| | | | | |  | | By Zach Montellaro | Presented by the Partnership for America's Health Care Future | Editor's Note: Weekly Score is a weekly version of POLITICO Pro's daily Campaigns policy newsletter, Morning Score. POLITICO Pro is a policy intelligence platform that combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.
| | | — On the eve of Election Day, over 93 million Americans have already cast their ballots. The numbers suggest a historic turnout, even with comparably low turnout expected in-person on Nov. 3. — Our final election projections are here, with Joe Biden favored to hit the all-important 270 mark without having to win any of the states in the toss-up category. — POLITICO's Campaigns team fanned out in North Carolina in the last days before the election, diving in on two big races in the state: The battle for the Senate, and a surprisingly competitive House race in a red-leaning district. Good Monday morning. One day to go. On a brief personal note: A big thank you to every one of you for running with Score for the entirety of this cycle. It isn't over yet, and we're running through the tape: Stick with us. Email me at zmontellaro@politico.com and follow me on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro. Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com, amutnick@politico.com and srodriguez@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @JamesArkin, @allymutnick and @sabrod123. Days until the 2020 election: 1 | | A message from the Partnership for America's Health Care Future: Every American deserves access to affordable, high-quality health coverage and care. During this critical time, let's build on what's working where private coverage, Medicare and Medicaid work together – not start over with a one-size-fits-all system like the public option. Learn more. | | | | | | THE EARLY VOTE — The Monday before Election Day has always struck me as kind of an awkward day. How much of the race is already baked into the cake, and we're just staring in through the window of the oven, waiting for it to finish? It turns out this year, a whole lot. As of late Sunday, more than 93 million voters had already voted — 93 million! — which would represent nearly 68 percent of the total turnout in 2016, according to the U.S. Elections Project. A few states have already surpassed their 2016 turnout entirety, like Texas and Hawaii. But several others were close and will likely blow past it once Election Day voters cast their ballots, including some battleground states (for either the presidency or the Senate): Florida, Georgia, Montana, Nevada and North Carolina. That's not to suggest that the early-voting numbers are determinative — that either President Donald Trump or Biden is doomed/has already secured victory — but that a historically low percentage of votes will be cast in-person on Election Day. The numbers do suggest, however, that turnout is going to be incredibly high. (To give you an interesting point of comparison: We've already shot past the total 2014 turnout by well over 10 million people.) Some have even projected that there could ultimately be close to (or even hit) 100 million ballots cast before Election Day. "If we're on pace for turnout of 150 million or more, that means that the Election Day electorate is maybe only 50-55 million, which would be the lowest Election Day turnout we've seen in a generation," David Becker, the executive director of the Center for Election Innovation & Research, told reporters on Friday. "But it would be part of the highest turnout we've ever seen in American history." — And this time tomorrow, polls will be just about opening. (Or they're already open!) But there are plenty of outstanding questions for Election Day, I wrote. On everything from how in-person voting will go, to will Americans be patient waiting for results, read on to see how election experts and administrators are feeling ahead of Tuesday. | | | | EXCLUSIVE: "THE CIRCUS" & POLITICO TEAM UP TO PULL BACK THE CURTAIN ON THE MOST UNPRECEDENTED PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN HISTORY: It's been the most unconventional and contentious election season of our lifetime. The approach taken by each candidate couldn't be more different, yet the stakes couldn't be higher as we cross the finish line. Join POLITICO's John Harris, Laura Barrón-López, Gabby Orr and Eugene Daniels in a conversation with John Heilemann, Alex Wagner, Mark McKinnon and Jennifer Palmieri of Showtime's "The Circus" on Thursday, Nov. 5 at 8 p.m. EST for an insiders' look at the Trump and Biden campaigns, behind-the-scenes details and nuggets from the trail, and the latest on where things stand and where they are heading. DON'T MISS THIS! REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | ELECTION FORECAST — Our presidential state ratings are final: 279 electoral votes leaning toward Biden, and 163 electoral votes leaning toward Trump. That means Trump needs to sweep the "toss-up" states — a collection that now includes Georgia, which moved from "Lean Republican" — and pick off at least one of the "Lean Democratic" states. POLITICO's Steve Shepard has a full look at the landscape (more on