| | | | | |  | | By Zach Montellaro | Editor's Note: Weekly Score is a weekly version of POLITICO Pro's daily Campaigns policy newsletter, Morning Score. POLITICO Pro is a policy intelligence platform that combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro. | | | — POLITICO's latest election forecast has Joe Biden favored to lock down over 270 electoral votes — and opens a slim path to Biden locking up the election on election night. — Democrat Jaime Harrison, who is challenging Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), announced that he raised $57 million in the third quarter of the year, a new Senate record. — The election in a battleground Minnesota House district is back on (for now), after a federal judge ruled that the state cannot postpone an election following the death of a candidate. Good Monday morning. Email me at zmontellaro@politico.com and follow me on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro. Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com, amutnick@politico.com and @sabrod123. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @JamesArkin, @allymutnick and srodriguez@politico.com. Days until the final presidential debate: 10 Days until the 2020 election: 22 | | | | JOIN TUESDAY - A PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW WITH BILL GATES: The race for a Covid-19 vaccine has become a heated issue in the presidential race. How soon can a Covid-19 vaccine that works be ready and what else can the U.S. be doing on this front? On Tuesday, Oct. 13, at 4:15 p.m. ET / 1:15 p.m. PT, philanthropist and Microsoft founder Bill Gates will join Playbook authors Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman to discuss his philanthropic efforts to contain the pandemic, develop a vaccine and improve testing. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | THE ELECTORAL MAP — For the first time, POLITICO's Election Forecast has Biden favored to hit the all important 270 electoral votes. POLITICO Campaigns' Steve Shepard , the mastermind behind our ratings: "In addition to a double-digit national lead, Biden has built a stable advantage in the three Great Lakes states that put Donald Trump over the top in 2016: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Our latest presidential-race ratings now have Biden favored in enough states — including Wisconsin, which we've moved from 'toss-up' to 'lean Democratic'— to clinch the presidency. To win reelection, Trump would now have to sweep all five toss-up states, plus pull back a 'lean Democratic' state like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania." And heading downballot, the GOP's best chance at finding a silver lining comes with the Senate: "Despite Democrats' national momentum, both parties are in a knife fight for control of the chamber. North Carolina Democrat Cal Cunningham's recent sex scandal has jeopardized a crucial race that had been leaning his way," Steve writes. "Even after hundreds of millions of dollars in advertising, the landscape remains fairly static: Democrats are favored to pick up two seats, in Arizona and Colorado. Republicans are likely to knock off a Democratic incumbent in Alabama." Democrats need to net a total of three seats, leaving control of the upper chamber a jump ball with about three weeks to go. And in the House, Democrats are on track to do what was unthinkable at the beginning of the cycle. "There's a good chance they could grow the majority they won in 2018: If they split the 32 'toss-up' races evenly with the GOP, Democrats would have 236 seats, one more than they did at the start of this Congress," Shep writes. — The president has repeatedly called for a winner to be clear on election night, despite warnings from election officials across the country and in critical swing states that results may not be determinative for days, if not weeks. But the irony is, if the president does get his wish, it'd almost assuredly be bad news from him, I wrote with David Siders. Three Great Lakes states — Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — along with Nevada, are already warning that results might not be definitive on election night, making it hard for either candidate to cross the magical 270 mark. If both candidates had pledged to be patient and wait for results, that'd hardly be a problem. But Trump has not, leading some Democrats to push to deliver the knockout blow on Nov. 3. Our analysis found that Biden's relatively high floor of electoral college votes that are likely to be called that night — 226 votes — presents him several narrow paths to close it out in states that are expected to count a majority of their votes on election night. Most of the paths run through fast-counting Florida, where a decisive victory would go a long way to clinching the presidency for Biden. For Trump, his path to 270 by the end of the night on Nov. 3 is much steeper, if not impossible. With the three key battleground states (and Nevada) left presumably uncalled, his maximum on election night would be 260 electoral votes, which would require him to not only win every other electoral vote he carried in 2016, but to do so by a large enough margin that media outlets feel comfortable projecting a victor. His one path to 270? Flipping Minnesota, which his campaign has said is competitive but public polling has thus far had out of his grasp.
