| | | | | |  | | By James Arkin and Zach Montellaro | Presented by the Partnership for America's Health Care Future | Editor's Note: Weekly Score is a weekly version of POLITICO Pro's daily Campaigns policy newsletter, Morning Score. POLITICO Pro is a policy intelligence platform that combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro. | | | — Control of the Senate could be up in the air for quite some time, thanks to a combination of potential runoffs and states expected to take time to tally results. — Early voting totals in Texas are astounding, with turnout already hitting 80 percent of what it was for the entirety of the 2016 election. — Amy Coney Barrett is set to be confirmed by the Senate later today on a largely party-line vote, eight days before the election. Good Monday morning. James (jarkin@politico.com; @JamesArkin) and I put our heads together for today's Topline. Thanks, buddy! Email me at zmontellaro@politico.com and follow me on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro. Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, amutnick@politico.com and srodriguez@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @allymutnick and @sabrod123. Days until the 2020 election: 8 | | A message from the Partnership for America's Health Care Future: When it comes to health care, lowering costs is voters' highest priority – but the public option could force the average worker to pay $2,500 more a year in payroll taxes in addition to the cost of their current coverage. Get the facts. | | | | | | GET READY AND WAIT — The Senate majority is firmly up for grabs, but it's entirely possible election night will come and go without clarity on which party is in control. At least a handful of the most closely contested states have specific rules, procedures or history of slow counting that could delay decisive race calls for days — or until next year. In Maine, ranked-choice voting means voters will rank their picks, including two third-party challengers. If neither GOP Sen. Susan Collins or Democrat Sara Gideon win 50 percent of the vote, which is possible, those third-party voters will be reallocated to their second or third choices until someone has a majority. Under ranked choice voting in 2018, now-Democratic Rep. Jared Golden wasn't declared the victor over then-GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin until more than a week after Election Day. In Arizona, heavy use of mail ballots could delay a call past Nov. 3. It took several days in 2018 before it was clear that now-Sen. Kyrsten Sinema had defeated Republican Martha McSally (who was later appointed to the Senate and is on the ballot again this year). McSally conceded six days after the election. One thing that could move the process along, at least somewhat: This year, local election officials in the state have 14 days to process ballots, instead of 7 days like in 2018. And in Montana, which also has a competitive race this year, the call wasn't made until midday Wednesday in 2018. If it comes down to Alaska, expect to wait: Tens-of-thousands absentee ballots won't be counted until Nov. 10, so results could shift, per KTUU's Sean Maguire. (We've heard second-hand stories from more than one election official about their Alaska colleagues having to deliver some ballots via dogsled!) Two other states to keep an eye on: North Carolina and Iowa. In North Carolina, election officials expect that up to 80 percent of the vote will be tallied on election night, so there's a chance for a definitive result on Nov. 3. But the race between GOP Sen. Thom Tillis and Democrat Cal Cunningham has been extremely tight in public polling — and with a court battle still ongoing over when ballots are even due, it is possible that a final projection could take some time here as well. Iowa, meanwhile, is moving in the other direction. The Hawkeye State recently expanded the amount of processing times that local election officials get to deal with the wave of ballots, which greatly increases the chances of getting a projection in the state on Nov. 3. "We don't anticipate significant delays in reporting statewide results," Republican Secretary of State Paul Pate recently said in a recent statement to The Daily Iowan's Caleb McCullough. Don't make plans for the rest of 2020, though. Depending on how things shake out elsewhere across the map, Georgia could determine control of the Senate in January. The special election there is all but certain to go to a Jan. 5 runoff, with no candidate holding a realistic pathway to a majority of the vote. And the race between GOP Sen. David Perdue and Democrat Jon Ossoff could go to a runoff as well: There's a Libertarian on the ballot, and neither candidate consistently polls above 50 percent. If Democrats net gain two seats in November, the Senate could be deadlocked at 49-49 heading into Georgia runoffs. — And don't miss James' big story laying out the Senate landscape as we head into the final full week of the campaign: "Republicans are scrambling resources into red and purple states alike — from Kansas and South Carolina to Iowa and North Carolina — cutting down Democrats' massive financial edge and hoping for a late-breaking turn in their favor, similar to four years ago. But their defensive posture underscores just how broad the playing field is, with nearly a dozen Republican senators in various levels of danger, and only two Democratic seats at risk." James notes that Democrats aren't declaring the chamber flipped, with many of those states being red states. "But their paths back to the majority have expanded significantly as the election nears its close, leaving party strategists more optimistic about their chances than two years ago — when retaking the Senate seemed next to impossible, even in a wave election." | | | |   | | | | | | VOTING EARLY — Americans continue to vote early at an incredible pace. An astounding 59.4 million people have already cast their ballot, according to the U.S. Elections Project , with still over a week to go before Election Day. But no state's early voting is more shocking than Texas, where nearly 7.2 million have already voted, which is over 80 percent of the 2016 turnout. What makes Texas' total even more remarkable is the fact that it is almost entirely driven by in-person early voting, with mail ballots making up about 12 percent of the total early vote thus far. Texas was one of just five states to not, at a minimum, allow every voter to choose to cast a mail ballot if they'd like to (Texas still required a valid excuse to vote by mail). Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, also made it onerous for voters who have mail ballots to return them via a drop box. Abbott limited the number of drop boxes to just one per county, which disproportionately affected large, Democratic-leaning counties like Harris County. A state appeals court upheld a lower court order allowing more than one drop box, but Abbott and Secretary of State Ruth Hughs appealed the ruling to the state Supreme Court, which temporarily blocked the order from taking effect on Saturday, per The Texas Tribune's Jolie McCullough. THE RUNNING MATE— Vice President Mike Pence is taking on an optimistic approach in the close days of the race. "He's convinced the come-from-behind dream, which is animating the Trump campaign's truest believers in the last eight days of the 2020 race, remains feasible — even as a growing cluster of Covid-19 infections among the vice president's staff draws renewed attention to his administration's inability to control the pandemic," POLITICO's Gabby Orr wrote . "Despite the blow to Pence's credibility, as his own team is hobbled by the virus that he was supposed to contain nationwide, the vice president's aides and allies said he remains hopeful he can still be useful in the final sprint to Election Day as he defies concerns about exposure risks and continues to campaign." GOING LOCAL — Team Trump has been trying to make up its ad deficit by flooding local TV and radio stations with interviews and rallies. "But the gambit has been challenged by a trail of negative headlines that have followed the president: articles about rallies that eschew pandemic guidelines, news of people sickened by coronavirus afterward, spats with local officials that dominate regional coverage before and after a visit," POLITICO's Meridith McGraw wrote. PEACH STATE — Georgia voters are already voting early in historic numbers. But Black voters in the state are also voting with the state's history of voter suppression in mind. POLITICO's Maya King , reporting from Atlanta: " Since Oct. 12, the first day of early voting a staggering 2.7 million voters — a nearly 110 percent increase from 2016 — have cast a ballot. Beyond that, they are organizing caravans, volunteering as election workers and serving as poll watchers. This level of enthusiasm is also a reflection of apprehension about the election: Voters here are turning out in waves not to overwhelm the system but to hold it accountable." THE BIG ONE — The much ballyhooed "60 Minutes" interviews with both President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence, and former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), aired on Sunday night. Here's Trump and Pence's interviews with Lesley Stahl and Biden and Harris' interviews with Norah O'Donnell. ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Another for the "to the extent you think newspaper editorial board endorsements matter" file: The editorial board of the New Hampshire Union Leader, which has almost always backed Republicans, picked Biden over Trump, while urging people to consider "splitting the ballot and electing a healthy dose of GOP senators and representatives." | | A message from the Partnership for America's Health Care Future: During this critical time, access to affordable, high-quality health care is more important than ever, but creating a public option could result in higher taxes or premiums for American families. In fact, a recent study finds the public option would become the third most expensive government program behind Medicare and Social Security, both of which are already at risk for those who rely on them.
Let's build on and improve what's working where private coverage, Medicare and Medicaid work together, not start over with a one-size-fits-all government health insurance system like the public option. Learn more. | | | | | | THE HIGH COURT — Judge Barrett is set to become Justice Barrett later today, after the Senate cleared a key procedural hurdle on Sunday, POLITICO's Marianne LeVine and Andrew Desiderio reported. An interesting weekend twist: Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) announced she'd vote to confirm Barrett after voting against an earlier procedural step. Barrett's speedy confirmation process, culminating a week before the election, means Barrett could weigh in on emergency cases right before the big day. (A speedy swearing-in process following confirmation would not be unusual.) One place that could be critical? Pennsylvania. With apologies for a repeat for our Sunday Score readers: Pennsylvania Republicans are again asking the Supreme Court to overturn the extended mail ballot deadline in the state. The high court deadlocked last week, with Chief Justice John Roberts joining the court's liberals, to deny a stay of the state Supreme Court's order that extended the deadline from close of polls to ballots being postmarked by Election Day. The Philadelphia Inquirer's Jonathan Lai : "In a filing Friday night with the nation's high court, the state Republican Party made essentially the same argument it had unsuccessfully presented earlier to the same court … Friday night's filing differs in that it is asking the court to take up the case itself and decide whether the state court ruled properly."
