| | | | | |  | | By Zach Montellaro | Editor's Note: Weekly Score is a weekly version of POLITICO Pro's daily Campaigns policy newsletter, Morning Score. POLITICO Pro is a policy intelligence platform that combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.
| | | — With new House maps just around the corner, members could be squeezed out of their seats once the lines are redrawn. Here's who is most at risk. — A panel of judges on the Third Circuit unanimously denied President Donald Trump's appeal trying to overturn the election in Pennsylvania, accompanied by another judicial opinion eviscerating the work of the president's legal team. — Former GOP Rep. David Valadao is returning to Congress after defeating freshman Democratic Rep. T.J. Cox in CA-21, another victory for House Republicans in California. Good Monday morning. No Score for four straight days! I hope none of you got separation anxiety. Email me at zmontellaro@politico.com and follow me on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro. Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com, amutnick@politico.com and srodriguez@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @JamesArkin, @allymutnick and @sabrod123. Days until the LA-05 runoff: 5 Days until the Georgia Senate runoffs: 36 Days until the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections: 337 Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 708
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| | | THE MAP LINES — The new calendar year will bring new maps for the House. And while it isn't immediately clear when census data will be delivered, we're ready for a cycle that will turn "safe seats into hotly contested battlegrounds, forcing colleagues into cutthroat internecine wars and spurring a cascade of early retirements," POLITICO Campaigns' Ally Mutnick wrote. This process will be most acute in the roughly ten states that are projected to lose a district, and especially so in the smaller states where the delegations aren't big to begin with. Ally has a look at who could be facing the chopping block. Let's break them into three categories: the small-state squeezes, the powerless freshman and the shifting battlegrounds. Two of the most prominent small-state squeezes could happen in Rhode Island's all-Democratic, two-member delegation and West Virginia's all-Republican, three member delegation. Rhode Island is projected to shrink to just one at-large seat, which could pit Reps. Jim Langevin and David Cicilline against each other. (A potential out here could be the 2022 open gubernatorial race.) And in West Virginia, the state's expected two new districts could divide the state into North and South, which may set up a battle between Reps. Alex Mooney and David McKinley. Those who just won their seats may also get the short end of the stick in the redistricting. In Alabama (which is expected to lose a district), that could mean a newly-elected Republican, like Rep.-elect Barry Moore or Rep.-elect Jerry Carl, being a potential sacrificial lamb for the delegation, where longer-serving members may have more influence on the process. Another out here: GOP Sen. Richard Shelby 's potential retirement could draw a member to run, avoiding a showdown. (A wildcard would be if a second majority-minority district in the state gets drawn, in addition to Democratic Rep. Terri Sewell's.) And lastly, the perennial battlegrounders. Some states to watch include Illinois, which is set to drop a district. Republican Rep. Rodney Davis likely has a target on his back from Democrats who control the entire redistricting process in the state, but who will also be scrambling to try to find more favorable confines for outgoing DCCC Chair Cheri Bustos and Rep. Lauren Underwood , both of whom had close calls in 2020. The opposite is true in Georgia, where Republicans control the process. Although the state isn't set to lose (or gain) any seats, the GOP may "want to address the ticking time bomb north of Atlanta" that could ultimately combine the battleground territories of Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath and Rep.-elect Carolyn Bourdeaux into one safe blue seat. State legislative battles also come into play, as well: Because Democrats failed to flip the GOP-held state Senate in Minnesota, the Land of 10,000 Lakes is a real wildcard, and Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Kan.) could be facing more unfavorable territory after Democrats failed to break Republicans' supermajority in the state legislature. — A big case for these map lines in front of the Supreme Court today: Trump v. New York. Justices will hear arguments over the president's July memorandum that sought to exclude undocumented immigrants from apportionment data for the 2020 Census. SCOTUSBlog's Amy Howe has a good preview of the case laying out the basics and what's at stake. The case is both over if the plaintiffs have standing to bring the case in the first place, and over the substantive issues with the memorandum. Due to the pandemic, audio for the argument will be livestreamed at 10 a.m. Eastern; you can tune in on C-SPAN . We'll have a full recap of the oral arguments in Tuesday's Score. A procedural note from SCOTUSBlog: "After Monday's oral argument, the justices are likely to issue their decision relatively quickly, to allow the reapportionment to proceed on schedule. But the tight timeframe for finalizing the census data and delivering the apportionment information raises another question outside of the courtroom: whether the administration, even with a favorable ruling, will be able to implement Trump's memorandum as a practical matter."
