Monday, January 31, 2022

The FEC reports we can’t wait to see

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Score is your guide to the year-round campaign cycle.
Jan 31, 2022 View in browser
 
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By Stephanie Murray

Quick Fix

— It's that time again: Campaign finance reports are due to the FEC today,and there are plenty of numbers we want to see.

— Republican Governors Association Chair Doug Ducey and Democratic Governors Association Chair Roy Cooperspoke with POLITICO about their midterm predictions.

— New York state lawmakers unveiled a draft congressional map on Sundaythat could give Democrats three more seats in the House.

Good Monday morning. Email me at smurray@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @stephanie_murr.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, zmontellaro@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @ZachMontellaro and @allymutnick.

Days until the Texas primary: 29

Days until the CA-22 special election primary: 64

Days until the Indiana and Ohio primaries: 93

Days until the general election: 281

Days until the 2024 election: 1,009

 

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TopLine

MONEY MOVES — Are you ready to hit the refresh button on FEC.gov? Campaign finance reports will be flowing into the Federal Election Commission all day. Filings due today cover the fourth quarter, which spans Oct. 1-Dec. 31. Semi-annual filers also have to get their documents in today, which will cover July 1-Dec. 31.

A note to campaigns: You don't have to keep us waiting until 11:59 p.m. to put your reports online. But rest assured, we will be awake. Until then, here are some of the numbers we can't wait to see.

Did Democrats get their mojo back? After losing out to Democrats quarter after quarter, House Republicans were on par with their counterparts on the other side of the aisle at the end of the third quarter. Republicans' windfall has been fueled by small dollar donors, an area where Democrats used to have an advantage. The polls show Democrats have an enthusiasm gap against Republicans, and they're heading into a brutal political environment this fall. Losing ground in fundraising would be another source of panic for the party.

Can Trump-endorsed candidates compete? Last quarter, not a single Trump-endorsed challenger outraised a Republican lawmaker who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump. The ex-president's endorsement is a test of his political power now that he's out of office. So far, his backing hasn't turbocharged fundraising for his selected candidates. We'll be watching Rep. Liz Cheney versus GOP challenger Harriet Hageman, who has Trump's support.

Who's on top in member-vs-member House races? Redistricting has drawn several House lawmakers into the same districts, pitting them against one another in 2022. We'll keep an eye on West Virginia Republican Reps. David McKinley and Alex Mooney, who are waging war over the airwaves. A couple of other FEC reports to watch: Georgia Democratic Reps. Lucy McBath and Carolyn Bourdeaux, and Illinois Republican Reps. Mary Miller and Rodney Davis. Beyond fundraising totals, the reports will show who has the support of major donors — and grassroots, small-dollar donors.

It's never too early, so where does the 2024 race stand? Trump's political committees will post filings for the second half of the year today, as the former president flirts with a comeback bid in 2024. Trump's groups brought in $82 million and had $102 million in cash on hand, according to filings posted at the end of July. Beyond Trump, possible 2024 candidates like Sens. Ted Cruz and Tim Scott will file reports that will give an insight into how they've been raising money, and whether they're spending it to build campaigns-in-waiting.

Down the Ballot

SPLIT SCREEN — The nation's governors descended on Washington's Marriott Marquis over the weekend for the National Governors Association's winter meeting, the organization's first in-person meeting since the start of the pandemic. And while the organization itself is nonpartisan — a press conference kicking off the weekend with NGA Chair Asa Hutchinson was full of mostly kumbaya statements about finding ways for governors to work across party lines together and with the Biden administration, and promoting a cross-country initiative on computer science education for K-12 students — both party committee chairs were game to talk about the midterms.

Republican Governors Association Chair Doug Ducey and Democratic Governors Association Chair Roy Cooper talked with POLITICO's Zach Montellaro about their midterm predictions and the role they see current and past presidents playing in it. The Ducey interview. The Cooper interview.

