Monday, September 13, 2021

5 things to know about the California recall

Presented by Babbel: Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Score is your guide to the year-round campaign cycle.
Sep 13, 2021 View in browser
 
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By Stephanie Murray

Presented by Babbel

Editor's Note: Weekly Score is a weekly version of POLITICO Pro's daily Campaigns policy newsletter, Morning Score. POLITICO Pro is a policy intelligence platform that combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.

Quick Fix

— California voters will decide whether to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom tomorrow. Here are five things to know.

— Democratic candidates are knocking on doors again, bringing back the old-school, in-person campaign practice they abandoned in 2020 due to the pandemic.

— Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis is up for reelection in 2022, but he's spending time out of state ahead of a possible 2024 bid for president.

Good Monday morning. Email me at smurray@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @stephanie_murr.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, zmontellaro@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @ZachMontellaro and @allymutnick.

Days until the California recall: 1

Days until the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections, the OH-11 and OH-15 special elections and the FL-20 special primary: 50

Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 421

Days until the 2024 election: 1,149

 

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TopLine

GOING BACK TO CALI — President Joe Biden is headed to California today, where Newsom is on the defensive against a Republican-backed recall effort. The election is Tuesday, but millions of Californians have already voted. Here are five things to know about the California recall.

Polls indicate the recall will fail. Voters must answer two questions: Should Newsom be recalled, and if so, who should replace him? Fifty-six percent of voters say Newsom should remain in office, according to the FiveThirtyEight average, while 42 percent say he should be removed. The numbers have moved in Newsom's favor this summer. Democrats had worried liberal disinterest in the recall would allow engaged Republican voters to punch above their weight. But the polls are not all good for Democrats, according to POLITICO's Steve Shepard. Biden's approval rating has crashed, which could spell trouble for Democrats in 2022.

Biden is hitting the trail anyway. The president is headed to Long Beach to campaign with Newsom today, days after Vice President Kamala Harris stumped for the governor and former President Barack Obama cut a pro-Newsom recall ad. Biden's visit is part of a swing through three states Monday, and will be his first California trip as president, the Los Angeles Times' Eli Stokols wrote. The appearance will mark the president's second high-profile campaign appearance since taking the White House. Biden rallied for former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe in July, POLITICO's Chris Cadelago and Zach Montellaro reported.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is photographed during a TV interview.

Voters will decide whether to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Tuesday. | Ringo H.W. Chiu/AP Photo

Republicans are using Trump's 2020 playbook. Conservative frontrunner Larry Elder has not said whether he'll accept the recall election results, ABC's Lalee Ibssa reported, and has a place on his website for voters to report any election fraud. Plus, former President Donald Trump said last week the recall is " probably rigged." If Republicans challenge the election, it could lengthen the timeline to finalize the results, and function as a continuation of baseless claims about last year's election.

It's been really expensive. Newsom has spent more on the recall than he did on his 2018 campaign, The New York Times' Shane Goldmacher reported. The Democratic governor raised more than $70 million, much of it from mega donors like Netflix executive Reed Hastings, and interest groups like labor unions. Newsom used the cash to outspend Republican rivals on TV. But for all the cash that flowed into the recall, it is still less than last year's ballot campaign over independent contractors, which drew heavy spending from Uber and Lyft.

A whopping 7.8 million people already voted. Democrats who have returned mail-in ballots outnumber Republicans so far. According to Political Data Intelligence's special election tracker, 52 percent of ballots returned were sent by Democrats, 25 percent were sent by Republicans and 23 percent were mailed by independent voters. The election could also signal a shift in how California votes, writes The New York Times' Jill Cowan. More than a third of registered California voters cast ballots by Saturday, meaning the highest-turnout day of the election might have already happened.

