Monday, December 6, 2021

The most competitive governors races, one year out

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Score is your guide to the year-round campaign cycle.
Dec 06, 2021 View in browser
 
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By Zach Montellaro

Quick Fix

— Former Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) is set to launch a primary challenge to Gov. Brian Kemp today, capping a busy week in the Peach State. Here's where that and four other hyper-competitive governors races stand as we head into 2022.

— Former President Donald Trump is trying to break up the field in the North Carolina Senate race, dangling an endorsement for former Rep. Mark Walker — should he drop down and run for his old job in Congress.

— Judges in Washington State declined to block their state's new political maps, one of the earliest rulings in what will be a very litigious redistricting cycle.

Good Monday morning! It's Zach Montellaro (zmontellaro@politico.com; @ZachMontellaro), back in action for Score for a couple more days while Stephanie Murray ( smurray@politico.com; @stephanie_murr) takes a few days off.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve and @allymutnick.

Days until the FL-20 special election: 36

Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 337

Days until the 2024 election: 1,065

 

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TopLine

Georgia Republican Senate candidate David Perdue speaks.

Former Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) is expected to launch a primary challenge to Gov. Brian Kemp on Monday. | Jessica McGowan/Getty Images

THE GOVERNATORS — The biggest election news of the weekend came in Georgia's governor race, where our own Marc Caputo first reported that Perdue is primarying Kemp, with the announcement expected today. It is the culmination of a recruiting effort from former President Donald Trump, with Trump looking to exact revenge on the sitting governor for not helping him overturn the results of the 2020 election. Trump is expected to endorse the former senator's campaign.

It sets up an unusual dynamic in the Peach State: The incumbent governor is facing a serious primary challenger, and the party out of power has coalesced around a candidate. That candidate, of course, is Democrat Stacey Abrams, who launched her own campaign last week , vying for a rerun of the 2018 election, when Kemp narrowly defeated her. Georgia was already expected to be one of the most hotly-contested (and expensive) governor races of 2022, with the Senate race also competing for top billing. And there's still the wildcard candidacy of former state Rep. Vernon Jones, a one-time Democratic lawmaker who switched parties and wholeheartedly joined the Trump wing of the GOP, who said Perdue would not chase him out of the race. If Sunday was any indication, the primary will be incredibly nasty.

But Georgia won't be the only hotly contested governors' contest next year. With the end of the year fast approaching, let's check in on some of the other gubernatorial contests next year. (And with apologies to our readers in Kansas, Massachusetts and Maryland, we are going to focus on what are considered the traditional battleground states, although those states will be competitive next year as well.)

Arizona: Republican Gov. Doug Ducey is term-limited, and the Republican field to replace him is crowded. Trump made an early endorsement of former TV news anchor Kari Lake, who has wholeheartedly backed Trump's conspiracy theories about the 2020 election. But Lake has not been a field-clearer. The Club for Growth, which typically aligns with Trump, backed a longtime ally, former Rep. Matt Salmon, and state board of regents Karrin Taylor Robson, who was appointed to her post by Ducey, is expected to be able to raise a significant amount of money. The field also includes state Treasurer Kimberly Yee, businessman Steve Gaynor and Daniel McCarthy, who unsuccessfully tried to primary then-Sen. Martha McSally in 2020.

On the Democratic side, secretary of state Katie Hobbs is considered the frontrunner in a field that also includes former state Rep. Aaron Lieberman and former Nogales Mayor Marco López Jr. But there's a recent complication to Hobbs' seemingly smooth path to the nomination. A federal jury awarded a state Senate aide, Talonya Adams, millions of dollars in damages after Adams sued, saying was discriminated against when she was fired from her job as an adviser to state Senate Democrats in 2015 when Hobbs led the caucus. (Adams is a Black woman.) A brief summary from the Arizona Republic's Stacey Barchenger from last month: "Hobbs apologized to Adams in 2019, but after trial last week, issued a statement through a spokesperson blaming the majority Republicans as the ultimate decisionmakers on staffing. That waffling has drawn criticism from Adams herself and now, some of the state's most prominent leaders of color." When asked about it on Peacock last week, Hobbs said she was "sorry for my role in this and I have learned from this."

Michigan: Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is preparing for her reelection by raising boatloads of money, and a federal judge sounded skeptical recently about a Republican court case that would force Whitmer to return money she raised in excess of contribution limits through a loophole for candidates facing a recall. (The recalls aren't particularly serious efforts and won't be successful.) The Republican primary field is increasingly crowded, including former Detrioit Police Chief James Craig, conservative media personality Tudor Dixon, businessman Kevin Rinke and conservative activist Garrett Soldano, among others. And two-time Republican Senate nominee John James still hasn't ruled out a run.

