We Did it: GOP Senate spending tops $15M in PA

Jan 24, 2022

Presented by Premion

Quick Fix

— It's no secret battleground Senate races are very, very expensive.Republicans in Pennsylvania have already spent $15 million on the air, and it's only January.

— Pennsylvania state Attorney General Josh Shapiro raised $6.3 million in the final quarter of 2021for his gubernatorial bid.

— Rep.Jim Langevin's retirement could spark a chaotic congressional primary in the Ocean State,but it may also upend the race for governor.

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Days until the Texas primary: 36

Days until the CA-22 special election primary: 71

Days until the Indiana and Ohio primaries: 99

Days until the general election: 288

Days until the 2024 election: 1,016

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THE TOPLINE

SHOW ME THE MONEY — It's a good year to sell TV airtime in Pennsylvania, to put it lightly. Republicans running for Senate in the Keystone State — and the super PACs supporting them — are spending millions on campaign ads ahead of the May 15 primary.

Republican candidates and groups supporting them spent and reserved a combined $15.3 million on TV ads, according to our pals at AdImpact. Of that total, about $3.5 million was reserved by outside GOP groups. The total spent on ads by Republicans in the race to replace retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) dwarfs what Democrats have put into the race. So far, Democratic candidates and outside groups have aired and reserved about $2.8 million in TV airtime.

It's Bachelor Monday, so here's an analogy. Instead of being the most dramatic season ever, battleground Senate races are on track to be the most expensive election cycle ever. Experts expect the Pennsylvania GOP Senate primary will end up costing between $110 and $130 million on TV, POLITICO's Natalie Allison reported.

Of course, it's not just Pennsylvania. "Together, Senate candidates from both parties have already bought $131 million worth of television advertisements. That's more than double what was spent on Senate races at this point in 2020 or 2018, according to a POLITICO analysis of data from AdImpact," Natalie wrote.

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Mehmet Oz speaks onstage.

Mehmet Oz speaks onstage during the 2021 Concordia Annual Summit in New York City. | Riccardo Savi/Getty Images

But the windfall on Pennsylvania TV is pretty notable. The top Republican spender is Mehmet Oz, the celebrity surgeon who left "The Dr. Oz Show" to launch a Senate bid. Oz has aired $4 million in TV ads, and has reserved another $1.3 million in airtime. The pro-Oz super PAC American Leadership Action is also the top spending super PAC, dropping $1.2 million on the race so far.

Following Oz is former hedge fund manager Dave McCormick, who has spent $3.8 million on airtime. The pro-McCormick groups Honor Pennsylvania PAC and Pennsylvania Patriots Victory Fund have spent $1.1 million and $166,000, respectively. (Btw: Texas GOP Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) endorsed McCormick over the weekend, calling him "a badass" who "will go bare knuckle" to fight for the people of Pennsylvania.)

And there's been plenty of drama between the two. The pro-Oz American Leadership Action had to edit a TV ad that falsely claimed former President Donald Trump fired McCormick, POLITICO's Holly Otterbein wrote. "PRESIDENT TRUMP TO McCORMICK: YOU'RE FIRED," a chyron in the ad read. McCormick's team complained to TV station managers and got the ad changed.

Dave McCormick speaks during a news conference.

Dave McCormick speaks during a news conference. | Andre Penner/AP Photo

As for the rest of the candidates on the air: Carla Sands, the former U.S. ambassador to Denmark, has spent $2.1 million on TV ads and attorney George Bochetto has spent $100,000. Jeff Bartos, a real estate developer, has spent $128,000, and the Jobs for Our Future PAC has spent over $1 million supporting him.

In more Pennsylvania money news: Family Friendly Action PAC is launching a new "mid seven figures" independent expenditure, first reported in Score, in the Senate contest. The PAC hired Pennsylvania Democratic strategist Rachele Fortier to lead the campaign, which will boost the eventual Democratic nominee for Senate. Fortier serves now as state director for Family Friendly Pennsylvania. The PAC is focused on "engaging voters around care issues, including paid family and medical leave and affordable elder and child care." Family Friendly Action PAC spent nearly $18 million to boost now-President Joe Biden and Democratic Senate candidates in key states in 2020.

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Down the ballot

FIRST IN SCORE: THE CASH DASH — Pennsylvania state Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who is effectively running unopposed in the Democratic primary for governor, tells us he raised $6.3 million in the final quarter of 2021, POLITICO's Holly Otterbein writes in to Score. That brings his year-end fundraising total to $13.4 million — more than former Govs. Tom Wolf, Tom Corbett and Ed Rendell had raked in by the same point in their runs, his campaign points out. He has $13.5 million on hand.

