Monday, August 3, 2020

Who will deliver Democrats’ convention keynote? — Biden running-mate search enters final stretch — GOP frets about Kansas Senate primary

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Aug 03, 2020 View in browser
 
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By Steven Shepard

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Quick Fix

— The convention keynote slot has been a launching pad for Democratic rising stars. We asked a few dozen party operatives whom they'd like to see get the coveted platform later this month.

— Former Vice President Joe Biden has entered the final stages of his running mate search, but there are still questions about how the last interviews will be conducted and when the pick will be announced.

— A packed week of primaries kicks off Tuesday in five states, including Kansas, where Republicans are dreading the possibility that Kris Kobach could win the party's nod for an open Senate seat.

Good Monday morning. Zach Montellaro is off this week, but you're in the capable hands of the rest of the POLITICO campaigns team. Email us at sshepard@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com . Follow us on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @JamesArkin and @allymutnick.

Days until the Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington primaries: 1

Days until the Tennessee primary: 3

Days until the Hawaii primary: 5

Days until the Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin primaries and Georgia primary runoffs: 8

Days until the Democratic convention: 14

Days until the Republican convention: 21

Days until the 2020 election: 92

 

HAPPENING 8/4 @ 10 a.m. EDT - ECONOMIC RECOVERY IN THE MIDST OF A PANDEMIC: The coronavirus has caused a record-setting economic decline and tens millions of Americans have lost their jobs. Join POLITICO chief economic correspondent Ben White for an interview with LinkedIn chief economist Karin Kimbrough to discuss prospects for economic growth, the uptick in jobless claims after weeks of decline and how extending unemployment benefits could help in the economic recovery. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
TopLine

KEYNOTE FLOAT — It's the second most consequential choice Biden and the Democratic Party have to make over the next two weeks: Who will deliver the keynote address at the virtual convention 15 days from today?

The keynote has traditionally been a platform for the party's top prospects — and future presidential candidates: Elizabeth Warren delivered a Monday keynote in 2016 (introduced by Joe Kennedy, who is now vying to serve with her in the Senate). Julián Castro was the pick for the 2012 convention in Charlotte, N.C. And Barack Obama's 2004 speech in Boston catapulted the then-Senate candidate into the national consciousness.

So who do Democrats want to see speak on Tuesday, Aug. 18? Score posed the question to a wide array of Democratic operatives and strategists to solicit their choices under a promise of anonymity to guard against any bruised feelings. There wasn't a lot of consensus among the responses we received, but here's what we heard:

A lot depends on Biden's pick for his running mate, but multiple Democrats mentioned Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, former Georgia state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams and Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.) — three Black women who have also been considered to join the ticket. In fact, the majority of the suggestions we got were women and racial minorities.

One party operative said Abrams "represents the future of the Democratic Party and the source of its energy: women, and women of color in particular." Another strategist called Lance Bottoms "an up-and-coming leader who has dealt with our two great challenges this year: the impact of Covid (continued to lead while testing positive) and the pain, outcry and protests — both peaceful and not — in the aftermath of George Floyd's murder." A Democrat said Demings, the former Orlando, Fla., police chief, has "one hell of a story and ... a magnetic personality. Plus, she's from a place that is kinda important."

We received multiple nominations for Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). One Democrat called her "probably the most singularly effective communicator in the Democratic Party in 2020," though she would bring more name ID (and higher negatives) to the role.

With prospects reportedly dimming that Biden will pick a governor, we also heard from Democrats who suggested Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham and Colorado Gov. Jared Polis . "There is no more powerful contrast on stability than between what Democratic governance would look like during the pandemic — as embodied by the Dem[ocratic] governors — versus what Trump looks like," one operative said.

Others receiving votes: Pete Buttigieg; Reps. Deb Haaland (D-N.M.), Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Lucy McBath (D-Ga.); Georgia Senate candidate/pastor Rev. Raphael Warnock; Michigan Lt. Gov. Gavin Gilchrist; Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti; Kentucky state Rep. Charles Booker; New York congressional nominees Ritchie Torres and Jamaal Bowman; attorney Bryan Stevenson; Minneapolis city Councilors Andrea Jenkins and Phillipe Cunningham.

Presidential Big Board

THE VEEPSTAKES — It's down to the wire for the Biden campaign's search for a running mate. POLITICO's Natasha Korecki and Chris Cadelago: "At least some of the contenders were in the dark on Sunday about their upcoming interviews with Biden: They were told to be prepared for in-person sit-downs while at the same time cautioned that could change due to health and logistical concerns surrounding Covid-19. … Amid the uncertainty, short-listers have adopted competing strategies, with several lesser-known candidates taking to TV news shows to raise their profiles while more prominent contenders such as Kamala Harris and ... Warren remain out of the spotlight."