Nevada: Republicans here are similarly facing a crowded field to challenge Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak. The biggest name running is former Sen. Dean Heller, but there are plenty of others in the race that includes Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee, Las Vegas City Councillor Michele Fiore, former boxer Joey Gilbert and businessman Guy Nohra, among others. Trump has endorsed in Nevada's Senate race, backing former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt (whom Sisolak defeated in 2018), but hasn't weighed in here. Both state parties are trying to navigate some pretty major intra-party divides as well.

Pennsylvania: If you're following a trend here: Republicans have a messy primary ahead, while Democrats have coalesced around state Attorney General Josh Shapiro to replace the term-limited Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf. This Republican field, which at this point has too many candidates to name, has largely been a contest for who is the Trumpiest candidate of them all. It will likely get even busier in the new year: Former Rep. Melissa Hart told The Philadelphia Inquirer's Julia Terruso that she would launch a bid next year, while state Sen. Scott Martin, who formed an exploratory bid earlier this year, seems to be publicly teasing a run. And others, like Trump ally state Sen. Doug Mastriano, are still considering runs.

Wisconsin: Democratic Gov. Tony Evers is also expected to skate to his party's nomination, but he will need to find a new running-mate, with Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes running for Senate. Former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch is the one major Republican in the race thus far, but it may not stay that way. Pending Sen. Ron Johnson's reelection decision, businessman Kevin Nicholson may run for governor, and Trump has tried to publicly draft former Rep. Sean Duffy into the race as well. Last week, state Rep. John Macco, who had previously filed to run, said that he wouldn't be seeking higher office, per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Patrick Marley.

Down the Ballot

Donald Trump is pictured.

Former President Donald Trump is trying to lure former Rep. Mark Walker (R-N.C.) to drop out of the state's Senate race and run for his old job to help clear the Senate primary field. | Ben Gray/AP Photo

NORTH CAROLINA SHUFFLE — The two-week candidate-filing period kicks off today, but the game of musical chairs is already underway. POLITICO's Natalie Allison reports that Trump is orchestrating moves to try to break up the field in the Senate race for GOP Rep. Ted Budd, whom he has endorsed, to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Richard Burr . Natalie reports that Trump offered to endorse Walker, who did not run for reelection last year after a court-ordered redraw of the state's congressional lines put him in unfriendly territory, as long as Walker dropped out of the Senate race and ran for the House. To do that, Republican congressional candidate Bo Hines will switch districts to clear a spot for Walker, and is also expected to pick up Trump's endorsement. Read Natalie's story for the details on how this came together, which included a meeting with Trump.

All this maneuvering will leave a clearer one-on-one primary matchup between Budd and former Gov. Pat McCrory. Burr has said that McCrory has the best chance to win a general election.

— The 2022 calendar is set because a panel of three state judges declined to block the state's congressional and legislative map lines on Friday, The News & Observer's Brian Murphy reported.

— Club for Growth, the anti-tax conservative organization, is planning a big buy for Budd in the new year. Our friends at AdImpact tracked a nearly $4.5 million buy from the group from Jan. 7 running through March 13. (This is likely just a quirk of the early buying: The primary is on March 8.) It brings their total spending to nearly $8.4 million.

THE MAP LINES — The Washington state Supreme Court will not redraw the state's congressional (and legislative) lines and will leave the lines drawn by the state's commission in place, The Seattle Times' Jim Brunner reported, even though the commission's work on the lines carried on after the state's Nov. 15 deadline.

— Illinois Democrats are spiking the football about the new congressional map, which further entrenches their dominance of the delegation — and forces freshman Rep. Mary Miller to run against either GOP Reps. Mike Bost or Rodney Davis, POLITICO's Ally Mutnick and Olivia Beavers reported. They're confident Miller will lose. Miller is perhaps best known for giving a speech early in her tenure in Congress where she said Adolf Hitler "was right on one thing. He said, 'Whoever has the youth has the future.'" (She later both apologized and attacked those who criticized her for saying it.) "I think Mike Bost is a decent human being. I think Rodney Davis is a decent human being. And I don't recall them ever speaking lovingly of Adolf Hitler," the retiring Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.) said about Miller.

ALWAYS BE SELLING — Democrats who look at President Joe Biden's poll numbers see doom and gloom in the midterms. Can they reverse it? "Their proposed antidote: Finish the battles over legislating as quickly as possible, then spend their next few months talking up their infrastructure and coronavirus relief laws, as well as their forthcoming social spending bill," POLITICO's Heather Caygle, Burgess Everett and Jonathan Lemire write.

HIGH COURT POLITICS — Last week's oral arguments on Mississippi's case trying to overturn Roe v. Wade kicked off a chorus of liberal groups saying Democrats running on defending abortion rights will reframe the midterms. But privately, some strategists don't think it will be the silver bullet for Democrats, POLITICO's David Siders reported, despite a majority of Americans fairly consistently saying abortion should be legal in at least some cases.