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Julio Cortez/AP Photo | LEGAL EAGLES — As is now routine, Trump lost another lawsuit seeking to overturn the results of the election, with a panel of judges on the 3rd Circuit rejecting the campaign's attempts to appeal a lower court's order dismissing their case. "Voters, not lawyers, choose the President. Ballots, not briefs, decide elections," Judge Stephanos Bibas — himself an appointee of Trump — wrote for the panel of all-Republican appointees, with an opinion shredding the president's legal team's efforts. POLITICO's Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein : "Much of the appeals court panel's ruling read like a rebuke of [Rudy] Giuliani for the Trump campaign's legal tactics. Bibas repeatedly emphasized that Giuliani and the campaign never actually alleged voter fraud in this suit, despite their heated public rhetoric." Trump tweeted that he'll appeal, which would put the case in front of the U.S. Supreme Court. But, as Kyle and Gerstein note, it appears this case will get "a chilly reception" at the high court, "since justices often look to dissenting opinions from their ideological peers as fodder for interest at the high court." — The Pennsylvania state Supreme Court also tossed out a case brought by GOP Rep. Mike Kelly and others that sought to block certification in the state, saying they waited too long to file their case, which was predicated on the state's mail-voting system being unconstitutional. The Philadelphia Inquirer's Jeremy Roebuck : "Had Kelly and the suit's seven other Republican plaintiffs been forthright in their concerns over the constitutionality of the mail-voting statute, the court found, they would have filed their legal challenge before the new law was used in a primary and general election and would not have waited only until after it had become apparent that their favored candidate had lost." (RE)COUNT THE VOTES — Both Dane and Milwaukee counties in Wisconsin wrapped up their recounts, which the Trump campaign shelled out $3 million for, resulted in a net gain of 87 votes for President-elect Joe Biden, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Patrick Marley reported. Trump claimed in a tweet it was all part of the plan, tweeting that he will soon bring a lawsuit. PRIMARY PROBLEMS — Remember when the technology meltdown at the Iowa caucuses was the biggest of our problems? Simpler times, folks. But if you would like to relive that magical time in early-to-mid February, you're in luck. The Des Moines Register's Brianne Pfannenstiel reported that the state Democratic Party intends to release the results of its investigation into what happened by the end of the year. CERTIFY THIS — The certification process continues on. Today, the state canvass in Arizona will take place at 1 p.m. Eastern, and Secretary of State Katie Hobbs will certify the results. It is being streamed by the secretary of state's office. — The first "hearing" the Trump campaign promoted came and went last week in Pennsylvania. Here's the local coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer's Jeremy Roebuck and Sean Collins Wlash and Spotlight PA's Angela Couloumbis : "Addressing members of the state Senate Majority Policy Committee in a proceeding that played out like a campaign rally — with firebrand speeches from GOP lawmakers and whooping cheers from dozens of supporters — Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani pressed his baseless case that the election had been stolen and the truth covered up by 'Big Tech,' the media, and the courts." State Sen. Doug Mastriano — one of the ringleaders of the hearing who learned later, during a meeting with Trump in the Oval Office, that he tested positive for the coronavirus, per the AP's Mark Scolforo — said he would push the state legislature to appoint its own delegates to the Electoral College. Reminder: Pennsylvania has already certified its election results. State legislative leaders in the Keystone State have shot down the rouge legislature theory, and legal experts have expressed great skepticism about that premise. | | | | NEXT WEEK - DON'T MISS THE MILKEN INSTITUTE FUTURE OF HEALTH SUMMIT 2020: POLITICO will feature a special edition Future Pulse newsletter at the Milken Institute Future of Health Summit. The newsletter takes readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of global health industry leaders and innovators determined to confront and conquer the most significant health challenges. Covid-19 has exposed weaknesses across our health systems, particularly in the treatment of our most vulnerable communities, driving the focus of the 2020 conference on the converging crises of public health, economic insecurity, and social justice. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage from December 7–9. | | | | |
| | | THE GOLDEN STATE — Valadao is headed back to the halls of Congress, defeating Cox in the San Joaquin Valley-based district. Despite the thrashing that Trump himself received in California, the Golden State turned out to be a bright spot otherwise for Republicans, POLITICO's David Siders wrote. "The pendulum is swinging back," Jim Brulte, a former California Republican Party chair and longtime legislative leader, told Siders. "For every action there's an equal and opposite reaction. That's not just physics. It's also political. And I think you've started to see the reaction to total Democrat control in California." (Democrats do, of course, still control every statewide office and have supermajorities in the legislature.) And with CA-21 out of the way, what's left on the map? Not much! We're sitting at four races where either the AP hasn't called the race, or one of the candidates hasn't conceded. — CA-25: GOP Rep. Mike Garcia has a thin lead over Democrat Christy Smith of about 400 votes. The Los Angeles Daily News' Ryan Carter writes that today "will likely draw a close to the long, windy, turbulent race that almost fittingly is going to be something of a photo finish. That is ... pending a recount." — IA-02: Talk about an incredibly close election. After a recount, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks has a six-vote lead over Democrat Rita Hart for the open, Democratic-held district. Results in Iowa are expected to be certified today. The Iowa City Press-Citizen's Zachary Oren Smith : "In a statement, Hart's