We Did it: What to expect for the Republican convention — Inside Democrats’ vote-by-mail strategy — TX-23 Republican runoff finally comes to an end

Aug 24, 2020

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Quick Fix

— The Republican convention kicks off tonight, and the entire Trump family is set to take center stage. Here's what to watch for.

— Last week's Democratic convention marked the unofficial kickoff of a massive, two-pronged campaign for voting by mail within the party: a changing GOTV effort, and a countrywide legal fight.

— The GOP primary runoff in the battleground TX-23 has finally come to an end, with Tony Gonzales coming away the victor after more than a month of uncertainty.

Good Monday morning. Not elections-related per se, but my colleagues John Bresnahan and Marianne LeVine have a deep profile of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer that is well worth your time. Give it a read. You can email me at zmontellaro@politico.com and follow me on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the rest of the POLITICO campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @JamesArkin and @allymutnick.

Days until the OK-05 GOP runoff: 1

Days until the Massachusetts primary: 8

Days until the New Hampshire and Rhode Island primaries: 15

Days until the 2020 election: 71

TopLine

CONVENTION SPOTTING — The Republican convention kicks off today, after organizers scrambled to convene a largely virtual event that has shifted dramatically over the course of the last month. Unlike the Democratic convention, there will still be some in-person aspects: Delegates will meet this morning in Charlotte, N.C. (the original host city), to formally nominate President Donald Trump for reelection (here's more from The Charlotte Observer's Jim Morrill), with much of the rest of the convention expected to emanate from Washington, with Trump giving his acceptance speech from the White House on Thursday. The convention is expected to be a mix of live and pre-taped programming.

Unlike the 2016 convention, this gathering will be all Trump, all the time. A speakers' lineup released by the Trump campaign has First Lady Melania Trump and all of his children speaking throughout the week — save for his teenage son — along with his two adult sons' significant others. The president himself is expected to make an appearance today in Charlotte, POLITICO's Quint Forgey and Anita Kumar reported, the first of what is supposed to be a daily appearance for the president at the convention. Tonight's lineup is heavy on Republican meta-stars that may be unfamiliar to a general audience: Charlie Kirk, a close Trump ally and founder of Turning Point USA; Kim Klacik, the Republican nominee in the deep blue MD-07 who got smoked in the special election and is running again in November; and Mark and Patricia McCloskey, the couple in St. Louis who brandished their guns at protesters on their street, are all set to speak on the first night.

The president himself has been closely involved in the planning of the convention, POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reported. Trump had the ultimate sign-off on the speaker's list, and pushed to give close allies like Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) coveted speaking spots. (It is relatively thin on Republicans in competitive downballot races, including just a handful, like Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst and the party-switching Rep. Jeff Van Drew in NJ-02, along with battleground challengers like Burgess Owens in UT-04 and Sean Parnell in PA-17.) Other big speakers include Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (who, according to Axios' Jonathan Swan, is expected to deliver his remarks from Israel); Sens. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.); Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley.

Another major difference with the Republican convention: Programming is starting at 8:30 p.m. Eastern, as opposed to the 9 p.m. start time Democrats' had (though that sometimes crept earlier — and ended after 11). The tone of the convention is also up in the air. "While Republicans are certain to blast Biden over the next week," Alex wrote, "Trump privately derided the Democratic convention as overly gloomy and has expressed a desire for his program to be more upbeat." (We'll see if that actually holds; As my POLITICO Playbook colleagues Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman noted, Trump has painted an apocalyptic picture of what a Biden presidency would look like as of late, and we are in the middle of a historic pandemic that has left over 176,000 Americans dead.) Head to POLITICO around the start of the convention for our reporters' live analysis.

— By and large, most Republican politicians and operatives are really in the dark about this week's convention. "It's like planning a wedding and having to move at the last minute, and all that can go wrong or right in something like this," former Rep. Lou Barletta (R-Pa.) told POLITICO's Nancy Cook. "But I'm sure they'll have everything worked out. I don't really know what the rest of the week will look like as far as programming."

INTRODUCING POLITICO MINUTES: These unprecedented times demand an unconventional approach to political news coverage. POLITICO Minutes is a new, interactive content experience that delivers the top takeaways you need to know in an easy-to-digest, swipeable format straight to your inbox. Get a breakdown of what we've learned so far, why it matters and what to watch for going forward. Sign up for POLITICO Minutes, launching at the 2020 Conventions.

Presidential Big Board

MAILING IT IN — Democrats are undertaking a massive, two-pronged vote-by-mail strategy: A get-out-the-vote campaign that's rapidly evolving to help voters navigate the somewhat difficult mail-in process, and an extensive legal campaign looking to loosen laws across the country. The effort is going to cost Democrats tens-of-millions of dollars (if not more), I reported with Elena Schneider, which saw its unofficial kickoff with an extensive push during the Democratic National Convention for voters to make a plan. The GOTV campaign, in particular, is a big shift from Democrats: They're still shying away from door-knocking, and focusing more-and-more on digital outreach. Our story is a deep dive that includes interviews with over a dozen Democratic operatives within the Biden campaign, in key battleground states and in free-spending outside groups, along with an interview with the mastermind of the Democrats' legal strategy Marc Elias, please give it a read.