THE MAP LINES — Democrats could gain three congressional seats under a map proposed by Democratic state lawmakers, POLITICO New York's Bill Mahoney wrote (for Pros). New York, which lost a seat due to reapportionment, has 19 Democrats and eight Republicans. But the number of Democrats could rise to 22 under the proposed map. The plan would account for the lost seat by "by eliminating the seat currently held by Republican Rep. Claudia Tenney, who lives in the Utica area. Much of Tenney's seat would join the swing district currently held by Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado."

— A Pennsylvania judge heard arguments in the state's redistricting case at the end of last week, Spotlight PA's Kate Huangpu reported. "The state court system is set to pick the next map just days after Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf vetoed a proposal sent to him by the Republican-controlled legislature," Huangpu wrote.

BATTLE FOR THE SENATE — Democrats Val Demings of Florida and Cheri Beasley of North Carolina cleared the Senate primary fields in their respective states by raising tons of cash and quelling fears about electability, POLITICO's Maya King reported.

"In the process of squeezing out top prospective challengers with a show of political force, the two Democrats managed to break through a different kind of barrier to high office — longstanding perceptions about the profile of an electable statewide candidate. In the past, those perceptions have often worked against Black candidates," Maya wrote.

THE CASH DASH — House Majority PAC and its sister organization House Majority Forward raised a combined $55 million in 2021, the groups announced. Individually, House Majority PAC ended the year with $39.1 million in cash on hand.

— Texas GOP Gov. Greg Abbott accused Democratic opponent Beto O'Rourke, the former congressman, of violating "campaign finance reporting laws by misreporting more than $1.7 million of in-kind contributions as also being expenditures," the Dallas Morning News' Robert Garrett wrote.

— Democrats surpassed Republicans in dark money spending in the 2020 election, The New York Times' Kenneth Vogel and Shane Goldmacher reported. An analysis found "15 of the most politically active nonprofit organizations that generally align with the Democratic Party spent more than $1.5 billion in 2020 — compared to roughly $900 million spent by a comparable sample of 15 of the most politically active groups" aligned with Republicans. The Sixteen Thirty Fund, a group aligned with the left, received donations as large as $50 million, according to the Times.

PARTY PROBLEMS — Democratic National Committee chair Jaime Harrison is at odds with the White House, as the midterms approach and Biden's approval rating remains underwater, NBC's Natasha Korecki reported. "Key decisions for the committee are made by White House Deputy Chief of Staff Jen O'Malley Dillon, who speaks frequently with other DNC officials but only about three times a month by Zoom with Harrison," and Harrison has primarily remained in his home state of South Carolina rather than visit donors or the DNC headquarters.

THE KEYSTONE STATE — The Pennsylvania state Democratic Party declined to endorse a candidate to replace retiring Sen. Pat Toomey, POLITICO's Holly Otterbein reported. "The non-endorsement is a disappointment for Conor Lamb, who has been trailing behind primary frontrunner John Fetterman, the lieutenant governor, in polls and fundraising," Holly wrote. Lamb had "hustled behind the scenes to capture the party's blessing in the Senate race," making calls and even sending campaign-style mailers.

— Pennsylvania Republican Mehmet Oz is up with a new ad attacking Dave McCormick as "China's friend, not ours." Oz and McCormick are two of the many Republicans running for Senate.

ENDORSEMENT ALERT — Rep. Madison Cawthorn endorsed Arizona Republican Blake Masters, who is challenging Sen. Mark Kelly. Cawthorn is the youngest House lawmaker, and Masters would be the youngest Republican member of the Senate if he is elected.

RETIREMENT WATCH — Rep. Marcy Kaptur has committed to run for reelection, even as dozens of other House Democrats announce their retirements, NBC News' Henry Gomez reported. Kaptur's district could become more red in redistricting, and the DCCC recently added her to its list of Frontline members, the party's most vulnerable lawmakers running for reelection.

