Monday, October 5, 2020

Trump’s hospitalization upends the campaign — The post-debate, pre-diagnosis polling — ‘Sexting’ scandal roils North Carolina Senate race

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By Zach Montellaro

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Quick Fix

— President Donald Trump's Covid-19 diagnosis, and subsequent hospitalization, has upended the remainder of the election, sidelining Trump from the campaign trail and creating significant uncertainty with under a month to go.

— A series of polls taken after last week's presidential debate, but before Trump's diagnosis, showed former Vice President Joe Biden leading a largely stable race.

— Democrat Cal Cunningham, who is running for the Senate in North Carolina, acknowledged that he sent intimate messages to a woman who wasn't his wife.

Good Monday morning. Email me at zmontellaro@politico.com and follow me on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com , jarkin@politico.com, amutnick@politico.com and srodriguez@politico.com Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @JamesArkin, @allymutnick and @sabrod123

Days until the vice-presidential debate: 2

Days until the second presidential debate: 10

Days until the 2020 election: 29

 

JOIN TUESDAY - A PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW WITH REP. JAMES CLYBURN & ERIC HOLDER : The way that Americans are voting in this year's presidential election is changing. What ballot access problems are Black and minority voters facing? Join Playbook authors Jake Sherman and Anna Palmer on Tuesday, Oct. 6, at 9 a.m. ET for an interview with House Majority Whip James Clyburn and former Attorney General Eric Holder on mail-in voting, the Black Lives Matter movement, and what Democratic priorities should be in the next Congress. REGISTER HERE.

 
 


TopLine

PANDEMIC POLITICS — To say we're in unprecedented territory less than a month before Election Day is certainly an understatement: The president of the United States has been diagnosed and hospitalized with a virus that has killed over 200,000 Americans, and one that he has downplayed more-or-less up to his own diagnosis.

But Trump's condition — which the American public still does not fully understand the severity of, thanks in no small part to a series of obfuscating and contradictory press conferences from the White House medical team — is far from the only one. Three Republican senators — Sens. Ron Johnson (Wis.), Thom Tillis (N.C.) and Mike Lee (Utah) — have also tested positive. So has RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, members of the president's debate preparation team (including former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who was also hospitalized) and campaign manager Bill Stepien.

President Donald Trump drives past supporters gathered outside Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Md., Sunday, Oct. 4, 2020. Trump was admitted to the hospital after contracting COVID-19.

AP Photo/Anthony Peltier

Trump is (obviously) off the trail, and when he'll return is anyone's guess. (In a bizarre moment on Sunday, the president sat in the back of a car that was driven past supporters outside Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Md., and waved.) In his absence, the Trump campaign promised to launch "Operation MAGA," which includes campaigning from Vice President Mike Pence (who tested negative on Sunday) and the president's children, with in-person events starting after the Oct. 7 vice presidential debate. POLITICO's Gabby Orr and Anita Kumar have more on the campaign deploying Pence, despite some pressure for him to stay safe and ensure continuity of government.

And while Stepien is working remotely, deputy campaign manager Justin Clark will oversee campaign headquarters in Arlington, Va., "though advisers stressed that [Stepien] would maintain control of the campaign," POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reported. And a good spot from my colleague Alex Thompson: The Trump campaign was running an ad on YouTube's homepage — some of the most expensive real estate on the internet — to push a video of Trump speaking at Walter Reed.

And in a role reversal, Biden is the one traveling across the country, POLITICO's Marc Caputo reported. (He held a Friday Michigan event that was delayed until he tested negative, and is due in Florida for an NBC town hall tonight.) The campaign also said it pulled negative TV ads about the president for the time being, but, a Biden adviser acknowledged a second motive to Marc: "To pivot to the closing argument stage of the campaign, in which the Democrat tries to rally voters with an uplifting case for change. Besides, that adviser said, Biden doesn't need to say much about Trump's struggles to contain coronavirus because, now that the president is hospitalized for it, it's obvious."

The Wednesday debate between Pence and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) is still on, with the distance between the two (seated) candidates increased from seven feet to 12 feet after a "health and safety" request from the Biden campaign, POLITICO's Natasha Korecki and Isenstadt reported.

