We Did it: Twin threats to redistricting: practical, political — Inside the House Covid relief vote — Cuomo under fire after second staffer alleges inappropriate behavior

Mar 01, 2021

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Quick Fix

— State mapmakers are confronting twin crises as they grapple with blown statutory deadlines as a result of the census delay — and political questions about how seriously they should treat the Trump-fueled 2020 election as a harbinger of things to come.

— All but two House Democrats voted for the coronavirus relief bill passed early Saturday morning, while no Republicans crossed the aisle to support the measure in an early sign of party discipline holding strong on both sides.

— The sexual harassment scandal engulfing New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo intensified over the weekend after a second former staffer alleged he behaved inappropriately. In a statement Sunday afternoon, the three-term Democrat said he jokes with his staffers and apologized if any of his comments were "misinterpreted as an unwanted flirtation."

Good Monday morning, and welcome to March. Zach Montellaro is off this week, but he'll be back next Monday. Come at him like a lion at zmontellaro@politico.com, or follow him on Twitter like a lamb @ZachMontellaro.

You can reach me at sshepard@politico.com, or on Twitter @POLITICO_Steve. Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at jarkin@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @JamesArkin and @allymutnick.

Days until the LA-02 and LA-05 special elections: 19

Days until the TX-06 special election: 61

Days until the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections: 246

Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 617

Days until the 2024 election: 1,345

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TopLine

THE MAP LINES — First, the practical problem: States won't be receiving the data they need for redistricting until late summer or early fall — too late for a number of them to hit statutory or state constitutional deadlines to draw new congressional and state legislative districts. From POLITICO Campaigns' Zach Montellaro and Ally Mutnick.

"A six-month delay holding up the data that states use to draw their legislative districts is mangling plans for the 2022 elections, as states discuss postponing primaries and navigating legal deadlines for redistricting that some are now almost certain to miss. … Many states are typically done with redistricting by then, not just starting it, and the delay puts states with early primaries and redistricting deadlines in a difficult position. At least nine states have constitutional or statutory deadlines to redraw their maps, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures, that won't mesh with such a profound delay in the data delivery."

Here's a key quote from Jessika Shipley, the staff director of Colorado's state redistricting commission: "Basically we're sort of panicking, and we're not really sure what we're going to do. We don't have the option of just waiting and doing this for the 2024 cycle."

Then there's the question of what to do with the data when they do get it. Here's Ally and Campaign Pro alum Elena Schneider : "Traditionally, state legislators and political mapmakers rely heavily on recent election results for clues about how communities will vote in the future — baselines they use to gerrymander advantageous districts for their party. But the whiplash in Trump-era elections make drawing conclusions from those results more complicated this year.

"And both parties' strategists know that if they make bad bets , drawing districts based on elections that were driven more by [former President Donald] Trump's singular personality than by trends that will persist until 2030, those mistakes could swing control of the House against them over the next decade. 'People on both sides are going to have to look at these things and try to figure out: Are there any things that we can point to that are predictive, and where do we see the party heading?' said Adam Kincaid, the executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, the GOP's clearinghouse for redistricting data."

Down the Ballot

THE HOUSE MAP — The House's party-line vote on Democrats' $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package came with just two Democratic defections: Reps. Jared Golden of Maine and Kurt Schrader of Oregon. The two Blue Dogs both cruised to reelection last fall, though then-President Donald Trump carried Golden's rural Maine seat by 7 points. In a statement, Golden called the legislation, , "a mountain of unnecessary or untimely spending."

Before the House vote, polls suggested the bill is popular, including last week's POLITICO/Morning Consult survey , which showed three-in-four voters — including roughly 60 percent of Republicans — back the relief legislation. But no House Republican crossed over to vote for the bill, H.R. 1319 (117), and the GOP is trying to tag it with some partisan stink. In a statement Saturday morning, National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Torunn Sinclair called the bill a "corrupt socialist wish list."

One postscript: Republicans made proxy voting a 2020 campaign issue, but nearly 30 GOP members deputized one of their colleagues to cast their votes on this bill for them — some of whom were in attendance this weekend at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference in Orlando, Fla. (more on that later).

AGITA IN ALBANY — Cuomo's problems have gone from bad to worse. Following allegations from a second woman staffer that he made inappropriate, personal comments to her, Cuomo and state Attorney General Tish James appeared to agree on a referral that would allow James' office to open a probe of the charges and hire an outside attorney, POLITICO New York's Bill Mahoney reported. "Cuomo's move came after New York's top [state] legislative leaders, both Democrats, made it clear on Saturday night that they supported an independent investigation, and that governor's original proposal didn't fit that description."

Cuomo also released a statement Sunday, in which he said he likes to "tease people in what I think is a good natured way ... I now understand that my interactions may have been insensitive or too personal and that some of my comments, given my position, made others feel in ways I never intended."

SPECIAL ELECTION WATCH — The large field to replace late Rep. Ron Wright in TX-06 continues to grow. On Friday, GOP state Rep. Jake Ellzey, who lost to Wright in the 2018 primary, announced he will run in the May 1 special election. The Dallas Morning News' Gromer Jeffers Jr.: "Now Ellzey will run against Wright's widow, Republican activist Susan Wright, for the seat. After announcing her candidacy [last] week, Susan Wright got the backing of 100 activists and local leaders in the state. Other Republican contenders are expected to jump into the race, including [former Trump campaign adviser] Katrina Pierson."

