Monday, November 16, 2020

Dems start the Georgia runoffs in a deep hole — Trump’s crumbling legal ‘strategy’ — The uncalled House races

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Nov 16, 2020 View in browser
 
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By Zach Montellaro

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Quick Fix

— Control of the Senate will come down to the pair of Senate runoffs in Georgia. To flip the upper chamber, Democrats will have to overcome history — twice.

— President Donald Trump's legal "strategy" to overturn the election is being turned away repeatedly in the courts, under the leadership of Rudy Giuliani.

— Nearly a dozen House races still remain uncalled. Here is what we are still waiting on.

Good Monday morning. Email me at zmontellaro@politico.com and follow me on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com, amutnick@politico.com and srodriguez@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @JamesArkin, @allymutnick and @sabrod123.

Days until the LA-05 runoff: 19

Days until the Georgia Senate runoffs: 50

Days until the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections: 350

Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 722

 

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TopLine

ON MY MIND — With control of the Senate up for grabs, Democrats will have to beat back the history of Republicans trouncing Democrats in Georgia runoffs. And they'll have to do it in both races: Between GOP Sen. David Perdue and Democrat Jon Ossoff, and GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler and Democrat Raphael Warnock.

"Both parties are mobilizing for a two-month sprint that will focus the entire political world on Georgia and easily cost more than $100 million. But the odds are stacked against Democrats: The runoff system itself is a relic of the Jim Crow era, when the white majority wanted to prevent candidates from winning with a plurality of the vote," POLITICO Campaigns' James Arkin reported from Cumming, Georgia. "Ossoff, Warnock and their allies are well aware of their party's history of losses. They think they can defy it by out-organizing Republicans and reminding their voters that they have the chance to deliver a Democratic Senate."

The challenge for both parties will be turning out voters who showed up in historic numbers for the November election, in a state that President-elect Joe Biden carried narrowly over Trump. (Or Friday, the AP called Georgia for Biden as the audit is underway, and North Carolina for Trump.) "Runoffs are all about turnout. It's not about changing people's minds in most cases," Scott Johnson, a state Board of Education member and former GOP chair of Cobb County, told James. "We're going to work hard. We're going to turn out," Johnson added. "I'm not believing for one minute the other side isn't going to work hard and turn out, too. Because they will."

The messaging between the two parties has been very clear: "Republicans want to save Georgians from socialism. Democrats want to save their health care and flip the Senate," James wrote. (This guy, very active week in Georgia!)

We have some new ads. One ad from Warnock attacks Loeffler over her stock trading , and a second has Warnock speaking direct-to-camera about health care, while hitting Loeffler. An ad from Perdue features Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, talking about the "Schumer/Pelosi/Ossoff change," using footage of Schumer saying "we change America."

 

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TopLine

LEGAL EAGLES — The Trump campaign's legal efforts to overturn the results of the election, or otherwise delay certification, have gained basically no ground. "Along the way, Trump lawyers have abruptly dropped core claims, been admonished in court for lack of candor and even been forced to admit they had no evidence of fraud, while their client inaccurately rails to the contrary on Twitter," POLITICO's Marc Caputo wrote. ProPublica's Ian MacDougall has more on the apparent judge-shopping the campaign is doing: "Whether the judges are liberal or conservative, working for state or federal courts, they've overwhelmingly demanded that the Trump and Republican plaintiffs deliver evidence to back their claims and they've been quick to reject what they consider baseless lawsuits."

And who is leading these legal charges? Giuliani. POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "With the campaign already facing exceedingly long odds in its recount efforts, there are widespread concerns within Trumpworld and GOP circles that Giuliani's antics are thwarting the president's legal machinery from within."

— The Trump campaign significantly pared back its federal lawsuit in Pennsylvania. POLITICO's Josh Gerstein: "The retrenched version of the suit filed late Sunday morning with a federal court in Williamsport, Pa., withdrew the request for relief over the poll-watching allegations and now focuses solely on varying practices by county officials for handling mail-in ballots that lacked an internal secrecy envelope or otherwise ran afoul of the state's election rules. … With Biden nearly 69,000 votes ahead of Trump in the Keystone State, the number of cured ballots seems likely to be too small to matter. However, the revised version of the Trump campaign's federal court suit continues to ask for a court order barring Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar from certifying the statewide election results for president."

LIFE IN THE CITY — In big cities across the country, Biden's vote counts were relatively flat, with Trump actually running ahead of what he did in 2016. "Trump improved on his performance in urban areas in part because he did better in mostly white, working-class precincts where he ran strongly four years ago. And in some places, Trump also picked up slightly more votes in neighborhoods with large Latino populations and, to a lesser degree, majority-Black communities," POLITICO's Holly Otterbein wrote. "The results aren't enough to signal a GOP resurgence in urban America — Biden won overwhelmingly in most big cities. But when paired with Trump expectation-defying performance in predominantly Latino areas in south Texas and Florida, it's a warning sign for the Democratic Party in the years ahead."