And so far, it is still far too early to know how the American public is reacting to the president's health. (Spare a thought for the pollsters who went into the field immediately after the first debate.) In times of crisis, Americans have often rallied around the president. But, to steal a metaphor from Campaigns chief Steve Shepard, will Americans react as if the president was struck by lightning, or as if he was standing on the roof of the White House with his golf club raised to the sky, screaming, "It's only drizzling!"

— Biden again tested negative on Sunday, but medical experts said it could be days before he is in the clear following potential exposure during his debate with the president, POLITICO's Natasha Korecki and David Lim reported.


Presidential Big Board

POLLS POLLS POLLS — We have ourselves a handful of post-debate, pre-presidential diagnosis polls both nationally and in critical states, all of which show a fairly stable race that is tilting in Biden's direction.

— National: An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll had Biden leading Trump. 53 percent to 39 percent (800 registered voters; Sept. 30-Oct. 1; +/- 3.46 percentage point MoE). A methodological note from NBC News' Mark Murray: "Our bipartisan team of pollsters has chosen to use only reg voters for the rest of the election — due to the sky-high interest, record early voting and all the mail-in ballots."

— Arizona: In a USA Today/Suffolk University poll, there's a tight race. Biden is at 50 percent, to 46 percent for Trump (500 likely voters; Sept. 26-30; +/- 4.4 percentage point MoE).

— Florida: In a poll from The New York Times/Siena College, Biden led Trump, 47 percent to 42 percent (710 likely voters; Sept. 30-Oct. 1; +/- 4.2 percentage point MoE).

— Ohio: In a CBS/YouGov poll, both Trump and Biden are deadlocked at 47 percent each (1,114 likely voters; Sept. 30-Oct. 2; +/- 3.7 percentage point MoE).

— Pennsylvania: In another CBS/YouGov poll, Biden led Trump, 51 percent to 44 percent (1,187 likely voters; Sept. 30-Oct. 2; +/- 3.2 percentage point MoE). A poll from The New York Times/Siena College found Biden leading, 49 percent to 42 percent (706 likely voters; Sept. 30-Oct. 2; +/- 4.1 percentage point MoE).

THE PROCESS — A panel of judges on the 11th Circuit restored the Election Day deadline for Georgia voters to return their absentee ballots, staying a lower court judge's decision that allowed ballots to be counted if they were postmarked by Nov. 3, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Mark Niesse reported. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensburger, a Republican, had appealed the initial ruling.

— A federal judge issued a TRO blocking a proposed settlement in state court between the North Carolina Board of Elections and voting rights groups that would have, among other things, made the state a "postmarked-by Election Day" state, The News & Observer's Danielle Battaglia reported.

— An Ohio appeals court ruled that a lower court's order that mandated that Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose allow more than one dropbox per county was out of order — but also said LaRose could, if he chooses, allow for more than one dropbox, the AP's Julie Carr Smyth reported. (LaRose has maintained that he doesn't think state law allows for more than one dropbox per county, but has asked the GOP-controlled state legislature — to no avail — to allow for it.)

 

HAPPENING WEDNESDAY - A WOMEN RULE ROUNDTABLE ON THE VP DEBATE : In the wake of a contentious and highly criticized first debate, the attention turns to Vice President Mike Pence and Senator Kamala Harris who are set to square off on Oct. 7. Join Women Rule editorial director Anna Palmer for a virtual roundtable discussion with Maya Harris, Christine Pelosi and Jennifer Palmieri on how Sen. Kamala Harris has prepared for the big night and whether the VP debate will revert to political norms. REGISTER HERE.

 
 


Down the Ballot

PUT DOWN THE PHONE — Cunningham, the North Carolina Democratic Senate nominee, admitted to sending intimate text messages to a woman who isn't his wife. The texts, which were first obtained by the conservative site National File, show Cunningham talking to a woman about meeting up and kissing — "Sounds so hot and so fun!" one text from the candidate read — and led to an apology from him, although he will not drop out. "I have hurt my family, disappointed my friends, and am deeply sorry. The first step in repairing those relationships is taking complete responsibility, which I do," Cunningham said in a statement to The News & Observer's Brian Murphy, Tara Copp and Ames Alexander. (The texts were a front page story for both the N&O and the Charlotte Observer.)

