We Did it: 5 redistricting days until Christmas

Dec 20, 2021

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Weekly Score will not publish next Monday, Dec. 27. We'll be back in your inboxes on Monday, Jan. 3.

Quick Fix

— Like delinquent holiday shoppers, a number of states are scrambling to beat congressional redistricting deadlines over the next two weeks. We have a full rundown of what to expect, and what's at stake.

— Democrats are increasingly bearish on 2022 — and aren't planning on blowing up their 2024 primary calendar.

— Another Democratic retirement appears imminent: Rep. Albio Sires (D-N.J.) is reportedly hanging 'em up next year, and the apparent frontrunner to replace him has a familiar name.

Good Monday morning. I'm Steve Shepard (sshepard@politico.com ; @POLITICO_Steve), filling in for the vacationing Stephanie Murray (smurray@politico.com; @stephanie_murr.) We'll be in your inbox through Thursday of this week, then take a break for the holidays.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at zmontellaro@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com . Follow them on Twitter: @ZachMontellaro and @allymutnick.

Days until the FL-20 special election: 22

Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 323

Days until the 2024 election: 1,051

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TopLine

THE MAP LINES — It's crunch time across the country — not just to get those gifts in time for Christmas morning, but also for states with end-of-year deadlines to finalize their new congressional maps. Here's a rundown of the latest action:

California: Today is the day for California's independent redistricting commission. The commission, which worked late into the night on Sunday, is expected to vote later today on the new congressional map it will be sending to the secretary of state. It's been a chaotic process thus far, with the commission working through the maps district-by-district over the past month. With a half-dozen districts in which the presidential margin was in the single digits last year — and three seats that flipped from Democrats to Republicans — much is at stake for both parties in the final boundaries.

Arizona: The state's independent redistricting commission's deadline is Wednesday, and it's an all-out press to meet it. The commission was in session for a half-day on Sunday, two days after the independent tiebreaker, Erika Neuberg, surprised observers by siding with Democrats on the congressional map over Republicans, with whom she's typically voted throughout the process. But, the Associated Press' Bob Christie noted, "even with the changes made by the commission Friday, Democratic seats held by Reps. Tom O'Halleran and [Ann] Kirkpatrick, who had previously announced she planned to retire, could flip."

Virginia: The public-comment deadline for the special master-drawn maps released earlier this month is 1 p.m. this afternoon, following twin hearings last week. The Associated Press reported that many speakers "raised concerns about Richmond and its suburbs being carved into three congressional districts." Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) tweeted Saturday that she's "working hard" to represent the current VA-07 and build a "strong" reelection campaign — a signal she may be preparing to run in the new district up I-95 if the proposed lines are enacted. The state Supreme Court is expected to announce next steps — adoption of the maps proposed by the special masters, or possible revisions — soon.

Michigan: Hope you don't have too many plans next week , because Michigan's redistricting commission will completing the state's new congressional map, with meetings set for Dec. 28-30. The latest there: The state's civil rights department argued in an analysis last week that "the commission's proposed congressional maps don't comply with the Voting Rights Act — the federal law that prohibits voting districts that deny minority voters an opportunity to elect their preferred candidates — because they eliminate majority-minority districts, where nonwhite voters make up more than 50% of the district," the Detroit Free-Press' Clara Hendrickson wrote.

One state that finished its congressional redistricting: New Mexico. Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham signed the new map into law on Friday, codifying the Democratic-controlled state legislature's redraw, which turns GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell's southern New Mexico district into a seat Biden carried in 2020.

Down the Ballot

VIBE CHECK — Two POLITICO dispatches from Democratic National Committee meetings in Charleston, S.C.: One from David Siders , who didn't find a lot of optimism in the Holy City: "Interviews with more than two dozen state party chairs, executive directors and strategists suggest party officials are reframing the 2022 election as a defensive effort, with success defined as maintaining the Democratic Senate majority and holding back a Republican tide in the House."

— It's unclear how much Democrats will actually shape the 2024 primary calendar, especially if Biden runs for another term. But to the extent they will affect the order of early-primary states, David and Alex Thompson found diminishing enthusiasm for dethroning Iowa and New Hampshire this cycle: "The White House will have enormous influence on setting the calendar, and if Biden calls for a change, one almost certainly will be adopted. But the Biden administration has not yet weighed in, and DNC members appear far less motivated than they had once been to make an immediate change."

RETIREMENT WATCH — Sires won't seek reelection next year, according to the New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein, who names Port Authority Commissioner Robert Menendez — the son of Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) — as the "front runner" to succeed him. "A formal announcement from Sires is expected before the end of the year."

GETTING IN — Long Beach (Calif.) Mayor Robert Garcia will run for Congress after Rep. Alan Lowenthal (D-Calif.) announced his retirement last week, POLITICO California's Jeremy B. White reported. "Garcia, a Democrat, moved quickly after Lowenthal announced his retirement," Jeremy wrote, launching the next day "with a campaign video that focuses on his mother, who immigrated to the country when Garcia was a small child and died last year of coronavirus."

THE MAP LINES (CONT.) — With Pennsylvania's Democratic governor, Tom Wolf, seen as unlikely to accept a new congressional map approved by the GOP-controlled state legislature, the Democratic-affiliated National Redistricting Action Fund is backing a lawsuit filed last week to ask the state courts to redraw the lines.

The lead attorney on the case: Democratic superlawyer Marc Elias. The Hill's Reid Wilson profiled him last week. Asked about forming his own firm and splitting from Perkins Coie earlier this year, Elias told Wilson, "I became more and more convinced that I wanted to practice law in an environment in which we only represented Democrats and progressive causes."

FUMBLE! — Georgia GOP Senate candidate Herschel Walker didn't graduate from the University of Georgia, despite since-removed claims on his campaign website that the 1982 Heisman Trophy winner earned a criminal justice degree in Athens, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein reported.

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FIRST IN SCORE: ENDORSEMENT CORNER — The hybrid PAC Democrats Serve, which supports Democratic candidates nationwide with public service backgrounds , is backing four new candidates: Wisconsin Senate hopeful Sarah Godlewski, the state treasurer; NC-06 candidate Valerie Foushee, a state senator; Rhode Island state Treasurer Seth Magaziner, who is challenging Gov. Dan McKee in a primary; and Suffolk County (N.Y.) Legislator Kara Hahn, who is running for an open congressional seat on Eastern Long Island.

ICYMI — Playbook's Rachael Bade led last Friday's edition with controversy roiling the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, especially around chairman Sean Patrick Maloney (N.Y.).

REST IN PEACE — Former Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.) died Sunday at 76, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Tamar Hallerman and Daniel Malloy reported. Isakson joined the House in 1999, succeeding former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and was first elected to the Senate in 2004. He won reelection twice, but stepped down in late 2019 due to poor health — setting up a special election that saw the seat flip to Democrat Raphael Warnock, who is seeking a full term next year.

CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY — "Ohio Senate candidate goes from supporter to denier of 2020 election results ," from Spectrum News Ohio.

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