Monday, February 28, 2022

6 House races to watch in Texas

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Score is your guide to the year-round campaign cycle.
Feb 28, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO's Weekly Score newsletter logo

By Stephanie Murray

Quick Fix

— The first primaries of the midterms are only a day away. We've got six House races to watch tomorrow.

— Republican Senate candidates converged on CPAC in Florida over the weekend, taking advantage of the conservative gathering to boost their campaigns.

— Former President Donald Trump still has a solid grip on the GOP, as he weighs whether to run for president again in 2024.

Good Monday morning. Email me at smurray@politico.com and follow me on Twitter at @stephanie_murr.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, zmontellaro@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @ZachMontellaro and @allymutnick.

Days until the Texas primary: 1

Days until the CA-22 special election primary: 536

Days until the Indiana and Ohio primaries: 65

Days until the general election: 253

Days until the 2024 election: 981

 

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TopLine

PRIMARY SOURCES — The first big election of the 2022 midterm cycle is almost here. There are 38 congressional districts on the ballot in Texas tomorrow. The primary races will give the first window into what voters are thinking this cycle.

Here's a roundup of six key House races, three on each side, that could tell us where the midterms are headed.

The Democratic primaries: Progressives are hoping to finish one primary fight they started in 2020, and claim a pair of open seats on Tuesday.

"We have to do two things. One is take out corporate Democrats, Democrats who are not 100 percent behind the Democratic platform," Our Revolution Executive Director Joseph Geevarghese told Score. "Two, we need to bolster the ranks of the Congressional Progressive Caucus." Our Revolution, an offshoot of Sen. Bernie Sanders' presidential campaign, has more than 50 volunteers involved in these three contests.

TX-28: The Democratic primary match-up between Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) and progressive challenger Jessica Cisneros will be the most-watched House race on the ballot tomorrow. Cisneros came close to beating Cuellar when she ran against him in 2020, losing by fewer than 3,000 votes. This time around, Cisneros and her allies have seized on a recent FBI raid of Cuellar's home in Laredo. While Cuellar has outraised his challenger, Justice Democrats, a progressive group, has spent more than $420,000 on TV, mail and digital ads via its independent expenditure arm.

TX-30: Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Texas) opened up a crowded Democratic primary when she opted to retire from the House. Johnson recruited and endorsed state Rep. Jasmine Crockett to replace her in Congress. Crockett has the backing of Our Revolution. Also running in the Democratic primary are former state Rep. Barbara Mallory Caraway, community organizer Arthur Dixon, 2020 Biden Texas state director Jane Hope Hamilton, former Dallas City Council member Vonciel Jones Hill, Cedar Hill School Board Member Keisha Lankford, Navy veteran Jessica Mason, former legislative staffer Abel Mulugheta and former Dallas County Constable Roy Williams Jr.

TX-35: National progressives have rallied around Democrat Greg Casar in TX-35 open-seat primary, after Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) swapped districts to run in the new TX-37. Also running are Democratic state Rep. Eddie Rodriguez and former San Antonio City Council member Rebecca Viagran. (Casar is a former member of the Austin City Council). The deep blue district encompasses parts of Austin and stretches to San Antonio. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) recently visited Texas to boost Casar and Cisneros.

The Republican primaries: Trump hasn't backed GOP primary challengers to Texas congressional incumbents the way he has in other states. The former president's energy has been more focused on statewide races for governor and state attorney general. But his influence, and Trump-adjacent issues like the 2020 election and the Jan. 6 attack, loom large in the Lone Star state.

"What has he really done to involve himself in these primaries?" His role is very limited and hard to even pin down," Travis County GOP chair Matt Mackowiak told Score, referencing Trump.

TX-03: Rep. Van Taylor (R-TX) is defending his House seat against a group of GOP challengers, including businessperson Suzanne Cassimatis Harp and former Collin County Judge Keith Self. Both candidates are running to Taylor's right and weaponizing his vote for a commission to investigate the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, the Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek wrote. Redistricting made Taylor more vulnerable to a primary challenge. Under the old lines, Trump won Taylor's district by 1 percentage point in 2020, but carried it by nearly 15 percentage points on the new map.

