We Did it: 7 big 2022 midterm questions to answer this week

May 23, 2022

TOP LINE

HERE WE GO AGAIN — It's another big week of 2022 primaries. And we've got questions we're eager to see answered:

What's next for Brian Kemp? The Georgia governor's race was one of former President Donald Trump's biggest bets of 2022 — but Kemp appears in firm control of the primary despite Trump's support for David Perdue.

It speaks to the difficulty Trump is having in governors races so far. If he wins, Kemp's campaign will quickly pivot to November and Democrat Stacey Abrams. Will Trump and his fans within the party come back around to Kemp after the primary is settled? Keep an eye, too, on the secretary of state's race, where incumbent Brad Raffensperger is also under pressure from Trump.

Does the national fight over abortion lead to Rep. Henry Cuellar's (D-Texas) defeat? Cuellar is facing a competitive primary runoff against Jessica Cisneros — and it seems like the timing couldn't be worse for him in terms of abortion gaining salience as an issue in 2022. Yes, there are anti-abortion Latino Democrats like Cuellar in South Texas, but the arc of the campaign shows how the issue is working against him.

Late ads from Cisneros and EMILY's List have picked up on the issue, while the pro-Cuellar Mainstream Democrats super PAC tried to muddy the waters by saying that Cuellar "opposes a ban on abortion." We'll see how the issue reflects into the general, where Republicans want to build on recent progress in the district and make a real race of it.

Who wins the member-versus-member showdown in Georgia? These primaries usually take top billing, but the contest between Democratic Reps. Lucy McBath and Carolyn Bourdeaux has been overshadowed by the Cuellar primary on the same date. And the campaign never seemed to heat up the same way as others. McBath is seen by many Dems as a bigger star in the party, and she's gotten a lot more outside support: $5.6 million in TV ads, per AdImpact, from the groups including Mike Bloomberg's Independence USA PAC.

Do this week's GOP Senate primaries provide any surprises? Three Republicans are battling for two runoff spots in Alabama's GOP Senate primary — even though Rep. Mo Brooks was left for dead after Trump withdrew his endorsement. But he appears to be back in contention, POLITICO's Natalie Allison reports , as Mike Durant, Katie Britt and their allies spent recent weeks more focused on each other. (Brooks, you may recall, had his endorsement pulled after Trump accused him of going "woke" by for saying the GOP needed to look ahead instead of backward at the 2020 election.)

Keep an eye on Sen. John Boozman's primary in Arkansas, too. The incumbent has faced a Richard Uihlein-financed challenge from the right from Jake Bequette.

What's the count for Pennsylvania's GOP Senate nomination? That's right, we're heading into new primaries and still waiting for results from last week. That's how close the fight between Mehmet Oz and Dave McCormick is . (The Democratic fight in Oregon's 5th District is also unresolved so far, for other reasons — more on that below.)

Back to Pennsylvania: Based on what we know right now, McCormick may not be able to overtake Oz in the initial vote count. What he could do, though, is narrow the margin to a relatively handful of votes, at which point the mandatory recount could make a difference in the result, if it corrects an error or two in the initial tally.

How does Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene fare in her primary? Unlike fellow controversial Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.), there's little thought that the far-right Greene could lose renomination this week. But keep an eye on her showing nonetheless — weaker-than-expected results could push her adversaries within the GOP to mount a more serious effort to unseat her in 2024.

Among Greene's challengers is Jennifer Strahan, who has raised about $400,000 and was endorsed in March by the Republican Jewish Coalition. The group memorably described Strahan to Jewish Insider as, among other things, a "conservative who doesn't traffic in antisemitic conspiracy theories, doesn't speak to white nationalist organizations and doesn't applaud and cheer on" Vladimir Putin. (No word on whether the Bluth boys helped with the branding there.)

And a question looking forward to next week: What are you going to do on a rare empty Tuesday? That's right, readers … there are no primaries on Tuesday, May 31. It's almost like getting a four-day weekend. Get those wild mid-week plans ready now — I'm planning to start reading Andy Weir's "Project Hail Mary," if I don't manage to crack it open earlier this week — before we dive back into a string of primary-packed Tuesdays in June.

Got other questions (or book recs)? You can reach me at sbland@politico.com or on Twitter at @PoliticoScott.

Days until the Texas runoff and the Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia primaries: 1

Days until the California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota primaries: 15

Days until the Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina primaries: 22

Days until the D.C. and Virginia primaries: 29

Days until the Colorado, Illinois, New York, Oklahoma and Utah primaries: 36

Days until the general election: 169

Days until the 2024 election: 897

HAPPENING WEDNESDAY—A WOMEN RULE TALK ON THE MIDTERMS : Join POLITICO'S Women Rule for a conversation with the women running the midterm campaigns and how they are shaping messaging and strategy for their candidates. The program will look into what a win for either party could mean for access to reproductive health care, economic advancement of women, and how the final stages of the Covid-19 pandemic are managed. REGISTER HERE.

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CAMPAIGN INTEL

HABEMUS MAPAM — "Final New York maps lead to midnight shuffle of congressional delegation," by POLITICO's Bill Mahoney: "The maps are not a drastic overhaul from drafts that threw the state's elections into chaos on Monday and threatened Democrats' hopes of picking up several House seats from Republicans in November." The answer to the question everyone was wondering ahead of the final maps: "Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones join[ed] what could be a massive field in New York City for an open seat well south of his current one." The contenders so far include former Mayor Bill de Blasio and state Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou." Do the read the full analysis, including an interactive map from our colleagues.