THE SENATE MAP — Some rumblings out of New Hampshire: GOP Gov. Chris Sununu spoke last week with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and National Republican Senatorial Committee chair Rick Scott (Fla.) about challenging Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan, the Union Leader's Kevin Landrigan reported. More from Landrigan: "According to someone who spoke with him, Scott came away from the chat with the view that Sununu is '60-40' leaning toward a run."

THE GOVERNATORS — FIRST IN SCORE — Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe has nabbed the endorsement of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, a labor union with a big footprint in fed-heavy Virginia. In a statement shared first with Score, the union's president, Paul Rinaldi, called McAuliffe "the bold leader Virginia needs to create a more equitable post-COVID economy and invest in workers."

— Speaking of former governors, there isn't much enthusiasm among Florida Democrats for another Charlie Crist gubernatorial bid, POLITICO Florida's Gary Fineout wrote. Crist, now a congressman from the St. Petersburg area, won the 2006 governor's race as a Republican, lost the 2010 Senate race as an independent and narrowly lost the 2014 gubernatorial race as a Democrat.

NOTABLE FLOATABLES — Rep. Ron Kind (D-Wis.) isn't ruling out a Senate bid. After a Friday night interview with WKOW-TV in Madison, Kind, who won a 13th term last fall despite Trump winning his Western Wisconsin district by 5 points, wouldn't close the door on running for the seat currently held by GOP Sen. Ron Johnson, according to the station's state capitol bureau chief, A.J. Bayatpour.

THE PROCESS — Virginia's state legislature on Saturday "agreed on proposed constitutional amendments that would restore voting rights for thousands of Virginians convicted of felonies," the Richmond Times-Dispatch's Michael Martz reported. But the proposals "would have to pass the legislature again next year before going to a statewide voter referendum."

STATE PARTY SHUFFLE — Ohio Republicans tapped longtime GOP hand and Trump ally Bob Paduchik as state party chair on Friday, replacing Jane Timken, who stepped down to run for the state's open Senate seat. From the Cincinnati Enquirer's Jessie Balmert: "Before Paduchik was Donald Trump's guy in Ohio, he was President George W. Bush's guy and Gov. Bob Taft's guy and Sen. Rob Portman's guy. The political operative and Akron-area native has helped elect Republicans up and down the ballot for about three decades."

— The battle to succeed Mike Madigan as state Democratic chair in Illinois is down to two women: Rep. Robin Kelly and Chicago city Ald. Michelle Harris. Kelly has the backing of Sen. Dick Durbin, Rep. Chuy García and state Sen. Cristina Castro, who ended her own bid for the post over the weekend. Gov. J.B. Pritzker, Sen. Tammy Duckworth and Madigan, the desposed former state House speaker, are backing Harris. The Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet : "The tallies from both camps, based on the public statements from state central committee members, show Harris ahead but short of the 50 percent plus one needed. As behind-the-scenes lobbying grows more intense, there are enough members — about a third — who have not gone public to swing the outcome either way."

WOULD-BE 'KINZ'-MAKER — Supporters of Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) are launching a super PAC and affiliated nonprofit to bolster Trump-skeptical Republicans. The Washington Post's Josh Dawsey: "Kinzinger, who has already started a leadership PAC to directly support GOP candidates who have gone up against Trump, is expected to appear at fundraising events for the new super PAC, called Americans Keeping Country First."

JOIN WEDNESDAY FOR A PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW WITH NRCC CHAIR TOM EMMER : House Republicans surprised many observers in November flipping 15 seats and defeating several Democratic freshmen who delivered the House majority in 2018. Then the Jan. 6 insurrection set off an internal battle within the GOP, including among top House leaders. Join Playbook co-author Rachael Bade for a conversation with Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, to discuss his strategy for the 2022 midterm elections, President Donald Trump's role in the party, and the continued fallout from the assault on the Capitol. REGISTER HERE

Presidential Big Board

O-TOWN IS TRUMP TOWN — Here's a CPAC roundup from this weekend:

Trump's roughly 90-minute speech on Sunday afternoon "served as formal notice of his continued dominance over the Republican Party — and a return to campaign form for the former president," POLITICO's David Siders wrote.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump.

Former President Donald Trump spoke at CPAC this weekend. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images

More than half of conference attendees, 55 percent, picked Trump as their top choice for the 2024 GOP nomination, according to the annual straw poll, which was sponsored by The Washington Times.

Former Trump foreign policy hand Ric Grennell teased a possible run for California governor in a speech to the conference, POLITICO's Ben Leonard wrote.

Ben also covered speeches from two other ambitious Republicans: former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis called his home state an "oasis of freedom" from coronavirus restrictions, even though the conference "saw violations of a local mandatory mask rule," the Orlando Sentinel's Steven Lemongello and Steven Walker wrote.

A week after his short jaunt to Mexico landed him in hot water, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) "tried to make light of his lapse in judgment," The New York Times' Elaina Plott reported. "'I gotta say, Orlando is awesome,' he said while opening his speech. 'It's not as nice as Cancún — but it's nice!'"

CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY: "California doctor performs surgery while appearing at video traffic court appointment" From the Sacramento Bee.

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