TX-11: The race to replace retiring Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas) has attracted some of the GOP's biggest names, including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.). Republicans have lined up behind two candidates in the crowded race: former Navy SEAL Morgan Luttrell and far-right activist Christian Collins, POLITICO's Ally Mutnick, Olivia Beavers and Elena Schneider wrote.

TX-02: Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) isn't in danger of losing reelection, but he's still an interesting candidate to watch on Tuesday night. The high-profile Crenshaw is a Trump ally, but he isn't exactly a loyalist, as POLITICO's Olivia Beavers noted last year, and he's cultivated his own army of youth activists. Crenshaw's acceptance of the 2020 election results put him at odds with his primary challengers, who echo Trump's false claims that the vote was rigged, the Texas Tribune's Andrew Zhang noted. One thing to remember: Crenshaw's seat became significantly more conservative during redistricting. Trump won the district by 23 percentage points under the new lines.

Down the Ballot

WEEKEND UPDATE — "How Orlando became the center of the universe for GOP Senate hopefuls," by Natalie Allison, POLITICO: "Mehmet Oz has less than 90 days left before Pennsylvania Republican voters cast their ballots in one of the most contentious Senate primaries in the nation. Every day and every event matters, especially to a candidate like him who only recently moved back to the state. Yet Oz could be found in Florida this weekend along with more than a dozen other Republican Senate hopefuls, aiming to make an impression at the Conservative Political Action Conference."

EVERYTHING'S BIGGER IN TEXAS — "Debate between Texas GOP attorney general candidates got heated, even though incumbent Ken Paxton wasn't there," by James Barragán, Texas Tribune: "A debate between Republican Texas attorney general candidates turned into an all-out brawl Thursday as Land Commissioner George P. Bush and former Texas Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman attacked each other, and U.S. Rep. Louie Gohmert targeted incumbent Ken Paxton, who declined to participate ."

THE KEYSTONE STATE — "No notes, same logo: Dr. Oz's campaign is like his TV show," by Marc Levy, The Associated Press: "Welcome to Oz's campaign for U.S. Senate, where the celebrity heart surgeon and former host of daytime TV's 'Dr. Oz Show' is making his way around Pennsylvania in town hall-style settings that seem very much like the TV studio where he once presided."

PARTY PROBLEMS — "Trump tries to recruit Rick Scott for majority leader," by Rachael Bade, POLITICO: "In a recent private meeting at Mar-a-Lago, Donald Trump made a personal pitch to Senate Republican campaign chief Rick Scott. 'You should run for Senate majority leader,' he told the National Republican Senatorial Committee, according to a person familiar with the exchange. It wasn't the first time, either: Trump has repeatedly told Scott he'd be great at the job and should challenge Mitch McConnell."

MIDTERM MESSAGING — "Post-ABC poll finds a deeply pessimistic nation, worried about the economy and Biden's leadership," by Dan Balz, Scott Clement and Emily Guskin, The Washington Post: "The poll finds Biden's presidential approval rating at a new low, with 37 percent saying they approve of the job he is doing and 55 percent saying they disapprove. Overall, 44 percent say they strongly disapprove."

"Asked whether they would prefer the next Congress to be in the hands of Republicans acting as a check against the president or in Democratic hands to support Biden's priorities, 50 percent of adults say they would rather have Republicans in charge on Capitol Hill while 40 percent prefer the Democrats."

— The Republican State Leadership Committee released a pair of videos ahead of the State of the Union targeting Democrats in Colorado and Minnesota over inflation.

ON THE AIRWAVES — Save Missouri Values, a super PAC backing Missouri state Attorney General Eric Schmitt for Senate, is up with a new ad featuring Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX). Cruz, who endorsed Schmitt, delivers a direct-to-camera pitch for the GOP Senate hopeful in the 30-second spot. The ad will begin airing statewide today, with an initial buy of $500,000.

— Arkansas Republican Sarah Huckabee Sanders is airing a new 60-second ad for her gubernatorial campaign. Sanders, the former White House press secretary, highlights her Arkansas roots in the ad. The commercial ends with a photo of Sanders walking alongside Trump, who has endorsed her in the race.