The revelations marked a tumultuous 24 hours in the Tar Heel State, and landed just a few hours after Tillis' positive coronavirus diagnosis became public, POLITICO's James Arkin and Burgess Everett reported. The DSCC indicated it was sticking with Cunningham, while the NRSC suggested there was more to the story. Murphy and Jim Morrill of The Charlotte Observer have the follow-up story, trying to answer this question: "Given the pace and seriousness of the news — more than 209,000 people have died of coronavirus and Trump remains hospitalized with the disease — how will voters judge Cunningham's scandal, especially in light of other sex-related issues involving prominent politicians in recent years?"

END OF THE LINE — Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) had decided to retire in 2022, foregoing a reelection bid (which was considered unlikely) and a campaign for governor (which had been more expected), James, John Bresnahan and Holly Otterbein reported. (The news was first reported by The Philadelphia Inquirer's Jonathan Tamari and William Bender ). His announcement will set off a mad scramble in the Keystone State for both the open Senate seat (Toomey is expected to finish out his term) and the governor's mansion, where current Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf is term-limited. James, Bres and Holly's story jumps into a long list of potential candidates, but it'd be easier to say who has ruled out a run: basically nobody.

COUNTING HEADS — The Census Bureau told employees on Friday that enumeration will continue through the end of the month, after a battle with a federal judge over a previous ruling, I wrote. District Judge Lucy Koh ordered that the count continue and that it inform employees as much, after the Bureau put out a statement earlier last week saying today was the "target date" to cut off self-response and field operations. But the legal battle continues: There's arguments in a circuit court taking place today.

THE CASH DASH — Ten days until quarterly FEC reports are due. Here's some more early announcements; If a cash on hand amount isn't mentioned, the candidate didn't include it.

— FL-15: Democrat Alan Cohn raised over $1 million.

— FL-16: Democrat Margaret Good raised $1.1 million

— MI-03: Democrat Hillary Scholten raised $1.5 million.

— MT-AL: Democrat Kathleen Williams raised more than $2.3 million.

— OK-05: Freshman Democratic Rep. Kendra Horn raised $1.4 million.

— SC-01: Republican Nancy Mace raised $2.3 million.

DEEP IN THE HEART — Top aides of Texas state Attorney General Ken Paxton have asked federal law enforcement to investigate their boss over "allegations of improper influence, abuse of office, bribery and other potential crimes," KVUE's Tony Plohetski and the Austin American-Statesman's Chuck Lindell reported. Further details were not available, and a statement from Paxton on Saturday said the complaint was "was done to impede an ongoing investigation into criminal wrongdoing by public officials including employees of this office," and did not elaborate further. (And, not for nothing: Paxton is leading the fight to challenge the Affordable Care Act at the Supreme Court.)

THE DEBATE STAGE — We had a jam-packed weekend of Senate debates across the map. In South Carolina, GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham and Jaime Harrison met for their first fiery debate (where Harrison brought his own plexiglass shield). More from James : "Harrison accused Graham of flip flopping on his word and breaking the trust of his voters. Graham, the three-term GOP incumbent, warned South Carolinians they wouldn't recognize their country if Democrats took control in Washington." (Plus local coverage from The Post and Courier's Jamie Lovegrove.)

Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) and former Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper met Friday for their first debate. The Pueblo Chieftain's Ryan Severance wrote, "Gardner characterized Hickenlooper as someone who thinks it's all about him and his own self-interests and not the people of Colorado, while Hickenlooper said change is needed in Washington and that nothing is going to change if new people aren't sent there." And in Iowa, GOP Sen. Joni Ernst and Democrat Theresa Greenfield had a debate Saturday as the state approaches early voting, the Des Moines Register's Brianne Pfannenstiel reported, writing "though much of Saturday's debate was cordial, it grew more tense as it progressed, with each candidate accusing the other of being dishonest on multiple occasions." Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) and his Republican challenger, Daniel Gade, met for a debate on Saturday centered on racial inequity, The Washington Post's Meagan Flynn wrote.