FIRST IN SCORE — THE GOVERNATORS (CONTINUED) — John King, who was former President Barack Obama's education secretary, is out with his first statewide digital ad in the Maryland Democratic gubernatorial primary. The 60-second ad , which the campaign said is backed by a six-figure buy, opens talking about how his family was enslaved. "Today's gap in health, wealth and criminal justice are tied to the history of slavery, segregation and red lining," King says in the video, which also highlights his education background.

— Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker's decision to not seek reelection has Republicans in the state "at each others' throats," with no clear heir apparent and what appears to be a clear shot for Democrats to retake the governor's mansion, POLITICO's Lisa Kashinsky wrote.

— Alabama Republican Senate candidate Lynda Blanchard looks primed to make the jump to primary Gov, Kay Ivey this week, following CNN's reporting last week that she would do so. Our own Alex Isenstadt obtained an invite to a "special announcement" on Tuesday, with the paid-for at the bottom being from a gubernatorial campaign. (Another curiosity: Her gubernatorial campaign-in-waiting rebrands her as "Lindy" instead of "Lynda.")

— Rhode Island state House Minority Leader Blake Filippi, a Republican, ruled out a gubernatorial run and said he would instead seek reelection.

BACK AT IT — Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.), who joined Congress after the 2018 wave year, announced that he would seek reelection even as state Republicans are expected to make his district much redder. WMUR's John DiStaso and Adam Sexton have more.

— Vermont Lt. Gov. Molly Gray, a Democrat, filed to run for the state's at-large Senate seat late Sunday night. Rep. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) is running to replace the retiring Democratic Sen. Patrick Leahy.

OLD DOMINION — Virginia Gov.-elect Glenn Youngkin is weeks away from being sworn in as the first Republican governor of the commonwealth in over a decade. But it didn't come cheap. Post-election fundraising reports showed that he and former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe combined to raise a "record-smashing" $136 million for the contest, The Washington Post's Laura Vozzella reported. The two split that total almost identically, but Youngkin kicked in $20 million of his own money to fuel his campaign. Vozzella also has more on the "hero's welcome" that Youngkin got at the Virginia GOP's retreat.

— A panel of Virginia judges upheld a Republican flip in the state House of Delegates after a recount, which guarantees a narrow Republican majority in the chamber, the AP's Ben Finley reported. A recount in a second flipped seat is expected to proceed this week, but even if it was to change the results (which recounts do only in the rarest of circumstances), Republicans will still control the chamber.

WHAT'S IN A NAME? — That's what the eagle-eared POLITICO Campaigns chief Steve Shepard asks about Pennsylvania Senate candidate Mehmet Oz's debut TV ads . Oz's "stand by your ad" disclaimer is not his full name, but him saying "I'm Dr. Oz, and I approve this message." The provisions in the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 are sufficiently vague enough to say that a candidate needs to only give a statement that "identifies" them and say they approve the ad, but traditionally candidates say their full name instead of a nickname or their last name. (But this certainly seems to be within at least the spirit of the law, given Oz's prominence through his eponymous TV show.)

MONEY MOVES — Koch Industries (yes, that Koch Industries) bought Arizona Republican self-funder Jim Lamon's solar energy company as he runs for the Senate, Axios' Lachlan Markay reported. American for Prosperity Action, the main political arm of Stand Together (the preferred name of the Koch network of political groups) has not gotten involved in the Arizona Senate race yet.

STAFFING UP — The Democratic Attorneys General Association announced a series of senior staffers for the cycle: Michelle Ortiz will be deputy executive director and chief of staff, Geoff Burgan will be comms director, Megan Hughes will be research director, Emily Rossi will be digital director and David Sanchez will be political director.

— "34N22," the super PAC supporting Republican Hershal Walker's challenge to Sen. Raphael Warnock (R-Ga.), is staffed with veteran Republican hands, per The Washington Examiner's David Drucker: OnMessage's Guy Harrison for media strategy and Wes Anderson for polling, Katie Benke as chief fundraiser, Chris Homan as general consultant and Stephen Lawson advising on communications.

 

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Presidential Big Board

IN MEMORIAM — Longtime Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole, who was the GOP's presidential nominee in 1996, died early Sunday morning at 98 years old. POLITICO's Cory Bennett has our obituary of Dole; Leaders across the political spectrum passed along their condolences, and Biden announced that flags be flown at half-staff until sunset on Dec. 9.

COUNT THE VOTES — Members of the House Jan. 6 committee and other members of Congress have said they are looking to change the Electoral Count Act, The New York Times' Luke Broadwater and Nick Corasaniti reported. That law was written in the late 1800s and governs much of how the Electoral College functions. But even before Jan. 6, experts described the law an ambiguous and confusing, and Trump tried to take advantage of that to try to overturn the election last year.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Sherman left more standing than this primary will." — Republican strategist Brian Robinson on the upcoming Georgia Republican gubernatorial primary, to The Atlanta-Journal Constitution's Greg Bluestein.

 

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