THE TAR HEEL STATE — "NC Republicans seek to differentiate themselves in first US Senate debate," by Avi Bajpai, News & Observer: "Over the course of a little more than an hour, former N.C. Gov. Pat McCrory, former U.S. Rep. Mark Walker and Marjorie K. Eastman, a combat veteran who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, took turns going after Democratic President Joe Biden, their opponent Rep. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) and each other, as they made their cases for why Republicans should vote for them in the upcoming primary."

THE MAP LINES — "Florida GOP splits amid DeSantis' push to upend redistricting," by Gary Fineout, POLITICO Florida Pro: "The main House panel handling redistricting on Friday advanced a new map that gives Republicans an additional two seats. The map also dismantles the North Florida congressional seat now held by Rep. Al Lawson, a Black Democrat from Tallahassee. But the 15-9 vote came with two Republicans voting no along with Democrats and after acrimonious debate."

GETTING IN — "Activist famed for Kavanaugh elevator confrontation to run for New York lieutenant governor's race," by Bill Mahoney, POLITICO New York: "Ana Maria Archila, a Queens activist who gained national attention in 2018 for confronting Sen. Jeff Flake in a Capitol elevator to protest Brett Kavanaugh's appointment to the Supreme Court, will launch a campaign for lieutenant governor on Saturday."

BALLOT BATTLE — "Unlike Texas, new voter ID rules in Georgia didn't cause surge in rejections," by Mark Niesse, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: "Since Texas introduced ID requirements for voting by mail, ballot rejections have spiked before next week's primary election. But preliminary data indicates a similar voter ID law in Georgia might not result in a dramatic increase in absentee ballot rejections here before the May 24 primary."

ENDORSEMENT ALERT — California Gov. Gavin Newsom endorsed Democrat Asif Mahmood against Rep. Young Kim (R-CA) in CA-40. 

DAY IN COURT — "Republicans seek to overturn Colorado's candidate donation limits in federal court," by Sandra Fish, The Colorado Sun: "Two Republican candidates have filed a federal lawsuit seeking to unwind Colorado's 20-year-old campaign donation limits. Greg Lopez, who is running for governor, and state Rep. Rod Pelton, of Cheyenne Wells, who is running for state Senate, along with former Colorado Republican Party Chair Steve House are plaintiffs in the lawsuit against the Secretary of State's Office. They are backed in the case by lawyers for two conservative nonprofits."

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 
Presidential Big Board

2024 WATCH — "Donald Trump wins CPAC straw poll," by Meridith McGraw and Natalie Allison, POLITICO: "At the annual gathering of conservatives in Orlando, former President Donald Trump delivered his strongest signal yet he plans to run for president again in 2024 — and if he does — a straw poll shows he has the support of a majority of Conservative Political Action Conference attendees. Trump won 59 percent support from attendees when asked their preference of potential 2024 presidential candidates, according to results released Sunday."

"When attendees were given a list of potential 2024 candidates that did not include Trump, DeSantis was the overwhelming favorite, with 61 percent support. Pompeo and Donald Trump Jr. tied for second with 6 percent support."

— "At CPAC, Trump delivers a reminder of his muscle," by Meridith McGraw, POLITICO: "For all the chatter that Trump's influence over the Republican Party is growing weaker, that others in the GOP tent are feeling more emboldened to break with him, there were few signs of it here. Inside the confines of CPAC — a conference that provides a pulse read for the conservative movement — there was little sense that the former president was anything other than the center of attention."

CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY — "A semi-nude video, corruption allegations and a fatal crash roil GOP primary for Texas Railroad Commission" — Texas Tribune

 

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Biden picks ‘daughter of former public school teachers’ for SCOTUS

Presented by The Collaborative for Student Success: Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Education examines the latest news in education politics and policy.
Feb 28, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO's Weekly Education newsletter logo

By Michael Stratford

Presented by The Collaborative for Student Success

BIDEN HIGHLIGHTS KBJ'S PUBLIC EDUCATION TIES: Ketanji Brown Jackson, President Joe Biden's pick for the Supreme Court, will head to the Senate this week as she begins the traditional charm offensive to kick off her nomination process.

Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson poses for a portrait.

Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo

On Friday, Biden introduced Jackson, the first-ever Black woman selected for the high court, as "the daughter of former public school teachers," calling her "a proven consensus builder, an accomplished lawyer and a distinguished jurist on one of the nation's most prestigious courts." He also noted her parents graduated from Historically Black Colleges and Universities.

