We Did it: The dates to know for the potential Newsom recall — Walls closing in around Cuomo — Virginia Republican Party lands on multiple convention sites

Mar 15, 2021

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Quick Fix

— Organizers trying to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom have a key deadline on Wednesday coming up. Here's what to expect going forward.

— The walls are closing in around New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, with the majority of the state's congressional delegation (including both senators) calling on the Democrat to resign.

— After months of tumult, the Virginia Republican Party has apparently settled on the process for how it will nominate its statewide candidates for the 2021 election.

Good Monday morning. A real gubernatorial-heavy newsletter for everyone today. Email me at zmontellaro@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @JamesArkin and @allymutnick.

Days until the LA-02 and LA-05 special elections: 5

Days until the TX-06 special election: 47

Days until the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections: 232

Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 603

Days until the 2024 election: 1,331

TopLine

California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks during a news conference in Los Angeles, Calif.

Jae C. Hong/AP Photo

GOLDEN STATE — This week is a big one in the campaign to recall Newsom, the first-term Democratic governor of California: Wednesday is the deadline for when signatures can be gathered by organizers. To recall a governor, just under 1.5 million signatures need to be submitted and validated by elections officials in the state.

Organizers of the recall effort announced last week that they had gathered over 2 million signatures, but they still need to be validated by local election officials, and there will naturally be some rejected. As of the last official update in mid-February, officials had validated over 668,000 signatures, POLITICO California's Jeremy B. White wrote at the time, with a relatively high 84 percent validity rate. The next validation update is on Thursday and would give a bit clearer of a picture on if there will be enough valid signatures, but organizers of the recall are confident that they will ultimately have the numbers.

But even then, that doesn't necessarily mean it is all things go for the recall. According to a calendar shared with Score by the fine folks at California Target Book, the California secretary of state has to notify counties by May 9 on if enough signatures have been verified to proceed. This triggers a month-and-a-half-long period where people could remove their signatures from the recall drive if they'd like — look for a possible mobilization effort around that process, especially if the recall clears the 1.5 million threshold only barely — and election officials must then re-ascertain if there are still enough valid signatures by early July. Budget estimates happen from July through September in the calendar laid out by Target Book, with a candidate-filing deadline in either late September or early October and a potential recall in mid-to-late November.

Let's play out for a moment what the ballot would look like, should the recall qualify. It would be a two-parter: The first question would ask if Newsom should be recalled, while the second would be who should succeed him if he is (Newsom isn't eligible to be a candidate on that ballot) . If a majority votes against a recall in the first question, it is all over. But if a recall prevails, whichever candidate has a plurality on the second question will be California's next governor. The barrier to get on the ballot as a candidate is, however, ludicrously low. There were well over 100 candidates on the ballot for the ultimately successful 2003 recall of Democratic Gov. Gray Davis, with Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger winning just under 49 percent of the vote on the second question.

Newsom spent a long time not talking about the recall, but obliquely referenced it as his State of the State speech last week (held at Dodgers Stadium). Democrats are all seemingly rowing in the same direction on the recall, with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) blasting the recall last week, a signal to his supporters to stand with Newsom. And with no clear-cut frontrunner, Republicans have started infighting. Our entire POLITICO California bureau will be all over the recall effort, but I also recommend you subscribe to Carla Marinucci and Jeremy's California Playbook to get the daily latest on the effort (and everything else in the Golden State).

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Down the Ballot

Gov. Andrew Cuomo, pictured speaking at a Feb. 22 news conference in Brooklyn, described calls for his resignation as thinly veiled opportunism.

Seth Wenig/AP Photo

ON THE ROPES? — The walls continue to close in around Cuomo, with the majority of the state's Democratic congressional delegation calling on him to resign. Early on Friday, a cadre of House Democrats said he needed to go, ranging from delegation stalwarts like Reps. Carolyn Maloney and Jerry Nadler to the progressives like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jamaal Bowman. (DCCC chair Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney also said he needed to resign.) A defiant Cuomo said in a press call on Friday afternoon that he wasn't going anywhere, saying those calling on him to go were "bowing to cancel culture."

But perhaps the biggest announcement came on early Friday evening. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand put out a joint statement calling them "credible sexual harassment and misconduct allegations," and that Cuomo must resign. POLITICO's Mick Niedzwiadek, Sarah Ferris and Marianne LeVine have more from Friday, while The New York Times' Shane Goldmacher has a great longer-look story: Cuomo "now finds himself sliding from hero-level worship to pariah-like status with the kind of astonishing speed that only the friendless suffer. It is a downfall foretold in a decade-long reign of ruthlessness and governance by brute force."

— Larry Schwartz, the head of New York's vaccine rollout and a longtime Cuomo adviser, has been phoning county officials over the last two weeks to "gauge their loyalty" to Cuomo, The Washington Post's Amy Brittain and Josh Dawsey reported, which triggered one Democratic county executive to file a precursor to an ethics complaint, fearing "the county's vaccine supply could suffer if Schwartz was not pleased with the executive's response to his questions about support of the governor."

CONVENTION SPOTTING — An incredibly tumultuous process of planning the Virginia GOP's gubernatorial nominating process may now finally be over. On Friday, the state central committee voted to have a remote convention on May 8, with up to 37 sites spread out across the state where delegates will pick nominees for governor, lieutenant governor and state attorney general. This came after a vote last month to hold one drive-in convention almost immediately fell apart, when the proposed host Liberty University said the plan wasn't workable. The Richmond Times-Dispatch's Patrick Wilson has more.

