million in cash on hand.

MARK YOUR CALENDAR — Nevada is making a play to be the first state to vote in the 2024 presidential primary, the Associated Press' Michelle Price and Sam Metz wrote. State lawmakers sent a bill to Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak's desk on Monday that would put Nevada ahead of Iowa and New Hampshire in the nominating timeline, a move that's sure to cause some early-state drama.

— Lawmakers in Illinois are considering moving the state's primary to June, POLITICO Illinois Playbook's Shia Kapos scooped on Friday. The delay in redistricting data, which won't be available until August, means lawmakers can't yet redraw congressional districts. That's made it nearly impossible for congressional races in states with early primaries to proceed. The new primary date could be June 28.

THE BUCKEYE STATE — Three fundraisers resigned from Republican Josh Mandel's Senate campaign in Ohio, The Columbus Dispatch's Laura Bischoff and Haley BeMiller reported. The shakeup sparked questions about the strength of Mandel's money-raising operation in the crowded GOP primary.

ON THE AIRWAVES — Indivisible is running Spanish radio ads in the California Central Valley . The ads began on Memorial Day and are "aimed at informing the Spanish speaking community about the benefits included in the American Rescue Plan," including $1,400 stimulus checks and extended unemployment assistance.

FIRST IN SCORE: MIDTERM STRATEGY — People's Action, a progressive group, is launching its midterm election strategy today. The group will recruit candidates to run against Republicans in more than a dozen states, including in the Missouri, Iowa, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania Senate races, the gubernatorial races in New Hampshire and Arizona and House races all over the map. People's Action touts its "deep canvassing" method to speak with and convince voters.

"Democrats backed themselves into a corner a long time ago when they began sacrificing bold action for marginal wins," People's Action Movement Politics Director Brooke Adams said in a statement. "Our 2022 strategy will finally kick this habit."

THE PROCESS — Arizona's Republican-led state Senate may green-light a second election "audit" in Maricopa County, The Arizona Republic's Jen Fifield and Robert Anglen reported. "The effort would expand the ongoing audit and is expected to use a new and largely untested technology," Fifield and Anglen wrote. The process would entail counting the 2.1 million ballots by running digital images through a program, rather than the hand-count occurring now. State Senate lawmakers are speaking with the California-based election transparency nonprofit Citizens Oversight, which has never been hired to audit an election nor used its technology in an official election audit.

— New Hampshire's election audit wrapped up last week. "A forensic audit of automated vote counting machines in Windham revealed no evidence of fraud or tampering with those devices," the Union Leader's Kevin Landrigan reported. Instead, folds in absentee ballots were a partial cause of the discrepancy, auditors concluded. The audit had been focused on a local election, not the presidential election, but piqued former President Donald Trump's interest.

MIDTERM MESSAGING — House Democrats are wary of adopting a Trump-centric strategy for the 2022 midterms with their majority at risk, according to POLITICO's Sarah Ferris and Melanie Zanona. Some are already preparing to pivot away from the former president and lean on the policy-heavy playbook of 2018 that worked so well.

MURPHY'S LAW — Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy was elected with the help of liberal activists, but the reformer is at odds with his progressive base now that he's up for reelection and operating within New Jersey's system of political machines and party bosses, POLITICO's Matt Friedman wrote. One of the most obvious examples is Murphy's support for the state's ballot system, which puts party-endorsed candidates in a central position and flings challengers off to "ballot Siberia." Still, progressives hope Murphy's embrace of old-school New Jersey politicking is for convenience and will wear off when the election is over. Murphy is running unopposed in next week's gubernatorial primary.

NOTABLE FLOATABLES — Republican Katie Boyd Britt is expected to jump into the Alabama Senate race, and is seen as an alternative to the Trump-endorsed Mo Brooks, CNN's Alex Rogers and Manu Raju reported. Britt is the president and CEO of the Business Council of Alabama, and served as chief of staff to retiring Sen. Richard Shelby.

— President Donald Trump plans to endorse former Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke, a Republican running for the House in Montana , Insider's Kimberly Leonard wrote. According to Zinke, Trump told him to "run and I'll endorse you." Zinke previously served in Congress before Trump tapped him for an administration post. Montana is gaining a second seat in reapportionment.

VOTE COUNT — Before the Senate left for the long weekend, lawmakers voted down a proposal to create a commission to look into the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. POLITICO's Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine have more. Four of the five Senate Republicans retiring next year skipped the vote, though Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey said he would have voted in favor if he were there. Retiring Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) voted for the commission, while Democrats who did not vote were Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and Washington Sen. Patty Murray.

THE LOCAL ANGLE — The mayoral race shaping up in Lima, Ohio is "tinged with battleground-state political dynamics," the Toledo Blade's Liz Skalka wrote. The city's longtime mayor is retiring and two women are running to lead Lima, which is experiencing a spike in crime, population loss and a quarter of the city below the poverty line. Lima used to be a reliably Democratic city, but has leaned to the right in recent years — Hillary Clinton barely won the city in 2016, and Trump won it in 2020.

 

SUBSCRIBE TO WEST WING PLAYBOOK: Add West Wing Playbook to keep up with the power players, latest policy developments and intriguing whispers percolating inside the West Wing and across the highest levels of the Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 
Presidential Big Board

LEADING THE PARTY — Next year's midterm races are turning into a proxy war between 2024 presidential hopefuls, POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt wrote. Republican would-be candidates are trying to get a headstart on their own contest by currying favor with lawmakers, donors and voters in House, Senate and governors' races all over the map.

It's also a way to lay the groundwork for a presidential run without upsetting Trump, who is signaling he may run for president for a third time. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) is heading to Iowa to campaign for House Republicans this summer. Here are a few other trips of note: "Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo headlined a Tuesday evening fundraiser for the National Republican Congressional Committee. Ex-U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has endorsed a handful of female candidates and hosted receptions for newly elected GOP women in the House. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is backing a trio of conservative House candidates, including one for whom he's cut a direct-to-camera video."

HOT MIC — Republicans are eager to appear on Steve Bannon's far-right podcast, "War Room: Pandemic," NBC's Henry Gomez and Allan Smith wrote. "Ambitious Republicans are flocking there for the chance to demonstrate loyalty to Bannon's former boss and pitch themselves to Trump's voters — and, more indirectly, to Trump himself," especially as Trump's most devoted supporters stray from Fox News. Bannon's recent guests include New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, who replaced Rep. Liz Cheney in leadership; and former Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens, who is running for Senate.

— Speaking of Trump loyalty, the new America Strong PAC is spending cash to punish Republicans who voted for impeachment, Axios' Lachlan Markay reported. The group plans to buy broadcast and digital ads targeting the 10 House Republicans who voted for impeachment, including Cheney. Jack Mantua, who worked on the Trump campaign, is the PAC's treasurer, and a big-dollar Trump donor is lining up support for the effort.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY — "The action that took place was an irresponsible, self-serving political stunt" — Idaho Gov. Brad Little, repealing Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin's executive order to ban mask mandates that she put in place while he was out of state, per the Idaho Statesman. McGeachin has announced her intention to challenge Little in the GOP primary next year.

 

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