— Arizona Republican Mark Finchem, the Trump-endorsed secretary of state candidate, raised more than $660,000 in 2021, POLITICO's Zach Montellaro wrote. Finchem raised more than his GOP primary opponents' combined hauls. Former Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes raised about $385,000, and state House Minority Leader Reginald Bolding reported $200,000. Finchem "has made the former president's lies about the 2020 election results a cornerstone of his campaign."

— Indiana Republican Stu Barnes-Israel raised $100,000 in the first four days of his campaign IN-09 campaign to replace retiring Rep. Trey Hollingsworth (R-Ind.) . The haul is first reported in Morning Score. Barnes-Israel, a combat veteran, launched his campaign on Jan. 20.

— Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) raised over $1.5 million in the fourth quarter of the year and had $6 million in cash on hand. The fourth quarter spanned Oct. 1-Dec. 31. Year-end reports are due to the FEC on Jan. 31.

GETTING IN — Rhode Island state Sen. Jessica de la Cruz is running in the GOP primary to replace retiring Rep. Jim Langevin (D-R.I.), WPRI's Ted Nesi reported. Meanwhile, Democratic state Treasurer Seth Magaziner is considering ending his gubernatorial campaign to run for Langevin's seat. Democrat Omar Bah is already running in the congressional primary, while state Rep. Ed Pacheco is expected to launch a bid today. Former state Police Col. Brendan Doherty said he would not run for the seat.

— New Hampshire Republican Kevin Smith launched a bid against Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), WMUR'S Adam Sexton reported. Smith, the Londonderry town manager, will face retired Army General Don Bolduc in the Republican primary.

ENDORSEMENT ALERT — The Next 50 PAC endorsed a slate of Democratic candidates, the group's first set of candidates ahead of the 2022 midterms. The Next 50 is focused on electing a diverse group of "young, next-generation candidates." The group is backing Democratic Senate hopeful Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin, Molly Gray in VT-AL, Jevin Hodge in AZ-01 and Gabe Vasquez in NM-02. The PAC also endorsed secretary of state candidates Cisco Aguilar in Nevada and Bee Nguyen in Georgia. Further down the ballot, the group endorsed state Senate candidates Samra Brouk in New York and Janelle Perez in Florida, and state House candidates Ricky Hurtado in North Carolina and Jennifer O'Mara in Pennsylvania.

— CHC BOLD PAC, the campaign arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, endorsed Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez (D-N.M.) for reelection.

— The conservative Club for Growth PAC endorsed Georgia Republican Rich McCormick in GA-06. McCormick is running in a crowded GOP primary for the seat, after it was redrawn and Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Ga.) opted to run in the new GA-07.

— Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts and former Gov. Dave Heineman endorsed GOP state Sen. Mike Flood for NE-01, Omaha World-Herald's Martha Stoddard reported, a blow to Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R-Neb.) , who was recently indicted. Ricketts and Heineman did not say whether they believe Fortenberry is guilty of the charges against him, which include allegedly making false statements to federal agents and accepting an illegal campaign contribution.

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FIRST IN SCORE: STAFFING UP — Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak hired Reeves Oyster as deputy communications director for his reelection campaign. Oyster served as traveling press secretary for Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly and previously worked for the Kansas state Democratic party and SKDK.

— David Kieve is the new president of EDF Action. Kieve previously served as director of public engagement for the White House Council on Environmental Quality. Kieve was director of early states for Biden's campaign, with a particular focus on Nevada.

AND THE NOMINEES ARE — Biden nominated a former lawyer for Georgia Democrat Stacey Abrams to join the board governing the FEC, POLITICO's Zach Montellaro wrote. The president nominated Dara Lindenbaum, a campaign finance attorney who served as general counsel on Abrams' 2018 bid for governor and deputy general counsel for former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley's 2016 presidential bid. Lindenbaum would replace commissioner Steven Walther.

THE COWBOY STATE — Wyoming Republican Harriet Hageman, who is challenging Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) won the Wyoming Republican State Central Committee's straw poll, the Casper Star Tribune's Victoria Eavis reported. Hageman was endorsed by Trump to take on Cheney, one of the 10 Republicans who voted for the former president's impeachment after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Hageman won 59 votes in the straw poll, while Cheney received six and state Sen. Anthony Bouchard received two and Denton Knapp only got one vote.

THE MAP LINES — Republicans on Ohio's redistricting commission passed new legislative maps, The Columbus Dispatch's Jessie Balmert reported. The maps will head to the state Supreme Court for review, after the court tossed out state lawmakers' first maps because they did not comply with anti-gerrymandering provisions in the state constitution.

