We Did it: Redistricting looms in Texas — GOP drops gay marriage fight

Aug 16, 2021

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Quick Fix

— The Texas state legislature is paralyzed by the fight over an elections bill, but the battle over redistricting is already underway.

— The Republican Party has moved on from the gay marriage debate, frustrating its base of evangelical voters.

— California Republicans are more fired up to vote in the September recall election than Democrats, a trend Gov. Gavin Newsom is trying to reverse.

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Days until the California recall: 29

Days until the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections, the OH-11 and OH-15 special elections and the FL-20 special primary: 78

Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 449

Days until the 2024 election: 1,181

TopLine

EVERYTHING IS BIGGER IN TEXAS — Texas is still in the midst of a tense battle over elections legislation. But the next fight is just around the corner: redistricting.

The Lone Star State will gain two congressional seats this cycle. Republicans control the redistricting process, which is handled by the state legislature and governor. Texas is the country's third-fastest growing state, following Utah and Idaho, according to new data from the Census Bureau released last week.

Despite their disadvantage, Democratic groups are already gearing up for battle. Advocates say the state's new congressional districts should be in or near Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth due to population growth in those areas.

"There's simply no way for them to add two more GOP seats in Texas without racially gerrymandering based on this Census Data. They can try it and we will see them in court," National Democratic Redistricting Committee President Kelly Ward Burton told Score in an email. Lawsuits over the 2010 redistricting cycle wrapped up in 2018, when the Supreme Court ruled that map-drawers did not intentionally discriminate against people of color. The chair of the state redistricting committee and the National Republican Redistricting Trust didn't respond to requests for comment.

The clock is ticking. As of now, Texas holds its primaries on March 1, and candidates are required to file by mid-December. The state could move the primary to a later date due to the delay in redistricting data, as GOP Gov. Greg Abbott has suggested. Legislating remains at a standstill in Austin while Republicans and Democrats battle over voting rights.

Some census stats we found interesting: The Latino population accounted for nearly half of Texas' growth over the last 10 years. The Austin, Dallas and Houston metro areas grew in size faster than the state did. Plus, the gap between the state's white and Hispanic or Latino population shrank to less than half a percentage point, according to the Census Bureau.

Much of the state's population growth came in urban and suburban areas. Three of the 10 most populous cities in the country are in Texas, and the state contains two of the nation's five counties which gained at least 300,000 people -- Harris County (which contains Houston) and Tarrant County (which contains Dallas-Fort Worth). But in some of the state's more rural counties, population actually shrank, the Austin American-Statesman's Philip Jankowski reported.

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Down the Ballot

MIDTERM MESSAGING — Even as they oppose transgender rights and top LGBTQ priorities, Republicans quietly admitted defeat in the gay marrigae debate, POLITICO's Meridith McGraw reports . There's no serious push inside the party to overturn the Supreme Court decision that legalized gay marriage. The official Republican party platform, however, includes language that defines marriage as being between a man and a woman. Former President Donald Trump became the first Republican to mention protecting rights of LGBTQ citizens at the GOP convention in 2016, but he opposed the Equality Act and appointed judges hostile to LGBTQ issues during his presidency.

(RE)CALL ME MAYBE — California Democrats are less motivated to turn out for the Sept. 14 recall than Republicans, which could spell trouble for Newsom, according to a new CBS News/YouGov poll. Seventy-two percent of Republicans say they are "very motivated" to vote, while only 61 percent of Democrats said the same. The poll surveyed 1,856 adult residents of California from Aug. 6-12. If Newsom is recalled, Republican Larry Elder leads the field of replacement candidates, although 25 percent of respondents said they are unsure who they'd choose, and 20 percent said they would select "no one."

— Speaking of the recall, the prospect of a Republican becoming governor and possibly selecting Sen. Dianne Feinstein's (D-Cali.) successor is worrying Democrats, CNN's Manu Raju and Alex Rogers report. The 88-year-old senator's term does not end until 2025, and she has not indicated she would leave office before the 2024 election. If Newsom lost, though, some Democrats say they would urge Feinstein to step down before a new Republican governor took over.

EXCLUSIVE: OUT OF LEFT FIELD — Democratic consulting firm Left Hook is launching a fall fellowship to create a pipeline for more diverse staff on political campaigns and in advocacy groups and organizations. Left Hook is working with ALG Research, Authentic, Blueprint Interactive, Field Strategies, Hopkins+Sachs, Mission Control, Spiros Consulting and Wildfire Mail on the initiative, in partnership with Progressive Pipeline. POLITICO's James Arkin wrote about the initiative in May. During the eight-month fellowship, participants will complete three 10-week rotations with firms involved in the partnership.

GETTING IN — Iowa Democrat Deidre DeJear launched a campaign for governor, the Des Moines Register's Stephen Gruber-Miller wrote. DeJear and state Rep. Ras Smith are the two Democrats running for a chance to take on GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds. DeJear, who was the Democratic nominee for secretary of state in 2018, would be the first Black statewide elected official in Iowa.