Down the Ballot

GROUND GAME — Democrats are knocking on doors in California, New Jersey and Virginia — key states where they have gubernatorial elections this fall. It's a shift from the last election cycle, when concerns over the coronavirus landed field organizers on the sidelines, POLITICO's Zach Montellaro and David Siders reported. "We don't have the luxury to not knock on doors, because these elections are going to be decided on turnout," Virginia Democratic state Del. Elizabeth Guzman told David and Zach. The return to in-person campaigning comes as cases of the virus surge, although vaccination rates are on the rise.

NOTABLE FLOATABLES — Colorado Republican Heidi Ganahl is making an "announcement" on Tuesday, although it's not clear whether she will launch a campaign for governor or another office, Colorado Politics' Joey Bunch and Ernest Luning wrote. Ganahl, who was elected statewide to serve on the University of Colorado Board of Regents, has been floated as a potential challenger to Democratic Gov. Jared Polis, or even Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.).

SHOW ME THE MONEY — Fourteen Democratic chief state election officials signed on to a letter urging Congress to allocate $20 billion over the next decade for election funding, Zach writes in. "This funding would give local and state election offices the ability to replace outdated equipment, upgrade voter registration and election management systems, invest in physical, technological, and security infrastructure, and other essential needs," they write in the letter , circulated by the Center for Tech and Civic Life. Election funding was a big topic of discussion at the National Association of Secretaries of State meeting last month, and some were disappointed when election funding was absent from the outline of the massive reconciliation package.

ON THE AIRWAVES — The conservative Club for Growth aired a negative ad against former North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory, slamming him as a "disloyal, liberal, loser," The Charlotte Observer's Brian Murphy reported. McCrory is running in the GOP Senate primary against Rep. Ted Budd, who was endorsed by the Club for Growth and Trump. The $35,000 ad aired in the Charlotte TV market during the Panthers victory over the Jets in the NFL season opener on Sunday. The club has aired three television ads on Budd's behalf, and pledged to spend $5 million to support him.

PAC ATTACK — Former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell is part of a new super PAC targeting "the most dangerous Republicans in Congress," The Philadelphia Inquirer's Chris Brennan wrote. Rendell is chair of the advisory committee for Never Again, and is throwing punches at the 147 House lawmakers who objected to the election certification in January, who he referred to as the "Treason Caucus." Rendell is targeting Reps. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) and Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.), among others.

— House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy's leadership PAC is raising cash with Republicans who voted to impeach Trump, CNN's Melanie Zanona, Manu Raju and Alex Rogers reported. McCarthy's Take Back the House 2022 committee has raised funds with Reps. David Valadao of California, Jaime Herrera Beutler of Washington, John Katko of New York, and Fred Upton and Peter Meijer of Michigan. The move could put McCarthy at odds with Trump, who has endorsed primary challengers against some Republicans who voted for impeachment.

EVERYTHING'S BIGGER IN TEXAS — The group of quorum-breaking Texas Democrats fell apart last month, after spending weeks in Washington to block a Republican-backed elections bill, the Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek and Cassandra Pollock reported. Fractures in the group emerged after GOP Gov. Greg Abbott called a second special session to pass the bill, and the Democrats avoiding Austin were split on how to proceed. Some lawmakers returned to the capitol in Austin, ending the quorum break and causing feelings of betrayal inside the party.

 

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STAFFING UP — Harriet Hageman, the Wyoming Republican challenging Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), is staffing her congressional campaign with former Trump aides. The ex-president endorsed Hageman's campaign against one of his top political enemies, and the primary race will be a key test of his post-White House power, POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reported. Hageman's campaign is led by the consulting firm National Public Affairs, which is run by Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien and other 2020 campaign officials. Former Trump communications director Tim Murtaugh's firm, Line Drive Public Affairs, is also working for the campaign.

Hageman is also getting an outside boost from Wyoming Values PAC, which counts Donald Trump Jr. as an honorary chair and is led by Trump allies Andy Surabian and James Blair.

— Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.) hired Lou Grossman to serve as senior adviser on seniors outreach for his bid for governor. Grossman worked as seniors vote director for Biden's campaign in Florida.