There's one Senate debate on the docket tonight: Rep. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) and Republican Mark Ronchetti meet tonight at 8 p.m. Here's the full Senate debate schedule from James, for Pros.

— But that's not all! In Montana, there was a gubernatorial debate Saturday between Democratic Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney and freshman GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte , their first of two debates. POLITICO Campaigns' Sabrina Rodríguez writes in: "Gianforte and Cooney were quick to disagree on how they'd handle the pandemic, as Cooney said he would rely on 'science and best practices' — a clear jab at Gianforte, who has been criticized in the past for promoting herd immunity and holding controversial views on climate change and evolution. Gianforte said he'd 'rely more on personal responsibility' to deal with the coronavirus. Montana has had a statewide mask mandate in place since July, which has received backlash while cases have continued to increase.

"The biggest takeaway for voters, both candidates agreed, is their differing credentials for the job. Cooney has been in public office for more than 40 years; Gianforte, one of the richest lawmakers on Capitol Hill, is a tech entrepreneur. Both have past unsuccessful runs for the governor's office, with Cooney having run in 2000 and Gianforte doing the same in 2016. " The second debate will be at 9 p.m. on Tuesday; Here's the local coverage from the Great Falls Tribune's Phil Drake.

THE SENATE MAP — Duty and Country, which is affiliated with Senate Majority PAC, is dumping $7.5 million into the open Kansas Senate race between GOP Rep. Roger Marshall and Democrat Barbara Bollier, James reported, a major sign the race in the red-leaning state is competitive.

THE HIGH COURT — Despite the positive tests among senators, the Senate Judiciary Committee does not intend to delay Amy Coney Barrett's confirmation proceedings. And those upcoming hearings could give battleground senators a lifelong among conservatives, POLITICO's Marianne LeVine writes : "Republicans view the Supreme Court confirmation fight as an opportunity to energize conservative voters … 'If you ask me what's the most important thing I could be seen as doing in South Carolina? Confirming a Supreme Court justice, a conservative justice,' Graham said. 'It doesn't hurt me at all to be doing my day job for something this important.'"

THE GOVERNATORS — A central issue in the Missouri gubernatorial race between GOP Gov. Mike Parson and Democrat Nicole Galloway will be the pandemic, especially after Parson and his wife contracted (and subsequently recovered from) the disease, Sabrina wrote.

ON THE AIRWAVES — Here's the Friday ad roundup, just for our Pro subscribers. The ad of the day is not due to its contents (folks, you'll be shocked to learn that Democrats are swinging away over health care), but where it lands. In OR-04, House Majority PAC has its first ad attacking Republican Alek Skarlatos, who is challenging Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio in OR-04. The race has largely flown under the radar, but super PAC spending in a district that Hillary Clinton carried by the skin of her teeth makes it worth watching.

And, because I make the rules, we're getting two ads of the day today. The second is from Democrat Mark Kelly, who is challenging Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) in a special election. The Kelly ad stars McSally's batterymate in the Senate, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema (who beat McSally in 2018). Sinema tosses the quickly-dying tradition of senators not campaigning against their colleagues: "Her false attacks against me were desperate and over the top. Now she's doing the same to Mark Kelly," Sinema says, before attacking McSally on health care.

POLL POSITION — Some more polls! The USA Today/Suffolk poll in Arizona also tested the Senate race, and found Kelly leading McSally, 49 percent to 40 percent.

— Plus the rare high-quality, public House poll: A poll from Syracuse.com/Siena College found Democrat Dana Balter and GOP Rep. John Katko in a tight race in NY-24, 45 percent to 42 percent (414 likely voters; Sept. 27-29; +/- 5.1 percentage point MoE). Biden led comfortably in the district, 53 percent to 34 percent.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "We have the time, and we don't have as much life left to live." — Bob Mulliken, an 80-year-old Biden supporter who has been campaigning for Democrats, to The Washington Post.

 

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