DEATH TO THE BELLWETHER — Before this year's election, there were 19 counties that had voted for the eventual winner every year since 1980. But only one of those ended up backing Biden this year, The Wall Street Journal's John McCormick reported. (Clallam County in Washington is the sole survivor.)

 

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Down the Ballot

THE HOUSE MAP — Control of the House currently sits at 219 Democrats to 203 Republicans. On Friday, the 10th and 11th Democratic incumbents went down: Republican Young Kim defeated Democratic Rep. Gil Cisneros in CA-39, and Democratic Rep. Max Rose conceded to Republican Nicole Mallitotakis in NY-11. And in NY-24, Republican Rep. John Katko secured another term, after Democrat Dana Balter conceded. So what are the 11 seats that are left uncalled? I'm glad you asked (but most of them are in New York!):

— CA-21: Former GOP Rep. David Valadado narrowly leads freshman Democratic Rep. T.J. Cox, but there are plenty of votes to be counted.

— CA-25: GOP Rep. Mike Garcia leads Democrat Christy Smith by roughly 100 votes.

— IA-02: The race between Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democrat Rita Hart for a Democratic-controlled open seat was headed to a recount, with Miller-Meeks having a narrow lead.

— LA-05: This deep-red open seat is headed to a Dec. 5 runoff. The AP called the first spot for Republican Luke Letlow, but it had not called the second one. Republican Lance Harris had a small lead over Democrat Candy Christophe, but the Monroe News-Star Greg Hilburn has set the race up between the two Republicans.

— NY-01: GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin had a roughly 65,000 vote lead over Democracy Nancy Goroff.

— NY-02: Republican Andrew Garbarino led Democrat Jackie Gordon by about 43,000 votes for the Republican-held open seat.

— NY-03: Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi had about a 6,000 vote lead over Republican George Santos. The lead flipped once absentee ballots started to be counted. (Fun fact: This is yours truly's home district.)

— NY-18: Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney led Republican Chele Farley by about 10,000 votes.

— NY-19: Freshman Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado led Kyle Van De Water led by about 15,000 votes.

— NY-22: Former GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney led freshman Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi by about 24,000 votes.

— UT-04: Republican Burgess Owens leads freshman Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams by a couple thousand votes. The Salt Lake Tribune's Taylor Stevens wrote that Owens' lead "looked to be insurmountable on Friday," but the AP has not called the race. The canvass is Tuesday.

 

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SPENDING PROBLEMS? — Rep. Steven Palazzo (R-Miss.) is being investigated by the Office of Congressional Ethics over campaign spending to an LLC he owns for office rental space, and payments to an accounting firm owned by his now ex-wife, the Biloxi Sun Herald's Margaret Baker and Anita Lee reported. A spokesperson for Palazzo said he was cooperating with the investigation, and said the complaints, which came from the Campaign Legal Center, were politically motivated and originated from a former primary opponent.

THE GOVERNATORS — Worst-kept secret in Virginia: Former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe is going to announce his run for his old job "in the coming weeks," Axios' Hans Nichols reported.

REGRETS, I'VE HAD A FEW — Charles Koch, the Kansas billionaire who spent an untold amount of money on campaigns with his late brother, expressed regret about the partisan nature of his work, which has helped fuels Republicans up and down the ballot. The Wall Street Journal's Douglas Belkin : "'We did not create the tea party. We shared their concern about unsustainable government spending, and we supported some tea-party groups on that issue,' Mr. Koch wrote in an email. 'But it seems to me the tea party was largely unsuccessful long-term, given that we're coming off a Republican administration with the largest government spending in history.' Mr. Koch said he has since come to regret his partisanship, which he says badly deepened divisions. 'Boy, did we screw up!' he writes in his new book. 'What a mess!'"

 

TRACK THE TRANSITION, SUBSCRIBE TO TRANSITION PLAYBOOK: As states certify their election results, President-elect Biden is building an administration. The staffing decisions made in the coming days, weeks, and months will send clear-cut signals about his administration's agenda and priorities. Transition Playbook is the definitive guide to what could be one of the most consequential transfers of power in American history. Written for political insiders, it tracks the appointments, people, and the emerging power centers of the new administration. Stay in the know, subscribe today.

 
 

PARTY LEADERSHIP — Arizona state Democratic Party chair Felecia Rotellini announced that she would not seek reelection after the party's wins this year, KTAR's Kevin Stone.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "He is not going to get his knickers in a twist around Donald Trump's bad manners." — Former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun (D-Ill.), talking about Biden to The New York Times.

 

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