— Alaska Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy is running for reelection with Lt. Gov. Kevin Meyer, the Anchorage Daily News' James Brooks reports. Former independent Gov. Bill Walker and former state lawmaker Les Gara, a Democrat, are both considering campaigns against Dunleavy. Libertarian Billy Toien is already running.

ENDORSEMENT ALERT — Trump endorsed Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee on Friday, just as right-wing groups ramp up their criticism of the popular governor, the Nashville Tennessean's Natalie Allison reports. Lee has come under fire from conservatives for his handling of the pandemic and vaccinations.

STAFFING UP — Troy Price, the former Iowa state Democratic Party chair, is taking over as executive director of the New Hampshire Democratic Party, WMUR's John DiStaso wrote. Former state Sen. Melanie Levesque also joined the party as senior adviser and director of outreach. Price resigned from his role in Iowa after the 2020 caucuses, when technical difficulties delayed the results.

NOTABLE FLOATABLES — Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis urged former Nevada state Attorney General Adam Laxalt to run for Senate at a political event over the weekend. At Laxalt's annual Basque Fry, the Republican officials urged Laxalt to take on Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nevada) in 2022, The Associated Press' Sam Metz wrote. Laxalt appeared to file with the FEC late Sunday.

"Adam, I guess he's not supposed to say that he's going to be your next United States Senator. There's some campaign finance rules against it. But what do I care about some stupid rules like that? Adam Laxalt is going to the United States Senate for the Battle Born State in 2022," Cotton said. DeSantis canceled his visit due to a tropical storm, but spoke in a video message.

— While we're talking about DeSantis, recently released emails show the Republican governor is in high demand on Fox News, according to the Tampa Bay Times' Steve Contorno. DeSantis has filled the hole left in the wake of Trump's loss, and elevated his profile in the process ahead of a possible 2024 run for president. From November 2020 to February of this year, Fox invited DeSantis onto its programs 113 times, Contorno found. "We see him as the future of the party," one producer wrote in an email to DeSantis' team.

BALLOT BATTLE — Conspiracy theories about the 2020 election have taken hold in a small Pennsylvania town, The Philadelphia Inquirer's Andrew Seidman reports. The Lehigh Township Board of Supervisors unanimously approved — and later rescinded — a proclamation that affirmed gun rights and banned mail-in ballots, ballot drop boxes and "ballot harvesting." The proclamation, which is unenforceable because municipalities don't set election laws, also called for stricter voter ID rules and the removal of dead people from voter rolls. Those who did not comply would be punished with a $15,000 fine and seven years in jail, according to the proclamation.

THE EMPIRE STATE — New York Republicans have lost their ultimate foil: disgraced Gov. Andrew Cuomo. The scandal-plagued governor was an ideal opponent for Republicans, reports POLITICO New York's Anna Gronewold. Instead, they'll be up against Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, who will soon make history as the state's first woman leader. Republican gubernatorial candidates Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) and Andrew Giuliani could use Cuomo's misconduct against Hochul to imply, without evidence, that she was aware of Cuomo's misdeeds.

— Former New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, a Democrat and former Cuomo ally, is not ruling out a run for governor, she said during an interview on WPIX . Quinn said she was surprised by the state attorney general's investigation into the allegations against Cuomo, and that it was "basically impossible" for him to run again. Quinn did not say whether she would be interested in becoming Hochul's lieutenant governor or running for governor.

THE PROCESS — Republican lawmakers planned an "unofficial public hearing" to gather evidence of voter fraud in Washington state , where President Joe Biden won the 2020 election by 19 points. The Republicans are hoping to replicate the election "audit" in Arizona, Seattle Times' Jim Brunner reports, despite there being no credible claims of election fraud in the state. State Rep. Robert Sutherland, who organized the hearing, recently visited the audit facility in Maricopa County, and attended MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell's "cyber symposium" in South Dakota.

— Meanwhile in Arizona, the attorney for the audit firm Cyber Ninjas switched roles to work for the state Senate, advising lawmakers' independent check on the recount. "The dual roles of attorney Bryan Blehm raise questions about the independence of the Senate review," wrote the Arizona Republic's Mary Jo Pitzl. Blehm's contract with the audit expired in June, according to a spokesperson, and the attorney took no fee from the state Senate.

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WAITING GAME — Democrats are hesitant to run against Rep. Pete Stauber (R-Minn.) until new congressional districts are drawn, leaving Democratic-Farmer-Labor activists without a candidate to support, the Bemidji Pioneer's Brady Slater wrote. With the redistricting delay, activists worry a challenger may not emerge until winter or spring, ahead of the August primary.

CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY — "Jim Kenney gets Rickrolled in campaign for governor (that's not happening)" — Philadelphia Inquirer

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