campaign manager, Zach Meunier, did not say whether the campaign will file a legal challenge in the race, the closest House election in the nation. That would trigger a review by a judicial panel and cast continued uncertainty over the outcome." — NY-01: GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin has a comfortable lead of over 60,000 votes over Democrat Jackie Gordon. Ballot counting in Suffolk County was delayed after an election worker tested positive, Newsday's Craig Schneider and Michael Gormley wrote last week. — NY-22: The race between Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi and former GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney is incredibly tight, with WBNG's Josh Rosenblatt having Brindisi up 13 votes, according to numbers county boards of elections submitted to a judge that he obtained. The vote tallying in this Upstate New York district could charitably be described as disastrous. WBNG's Ricky Sayer has a story on the problems, which revolves around being unsure if ballots were counted or not because sticky notes may have fallen off. ON MY MIND — Trump's repeated attacks on the security of the election in Georgia may come back to bite the GOP in the pair of Senate runoffs in the state. "Driven by Trump's insistence that Georgia's elections are indelibly rife with fraud, conspiratorial MAGA figures are calling for a boycott of the two Senate runoff races, slated for Jan. 5, that will determine which party controls the upper chamber," POLITICO's Tina Nguyen and James Arkin wrote. "The growing chorus has caught the attention of some of Trump's top surrogates, who have scrambled to push back against the movement." And while rally crowds aren't indicative of the electorate at large, a back-and-forth between RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel and a Georgia voter ought to give many Republicans pause. CNN's DJ Judd and Ryan Nobles have video of a voter quizzing McDaniel on how the pair of Senate runoffs aren't already decided, alluding to the president's bunk fraud claims. One group of operatives that's worried about that? Those tied to the president's eldest son. "Advisers to Donald Trump Jr. are launching a super PAC to prod the president's supporters to vote in the upcoming Georgia Senate runoffs," POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reported. "The group, Save the U.S. Senate PAC, will this week start airing commercials featuring Trump Jr. and aimed at mobilizing Trump backers across Georgia." — And Sen. David Perdue's (R-Ga.) stock trading is back in the news. The AP's Brian Slodysko and Richard Lardner describe Georgia's senior senator's timing as "impeccable" on a series of trades with stocks of a company whose board of directors he once served on. "There is no definitive proof that Perdue, who is among the wealthier members of the Senate, acted on information gained as a member of Congress or through his long-standing relationship with company officials," they wrote. The New York Times' Katie Benner, Adam Goldman, Nicholas Fandos and Kate Kelly reported that the trading of the Cardlytics stock "drew the attention this spring of investigators at the Justice Department," but they ultimately closed the investigation without pursuing charges. — We have a debate! GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler and Democrat Raphael Warnock will meet for a debate hosted by The Atlanta Press Club on Sunday at 7 p.m. It'll air live locally on Georgia Public Broadcasting … and also on CNN across the country. Democrat Jon Ossoff is currently scheduled to debate an empty podium on the same day at 5 p.m., since Perdue turned down the debate. — And wouldn't you know it, we have more Georgia ads! In the regularly-scheduled election, an ad from Ossoff has a local restaurant owner attacking Perdue over his pandemic response and stock trading. A second Ossoff ad has him talking in Spanish about health care, infrastructure and more. In the special election, a coordinated buy from Loeffler and the NRSC ties (in Spanish) Warnock to socialism. A Warnock ad has him talking about loving your neighbor as yourself, which he says in missing in Washington. FIRST IN SCORE — THE NEXT CONGRESS — Let America Vote, the liberal group that merged with End Citizens United earlier this year, is going up with a $25,000 digital campaign urging Congress to back the For The People Act (otherwise known as HR1), highlighting the various election initiatives within the bill. The campaign targets "members of Congress, their staffs, and other policymakers" on news sites. The ultimate fate of the legislation almost assuredly rests on who controls the Senate. It initially passed out of the House in early 2019 and died in the Senate; House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said before the November election that it would again be among the first things a Democratic-controlled Congress takes up. FIRST IN SCORE — ALWAYS WATCHING — America Rising, the Republican oppo and tracking firm, is out with a memo detailing its work during the cycle. Some of the interesting numbers in the memo : The group's Biden research totaled 3,620 pages and the group said its trackers recorded 5,426 hours of footage across 173 different races. Lots of footage! WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE — Live by the Trump endorsement, die by the Trump endorsement. Trump had his first TV interview since the election on Fox Business Network on Sunday, in which he ripped Georgia GOP Gov. Brian Kemp. (Trump has been grousing because Biden won the state, while he spreads unfounded conspiracies of fraud.) "The governor has done nothing," Trump said. "He's done absolutely nothing. I'm ashamed that I endorsed him." The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein : "The swipe could haunt Kemp through the 2022 midterms, when he is gearing up to face Stacey Abrams in a likely rematch. It appears increasingly possible that he might first have to survive a primary challenge from a Trump-backed adversary — perhaps [GOP Rep. Doug] Collins, a four-term congressman now leading the president's Georgia recount effort." CODA — 2020 HEADLINE OF THE DAY: "Monolith disappears, rock pile and mini pyramid now in its place" — From KSL. (This is aliens, right?) | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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