Jackson serves on the board of several educational institutions. She is a member of Harvard University's Board of Overseers and serves on the board of trustees at Georgetown Day School. She previously served on the advisory school board of Montrose Christian School in Maryland.

Jackson hasn't weighed in publicly on many of the contentious education issues she'll likely deal with if confirmed, such as affirmative action, religious school choice and transgender student rights. As a federal judge since 2013, she handled a slew of routine special education cases but has had few major cases involving federal education policy.

In 2018, she blocked the Trump administration from ending funding for programs aimed at curbing teen pregnancies. She ruled that HHS' sudden effort to cut funding was "plainly arbitrary and capricious."

Question mark on Harvard affirmative action case: It's not clear whether Jackson's role at Harvard would lead to her recusal from deciding a forthcoming major affirmative action case. The Supreme Court has agreed to hear, likely this fall, a lawsuit by Students for Fair Admission, which challenges Harvard's use of race in admissions decisions.

Lawsuit over 'gainful' rule: As a district court judge, Jackson oversaw a legal challenge from Democratic state attorneys general to then-Education Secretary Betsy DeVos's delay in implementing the Obama-era gainful employment rule. The states had argued that the Trump administration was illegally failing to carry out the regulations, which target low-performing for-profit colleges and other career college programs. Jackson tossed out the states' legal challenge in 2020, ruling that they lacked the standing to bring the lawsuit in the first place.

Jackson also subsequently tangled with the states and the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals (where she now sits) over some of the complicated procedural machinations of the case. After DeVos scrapped the gainful regulation entirely, the issue of whether she had illegally delayed it became moot. The state attorneys general asked the appeals court to toss out Jackson's opinion, declaring they lacked standing to bring the lawsuit about the delay — which the appeals court agreed to do. In a 20-page response, Jackson sharply criticized the appeals court decision for rewarding what she said was "improper gamesmanship" in how the states pursued their case.

IT'S MONDAY, FEB. 28. WELCOME TO WEEKLY EDUCATION. Please send tips and feedback to your host at mstratford@politico.com or to my colleagues: Juan Perez Jr. at jperez@politico.com , Bianca Quilantan at bquilantan@politico.com and Jessica Calefati at jcalefati@politico.com. Follow us on Twitter: @Morning_Edu and @POLITICOPro.

A message from The Collaborative for Student Success:

See the brightest ideas in education recovery.

EduRecoveryHub.org displays state-by-state recovery information & provides insight into smart investments happening now. This one-stop resource spotlights strong practices in K-12 pandemic recovery that are supported by federal relief funds.

And to dive deeper into states' recovery strategies, EduRecoveryHub now features case studies on how Republican- and Democratic-led states are using funds to accelerate learning and meet students' social and emotional needs. Learn More: EduRecoveryHub.org

 
PANDEMIC

CDC'S BIG MOVE ON MASKS IN SCHOOLS: Schools in most parts of the U.S. no longer need to require mask-wearing under new guidelines released Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as part of a broader loosening of its masking recommendations amid a steady decline in Covid-19 cases.

Rochelle Walensky, who has been selected to serve as director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention speaks during an event at The Queen theater in Wilmington, Del., Tuesday, Dec. 8, 2020.

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky is seen during a Senate Appropriations Subcommittee hearing to examine the FY 2022 budget request for the CDC on May 19, 2021, in Washington, D.C. | Greg Nash-Pool/Getty Images | AP Photo/Susan Walsh

The new guidance is a major shift from the CDC's existing recommendation from last July that had called on everyone in K-12 schools to wear a mask, regardless of vaccination status or the Covid transmission rate in their community.

GOP governors have for months fought with the Biden administration over bans on school mask requirements. But the CDC's loosening of the mask guidelines follows several weeks of Democratic leaders across the country moving away from mask requirements.

New York became the latest state on Sunday to rescind its mask mandate for its schools. Democratic governor Kathy Hochul said the statewide mask requirement would be lifted Wednesday, citing a drastic decline in Covid cases and the CDC's latest guidance.

Growing trend: The number of school districts that no longer require masks has reached the highest level of this academic year, according to Burbio, a company that tracks the mask policies at the nation's 500 largest school districts. As of Sunday, Burbio reported more school districts without mask requirements than those with mandates.