| | | | HAPPENING TUESDAY - A GEN Z RISING DISCUSSION: Did you know Gen Z now makes up 1/10th of the electorate? Join a virtual conversation with Mike Brodo, executive director of Gen Z GOP, and Chelsea Miller, co-founder of Freedom March NYC, and other Gen Z voters to find out how young voters are interacting with the political parties, technology and electoral process. Moderated by Laura Barrón-López and Rishika Dugyala, this virtual conversation explores the mindset of Gen Z voters, their policy priorities, and their impact on Election Day. REGISTER HERE. | | | | |
NOT SO SUBTLE — An ad landed on Friday from a group called "True Kentucky Patriots," promoting Brad Barron, the Libertarian Party Senate nominee in the state, as "Kentucky's true conservative." "Sorry, Mitch. 36 years is too long," the ad's narrator says . If your chicanery radar is going off, you'd be spot on. Normally there needs to be some digging done to determine who is behind these groups — like a shared vendor or bank, or example — but it is abundantly clear that Democrats are behind this effort: the anti-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell group Ditch Mitch is listed as an affiliated committee in TKP's statement of organization filed with the FEC . But that doesn't mean there isn't serious dough behind this last-minute push. Advertising Analytics tracks over $1 million in buys that began on Friday and run through Election Day, while other FEC filings indicate the group is also making phone calls to boost Barron.
— FIRST IN SCORE — NRDC Action Votes is launching a $200,000 TV and digital campaign backing Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio in OR-04, who is facing a tough challenge from Republican Alek Skarlatos. The ad says DeFazio "immediately lobbied the White House for emergency funds" for a recent wildfire that devastated parts of the district, and "has long fought climate change." (If you missed my colleagues Sarah Ferris and Sam Mintz' story on the race from earlier in the month, give it a read!) NEVER TOO EARLY — Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) has already drawn a Democratic challenger, even before 2020 is buttoned up. "Democrat Tom Nelson, Outagamie county executive and a former state Assembly majority leader, has officially launched his bid for the 2022 Senate race," POLITICO's Natasha Korecki reported. Other names in the mix: Milwaukee Bucks senior vice president Alex Lasry, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, and state Attorney General Josh Kaul. THE HOUSE MAP — Democrats' massive fundraising wave is poised to push them to keep the House — and potentially expand their reach in the lower chamber. POLITICO's Ally Mutnick and Allan James Vestal have a rundown of all the numbers from last week's pre-general reports, exclusive for Pro subscribers (and Pros, you got this in your inbox last week!), but one nugget for everybody: "Republican nominees have been outspent this cycle by their Democratic opponents in 48 of the top 64 most competitive House races — and two dozen of them were outspent by a two-to-one margin or greater." (And also for Pros, here is James' Senate fundraising chart if you missed it last week.) And Democrats are riding that massive cash advantage to swamping Republicans on the airwaves. "In the most competitive 94 districts, Democrats have booked over $177 million in ads since Labor Day, while their GOP opponents have spent $93 million," according to a analysis of advertising data by Ally. Republican outside groups have scrambled to make up the difference, but the party is still bracing for a string of defeats next month." "At this point, it's pretty clear there's going to be losses. The question is just how many, and if Republicans can keep it in the mid-to-high single digits," Ken Spain, a GOP strategist and former communications director for House Republicans' campaign arm, told Ally. "The money and the momentum is so significantly one-sided." — The NRCC donated $5,000 to Marjorie Taylor Greene, the Republican House candidate in a safe Georgia seat that supports the QAnon conspiracy theory, The Daily Beast's Sam Stein reported.
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POLL POSITION — Some more polls!
— FIRST IN SCORE — AR-02: An internal poll from Democrat Joyce Elliott shows her deadlocked with GOP Rep. French Hill . The poll from ALG Research has both candidates at 47 percent (500 likely voters; Oct. 16-21; +/- 4.4 percentage point MoE). It does not include presidential margins. — NY-24: An incredibly tight race in this district in a Syracuse.com/Siena College poll: Both GOP Rep. John Katko and Democrat Dana Balter are at 45 percent, with the Working Families Party nominee Steven Williams at 5 percent (558 likely voters; Oct. 20-22; +/- 4.1 percentage point MoE). Biden comfortably leads Trump in the district, 53 percent to 39 percent, after Hillary Clinton carried the district by about 4 points in 2016. THE DEBATE STAGE — A couple of House debates: In NJ-05 between Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer and Republican Frank Pallotta (video from the New Jersey Globe) and in NY-24 between Katko and Balter (Syracuse Post-Standard's Mark Weiner). CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "These are people that believe 'Lord of the Rings' is a documentary. And the fact that we're trying to appeal to them is ridiculous to me." — Rep. Denver Riggleman (R-Va.), on "Meet the Press" on QAnon conspiracy theorists. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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