TEXAS TWO-STEP — "House Dems shun primary fight against anti-abortion incumbent," by POLITICO's Ally Mutnick and Sarah Ferris: "House Democrats have vowed to do whatever it takes to protect abortion rights. But there's one step many don't want to consider. Only a handful of them have endorsed the primary challenger running against Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar — their only colleague who opposes codifying Roe v. Wade into law — in a Tuesday runoff in Texas. And as dozens of House Democrats gathered on the Capitol steps earlier this month to rally support for abortion rights, they really didn't want to talk about why."

WAITING GAME IN OREGON — "Clackamas County Clerk Can't Say When She Will Even Have a Timeline for Counting Vote, Much Less Certifying It," Willamette Week reports: "Clackamas County Clerk Sherry Hall said today she couldn't provide a detailed timeline to the Oregon secretary of state on when all votes will be counted in the bungled election that leaves the fate of [Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader], among others, in the balance. Nor did Hall have any response when asked why she didn't act with greater urgency when she discovered two weeks ago that some of the ballots had blurry bar codes and couldn't be read by counting machines. … 'I didn't think of it,' Hall said. 'There were a lot of things going on.'

— "… Clackamas is Schrader's home county, and he leads McLeod-Skinner there by 55% to 44%, but that lead is based on just 4,069 votes counted."

MORE ON PENNSYLVANIA — "McCormick and Oz joust over counting of undated ballots," by POLITICO's Holly Otterbein and Zach Montellaro: "Pennsylvania's too-close-to-call GOP Senate race is being rocked by an obscure court case involving mail ballots. In a letter first obtained by POLITICO, David McCormick's campaign wrote to the state's counties Friday and argued that they should count mail-in and absentee ballots that were submitted without dates on their envelopes. The McCormick team cited a judgment from a three-judge panel on the 3rd Circuit Court of Appeals that had been issued just hours earlier on Friday. … Casey Contres, the campaign manager for Oz, said in a statement that … it 'will oppose the McCormick legal team's request.'"

FIREHOUSE PRIMARIES — Virginia Republicans pick nominees in three House districts, via WTOP's Ivy Lyons: "District 5 Republicans renominated Rep. Bob Good for another term in office … Karina Lipsman has won the nomination for the 8th District … A crowded field of candidates and several rounds of vote counting has placed Hung Cao as the 10th District Republican nominee. Hung Cao is a retired Navy captain who served in Special Operations for 25 years and returned from his last deployment in Afghanistan in Jan. 2021."

PAPER TRAIL — "Herschel Walker's ties to veterans program face scrutiny," by the Associated Press' Brian Slodysko and Jeff Amy: "Herschel Walker, the football legend and leading Republican Senate candidate in Georgia, often boasts of his work helping service members and veterans struggling with mental health. … But corporate documents, court records and Senate disclosures … present a portrait of a celebrity spokesman who overstated his role in a for-profit program that is alleged to have preyed upon veterans and service members while defrauding the government."

GOING GREEN — NRDC Action Fund is endorsing another nine Democratic candidates for reelection: New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, Sen. Mark Kelly (Arizona) and Reps. Joe Neguse (CO-02), Rosa DeLauro (CT-03), Angie Craig (MN-02), Chris Pappas (NH-01), Donald Payne Jr. (NJ-10), Susan Wild (PA-07) and Veronica Escobar (TX-16).

AS SEEN ON TV

— Rep. Tom Rice (R-S.C.), facing a tough June primary after voting to impeach Trump, is out with an attack ad against opponent Russell Fry hitting him on gas tax hikes and government spending.

— A new spot from Majority Forward airing in New Hampshire features a constituent praising Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan for supporting bipartisan legislation reining in surprise medical billing.

— Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), battling in a crowded GOP Senate primary, is out with the latest of many Republican spots this primary season focused on girls sports.

POLL POSITION

— East Carolina University's new poll of the North Carolina Senate race has GOP nominee Ted Budd leading Democrat Cheri Beasley 47 percent to 39 percent among registered voters, while President Joe Biden's approval rating stands at 35-55.

— "Incumbent Sen. Mike Lee has a large lead over his two challengers for the Republican nomination in the U.S Senate race in Utah," via Deseret News' Dennis Romboy: "But the latest Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll shows him with less than 50% of the vote and found that a quarter of voters have yet to make up their minds with less than six weeks before the June 28 primary election."

— "Ronchetti enjoys big lead over GOP rivals in governor's race," by the Albuquerque Journal's Dan Boyd: "Forty-five percent of likely primary election voters surveyed recently said they would vote for Ronchetti, a former KRQE-TV meteorologist who ran unsuccessfully for an open U.S. Senate seat in 2020. The next-closest candidate was Rebecca Dow, a state representative, who received the backing of 17% of the GOP voters surveyed."

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THE CASH DASH

— An eight-figure contribution to know from Friday's campaign finance reporting deadline: Jeff Yass, the Philadelphia-area Republican billionaire, gave $10 million to School Freedom Fund in April, leaving the group with $11.3 million in the bank as of April 30. Yass previously seeded the group with $5 million last year.

— The super PAC has spent in several GOP Senate primaries so far, opposing Pat McCrory in North Carolina and backing Brooks in Alabama and Adam Laxalt in Nevada.

CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY — "Early Voting wins 147th running of the Preakness Stakes" — ESPN

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