THE PROCESS — A new report based on a canvass of Maricopa County voters claimed that there were issues with the 2020 election, but the report "failed to include any way to verify its dubious findings, and the only two specific examples it provided of alleged ballot problems were swiftly debunked," the Arizona Republic's Ray Stern wrote. Regardless, Maricopa County officials said they would try to investigate any claims of voter fraud, even after slamming the report.

— An attorney for Wisconsin state lawmakers is conducting interviews related to the 2020 election, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Patrick Marley reported. Republicans have retained Supreme Court Justice Michael Gableman to conduct an election review in the state that Biden won by less than a percentage point. Gableman is facing criticism from Democrats and Republicans for conducting the interviews in secret. It's not clear whether Gableman will issue subpoenas as part of the probe, or whether GOP Assembly Speaker Robin Vos will sign them.

THE GARDEN STATE — New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy is clashing with Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli over gun control, saying the GOP nominee should go be governor of "Florida, or Texas, or South Carolina" instead of running in New Jersey. Ciattarelli has proposed expanding concealed carry in some instances, like for real estate agents, POLITICO's Daniel Han reported, and pledged to repeal a Murphy-signed magazine capacity restriction.

THE MAP LINES — Virginia's redistricting commission is considering how incumbents should factor into the state's new political maps, the Richmond Times-Dispatch's Mel Leonor reported. Democratic state Sen. George Barker, a member of the commission, proposed adjusting the legislative map to keep him in the district he's represented for 14 years. The request set off a debate about gerrymandering and incumbent protections.

Presidential Big Board

FLORIDA MAN — DeSantis is balancing his 2022 reelection bid with possible presidential aspirations, POLITICO's Marc Caputo and Gary Fineout wrote. DeSantis would be an early favorite in the 2024 GOP primary if Trump does not run again, and has been to a number of events with fellow possible candidates. The popular governor traveled out of state at least a dozen times this year, including trips to Nebraska, Wisconsin, Kentucky and even the southern border in Texas. For his part, DeSantis has swatted away questions about 2024, and "has intentionally avoided setting foot in early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire."

CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY — "GOP lawmaker who refused to follow mask mandate while flying says she can't get to the Alaskan capital" — The Washington Post

 

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The students are not all right

Presented by StriveTogether: Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Education examines the latest news in education politics and policy.
Sep 13, 2021 View in browser
 
POLITICO's Weekly Education: Coronavirus Special Edition newsletter logo

By Jessica Calefati

Presented by StriveTogether

Editor's note: Weekly Education is a weekly version of POLITICO Pro's daily Education policy newsletter, Morning Education. POLITICO Pro is a policy intelligence platform that combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.

THE STUDENTS ARE NOT ALL RIGHT — College students' demand for counseling had been on the rise before the pandemic, but now requests to see a therapist are piling up so quickly that many schools are struggling to keep up.

By the numbers: A national survey of nearly 138,000 college students found 40 percent had experienced depression. One in three students said they'd struggled with anxiety, and one in seven reported having thoughts of suicide.

"Many of us are seeing increased demand (for therapy)," said Marcus Hotaling, president-elect of the Association for University and College Counseling Center Directors and director of the Eppler-Wolff Counseling Center at Union College in New York. "The pandemic plays a big role in that."

A student attaches a note to the Resilience Project board.

AP Photo/Rick Bowmer

Freshmen and sophomores are struggling the most, Hotaling told your host. Not only did some of them lose loved ones who died after contracting Covid-19, but they also missed out on many of the celebratory milestones that ease younger students' transition to college life, like prom, graduation or even an in-person senior year.

Students' growing interest in therapy doesn't necessarily mean more students are unwell, Hotaling said. It could mean that more students feel comfortable speaking up about their mental health and seeking treatment, just as high-profile athletes and celebrities have done lately. And while the stigma associated with mental illness has declined, Hotaling said he wants to see it eliminated.

