We Did it: T-1 day until the next big primaries

May 16, 2022

Presented by PREMION

TOP LINE

ONE DAY MORE — Some of the wackiest, weirdest and most consequential primaries on the midterm map will come to a close tomorrow night. Voters head to the polls in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky, where crowded primaries on both sides of the aisle will give us an action-packed Tuesday night.

Pennsylvania is the state to watch, where the Republican primaries for Senate and governor are chaotic and unpredictable, to say the least. Meanwhile, a cryptocurrency mogul has some serious cash on the line in Oregon, while progressives face primary tests in several congressional districts.

Here are five questions we'll have answers to after polls close.

Can the Pennsylvania wild cards pull off wins in two hot races? Some prominent Republicans have spent the last week scrambling to stop two members of their own party from winning primaries for Senate and governor. Conservative commentator Kathy Barnette surged in Senate primary polls last week, forcing frontrunners Dr. Mehmet Oz and former hedge fund executive Dave McCormick to recalibrate their campaigns in the final days of the race. Meanwhile, some Republicans are worried that state Sen. Doug Mastriano could ruin their general election chances if he wins the GOP primary for governor, and are lining up to stop him.

How far does money go? Oz and McCormick, two wealthy top-tier Senate candidates, have spent millions on campaign loans over the primary cycle. Will the combined $25.2 million Oz and McCormick have spent on political ads (that's 44 percent of the total $57.1 million in GOP spending) pay off for either of them, or will Barnette's last-minute momentum be more valuable than all that cash? Another big-money race to watch is in Oregon, where a cryptocurrency mogul has poured $7.3 million into political ads boosting Democrat Carrick Flynn via the Protect Our Future super PAC in the safe blue OR-06.

How do President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump's endorsement records fare? Biden has only endorsed two midterm candidates this cycle, while Trump is backing well over 100. Biden is supporting Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.), who has a primary challenge from progressive Jamie McLeod-Skinner. Trump is supporting Oz for Senate and Mastriano for governor in Pennsylvania. In North Carolina, Trump is backing Rep. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) in a three-way primary against former Gov. Pat McCrory and former Rep. Mark Walker (R-N.C.). The ex-president is also boosting Idaho Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin, who is challenging GOP Gov. Brad Little in a primary.

Will progressives flex some muscle? Progressives had a tough night in Ohio at the beginning of the month, when Rep. Shontel Brown (D-Ohio) beat former state Sen. Nina Turner, a Bernie Sanders campaign alum. The left has a few races to watch tomorrow night, including Summer Lee in PA-12, who received a campaign boost from Sanders last week. Sen.Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) recently endorsed Democrats Andrea Salinas in OR-06 and Nida Allam in the crowded NC-04 primary to replace retiring Rep. David Price (D-N.C.).

Can North Carolina's most controversial congressman survive? Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.) has been hit by scandal after scandal over the last several weeks, as political enemies unloaded opposition research after Cawthorn's viral remark that members of his own party had invited him to an orgy and that he'd seen a lawmaker use cocaine. The very public controversies are piling up — Google search trends show queries for "Madison Cawthorn" have spiked in April and May — and it's not clear whether Cawthorn will make it through his reelection campaign.

Want more? POLITICO's Steve Shepard breaks down tomorrow night's primaries in a new video.

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Good Monday morning. Email me at smurray@politico.com and follow me on Twitter at @stephanie_murr.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, zmontellaro@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @ZachMontellaro and @allymutnick.

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For winning campaigns, every CTV impression counts
With more and more voters cutting the cord, CTV is an essential media channel for engaging them. A new report by Campaigns & Elections and Premion helps political marketers navigate the increasingly fragmented and complex streaming TV marketplace and provides insights for effective planning and buying of CTV advertising. Download the complimentary report, Streaming TV and the Political Market: Navigating CTV Advertising in the 2022 Campaign Cycle here.

Days until the Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries: 1

Days until the Texas runoff and the Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia primaries: 8

Days until the California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota primaries: 22

Days until the general election: 176

Days until the 2024 election: 904

CAMPAIGN INTEL

THE KEYSTONE STATE — "Pennsylvania Senate candidate Fetterman hospitalized with stroke," by David Cohen, POLITICO: "Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is recovering from a stroke he suffered on Friday, his campaign announced on Sunday. 'I had a stroke that was caused by a clot from my heart being in an A-fib rhythm for too long,' he said in a statement released from Penn Medicine Lancaster General Hospital. Fetterman also released a video from his hospital room."

— "Trump endorses Mastriano for Pennsylvania governor," by Zach Montellaro, Meridith McGraw and Holly Otterbein, POLITICO: "Pennsylvania state Sen. Doug Mastriano on Saturday landed the coveted endorsement of former President Donald Trump with days to go before the gubernatorial primary. The prospect of Trump's endorsement of Mastriano, a leading voice in the movement to overturn the 2020 election results and who was present at the Capitol during the Jan. 6 insurrection, had alarmed local and national Republicans concerned about his ability to win a general election."