An important detail flying under the radar: The CDC also said it would no longer enforce its nationwide mask mandate on school buses and vans, essentially leaving the decision up to local school systems. The agency said the change was driven by the new guidance for masking in schools generally. The mandate had applied to vehicles operated by private or public school systems, including child care programs.

The CDC's decision on school buses came as officials on Friday punted questions about whether they would be ending the broader mask mandates on public transportation and air travel, hinting at a decision in the coming weeks.

 

HAPPENING TODAY: A WOMEN RULE INTERVIEW: Join  Cecilia Rouse, chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, and Morning Money author Kate Davidson for a conversation exploring President Biden's economic agenda, the administration's plans to tackle financial losses women suffered during the pandemic and what it will take to elevate more women to leadership ranks in the U.S. economy. SUBSCRIBE HERE.

 
 

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Student Loans

NEW POLL: MOST LIKELY VOTERS BACK ANOTHER EXTENSION OF STUDENT LOAN RELIEF: More than 60 percent of likely voters would support another extension of the Education Department's freeze on federal student loan payments, according to a new tracking poll out this morning from the progressive groups Data for Progress and the Student Borrower Protection Center.

The Biden administration, under pressure from Democrats, last year again extended the pandemic-related pause on monthly student loan payments and interest through May. The new poll finds broad support for the current pause, including from Republicans (who approved of the policy by a 7-point margin) and voters without student loans (who favored it by 29 points).

But the survey also asked about the possibility of another extension through the end of the year. Large supermajorities of Black voters (71 percent) and Hispanic voters (82 percent) support extending relief again, according to the poll. Overall, 61 percent of likely voters surveyed said they would support a further extension. Republicans were the only group of respondents more likely to oppose again pushing back the restart of loan payments, with 51 percent opposed to an extension compared with 45 percent who supported it.

 

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Title IX

WHITE HOUSE MEETINGS ON BIDEN'S TITLE IX RULE: The White House has already begun meeting with outside groups to discuss the Education Department's proposal — which is not yet public — to overhaul Title IX regulations governing sexual misconduct in schools and federal protections for LGBT students. The meetings come as the Biden administration aims to release a proposed rule for public comment in April.

A group of Democratic attorneys general offices (California, Pennsylvania and New Jersey) made their pitch to Biden administration officials on Friday.

The White House has scheduled several more meetings with outside groups about the Title IX rule. The Alliance Defending Freedom, a conservative group, is slated to speak with officials on Tuesday. And there are scheduled meetings for next week with the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education and, separately, the National Women's Law Center.

In Congress

ON THE HILL THIS WEEK: As Congress returns this week, the House education committee's higher education panel plans to hold a hearing on the role that Hispanic-serving institutions and other minority-serving colleges play in economic mobility. The hearing is scheduled for Wednesday at 10:15 a.m.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 
Syllabus

— Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin stirred the GOP base on critical race theory — but not the General Assembly: The Washington Post.

— Judge strikes down elite Virginia high school's admissions rules: The New York Times.

— On college campuses, invasion of Ukraine sparks protests, other acts of solidarity: The Washington Post.

A message from The Collaborative for Student Success:

EduRecoveryHub features in-depth information provided by state education officials about their strategy and vision for utilizing recovery funds – and what actions they've taken.

Arizona, Kentucky, North Dakota, and Tennessee represent a cross-section of the country with diverse student group needs. Some of the ways they've used recovery funds include:

• Granting districts access to state reserve funds in exchange for greater investment in initiatives tied directly to student outcomes, including student instructional or extra-curricular experiences, mental health or social-emotional learning supports, or staffing policies to meet individual students' needs.
• Allocating more than $20 million toward school counselors and social workers at approximately 170 schools. 
• A $200 million investment in tutoring across the state, coinciding with a district incentive plan with benefits like cost sharing and planning grants.
• A statewide directive to invest 1/3 of relief funds on proven strategies now, while reserving an additional 1/3 for innovation and modernization.

Learn More: EduRecoveryHub.org  

 
 

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How U.S. Special Forces Can Fight Putin Without Starting WW3

From intelligence-gathering to training civilians in guerrilla tactics, here's what the U.S. and NATO might do to push back against the Russian invasion while avoiding escalation.