— Harris' allies "sought and received a meeting with ... Biden's campaign staff this week after a leader of his vice presidential vetting team was quoted doubting whether she'd be a loyal No. 2.," Chris and Natasha reported Friday night. "Prominent supporters of the California senator asked for the virtual sit-down on the heels of a POLITICO report [last] Monday that Harris is not a lock for VP. It quoted former Sen. Chris Dodd, one of four members of the vetting unit, remarking to a prominent Democratic donor that Harris had 'no remorse' for attacking Biden during a debate last year.

— The past 72 hours have been perhaps Rep. Karen Bass' toughest news cycle: On Saturday, Bass "sought to clarify remarks she made in 2010 praising the Church of Scientology," POLITICO's Evan Semones reported. Also on Saturday, the Trump campaign in Florida, including GOP Sen. Marco Rubio, pummeled Bass as a "Castro sympathizer" for her past travel to Cuba and comments about Fidel Castro's regime, POLITICO Florida's Matt Dixon reported.

By Sunday, Bass was entirely walking back her 2016 comments upon Castro's death. "I absolutely would have not put that statement out" now, Bass told "Fox News Sunday," according to POLITICO's Zach Warmbrodt.

THE BATTLEGROUND MAP — POLITICO's Holly Otterbein, our Philly-based politics reporter , has a deep dive into the state of play in the commonwealth of Pennsylvania: "Senior citizens and suburban voters are sinking President Donald Trump's campaign across the country But here in Pennsylvania — home to one of the largest populations of residents age 65 or older and where suburbanites comprise more than half of the electorate — their defection to Joe Biden is hurting Trump even more acutely."

— New CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker polls show tight races in two southern states. In North Carolina (July 28-31; 1,152 registered voters; +/- 3.8 percentage points), Biden leads Trump, 48 percent to 44 percent. In Georgia (July 28-31; 1,131 registered voters; +/- 3.4 percentage points), Biden leads Trump, 46 percent to 45 percent.

— It's getting late early for Trump, POLITICO's David Siders writes today. "While there are still 92 days until Election Day, the president has as little as half as much time to begin closing the gap with Joe Biden, according to interviews with nearly two dozen Republican and Democratic Party officials and strategists. … Voters will begin receiving ballots in key swing states as early as next month. In North Carolina, elections officials will start sending ballots to voters on Sept. 4. Four more battleground states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida and Minnesota — will begin mailing ballots or start early voting by the end of September.

ON THE WEB — "Two Democratic PACS are using footage of recent police violence against protesters, President Donald Trump's past comments about Black voters, and images of mass coronavirus graves in new ads aimed at persuading Black voters," POLITICO's Laura Barrón-López reports. "Priorities USA and Color of Change PAC are set to launch five new digital ads — three of them on Monday — in a roughly half-million-dollar buy. It's part of a larger, $3.4 million persuasion effort focused on Black voters that the two groups are running through the election in Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania."

RULES OF THE ROAD — Among all the problems facing elections administrators this year, there may be no more pressing need than people, your usual host, Zach Montellaro, reported last week. "Election officials across the country are seeing early shortages and scrambling to recruit a new generation of poll workers for Election Day, looking to maintain a volunteer force that has relied heavily on senior citizens in the past — the cohort most vulnerable to the coronavirus. … 'We need 39,870 people for Election Day and early voting, and we don't have anywhere near that. We have 13,021 vacant positions, [about] 32 percent statewide,' said David Garreis, the president of the Maryland Association of Election Officials.

The New York Times' Ben Smith devotes his weekly media column to the problems facing news organizations around the incomplete vote totals expected on Election Night: "I spoke last week to executives, TV hosts and election analysts across leading American newsrooms, and I was struck by the blithe confidence among some top managers and hosts, who generally said they've handled complicated elections before and can do so again. And I was alarmed by the near panic among some of the people paying the closest attention — the analysts and producers trying, and often failing, to get answers from state election officials about how and when they will count the ballots and report results."

— Nevada's Democratic-controlled state legislature approved measures this weekend expanding mail balloting. Democrats "stressed that it was important to expand options for people to participate safely without leaving their homes or standing in line" and noted that the state's health metrics were worsening," The Nevada Independent's Riley Snyder and Michelle Rindels reported. Republicans opposed the measure, arguing "that voters can already choose to vote by mail if they request an absentee" ballot.

 

EVERYTHING HAS CHANGED: Policy professionals' work has drastically changed since the outbreak of Covid-19. Read what 700+ policy professionals had to say about this "new normal" in POLITICO Pro's 2020 Policy Insider's Report: "Policymaking during a Pandemic."

 
 
Down the Ballot

ALL ABOUT TUESDAY — Our full primary preview is coming tomorrow, but check out these two POLITICO deep dives into some of the most consequential races:

— Republicans are increasingly concerned about the Kansas Senate primary, POLITICO's James Arkin writes. Rep. Roger Marshall "was leading Kobach comfortably in internal polling earlier in the summer. But after nearly $5 million was dumped in by a super PAC with ties to Democrats to elevate Kobach and bash Marshall's image, Republicans acknowledge that the primary is a dead heat" — despite the belief that Kobach would struggle to win the general election.