— The New Mexico state Republican Party filed a lawsuit claiming the state's new congressional map is a Democratic gerrymander, the Albuquerque Journal's Dan Boyd wrote. The suit alleges "the Democratic-backed map redrawing the boundaries of New Mexico's three congressional districts for the next decade intentionally chops up Republican voting strongholds."

— Rhode Island Republicans claim the state's redistricting commission violated the Open Meetings Act three dozen times, the Boston Globe's Edward Fitzpatrick reported. State Republican Party chair Sue Cienki filed a complaint with state Attorney General Peter Neronha alleging the commission voted on new "House, Senate, and congressional maps on Jan. 12 without providing adequate notice to the public of which maps they would vote on."

THANKS, BUT NO THANKS — Former Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) doesn't want help for Biden on his gubernatorial campaign, the Dallas Morning News' Philip Jankowski wrote. O'Rourke is challenging GOP Gov. Greg Abbott, after losing to Cruz in 2018 and dropping out of the presidential primary in 2020. "I'm not interested in any national politician — anyone outside of Texas — coming into this state to help decide the outcome of this," O'Rourke said. "I think we all want to make sure that we're working with, listening to and voting with one another here in Texas."

PARTY PROBLEMS — The Arizona state Democratic Party's executive committee passed a resolution to censure Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), the Arizona Republic's Yvonne Wingett Sanchez wrote. The censure came after Sinema declined to endorse changing Senate rules to help Democrats pass voting legislation in the chamber. The effort had the blessing of a top progressive. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said the censure was "absolutely" appropriate during an interview on CNN's "State of the Union" on Sunday, POLITICO's Nick Niedzwiadek reported.

THE PROCESS — Michael Gableman, the former Wisconsin state Supreme Court Justice overseeing a partisan review of the 2020 election, must turn over sealed copies of records related to the effort, a judge ruled on Friday. The records are due to Dane County Circuit Court Judge Frank Remington, who will review them and determine whether they should be released publicly, by Jan. 31. Gableman and state Assembly Speaker Robin Vos argued the records should remain private until the end of the review, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Molly Beck reported.

— Meanwhile, "a judge has kept in place his ruling that says absentee ballot drop boxes can't be used in Wisconsin," the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Patrick Marley reported. The ruling from Waukesha County Circuit Judge Michel Bohren pointed to state law, which says absentee ballots must be returned by mail or in person, and Bohren determined voters cannot have another person return their ballot. The case heads next to the state appeals court.

MIDTERM MESSAGING — Trump is flexing his political muscle in Republican gubernatorial primaries across the country, and it could doom blue state Republicans from claiming the top job, NBC News' Alex Seitz-Wald wrote. Term-limited Maryland GOP Gov. Larry Hogan said he is worried "his party now risks throwing out a winning formula that not only made the governors of Maryland, Massachusetts and Vermont Republicans but also made them three of the most consistently popular elected officials in the country." Trump endorsed state Del. Dan Cox to replace Hogan, a pro-Trump Republican who arranged buses to the Jan. 6 rally, while Hogan is backing former state Commerce Secretary Kelly Schulz. In Massachusetts, Trump frequently attacked moderate Gov. Charlie Baker as a "RINO." Baker is not seeking reelection.

EVERYTHING'S BIGGER IN TEXAS — After Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) home and campaign office were the site of FBI activity, progressives are hoping the issue could help knock the congressman out of office, BuzzFeed News' Lissandra Villa reported. Cuellar faces a primary from Jessica Cisneros, a Justice Democrats-backed progresive who challenged Cuellar in 2020.

TO THE LEFT, TO THE LEFT — The Wisconsin Democrats running in a crowded primary to take on Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) are embracing the party's left wing, Wall Street Journal's John McCormick wrote. The most prominent Democratic candidates — Barnes, state Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, Alex Lasry and Tom Nelson — are more likely to mention "liberal heroes like Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, compared to "the party's current national leader and White House occupant."

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Presidential big board

NOT GREAT, BOB — Nearly three-quarters of American adults say the country is on the wrong track, NBC's Mark Murray reported, according to a new NBC News poll. Seventy-two percent of Americans say the country is headed in the wrong direction, and 71 percent of those surveyed in October said the same. The survey also found "47 percent of registered voters saying they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 46 percent want Republicans in charge," but Republicans have an enthusiasm advantage. The poll surveyed 1,000 adults from Jan. 14-18.

CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY — "Gableman backs away from effort to jail two Wisconsin mayors" — Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

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