THE PROCESS — At least 558,000 mail-in ballots have been rejected throughout the 2020 primary season, NPR's Pam Fessler and Elena Moore reported, surpassing the roughly 319,000 ballots that were tossed in the 2016 general election. (A big chunk of those rejected ballots came from California and New York, but even in battleground states tens of thousands of primary ballots were rejected.)

— A federal judge paused a lawsuit from the Trump campaign in Pennsylvania that sought to ban ballot drop boxes (along with other changes), WHYY's Emly Previti reported. District Court Judge J. Nicholas Ranjan's ruling "says the federal case won't move forward until similar lawsuits in Pennsylvania state courts conclude or unless they're delayed."

— Trump's recent suggestion that law enforcement officers will patrol polling places, a historical voter intimidation tactic, is the president's latest attempts at bending the mechanics of the election in his favor, The Washington Post's Rosalind S. Helderman, Josh Dawsey and Matt Zapotosky wrote.

— An unacceptable barrier election administrators are now dealing with: death threats. ProPublica's Jessica Huseman reported that, "across the country, election administrators and their staffs are facing unprecedented attacks, much of it from outside their jurisdictions, from both left- and right-wing voters and activists."

ON THE ROAD AGAIN — Trump will return to New Hampshire on Friday to deliver remarks at an airport hangar, WMUR's John DiStaso reported, and the event will mandate mask-wearing.

DEBATE DEBATES — The Commission on Presidential Debates is declining to get involved with the Trump campaign's push for a fourth debate, POLITICO's Chris Cadelago reported.

CONVENTION COUNTERPROGRAMMING — Democrats will try to counterprogram the GOP convention, with new ads, briefings and virtual events in battleground states, CNN's Dan Merica and Sarah Mucha wrote.

POLLS POLLS POLLS — A snap poll from CBS News/YouGov shows no movement following the Democratic convention. The poll, which recontacted voters who had been interviewed prior to the convention, found Biden at 52 percent to 42 percent for Trump — the same margin as a pre-convention poll (934 likely voters; Aug. 20-22; +/- 3.7 percentage point MoE).

ON THE AIRWAVES — Biden's campaign is up with a new ad attacking Trump over him calling for a boycott of Goodyear Tires. The ads — which have similar versions airing in North Carolina and Ohio — say Trump would "risk American jobs to try to save his own."

— America First Action, the pro-Trump super PAC, put out a new ad in Wisconsin criticizing Biden over taxes, saying he'll "raise your taxes."

— Priorities USA Action, the major pro-Biden super PAC, is out with a pair of new ads running in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona. One ad has a nurse saying Trump is not listening to experts on calling for schools to reopen; a second ad compares Trump's coronavirus response to "watching a slow-motion car wreck" before promoting Biden.

PLATFORM? WHAT PLATFORM? — The Republican National Convention officially did not adopt a new platform, passing a resolution blasting the media and also saying it "enthusiastically supports President Trump and continues to reject the policy positions of the Obama-Biden administration." The Trump campaign did announce his second term agenda, comprised of roughly 50 bullet points.

THE TICKET — Biden and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) had their first joint interview as a ticket with ABC News' David Muir and Robin Roberts, the subject of a primetime special on Sunday. Nothing was incredibly newsy, but a few interesting tidbits: Harris deflected when asked about her past criticism of Biden during the primary and praised Biden (here's the coverage), Biden said nobody making less than $400,000 will see their taxes raised ( more from ABC) and Harris tried to close any daylight between her and Biden on health care. Here's the full transcript from the Muir portion, and here's the transcript of the Roberts interview.

YEEZUS IN CHIEF? — Kanye West was given the boot from the November ballot in another battleground state: Ohio. New York magazine's Ben Jacobs has more on the rapper's campaign, which is "both proceeding and unraveling" and also apparently signing up unwitting people to be his actual Electoral College electors.

PREGAME THE PRIME-TIME RNC LINEUP WITH FOUR SQUARE : This isn't quite how we predicted the GOP convention would look back in January, but here we are. Time to make the most of it! Join Four Square host Eugene Daniels and top political journalists Tim Alberta, Laura Barrón-López and Ryan Lizza throughout convention week for a breakdown of the day's most significant political developments and the buzz surrounding the convention. Watch it live here.

Down the Ballot

FINALLY OVER — The long Republican primary runoff in TX-23 appears to be finally over. Just a few dozen votes separated Gonzales and Raul Reyes in the July 14 runoff in the open battleground seat, leaving the pair locked in a bitter recount. On Friday, Reyes announced he was abandoning the recount effort, giving the win to Gonzales, The Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek reported. Gonzales will face Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones, who only narrowly lost to retiring GOP Rep. Will Hurd in 2018.