downballot races below). THROUGH THE BATTLEGROUND — One last trip from the POLITICO 2020 team through the most crucial battleground states. "Almost every traditional yardstick for measuring elections Trump seems on the verge of being denied a second term. Even so, he can't be counted out," the team wrote. Here's a trip through all the states: Arizona by Laura Barrón-López; Florida by Marc Caputo; Georgia by Elena Schneider; Michigan by Tim Alberta; Minnesota by David Siders ; North Carolina by Michael Kruse; Pennsylvania by Holly Otterbein (plus a bonus story from Holly and Marc on how Pennsylvania is the central state in the entire race); and Wisconsin by Natasha Korecki. PROJECTING WINNERS — Perhaps more-so than any previous year, there's a lot of focus being paid to how media outlets will project winners. This is especially true, following Axios' Jonathan Swan reporting that Trump plans to prematurely declare victory on Tuesday if he thinks he looks to be ahead, which Trump denied at a rally, immediately saying he'll be going to court. (Which, considering everything the president has said up to this point, feels like almost a given he will try to do that.) So how are media outlets handling it? Perhaps the most important people in this situation will be the TV executives and journalists dictating coverage. The New York Times' Michael Grynbaum reports that the network executives are pleading patience and caution, and will offer "constant reassurance to viewers about the integrity of the results." The AP's David Bauder also breaks down how the wire service's decision desk operates: "For each state, a Washington-based analyst is paired with a race caller who studies political history and demographic trends. If it's a state where the presidential contest isn't close, the AP may declare a winner after polls have shut based mostly on interviews conducted with voters through its AP VoteCast survey. The closer a race is, the more AP's decision desk relies on actual votes rather than VoteCast. ... A winner is declared when the AP concludes there's no way the loser can catch up." NBC News also has an explainer for their decision desk. For those curious how POLITICO will project winners: We don't on our own! (Which is largely true for most print outlets.) POLITICO will call a race when either the AP calls it, or when three TV networks all project the same winner. THE LAST DAY — Hard to believe that today's the last day of campaigning. Team Biden will converge on Pennsylvania, with both Biden and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif) (and their respective spouses) all in Pennsylvania today (Biden will also make a quick visit to Cleveland). Trump is barnstorming swing states, with rallies in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Vice President Mike Pence has rallies in Pennsylvania. THE CASH DASH — Biden's campaign has quietly started to raise money for a possible post-Election Day fight with Trump. "In recent calls, Biden allies and donors discussed preparations to counter potential lawsuits from Trump and his campaign, and they detailed how close results in key states could set off prolonged, expensive legal fights, according to two people who participated in those calls. If vote totals are close or contested, the funds would support the efforts of dozens of lawyers working for Biden's campaign, including some who have already deployed to key battleground states as part of voter protection programs," POLITICO's Elena Schneider and Natasha Korecki reported. "On one call with Biden's Lawyers Committee, a donor group made up of attorneys, Biden aides told attendees how quickly the campaign expected litigation to flood the courts in the hours and days after the election, contending that Biden needed donors ready to support the effort immediately." THE PROCESS — A federal court in Houston is holding an emergency hearing later today over a last-ditch effort by Republicans in Texas to toss out nearly 127,000 ballots in Harris County, POLITICO's Josh Gerstein and I wrote, a bid to invalidate all ballots cast at drive-through polling places. — Pennsylvania Secretary of the Commonwealth Kathy Boockvar ordered that local election officials count, while continuing to segregate , ballots that arrive after close of polls on Tuesday and Friday that are postmarked by Election Day (or have an unclear postmark). The Supreme Court previously punted on the case, which left the extension for the ballot return deadline in place. However, the court could potentially come back to the case. (Here's what I wrote with Josh from last week.) COALITION BUILDING — If Democrats are going to ultimately flip Arizona, it starts with a massive effort to turn out Latino voters. "This year is the big test: Is Arizona flippable? And what role will Latinos, who are predominantly of Mexican origin, play in making it happen?" Laura wrote. "Coronavirus has made the outreach harder, local Latino electeds and organizers say, but the impact of the pandemic is motivating voters." — Biden's campaign is making one final push for black voters in Florida. POLITICO's Gary Fineout and Sabrina Rodriguez have the details. | | | |   | | | | | | THE TAR