"I wish we talked about mental health the way we talk about physical health," he said. "Some students still default to not talking about it or hiding it away, whereas we sign the cast when someone breaks an arm or a leg. We must do more to wipe out that shame."

IT'S MONDAY, SEPT. 13. WELCOME TO WEEKLY EDUCATION. I'm the newsletter's newest host, and I'm excited to get to know you. One way to do that is by sharing documents and data with me that illuminate problems in our schools you feel aren't getting enough attention. Have something I should see? You can reach me at jcalefati@politico.com

You can also contact my colleagues: Lauraine Genota (lgenota@politico.com), Daniel Payne (dpayne@politico.com), Juan Perez Jr. ( jperez@politico.com), Bianca Quilantan (bquilantan@politico.com) and Michael Stratford (mstratford@politico.com). And follow us on Twitter: @Morning_Edu and @POLITICOPro.

Depression, anxiety increased among college students during pandemic.

Annette Choi/POLITICO

A message from StriveTogether:

As we work to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic turmoil of the past 18 months, our nation's kids are counting on us to not only to build back better, but to do so in a transformative way. How? By strengthening civic infrastructure, which encompasses all the people and systems in a community working together to ensure more equitable outcomes for youth and families. See how transforming systems transforms lives.

 
Higher Education

SURGING DEMAND FOR COUNSELING — Your host attended last week's virtual Presidents Dinner, an annual event where the leaders of several small liberal arts colleges gather to answer reporters' questions, and I asked them what demand for counseling looks like on their campuses.

Bucknell University President John Bravman said his school has 10 full-time psychologists on staff serving 3,600 students, and that it can still be tough to get an appointment. The school also staffs a 24-7 hotline that students can call when they're in crisis and feel they can't be seen quickly enough.

Sewanee in Tennessee recently began offering a course on flourishing, where students receive formal training in how to cope with stress, President Reuben Brigety II said. The course is new, but he said the school may eventually make it a requirement for all students. And at Macalester College in Minnesota, students now have access to movement and storytelling classes designed to help them de-stress, President Suzanne Rivera said.

"I don't see attending to these mental health needs as something that we're going to be able to move past," Rivera said. "I think it's more like we need to figure out how to carry with us this new luggage, this new expectation, because the need for these kinds of supports is here to stay."

What about community college? One group of people whose mental-health needs largely aren't being met on campus are community college students, who tend to be older and poorer than their peers at four-year institutions. One in five community college presidents said their campuses don't provide any mental health services, according to a survey conducted last year by the American Council on Education.

Coronavirus

CAMPUS OUTBREAKS — College students have not been back on campus for very long, but coronavirus outbreaks linked to off-campus parties and crowded bars have already forced administrators at several schools to halt or restrict in-person instruction.

Liberty University in Virginia is grappling with one of the country's largest campus outbreaks. Since classes began on Aug. 23, 983 students and staff have tested positive for Covid-19. The school held classes online and suspended some large outdoor gatherings for two weeks to slow the spread of the disease. In-person learning resumes today.

Idaho's Boise State reported 231 virus cases over the last two weeks, the most the school has reported in a two-week period since the start of the pandemic. But that didn't stop the university from hosting its football home opener at Albertsons Stadium on Friday night before a crowd of more than 35,000. Classes are still taking place in person.

Key context: If the school's case counts continue climbing, the outbreak could further stress Idaho's already overwhelmed hospitals. Last week, state officials allowed some hospitals to start rationing care, something the state's health care system has never done before, and Republican Gov. Brad Little activated the National Guard to help hospitals manage the flood of patients.

In Delaware, the city of Newark is considering restrictions for private gatherings that it hopes will stop the spread of the virus on the University of Delaware's campus and stave off a switch to online classes that could harm local businesses.

The school reported 136 new cases on Thursday , its highest one-day total since the pandemic began. Before students returned to campus at the end of August, Newark had recorded just 113 infections all summer.