GOING POSTAL — The House passed legislation on Saturday to give the USPS $25 billion in additional funding and mandate priority processing for election mail, POLITICO's Heather Caygle and Sarah Ferris reported. The bill passed with every Democrat backing the bill (save for retiring Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, who did not vote), and 26 Republicans joining their Democratic colleagues to vote in favor of the bill. The legislation is likely to go nowhere in the Senate, however. Trump urged a no vote on the bill (again tying the push to mail-voting), McConnell has dismissed the bill and White House chief of staff Mark Meadows on "Fox News Sunday" derided the effort as a "largely messaging bill" that's "going absolutely nowhere," POLITICO's Nolan McCaskill wrote.

— USPS Postmaster General Louis DeJoy is scheduled to testify today at 10 a.m. in front of the House Oversight Committee, after Democrats on the panel over the weekend released a USPS presentation showing a slowdown in the mail as of late. His testimony follows an appearance Friday before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. At the Friday hearing, DeJoy said the USPS was committed to delivering 95 percent of election mail within 1-3 days, a benchmark from last cycle, and also said the Postal Service would send out a letter in September to all Americans detailing election-related processes. (Here's my thread of more election-related takeaways from Friday.) POLITICO's Andrew Desiderio, Marianne LeVine and Daniel Lippman have more from the hearing.

ON THE AIRWAVES — Some weekend ads.

— MT-Sen: GOP Gov. Steve Daines released an ad with his two daughters talking about him and their families, praising his various policy positions. (And that he knows the best place to get ice cream in the state.) The NRSC is out with its latest ad in the state, criticizing Montana Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock's "covid task force" as being packed with campaign donors.

— MI-Sen: Republican John James is out with an ad calling Democratic Sen. Gary Peters the "invisible man," criticizing him for not showing up for the state.

— SC-Sen: Democrat Jaime Harrison released an ad with a self-described former supporter of GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham criticizing him.

— MT-AL: Democrat Kathleen WIlliams released an ad with her gutting a fish, saying "in Montana, you either embrace our way of life or get out of our way."

— KY-06: GOP Rep. Andy Barr released an ad talking about the recent death of his wife, thanking people for "the outpouring of love and support during this difficult time."

— NJ-03: Freshman Democratic Rep. Andy Kim has an ad with Kim talking to local business owners on how they're working through the pandemic.

— NY-24: GOP Rep. John Katko is out with an ad that features Biden's criticism of Medicare for All from the primary debates earlier in the cycle, calling it Democrat Dana Balter's "radical health care plan." Balter released an ad with people who say they previously backed Katko criticizing him.

— OR-04: Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio released an ad criticizing Republican Alek Skarlatos over health care, saying he supported Trump's "failed leadership" during the pandemic. Skarlatos is also up with a new ad, a positive bio spot that focuses on his military service and thwarting a terror attack on a Paris-bound train in 2015.

— TX-23: Jones is out with a new ad highlighting a variety of policy goals she wants, including "strong national security," expanding broadband and more.

— WA-03: GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler released an ad with local business-people praising her for helping prevent layoffs during the pandemic.

COUNTING HEADS — The Census Bureau says that just over three-quarters of American households have now responded to the census, as of Saturday, with the count scheduled to end at the end of next month. Just over 64 percent have self-responded, and an additional 11.3 percent were contacted by census workers for non-responsive followups.

PRIMARY PROBLEMS — If you haven't been following the beat-by-beat of the saga in MA-01 — where a group of college Democrats leveled vague accusations against Alex Morse, who is primarying Democratic Rep. Richie Neal, which the reporting of The Intercept showed involved some high-level scheming behind the scenes — The New York Times' Jeremy Peters has a good story detailing the race.

(NOT SO?) DARK MONEY — The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld a lower court's ruling that found the FEC's regulations on donor disclosures for dark money groups were too weak, POLITICO's Josh Gerstein reported. (The rules allow "nonprofit" groups, commonly known as dark money groups, to spend pretty much freely without disclosing their donors.) The ruling will still ultimately result in plenty of anonymous giving.

OUR BAD — In an internal poll provided to Campaign Pro last week from Democrat Nancy Goroff, who is challenging GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin in NY-01, we accidentally flipped the presidential margin in the district. The poll from Global Strategy Group (which was in last Tuesday's Score ) had Biden at 46 percent and Trump at 42 percent. Sorry, our bad!

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "'I don't know what happened,' [GOP Rep. Chris] Jacobs said. Noting that he might have been distracted during the vote, he added: 'I must've hit the wrong button.'" — Jacobs on his vote against the USPS bill over the weekend, even though he supported it, to The Buffalo News.

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