CALIFORNIA DREAMING? — A pair of House Republicans could be in for a uniquely California nightmare. Reps. David Valadao and Young Kim are two of the GOP's most highly regarded incumbents, and for good reason — they won even though President Joe Biden did better in their districts than in any other Republican seat in 2020. But both appear to be facing uncomfortably close primary contests on Tuesday — and a loss by either could seriously endanger the GOP's hold on their swing seats in the fall. National Republicans are so concerned about this prospect that their top super PAC has poured some $1.9 million into their districts to prevent the incumbents from finishing behind another Republican in their June 7 all-party primary and getting locked out of November. Public polling has been scarce, but private surveys suggest that outcome is possible in both races. Valadao, running in a district Biden carried by 13 points, is one of the six House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump now running for reelection — and he's the only one who avoided getting a Trump-endorsed challenger. But even without Trump's support or the funds to run any TV ads, Republican Chris Mathys appears to pose a serious threat to Valadao. Sensing opportunity, House Majority PAC, an outside group tied to Speaker Nancy Pelosi, is airing a spot on TV and digital platforms highlighting Valadao's impeachment vote and calling Mathys "a true conservative" who is "100 percent pro-Trump and proud." In response, the Congressional Leadership Fund, a group aligned with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, has pumped more than $370,000 into the race and on Friday aired a TV ad hitting Mathys as weak on crime, according to AdImpact, a media tracking firm. Valadao is known for picking up Democratic and independent voters. However, Democrats landed a dream recruit this cycle in Rudy Salas, who has represented much of the district for the last decade in the state Assembly. Operatives see a scenario where Valadao gets shut out of the general election, especially if Salas siphons off some of Valadao's crossover vote while Mathys pulls from the right. Kim, one of the first three Korean-American women in Congress, was one of the GOP's top recruits in 2020, when she ousted Democratic Rep. Gil Cisneros in Orange County. But in her redrawn seat post-redistricting, 80 percent of the people are new to her — and she ended up in a primary with Greg Raths, a Mission Viejo councilman and Trump fanatic who was accused of making anti-Semitic comments. Kim and the Congressional Leadership Fund have spent a combined total of more than $2.9 million on primary ads, according to AdImpact, trying to keep her in the top-two. Biden carried the district by 2 points in 2020 and the likely Democratic nominee is Asif Mahmood, a physician. It is notoriously hard to accurately poll or predict California's all-party primary system , so it's possible both incumbents win handily. But if Raths or Mathys (or both) advance to the general, it would be a huge blow to GOP chances of holding those Biden-won seats. Valadao and Kim are proven fundraisers and also highly touted candidates that can bring tough districts in play for Republicans. The strong Republican political environment gives the GOP lots of paths to reclaiming the House majority even if Democrats flip these two California seats. But a loss by either incumbent would be a notable stumble for Republicans in a year where many other things are going right. Thoughts on the rest of the primary landscape? Let me know at amutnick@politico.com. Days until the California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota primaries: 1 Days until the Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina primaries: 8 Days until the D.C. and Virginia primaries: 15 Days until the Colorado, Illinois, New York, Oklahoma and Utah primaries: 22 Days until the general election: 155 Days until the 2024 election: 883
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