HEEL STATE — The POLITICO Campaigns team spent some of the closing days in North Carolina, home to a lot of competitive races. First, our own James Arkin on the Senate race between GOP Sen. Thom Tillis and Democrat Cal Cunningham, where Tillis is "campaigning everywhere" and Cunningham is "hard to find": "The diverging strategies are on display in the final weekend of a race that could decide control of the Senate. Tillis is barnstorming the state, flanked by a roster of big-name GOP surrogates," James wrote. "Cunningham hasn't advised his movements or events to the public or the press, often posting photos of interactions with voters on social media hours or days after appearances at polling locations or other stops across the state. His campaign declined multiple requests from POLITICO to make him available or share details of his schedule over the weekend, as early voting concluded Saturday afternoon." — And in NC-11, the race between Republican Madison Cawthorn and Democrat Moe Davis is surprisingly competitive, despite the red tilt of the district. "The race for the deep-red seat has gotten surprisingly close, with polls from both parties showing a single-digit race," POLITICO Campaigns' Ally Mutnick wrote from Asheville, N.C., where she spoke to both candidates. "And national Republicans have invested over $700,000 in TV ads to boost Cawthorn. Worried about an upset and that the first-time candidate needs advice, the National Republican Congressional Committee has held frequent strategy calls with the campaign, according to sources familiar with the sessions." | | A message from the Partnership for America's Health Care Future: As health care remains at the top of Americans' minds, it's critical we continue to build on and improve what's working in health care where private coverage, Medicare and Medicaid work together. That means strengthening protections for those with pre-existing conditions and improving coverage for essential health benefits – like preventive care, prescription drugs and emergency services – that hundreds of millions of Americans rely on. Let's build on what's working in health care to lower costs, protect patient choice, expand access, improve quality and foster innovation so that every American family has access to the affordable health coverage and care they deserve – not start over with a government-controlled health insurance system like the public option. Learn more. | | | ELECTION FORECAST (PART TWO) — While the battle for the Senate technically remains in the "toss-up" category, Democrats are slight favorites (we have 48 seats leaning toward Democrats, and 47 leaning toward Republicans). The Georgia Senate race between GOP Sen. David Perdue and Democrat Jon Ossoff moves from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up," joining Iowa, Maine, Montana and North Carolina among the races POLITICO sees as on a knife's edge. Barring other surprises — like a GOP victory in Michigan, or Democratic wins in South Carolina, Kansas or Alaska — Republicans would need to win four of the five "toss-up" races to keep control of the Senate if Biden beats Trump. — The House: We moved 17 races — 16 toward Democrats. That includes moving some of the most vulnerable freshmen into the "Lean Democratic" category, like Reps. Joe Cunningham in SC-01, Elaine Luria in VA-02 and Cindy Axne in IA-03. GOP Rep. Chip Roy sees his TX-21 seat move to "toss up," as does GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in PA-01. The only seat to move toward Republicans? DCCC Chair Cheri Bustos' IL-17, which moves from "Likely Democratic" to "Lean Democratic." Click here for a full list of House changes. THE SENATE MAP — Trump's tenure in the White House has endangered Republicans' control of the Senate -- but may also have long-term ripple effects as well. "Senate Republicans enter Election Day with an outside shot at protecting their 53-seat majority, particularly if Trump can overperform expectations in Senate battlegrounds," POLITICO's Burgess Everett wrote. "But even a surprise hold will probably sweep away some prominent Republicans that otherwise might have had a better chance if Trump were a more conventional president. That both rising stars and longtime senators are threatened underscores how far-reaching the damage could be."
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO TRANSITION PLAYBOOK: No matter who wins this week, a lot will change in the coming months. Advisers to both candidates have been working behind the scenes for months, vetting potential nominees, political appointments, and drafting policy proposals for the first 100 days. Our Transition Playbook newsletter, written for political insiders, tracks the appointments, the people, and the next administration's power centers. Don't miss out. Subscribe today. | | | | |
CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Once we get through COVID, Michael Bennet and I are going to have … the biggest party anybody's ever seen. I guarantee it." — Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, talking about his sometimes rival whom he is trying to join in the Senate.
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