DROPPING OUT — South Carolina Republican Graham Allen ended his campaign against Rep. Tom Rice, The Post and Courier's Andy Shain reported. "President Trump was clear. One candidate against RINOs. I refuse to allow my own pride to get in the way of fighting for what this Country needs," Allen, a Trump ally, wrote in a Facebook post. Rice is one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump.

Meanwhile, Rice is up with a new positive TV ad . "Through storms and floods and now pandemic, I stood shoulder to shoulder with you and I've delivered help," Rice says in the 30-second spot.

ON THE AIRWAVES — Rep. Jeff Fortenberry is up with a new ad attacking Republican primary opponent Mike Flood. The commercial highlight's Flood's "vote to extend taxpayer funded healthcare benefits to illegals" and ties him to President Joe Biden.

— Nebraska Republicans Brett Lindstrom and Jim Pillen are up with new ads for their gubernatorial campaigns. In his 30-second spot, Lindstrom emphasizes his biography and calls for a new generation of leadership. Pillen takes aim at liberals in his ad, saying: "You know what really ticks me off? Those crazy liberals in Washington who want to cancel everyone and everything."

— The Club for Growth is up with a new ad attacking Alabama Republican Katie Britt. The Club is backing Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Ala.) to replace retiring Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.). The new ad ties Britt to Cheney, one of Trump's top Republican enemies.

STAFFING UP — Max Flugrath joins the Georgia state Democratic Party as senior communications adviser, focusing on the race for governor and the primary between GOP Gov. Brian Kemp and former Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.). Flugrath previously served as communications strategy director for the Anti-Defamation League's Southern Division in Atlanta, and is an alum of Florida state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried's office and campaign.

BALLOT BATTLE — "A Pennsylvania state court on Friday struck down the law allowing any voter to cast a ballot by mail," POLITICO's Zach Montellaro wrote, although the decision will be appealed to the state Supreme Court. The decision was a win for Republicans who are pushing to eliminate voting by mail. A panel of judges ruled legislation that passed with bipartisan support in 2019 violated the state constitution. State Attorney General Josh Shapiro, a Democrat running for governor, said the ruling will be appealed. An appeal would trigger a stay of the lower court's ruling.

— "Georgia voters were 45 times more likely to have their mail ballot applications rejected—and ultimately not vote as a result" in November's municipal elections, compared to 2020, Mother Jones' Ryan Little and Ari Berman reported. "If that same rejection rate were extrapolated to the 2020 race, more than 38,000 votes would not have been cast in a presidential contest decided by just over 11,000 votes," according to Mother Jones' analysis. Republicans passed new voting restrictions last year.

NEW DETAILS — Louisiana Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards kept quiet about the deadly arrest of Ronald Greene during his difficult reelection campaign in 2019, The Associated Press' Jim Mustian and Jake Bleiberg wrote. State troopers had engaged in "a violent, lengthy struggle" with Greene that led to his death, but told his family and wrote in official reports he had died from a car crash. "What the governor knew, when he knew it and what he did have become questions in a federal civil rights investigation of the deadly encounter," according to the AP.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 
Presidential Big Board

CALL TO ORDER — Members of the Democratic National Committee are taking aim at the Iowa caucuses, after the key presidential state fumbled the 2020 Democratic presidential race, POLITICO's Elena Schneider and David Siders reported. The DNC committee held a virtual meeting to discuss the party's rules on Saturday and "signaled a willingness to overhaul the primary calendar ahead of 2024," even discussing New Hampshire's place on the primary calendar.

"Any time the trajectory of the race changes so significantly by the time you get to South Carolina, it means we need to look at what's happening," said Yvette Lewis, chair of the Maryland state Democratic Party and a member of the committee.

CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY — "Justice touts achievements, tells haters to kiss Babydog's hiney in delayed State of the State address" — Charleston Gazette-Mail

 

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