We Did it: 6 midterm questions to answer this week

Jun 13, 2022

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TOP LINE

WHAT TO WATCH — We've got a big primary week on tap putting up plenty of questions about the state of American politics. Let's dive in:

How does Trump's influence shape South Carolina? The former president has endorsed two challengers on the GOP primary ballot this week in South Carolina: Katie Arrington, who is taking on Rep. Nancy Mace, and Russell Fry, who is facing impeachment-supporting Rep. Tom Rice.

Rice has long looked to be in trouble — POLITICO's Ally Mutnick wrote in February that he and Rep. Liz Cheney appeared to be "in the greatest peril of the seven [GOP impeachment supporters] who are running for reelection." But he has been defiant about his support for removing Trump from office last year. South Carolina's runoff rules could kick this primary to a one-on-one contest if no one gets 50 percent of the vote.

Mace didn't take that crucial vote that Rice did, and she appears in better shape. Alex Isenstadt reported last week that, in the proxy battle between pro-Mace Nikki Haley and Trump, Haley is the one conspicuously investing her time and name in the race at the end, while Trump hasn't gone back after an earlier rally — a signal of the expectations there.

What's next in the Trump movement's bid to take over election administration? Nevada Republican Jim Marchant isn't endorsed by Trump — but he's firmly part of the MAGA movement to take over secretary of state positions in the name of Trump's false claims that the 2020 election was stolen. His primary Tuesday is the latest battleground test for that effort since Georgia Republican Brad Raffensperger defeated a Trump-backed challenger in late May.

Marchant's primary bid this week will also play out against the backdrop of the Jan. 6 committee hearings about Trump's efforts to subvert the results of the last election.

— "Trump backers unbowed in push to overtake state election offices ," by POLITICO's Zach Montellaro: "The primary in Nevada is another reminder of the unusually high stakes in this year's campaigns for election administration positions — longtime political backwaters that have gotten little attention in the past. But followers of former President Donald Trump — and his false claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him — have poured into secretary of state races in 2022, especially in the battleground states that will play a key role in deciding the next presidential contest."

What will happen to Rep. Dina Titus? The veteran Democratic lawmaker's primary has been bubbling away for some time, with Amy Vilela running against her on a progressive platform including support for a Green New Deal and Medicare for All. But there was nothing quiet about Sen. Bernie Sanders' Thursday afternoon endorsement of Vilela.

The nod came with early voting almost complete and basically no time left to raise money, something Sanders has done for numerous endorsees with more lead time in the past. But it does raise the question of whether Vilela was running close enough to Titus that a last-minute boost could put her over the top. The Nevada Independent had a comprehensive outline of the primary last month.

How will the most expensive section of the House battlefield shake out? Democrats' gerrymander of Nevada made all three Las Vegas-area districts high-single digit Biden seats — the type of places that would lean Democratic in a neutral political environment but are all highly vulnerable to GOP takeover in a good Republican year.

Don't just take my word for it — whoever has the gold makes the rules, as they say . And the House campaign committees and super PACs have poured a collective $34 million in TV reservations into Las Vegas, the most by some margin of any media market so far.

Eight Republicans are battling for the nomination in the 1st District, including former Rep. Cresent Hardy, while five are lined up in the 3rd District GOP primary and three Republicans are competing in a comparatively roomy 4th District primary.

How does the top of the ticket shake out in Nevada? Former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt and Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo have the Trump endorsement in their respective GOP primaries for Senate and governor. They might not have needed them, and Laxalt has been pushed by veteran Sam Brown, while Lombardo has had a crowded GOP field to deal with. The winners will face two Democratic incumbents in a fully Democratic-controlled state — though it was also one of the closest states in the 2020 presidential election.

Does another Congressional Leadership Fund rescue operation pay off? Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Nev.) has benefited from hundreds of thousands of dollars in advertising from the GOP leadership-aligned super PAC, which has dipped into a number of primaries to protect incumbents and build an "effective" GOP majority in 2023. Who prompted the spending? Perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian, who is challenging Amodei this year after repeated runs for other federal offices.

What question did we miss that you're looking for answers on this week? Tell me at sbland@politico.com or @PoliticoScott.

Days until the Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina primaries: 1

Days until the Alabama runoff, D.C., Georgia runoff and Virginia primaries: 8

Days until the Colorado, Illinois, Mississippi runoff, New York (Senate), Oklahoma and Utah primaries: 15

Days until the general election: 148

Days until the 2024 election: 876

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CAMPAIGN INTEL

TOP FOUR — Sarah Palin leads in the early returns from Alaska's top-four special House primary, with counting set to be completed over the next week-plus. (Keep up with the results here .) The former governor has 30 percent support so far, while fellow Republican Nick Begich has 19 percent and independent Al Gross is at 13 percent. Next up in the race for fourth place: Democrat Mary Peltola (7.5 percent) and Republican Tara Sweeny (5.3 percent).