| | | THE PROCESS — There were plenty of important court rulings over the weekend. In Texas, a district court ruled against GOP Gov. Greg Abbott's "about-face" on absentee ballot drop-off sites, knocking down his late move to limit it to one dropoff site per county, POLITICO's Josh Gerstein reported. The ruling was immediately appealed to the 5th Circuit, which issued an administrative stay on Saturday while the court mulls if it would more permanently block the order. — Ohio counties are (still) not allowed to have ballot drop boxes at multiple locations. A federal appeals court stayed a lower court's order that allowed for multiple locations, The Columbus Dispatch's Randy Ludlow reported. Also in Ohio: Nearly 50,000 Franklin County voters received the wrong ballot mailed to them (roughly 20 percent of voters), the county board of elections announced on Friday, and said that it had already begun packing new ballots for those affected and expected them to be sent within 72 hours. This, predictably, led to Trump calling the election "rigged," against which both Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose and local officials pushed back, the Dispatch's Darrel Rowland reported, calling it a "serious mistake" that will be corrected. — A federal judge in Pennsylvania knocked down a lawsuit from Trump's campaign that sought to bar mail ballot drop boxes, WHYY's Ryan Briggs reported. OFFICIALLY OFF — No big surprise here, but the Commission on Presidential debates officially canceled the second debate, which was scheduled for Thursday, POLITICO's Quint Forgey reported. "It is now apparent there will be no debate on October 15, and the CPD will turn its attention to preparations for the final presidential debate scheduled for October 22," the commission said in a Friday statement. The format for the final debate will be identical to the first debate, with NBC News' Kristen Welker moderating; there won't be a town hall-style debate in which voters get to pose questions to the candidates this year. COALITION BUILDING — If there's one county to watch as a bellwether in Pennsylvania, it's Luzerne County, POLITICO's Holly Otterbein wrote. "Trump won working-class Luzerne by 26,000 votes in 2016 — nearly 60 percent of his margin of victory in a state that he narrowly carried. As part of his strategy to win Pennsylvania again, his campaign is betting on increased turnout in the small cities and rural reaches of the northeast. … For Biden, who was born in neighboring Lackawanna County, the region is also critical: His campaign wants to cut its losses in Luzerne County to a significant degree or perhaps, in the best-case scenario, flip it." — Democrats are relying on juicing Black turnout in a handful of Rust Belt states. But will it work? "So far, party leaders and Biden's African American surrogates in the three cities" — Detroit, Milwaukee, and Cleveland — "are projecting confidence that their voter outreach efforts will deliver — despite much of it being relegated to the virtual realm amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The work, they said, only has been energized by Biden's running mate selection," the Chicago Tribune's Bill Ruthart wrote. POLLS POLLS POLLS — Just a few polls over the weekend. — Iowa: A CBS News/YouGov poll in the state has Biden and Trump deadlocked at 49 percent each (1,035 likely voters; Oct. 6-9; +/- 3.5 percentage point MoE). —Michigan: A CBS/YouGov poll had Biden ahead in the state, 52 percent to 46 percent for Trump (1,190 likely voters; Oct. 6-9; +/- 3.3 percentage point MoE). — Nevada: A CBS/YouGov poll also has Biden ahead, 52 percent to 46 percent (1,036 likely voters; Oct. 6-9; +/- 4.1 percentage point MoE). — Texas: In a University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll, Trump led Biden, 50 percent to 45 percent (908 likely voters; Sept. 25-Oct. 4; +/- 3.25 percentage point MoE). — National: An ABC News/Washington Post poll had Biden up big, 54 percent to 42 percent for the president (725 likely voters; Oct. 6-9; +/- 4.0 percentage point MoE). ON THE AIRWAVES — Trump featured Dr. Anthony Fauci in one of his newest campaign ads, drawing a rebuke from the infectious disease doctor. "In my nearly five decades of public service, I have never publicly endorsed any political candidate. The comments attributed to me without my permission in the GOP campaign ad were taken out of context from a broad statement I made months ago about the efforts of federal public health officials," Fauci said in a statement to CNN's Kaitlan Collins. The ad also touts Trump recovering from the virus. — Biden's campaign rolled out an ad, both in Arizona and some national spots, featuring Cindy McCain, the late-Sen. John McCain's (R-Ariz.) widow, highlighting her husband and Biden's relationship while praising the former vice president. BACK ON THE TRAIL — After a brief address from the White House balcony on Saturday, Trump is set to hold a rally today in Sanford, Fla., making a return to the trail. THE YOUTHS — POLITICO is out with an extensive project looking at the youngest voters this election: Gen Z. "Gen Zers — politically liberal, diverse and incredibly active online — make up 10 percent of the electorate this year, but only 4 percent of likely voters," according to polling from Morning Consult, POLITICO's Rishika Dugyala wrote in the headline story of the package, which examined Gen Zers attitudes about the election. The whole package has stories on misinformation, what Trump has done to Republican Party in the eyes of young voters and more. | | | | COMING SOON - POLITICO'S GLOBAL PULSE NEWSLETTER: At a high-stakes moment when global health has become a household concern, keeping up with the politics and policy driving change is pivotal. Global Pulse is a new weekly newsletter that connects leaders, policymakers, and advocates to the people and politics driving the global health agenda. We'll track the conversation between Washington and multilateral organizations such as the World Health Organization, the United Nations, international NGOs and foundations, private funders and multinational corporations — zeroing in on the key players and key agendas. Join the conversation and subscribe today. | | | | |
| | | THE CASH DASH — Harrison, who is challenging Graham in South Carolina, raised a bonkers $57 million in the third quarter of the year, smashing the previous quarterly record for a Senate candidate, POLITICO Campaigns' James Arkin wrote. (Graham has not yet announced his haul, but FEC filings are due on Thursday.) More from James: "Harrison has massively outspent Graham in the race. The Democrat's campaign spent $52 million on TV and digital advertising so far this year compared to $19 million for Graham, according to data from Advertising Analytics. Between now and Election Day, Harrison has more than $16 million reserved, while Graham has $4.8 millions." — Harrison is just the latest (and perhaps most extreme) example of the "green tsunami" of online fundraising for Democrats, James and Elena Schneider wrote, that is threatening Republican's Senate majority. "The money is indicative [of] how much energy there is on their side, and the lack thereof on our side," Mike DuHaime, a Republican consultant, told them. "I think we're finding that Trump — the energy for Trump — is not always transferable, the same way it wasn't transferable for Democrats from Obama." Money isn't solely determinative of election results, after all. (Just ask Sen. Beto O'Rourke.) But it allows Democrats to draw competitive races across the map;. More: "Cornyn is the only Senate Republican out of the 13 most expensive Senate races to outspend a Democratic opponent on TV from July 1 to Oct. 10, according to a POLITICO review of Advertising Analytics data. In those same 13 races, Democratic candidates currently have more ads reserved between now and Election Day in all but two: Alaska and Texas, though those numbers are not final and candidates will continue to buy ads." — The organization Black Lives Matter is launching its own super PAC, POLITICO's Maya King reported, a "highly unusual move for a grassroots organizing group with no central leadership." BACK ON IN MINNESOTA — A federal judge ruled that the election in MN-02 between freshman Democratic Rep. Angie Craig and Republican Tyler Kistner is back on for November, stopping the state from enforcing a law that postpones contests if a major party candidate dies close to Election Day. (Adam Weeks, a candidate for the Legal Marijuana Now Party, died last month.) More from POLITICO Campaigns' Ally Mutnick (for Pros): "In her ruling, U.S. District Judge Wilhelmina Wright granted an injunction prohibiting the state from enforcing a law that cancels the election, citing the 'the overwhelming importance for Minnesota's Second Congressional District voters to be able to vote in the November general election and to have uninterrupted representation in the United States Congress.'" The legal battle is certainly far from over: Kistner indicated he'd appeal the ruling. PUT DOWN THE PHONE — North Carolina Democrat Cal Cunningham held his first press conference on Friday following the revelations about his affair, where he dodged questions about further details: "He repeated his apology Friday whenever a reporter asked him about [Arlene] Guzman Todd or any other affairs he may have had," WRAL's Laura Leslie and Matthew Burns wrote. The NRSC has also gone back on the air in the state, putting up a $3.5 million TV buy that's set to start airing on Oct. 19, James reported (for Pros), the first time the committee has been on air in the state since August. THE DEBATE STAGE — Plenty of Senate debates over the weekend: In Alaska, independent Al Gross and GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan squared off for their first debate, which centered around fisheries policy, the Anchorage Daily News' Aubrey Wieber wrote. The Colorado debate between GOP Sen. Cory Gardner and former Democratic Gov. John Hicklooper was the fiercest one yet, the Colorado Sun's Jesse Paul wrote. Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) and Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock had their final debate, where each accused the other of lying, the Billings Gazette Gwen Florio wrote. And in Texas, GOP Sen. John Cornyn and Democrat MJ Hegar met for their first (and maybe only) debate, the Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek reported. A debate in South Carolina was scrapped and replaced by two separate interviews after Harrison refused to appear unless Graham got a Covid test (which he declined to do), James wrote. — Missouri GOP Gov. Mike Parson and Democrat Nicole Galloway, the state auditor, met for their first debate on Friday, where they "predictably disagreed on many topics," the Springfield News-Leader's Austin Huguelet wrote. — A couple House debates: In WA-03 between GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler and Democrat Carolyn Long (OPB's Troy Brynelson) and in NE-01 between GOP Rep. Jeff Fortenberry and Democrat Kate Bolz (KETV). — Today, there's a debate scheduled between Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) and Jon Ossoff, plus a handful of House debates. (Check out Bloomberg Government's Greg Giroux's spreadsheet for a list.) THE MAP LINES — Kansas state Senate President Susan Wagle, a Republican, said the quiet part out loud with the looming redistricting process. "I guarantee you we can draw four Republican congressional maps. But we can't do it unless we have a two-thirds majority in the Senate and the House," Wagle said to a conservative group in September (the video circulated on Friday), per The Wichita Eagle's Jonathan Shorman and Jesse Newell. Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly called for a nonpartisan commission to draw the new lines, something she said she was planning on doing already. WAY DOWN BALLOT — Arizona isn't just slipping away from Republicans on a federal level, with Biden running ahead of Trump and Democrat Mark Kelly outpacing GOP Sen. Martha McSally; Democrats are making a push to flip the state legislature as well. "It's the possibility of flipping that state legislature that has many Republicans thinking about the long-term effects of Trump's GOP," POLITICO Campaigns' Sabrina Rodriguez wrote. "The November election will provide the first indication of whether Arizona is becoming Democratic-leaning territory, like Colorado and Virginia — or a perennial swing state, like Florida. The state's growing Latino population and shifting attitudes among college-educated white voters across the state have been a boon to Democrats." — And in Minnesota, third-party candidates running for a pair of pro-marijuanana legalization parties could upend the battle for the state Senate, which Republicans currently control. "Some of the candidates, however," POLITICO's Paul Demko wrote, "seem to be Republicans in weed clothing, and Democrats allege it's a deliberate GOP effort to confuse voters and take away votes from their candidates." ON THE AIRWAVES — Wouldn't you believe it, we have another ad roundup (just for Pros). The ad of the day comes (once again) from TX-03: An ad from Democrat Lulu Seikaly and the DCCC (negatively) tied GOP Rep. Van Taylor to Trump over health care and the Supreme Court. Trump carried the district by nearly 14 points in 2016! 2ND AMENDMENT TIME — A battle over guns popped up in Kansas over the weekend, where Republicans circulated a video of Democratic Senate candidate Barbara Bollier "praising strict Australian gun laws that she said 'took them all away,'" the AP's John Hanna reported. "Bollier's spokeswoman accused Republican [Rep.] Roger Marshall 's campaign of being 'duplicitous' in highlighting the video. Bollier's campaign released longer audio from the same event that included moments in which Bollier said she supports the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution protecting gun rights and recalled hunting with her father." FIRST IN SCORE — (INTERNAL) POLLS POSITION — A DCCC poll in NC-08 has a tight race in the district. The poll, from the party committee's internal data shop , has Democrat Patricia Timmons Goodson at 45 percent to 42 percent for GOP Rep. Richard Hudson (433 likely voters; Oct. 5-6; +/- 4.7 percentage point MoE). The poll has Biden and Trump close in the district, with the former vice president at 47 percent to the president's 43 percent. — The CBS/YouGov polls in Iowa and Michigan also tested the Senate races: In Iowa, Democrat Theresa Greenfield narrowly led Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, 47 percent to 43 percent. In Michigan, there's a tight race between Democratic Sen. Gary Peters and Republican John James: 47 percent to 44 percent. —The UT/TT poll found Cornyn leading Hegar, 50 percent to 42 percent. WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE — Texas state Sen. Royce West, who Hegar beat in the Democratic Senate primary runoff earlier in the year, said he wouldn't be voting for her, saying she has "had a problem all along with Black folks" and that she "never reached out" to him, in an interview with the Austin American-Statesman's Jonathan Tilove. CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Come on Illinois. Michigan isn't just where we vacation — it's also a swing state," Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), urging Twitter followers to donate to his colleague Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.). | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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