— Rep. Lacy Clay (D-Mo.) is facing a rematch against liberal challenger Cori Bush that has angered the Congressional Black Caucus, whose members have already turned away progressive opponents in Ohio and New York. POLITICO's Ally Mutnick and Laura Barrón-López : "Clay and his allies feel confident of victory, particularly because he dispatched Bush by a 20-point margin last cycle. But Bush's operation is now better funded, more organized and has a formidable coalition of supporters."

THE PROCESS — A note of caution about tomorrow's primary in Kansas: Secretary of State Scott Schwab is warning against over-interpreting election-night results since absentee ballots will count if they are postmarked in time and arrive by Friday, via the Kansas City Star.

PRIMARY PROBLEMS — Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) is facing a well-funded Democratic challenge from attorney Antone Melton-Meaux, though she's still a favorite next week in Minnesota. POLITICO's Max Cohen : "Facing a political newcomer who raised a jaw-dropping $3.2 million last quarter — much of it from pro-Israel donors who oppose Omar's foreign policy stances — Omar suddenly finds herself on the defensive against claims that she's too divisive to effectively represent the solidly Democratic district."

— Kennedy is getting some outside help for his primary challenge against Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.): New Leadership PAC, a pro-Kennedy super PAC, "has reserved close to $1.6 million in airtime" starting next week and running through the Sept. 1 primary, the Boston Globe's Victoria McGrane reports.

RECOUNT! — Republican Raul Reyes is seeking a recount in last month's TX-23 GOP primary runoff after finishing narrowly behind the Trump-endorsed candidate, Tony Gonzales. The Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek reports that Reyes' campaign claims he trails Gonzales by 45 votes.

THE SENATE MAP — Tennessee Republican Bill Hagerty went up with a new ad on Saturday, five days before this Thursday's primary. In the 30-second spot, he continues to mispronounce the last name of his chief opponent, physician Manny Sethi, as POLITICO's Alex Thompson and James Arkin reported last week.

— Meanwhile, former Rep. Zach Wamp (R-Tenn.) set off a surrogate war of words over the weekend, when Wamp — who has endorsed Sethi — suggested on Twitter that Hagerty "hires young girls to show up in short shorts" to appeal to voters. He later deleted the tweet, but not before he was hit by Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), a Hagerty supporter, TheChattanoogan.com reported.

— Those CBS News/YouGov polls also had Senate numbers. In North Carolina, Democrat Cal Cunningham led GOP Sen. Thom Tillis, 48 percent to 39 percent — the second poll in the past seven days to show Cunningham ahead by 9 points. In Georgia, GOP Sen. David Perdue led Democrat Jon Ossoff, 45 percent to 43 percent.

— In Georgia, Ossoff's campaign says it has raised more than $1 million in less than a week, after Perdue's campaign pulled a digital ad that appeared to enlarge Ossoff's nose (Ossoff is Jewish).

FIRST IN SCORE — BIG SKY SHOWDOWN — RGA Right Direction PAC, the Republican Governors Association's outside spending vehicle, is ramping up its activity in Montana, launching a negative barrage against Democratic Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney. RGA Right Direction PAC says it is starting "a new statewide television, radio, and digital ad campaign" hitting Cooney on the economy and his political career. A draft release included links to two radio spots.

THE GOVERNATORS — The National Education Association's New Hampshire chapter has "recommended" Executive Councilor Andru Volinsky in the state's Democratic gubernatorial primary. WMUR-TV's John DiStaso: "NEA-NH does not formally 'endorse' candidates, but instead 'recommends' them to its 17,000 members and the voters. Volinsky secured the recommendation over fellow Democratic gubernatorial candidate and state Senate Majority Leader Dan Feltes."

TECH TALK — Adobe has becoming the latest tech company to ban political advertising on its platform, Zach and Leah Nylen reported , announcing it will no longer allow political ads starting at the end of this month because it "no longer aligns to our Ad Cloud business goals." And while Adobe is nowhere near the same size as a Facebook or a Google in political advertising, this still rankled some digital operatives. "They are pulling the rug out from underneath these companies less than 100 days before the election," said Mark Jablonowski, the CTO of the Democratic firm DSPolitical. "Declaring certain platforms off-limits for political advertising doesn't help voters — it helps candidates with baked-in advantages."

CODA — WHAT-WE'RE-MISSING OF DAY: Saturday was the annual Fancy Farm Picnic in West Kentucky, but the political speaking program was canceled this year due to the coronavirus. Democratic Senate nominee Amy McGrath on Saturday "told a reporter she didn't realize the canceled speeches would have been this weekend," per AP.

 

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