— "Pa. Senate candidate blasts foes for criticism of bigoted remarks," by David Cohen, POLITICO: "Kathy Barnette, now one of the frontrunners in Pennsylvania's Republican Senate primary, on Sunday responded to a spate of recent criticism by saying that her record is being misrepresented and distorted."

— "Oz, Barnette, McCormick scramble across Pa. ahead of Tuesday's extremely close primary," by Jonathan Tamari, Julia Terruso, and Chris Brennan, The Philadelphia Inquirer: "A roller-coaster Pennsylvania campaign season careened toward a breathless finish Saturday as candidates raced to firehouses, diners, public parks, and an indoor rally, making a final push in some of the country's most critical races."

— "How 'Just a Dude' in Shorts Became a Senate Front-Runner," by Katie Glueck, The New York Times: "Mr. Fetterman, the lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania, does not sound like any other leading politician in recent memory. And standing roughly 6-foot-8, with his uniform of basketball shorts and hoodies bearing occasional schmutz, he plainly does not look like one."

PRIMARY SOURCES — "A Fracture in Idaho's G.O.P. as the Far Right Seeks Control," by Mike Baker, The New York Times: "The bitter intraparty contest between Ms. McGeachin and Mr. Little, set to be settled in the state's primary election on Tuesday, reflects the intensifying split that is pitting Idaho's conventional pro-gun, anti-abortion, tax-cut conservatives against a growing group of far-right radicals who are agitating to seize control of what is already one of the most conservative corners of the Republican Party in the country ."

— "Primaries spotlight coming battles over state supreme courts," by Andrew DeMillo and Gary Robertson, Associated Press: "Getting less billing, but with equal long-term political importance, is a contest that will shape the fall matchups for two seats on the state Supreme Court. At stake this year is whether the court remains majority Democrat or flips to Republican control, with consequences for decisions on redistricting and issues championed by Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper."

— "Challenges for Finkenauer after Iowa Senate ballot woes," by Thomas Beaumont, Associated Press: "Abby Finkenauer 's bid to clinch the Democratic nomination for a U.S. Senate seat in Iowa was not supposed to be so fraught. Finkenauer, 33, is one of the more prominent Democrats in the state, earning a wunderkind reputation in the Legislature before toppling a Republican congressman in 2018."

CONVENTIONAL WISDOM — "Minnesota GOP backs Scott Jensen in race to unseat Gov. Tim Walz," by Jessie Van Berkel and Hunter Woodall, Star Tribune: "Scott Jensen won the Minnesota Republican Party's endorsement for governor Saturday, picking up his party's backing on the strength of a campaign built around opposition to pandemic restrictions and concern about COVID-19 vaccines. Delegates gathered at the GOP convention in Rochester chose the former state senator and doctor as their top pick to take on DFL Gov. Tim Walz in November after a heated endorsement fight that started with a crowded field of contenders and featured multiple rounds of balloting."

BIDEN TIME — "How Joe Biden went from predicting a Republican 'epiphany' to declaring war on the 'MAGA Party,'" by Sahil Kapur, NBC News: "Three years ago, candidate Joe Biden boldly predicted that once he defeated Donald Trump, Republicans would have an 'epiphany,' free themselves from the shackles of the far-right and work cooperatively with Democrats toward consensus. … This week, President Biden rolled out a new message."

PARTY PROBLEMS — "Senate Republicans' electability headache," by Burgess Everett, POLITICO: "Senate Republicans have one clear edict from Mitch McConnell heading into the midterms: Embrace electable candidates who can reclaim the majority. Actually achieving that goal is proving impossible."

EVERYTHING'S BIGGER IN TEXAS — "In Texas visit, Donald Trump rallies Republican voters to deliver a GOP wave in November midterms," by Andrew Zhang, Texas Tribune: "Former president Donald Trump criticized Democrats for a litany of issues Saturday, including inflation and immigration, during an Austin rally where he urged conservative supporters to help the Republican Party take control of Congress in November's midterm elections."

THE MAP LINES — "DeSantis appeals Florida judge's order blocking his redistricting map," by Matt Dixon, POLITICO Florida: "The administration of Gov. Ron DeSantis has appealed a state judge's order blocking the Republican governor's congressional redistricting map, the latest move in the long-running fight over redistricting in the state. Secretary of State Laurel Lee filed a notice of appeal to the 1st District Court of Appeals on Thursday night, which triggers an automatic stay in the case as it works its way through the appeals process."

TRUMP CARD — "More Republicans are working to undermine Trump endorsements," by Michael Scherer and Josh Dawsey, The Washington Post: "From Nebraska and Idaho to Pennsylvania and Georgia, Republicans have been actively campaigning — or quietly maneuvering — against Trump's picks in a way that could undermine his sway over the party."