Limit gatherings? For most of last school year, the city limited parties to 20 people outdoors or 10 people indoors. But the restrictions were linked to a state of emergency that has since expired. The City Council is set to consider temporary restrictions at tonight's council meeting.

Elsewhere, schools are wasting no time switching to virtual instruction. Connecticut College and LaSalle both went remote after a few dozen students on each campus tested positive. "I know you will agree that this is not an ideal start to our semester, and this is a very difficult decision to make," La Salle's interim president, Tim O'Shaughnessy, said in a statement .

 

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Debt

PUMPING UP PELL TO CURB STUDENT DEBT New research from the Gender Equity Policy Institute exclusively obtained by POLITICO finds that doubling the value of the Pell Grant from $6,495 to $13,000 would cut future student loan debt in half.

By the numbers: The nonprofit research organization found that boosting the award would allow community college students who receive the maximum amount to graduate debt-free, whereas students seeking a bachelor's degree who get the maximum would see their debt reduced by 79 percent.

Earlier this year, a group of Democratic lawmakers introduced the Pell Grant Preservation and Expansion Act of 2021, which would increase the size of the largest Pell Grant to $13,000 over a five-year period and adjust it annually based on inflation after that.

That proposal is not, however, part of Democrats' $3.5 trillion domestic spending package. The latest version of the legislation increases the size of the biggest Pell Grant by $500.

The institute also found that more than 25 million adults could benefit from increasing the Pell Grant, including 11.7 million people who have earned some college credit but have not yet obtained a degree. Women of color would benefit substantially given the fact that they represent more than half of all women eligible for Pell.

In Congress

PROGRESSIVE PUSH FOR CHILD CARE — House Democrats on Friday advanced their sweeping education spending plan with expanded child care benefits after progressives who sought the amendment threatened to sink the bill without it, Michael reported.

Lawmakers on the House Education and Labor Committee voted 29-22 in favor of the plan, along party lines, as was expected. The legislation is part of a $3.5 trillion spending blueprint Democrats plan to use to carry out President Joe Biden's major domestic policy priorities.

The plan calls for a federal-state partnership to help parents cover the cost of child care. Committee Chair Bobby Scott (D-Va.) wanted to phase out benefits for families earning more than 200 percent of their state's median income, but facing pressure from progressives, he reluctantly agreed to make the benefits available to more families.

In the end, he endorsed an amendment by Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) that allows families earning more than 150 percent of their state's median income to have their child care costs capped at 7 percent of their income.

But the spending plan is far from final. Senate Democrats are still negotiating what level of education and child care spending they support, and moderates like Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), whose votes are needed to pass the legislation, have warned they want to see some parts scaled back.

Syllabus

Two parents are the first to face trial in college admissions scandal. The New York Times

Alabama limits teen COVID vaccination options after legislators complain. AL.com

In last ditch effort for remote learning, some NYC parents plan to boycott first day of school. Chalkbeat

Harvard, America's richest university, will divest from fossil fuels. The Washington Post

A message from StriveTogether:

We're all eager to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic turmoil of the past 18 months. And our nation's kids are counting on us to not only build back better, but to do so in a transformative way. How? By strengthening civic infrastructure, which encompasses all the people and systems in a community working together to ensure more equitable outcomes for youth and families.

Civic infrastructure is also the data that connects those people and systems—because if the organizations working to support our children aren't communicating with one another, leaders are unable to maximize opportunities for kids that set them up for success.

StriveTogether's cradle-to-career model offers a solution. By connecting organizations tackling common challenges and providing them with data on what works and what doesn't, we're strengthening civic infrastructure and empowering kids everywhere to build the futures they deserve. See how transforming systems transforms lives.

 
 

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Saturday, September 11, 2021

The Two Hero Brothers Killed by 9/11—19 Years Apart

The bond between FDNY Capt. Patrick Brown and Dr. Mike Brown includes a tree secretly planted in Central Park by "ninja gardeners."