SHOW ME-STATE — Former Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens, a Republican who was ran out of office amid personal and professional scandals, is getting closer to a run for the state's open Senate seat in 2022, POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reported . But there's an effort to stop him: Alex reports that former President Donald Trump and his orbit have been warned that Greitens could lose the GOP the seat, and the Senate Leadership Fund (the major Senate-focused Republican super PAC), has been in talks on how to somehow stop Greitens from endangering the seat.

THE PROCESS — Few states have passed laws yet restricting voting rights, but with legislation working its way through many state legislatures, POLITICO's Nolan McCaskill has a step-back story on how Trump's lies about the election spurred the Republican-backed bills: "In short, bills are being introduced to prevent something that didn't happen in 2020 — widespread voter fraud — from recurring in 2022, 2024 and beyond."

— A bill introduced by Republicans in the Texas state Senate would prevent local election officials from mailing out absentee ballot applications (the state already requires an excuse), and restrict certain types of early voting, like drive-thru voting, the Houston Chronicle's Taylor Goldenstein reported.

FIRST RETIREMENT — We have the first House retirement of the cycle: Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.), who represents a Tucson-based district. POLITICO Campaigns' Ally Mutnick has more on her retirement, including potential candidates.

NOTABLE FLOATABLES — Conservative pundit Eric Bolling is considering a congressional run in South Carolina, and he is considering primarying Reps. Tom Rice (who voted to impeach Trump) or freshman Nancy Mace (who did not vote to impeach but has criticized Trump), Alex reported.

THANKS, BUT NO THANKS — Georgia Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, a Republican who has clashed with the former president's supporters over Trump's bunk election fraud claims, said he wouldn't run for Senate in 2022. "We're going to stay focused on being the lieutenant governor here in Georgia," he told Chuck Todd on "Meet the Press" on Sunday. "And we're going to focus hard on trying to rebuild this party and refocus GOP 2.0."

— Rep. Pete Stauber (R-Minn.) won't run against Democratic Gov. Tim Walz in 2022 and instead will seek reelection, KSTP's Ricky Campbell reported.

FIRST IN SCORE — MESSAGING MATTERS — Opportunity Wisconsin, a labor backed group, has a new ad in a six-figure digital campaign hitting Republican Sen. Ron Johnson over the pandemic package. "Johnson voted against the $1,400 Covid relief checks," the ad narrator says. "He voted against the support Wisconsin's families need."

LEGAL EAGLES — Marc Elias, the prominent Democratic lawyer who has spearheaded the party's election litigation, and other Perkins Coie lawyers were sanctioned by a federal appeals court in a lawsuit about straight-ticket voting in Texas. Bloomberg's Erik Larson: "Elias in February filed a so-called motion to supplement the record in a case accusing Texas of trying to illegally scrap straight-ticket voting during the pandemic, even though an identical motion had already been denied earlier in the case. The technical violation 'unreasonably and vexatiously' dragged out the litigation by creating more work for the court, according to the ruling."

In a statement, Perkins Coie stood by Elias and the other attorneys. "We do not normally respond to requests for comment on pending litigation, but the firm and the attorneys involved in this matter strongly disagree with the appellate court's ruling and its order of sanctions in this case," it said in a statement. "The firm fully and completely supports our attorneys in this case."

HAPPENING THURSDAY - PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW WITH CONGRESSMAN LEE ZELDIN : The GOP has not won a statewide election in New York in nearly two decades. Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.), an ally of former President Donald Trump, is one of several Republicans considering a challenge against embattled New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Join Playbook co-authors Tara Palmeri and Ryan Lizza for a conversation with Rep. Zeldin to discuss a potential gubernatorial run and how he is working with Democrats in Congress. REGISTER HERE.

Presidential Big Board

POST-PRESIDENCY SLUMP — Trump has promised revenge and a tightened grip over the GOP, even in his post-presidency. But, POLITICO's Gabby Orr and Meridith McGraw report, he instead "finds himself adrift while in political exile. And Republicans, and even some allies, say he is disorganized, torn between playing the role of antagonist and party leader."

More on his post-presidency political operation: "He has assembled a barebones staff of paid and unpaid advisers who say they are working to vet primary candidates seeking his support and get his fundraising operation off the ground. But the factions that have already formed among those surrounding him suggest potential turbulence ahead. Three veterans of Trump's 2020 campaign — Brad Parscale, Bill Stepien and Justin Clark — have been screening primary recruitments and brainstorming ways to reestablish his online presence, while Dave Bossie and Corey Lewandowski are in talks with the ex-president to launch a new fundraising entity on his behalf, according to people briefed on the recent discussions."

— Trump's name is still generating significant attention in the scam PAC arena. POLITICO's Theo Meyer dives in on one that is promising to support him and help him get back on Twitter, but in actuality has zero to do with his political operation.

MESSAGING MATTERS — Unite the Country, the pro-Biden super PAC, launched a seven-figure ad campaign in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona and Georgia touting the coronavirus relief package, POLITICO's Natasha Korecki reported. "No tweetstorms, no drama, just progress," the ad says.

CODA — WEBSITE OF THE DAY: As actor Matthew McConaughey floats a Texas gubernatorial run, one Score reader points out that the website McConaugheyForTexas.com has been owned by Warner Bros. Entertainment since 2012.

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