HOME SWEET HOME — "Zinke's wife declaring primary residence in California as he runs in Montana," by Ben Lefebvre and Daniel Lippman, POLITICO: "Ryan Zinke, the former Trump Interior secretary now running for Congress again in Montana, has long faced questions about whether he lives in the state or in California. Now, new tax records uncovered by POLITICO show that Zinke's wife has designated the home she inherited years ago from her parents in Santa Barbara as her primary residence, as he wages a comeback campaign a thousand-plus miles north and east."

HINDSIGHT IS 2020 — "Georgia county under scrutiny after claim of post-election breach," by Emma Brown and Amy Gardner, The Washington Post: "A former elections supervisor in rural Coffee County, Ga., has told The Washington Post that she opened her offices to a businessman active in the election-denier movement to help investigate results she did not trust in the weeks after President Donald Trump's 2020 defeat."

YOU'VE GOT MAIL — "In early primaries, voters favor polling places over mail," by Christina Cassidy, Associated Press: "The great vote-by-mail wave appears to be receding just as quickly as it arrived. After tens of millions of people in the United States opted for mail ballots during the pandemic election of 2020, voters in early primary states are returning in droves to in-person voting this year."

AS SEEN ON TV

— "EMILY's List goes on air against Cuellar in Texas primary battle," by Ally Mutnick, POLITICO: "The super PAC arm of EMILY's List, Democrats' flagship pro-abortion rights group, is going on the air in Texas targeting Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar ahead of his primary runoff this month. Women Vote! booked $526,000 in TV ads Friday to support Jessica Cisneros, an immigration attorney challenging the longtime incumbent, according to AdImpact, a firm that tracks media buys."

THE CASH DASH

— "Democrats' moderate vs. progressive brawls draw record cash in primaries," by Elena Schneider, POLITICO: "House Democratic primaries are drawing record cash — even as they're almost guaranteed to lose their majority. Super PACs and other organizations have already dropped more than $53 million in Democratic House primaries this year, according to OpenSecrets, with four more months of nominating contests to go."

— "Biden posts $7.8M in-person haul, planning bigger money push," by Will Weissert and Zeke Miller, Associated Press: "Biden has taken in $7.8 million for Democrats by attending five in-person fundraisers since March, according to figures the Democratic National Committee provided to The Associated Press. That includes the $2 million he picked up in Maryland along with another $1 million he pulled in two days later when he swung through a Marriott ballroom in Chicago's South Loop to address about 50 people."

POLL POSITION

— "Pollsters prepare for major changes after presidential election misses," by Steve Shepard, POLITICO: "The polling industry is on the precipice of its biggest change in decades, as pollsters try to battle back from consecutive presidential election failures. Pollsters are increasingly embracing new methods in the run-up to the 2022 midterms after notable misses in recent races.

"Front of mind is the looming 2024 election cycle, when former President Donald Trump — whose support among the electorate has bedeviled pollsters trying to measure it for the past seven years, including missing low on Trump's vote before his 2016 win and underestimating the closeness of his 2020 loss — could be on the ballot for the third consecutive presidential election ."

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STAFFING UP

— CJ Pearson is now chief strategist for Republican Vernon Jones' Georgia congressional campaign.

Presidential Big Board

— "How Mike Pence climbed back into the 2024 race," by Adam Wren, POLITICO: "Mike Pence's plan is working. After years of loyal service and genuflecting as Donald Trump's former No. 2, Pence is capitalizing on carefully choreographed split screens with his former boss on everything from endorsements and appearances to policy and photo-ops."

— "What's the hottest spot to debut your 2020 election conspiracy film? Mar-a-Lago, of course." by Meridith McGraw, POLITICO: "Trump's private club has become the Grauman's Chinese Theater for the Hollywood-hating crowd. Just weeks before D'Souza's debut, a slew of Trump allies, friends, and conservative figures flew down to Palm Beach estate for the showing of a documentary, 'Rigged,' on the 2020 election. The film starred Trump himself, and was produced by David Bossie, the president of the conservative group Citizens United."

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY — "He's not appealing to me, … Even when people are like, 'He's cute.' I'm married to a 6-foot-6, 280-pound guy who likes to bow hunt. I don't see it. And I have an app for the weather, so I don't get it." — New Mexico state Rep. Rebecca Dow, who is running for governor, saying she does not understand the appeal of GOP primary opponent and former TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti, via the Santa Fe New Mexican.

A message from PREMION:

For winning campaigns, every CTV impression counts
With the explosive growth in streaming TV, more and more voters are cutting the cord and Connected TV (CTV) is an essential media channel for engaging them.

What are best practices when it comes to buying CTV? When should you be concerned about ad fraud and how can you best mitigate the risk? What should you do to ensure you have access to the CTV inventory you need this cycle? What does a smart CTV ad plan look like in 2022? A new report by Campaigns & Elections and Premion helps answer these questions and more.

The report is a must-read for political marketers who need to navigate the increasingly fragmented and complex streaming TV marketplace to effectively plan and buy CTV advertising.

Download the complimentary report, Streaming TV and the Political Market: Navigating CTV Advertising in the 2022 Campaign Cycle here.