THE BIG ISSUE — Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) is among the group of 20 senators who struck a deal on a framework for a gun safety bill . The Democrat is up for a full term in one of the most closely divided states in the country, and he has been very vocal about gun policy for years since his wife, former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, was shot in 2011.

REDISTRICTING UPDATE — The 5th Circuit Court of Appeals vacated the stay on an order that Louisiana redraw its congressional districts and denied a "motion for stay pending appeal " in the case over Black representation in the state. We'll see what happens next — remember, the Supreme Court already ruled earlier this year that there wasn't enough time before the election for a district court to order Alabama to redraw its congressional map.

THE SUPREMES — "State supreme courts: Bottom of the ballot but top concern if Roe falls ," by POLITICO's Megan Messerly: "The possible end to federal abortion protections is spotlighting down-ballot races in the upcoming midterm elections, particularly for judges who could soon be asked to decide whether their state constitution protects a person's right to end a pregnancy. 'Everyone wants to talk about the sexy United States Senate race, or the governor's race. When it comes down to it, the state Supreme Court is going to determine abortion jurisprudence in the state of Ohio,' said Mike Gonidakis, president of Ohio Right to Life. 'State Supreme Court elections are paramount.'"

YOU AND ME, ME AND YOU — "A tale of 2 lieutenant governors trying to expand Dems' Senate majority," by POLITICO's Marianne LeVine and Holly Otterbein: "Unlike the rest of the Democratic Party, Mandela Barnes was an early fan of John Fetterman's and even donated a 'few bucks' to his long shot 2016 Senate campaign. More than five years later, Fetterman returned the favor and became a "day one" donor to Barnes."

ENDORSEMENT CORNER — "Working Families to drop Maloney endorsement and back Biaggi ," by POLITICO's Bill Mahoney and Anna Gronewald: "The small but influential party in March endorsed Maloney, who heads the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. But since then, New York's congressional maps were redrawn, and Maloney angered much of the left by announcing he was be running in the new district he lives in despite it heavily overlapping with the district won by party-backed Rep. Mondaire Jones in 2020 — prompting Jones to now run in New York City."

GO ON… — " Paladino: Saying Hitler 'kind of leader we need' was mistake," by AP's Carolyn Thompson: "Carl Paladino, a Republican running for Congress in western New York, said Thursday he was wrong to invoke Adolf Hitler when he said in an interview last year he was 'the kind of leader we need today' because of his ability to rally crowds. It was the second time this week that Paladino had to explain himself after announcing his campaign."

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

POLL POSITION

— "Sun-Times/WBEZ Poll: Downstate farmer beating the crop out of GOP establishment in gov race," by Chicago Sun-Times' Tina Sfondeles and WBEZ's Dave McKinney.

— "After poll shows Katie Britt surging in Senate race, Trump offers endorsement," by AP's Kim Chandler.

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AS SEEN ON TV

— The Club for Growth is out with a new attack ad against Republican Jim Lamon in the crowded Senate primary there. The Club is backing Blake Masters.

— The Jeff Yass-funded School Freedom Fund is tagging Republican Jake Evans as "woke" in the GOP primary runoff in GA-06.

— The Democratic Governors Association is out with another extremely subtle "attack ad" boosting Republican Darren Bailey as "pro-Trump" ahead of Illinois' gubernatorial primaries.

A message from PREMION:

For winning campaigns, every CTV impression counts
With the explosive growth in streaming TV, more and more voters are cutting the cord and Connected TV (CTV) is an essential media channel for engaging them.

What are best practices when it comes to buying CTV? When should you be concerned about ad fraud and how can you best mitigate the risk? What should you do to ensure you have access to the CTV inventory you need this cycle? What does a smart CTV ad plan look like in 2022? A new report by Campaigns & Elections and Premion helps answer these questions and more.

The report is a must-read for political marketers who need to navigate the increasingly fragmented and complex streaming TV marketplace to effectively plan and buy CTV advertising.

Download the complimentary report, Streaming TV and the Political Market: Navigating CTV Advertising in the 2022 Campaign Cycle here.

Presidential Big Board

— "DNC cuts 3 contenders as it chooses new early state presidential lineup," by POLITICO's Elena Schneider: "The Democratic National Committee narrowed its list of states vying for the early presidential nominating window from 20 to 17 on Saturday, cutting … three applicants — New York, Nebraska and Democrats Abroad … In a memo sent by the co-chairs of the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee, which was shared with POLITICO, the co-chairs explained all three applicants had 'issues that were both unavoidable and in enough conflict with the Committee's goals that it was prudent to make this decision now.'"

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY — "We're not exactly sure how to continue the mission we started; we are just sure we're going to do it." — Once (and future?) Pennsylvania Senate candidate Dave McCormick, via the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

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