Monday, May 24, 2021

‘Audit’ deepens Arizona’s Republican divide — The Republicans running to oversee elections — Texas could slash polling places for voters of color

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May 24, 2021 View in browser
 
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By Stephanie Murray

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Quick Fix

— The "audit" in Arizona's Maricopa County resumes today, and the chaotic process is deepening Republican divides.

— Republicans who believe the 2020 election was stolen from Trump are running for the top election administrator jobs in state after state.

— The number of polling places for voters of color in Texas' major counties could decrease if a state Senate Republican-backed elections proposal makes it through the legislature.

Good Monday morning. This is my first edition of Weekly Score, and I'm so glad to be here. Email me at smurray@politico.com and follow me on Twitter at @stephanie_murr.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, zmontellaro@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @ZachMontellaro, @JamesArkin and @allymutnick.

Days until the NM-01 special election: 8

Days until the New Jersey and Virginia primaries: 15

Days until the TX-06 special election runoff: 64

Days until the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections and OH-11 and OH-15 special elections: 162

Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 533

Days until the 2024 election: 1,262

 

JOIN TUESDAY FOR A CONVERSATION ON AMERICA'S MATERNAL HEALTH CRISIS: The maternal and infant mortality rates in the U.S. have been rising, especially for women and babies of color. One year into the pandemic, how have social determinants of health contributed to maternal and child health outcomes for Black women and other women of color? Join POLITICO for a deep-dive conversation for which we'll use Illinois as a case study to understand how social determinants of health and Covid-19 complicate efforts to eliminate maternal and infant mortality. We will also explore the various public health and policy solutions to reduce racial disparities during pregnancy and postpartum. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
TopLine

Ballots are pulled aside for a hand audit by Maricopa County Elections Department staff.

The 2020 election "audit" in Arizona's Maricopa County resumes on Monday after a 10-day break. | Courtney Pedroza/Getty Images

THE PROCESS The 2020 election "audit" in Arizona's Maricopa County resumes today, and the Republican divides are only growing larger.

The processing of 2.1 million ballots will begin after a 10-day break, and former President Donald Trump is demanding "lackluster" state Attorney General Mark Brnovich address the "Crime of the Century" — Trump's baseless claim that the election was rigged in Arizona. The pressure could spell trouble for Brnovich, a Republican considering running for Senate. And Trump, eager to keep the party in his thrall, knows it. "Brnovich must put himself in gear, or no Arizona Republican will vote for him in the upcoming elections," Trump said.

A key player in how the audit proceeds is a supporter of the former president. Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne, a Trump donor, is in charge of recruiting audit volunteers, according to an email obtained by the Arizona Republic's Robert Anglen and Jen Fifield. "Byrne will handle background checks, non-disclosure agreements and volunteer agreements of audit workers," they write.

At the same time, it seems Maricopa County is preparing a lawsuit. An attorney for the county's mostly Republican board of supervisors sent a letter to the Republican state Senate president on Friday demanding all audit-related documents be preserved. The letter came after the audit's Twitter account accused the county of destroying a "directory full of election databases," which the county denies. Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) echoed the claim in a letter to the Justice Department.

"Because of the wrongful accusations that the County destroyed evidence, the County or its elected officers may now be subject to, or have, legal claims," wrote attorney Allister Adel.

The audit continues to be chaotic. An elections expert who witnessed the audit earlier this month described ballots whizzing by on conveyor belts and volunteers scrutinizing ballots for bamboo fibers and Cheeto dust. It wasn't even clear who was in charge of media access of the highly-publicized affair on Sunday morning when the Republic's Fifeld attempted to enter the audit facility.

Meanwhile, Georgia's Fulton County is trying to avoid a million-dollar mistake Maricopa may have made. A judge agreed to unseal 147,000 absentee ballots in Fulton County on Friday, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's David Wickert wrote, but made clear the materials should stay in the custody of county officials. In Arizona, the firm Cyber Ninjas took custody of vote-counting machines, which led Secretary of State Katie Hobbs to recommend the machines be replaced before the next election. There's no way to guarantee the machines were not tampered with, Hobbs wrote, and replacing them could cost the county millions.

Down the Ballot

FOXES AND HENHOUSES Republicans who tried to overturn the 2020 election in key battlegrounds are running to oversee elections in their states. "The campaigns set up the possibility that politicians who have taken steps to undermine faith in the American democratic system could soon be the ones running it," POLITICO's Zach Montellaro reported. Politicians have launched campaigns in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Michigan. The actual power secretaries of state hold ranges from state to state, but all will have a "megaphone and a media platform" in future election cycles.

RUN THE NUMBERS The number of polling places for voters of color in Texas' major counties would decrease under a bill making its way through the state legislature, the Texas Tribune's Alexa Ura, Chris Essig and Madison Dong reported. The Republican-backed proposal to redistribute polling places passed the state Senate but was removed from the bill that passed the House. Now, lawmakers are hammering out the details in a conference committee. "In most cases, the districts that would lose polling places are represented by people of color and have a far higher share of potential voters of color than the districts that would gain voting sites," according to a Tribune analysis.

YOU'VE GOT MAIL Former Ohio GOP chair Jane Timken's foes are seeking to undermine her Senate campaign in an open letter sent to Donald Trump. The letter was signed by supporters of Josh Mandel, who is running for Senate for a third time, according to POLITICO's Marc Caputo. Critics say Timken tarnished her pro-Trump record when she did not immediately call out Rep. Anthony Gonzalez (R-Ohio), when he voted for impeachment. Timken eventually called on Gonzalez to resign, but her initial move was enough for a group of conservative activists to paint her as "everything that President Trump stood against." The letter was also sent to the NRSC.

Meanwhile, Gonzalez said in a recent virtual forum that embracing Trump is a losing strategy for Republicans in the midterms, NBC News' Henry J. Gomez wrote. Gonzalez also voted in favor of a commission to investigate the Capitol riot. He's drawn two primary challengers — and ire from his state Republican Party — over his resistance to Trump. (The former president has endorsed Republican candidate Max Miller). Ohio will lose a congressional seat in this redistricting cycle, making Gonzalez's political future unclear.

GREEN MOUNTAIN SHUFFLE The Senate's longest-serving member could seek a ninth term next year, according to POLITICO's Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine. Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) has been in the Senate since the 1970s, and is signaling he's likely to run again next year. Since fellow Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is an independent who caucuses with Democrats, Leahy is the only Democrat ever elected to the Senate from Vermont.

Meanwhile, Vermont's very popular GOP Gov. Phil Scott is still considering his plans for 2022, when he's up for reelection. Scott told The Atlantic's Russell Berman he does not have "any interest" in running for the Senate, perhaps because Scott doesn't believe a Republican could win in the deep-blue state. Scott's caveat: "You never close the door on anything."

GETTING IN Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee is facing a primary challenge from the Democratic secretary of state. Nellie Gorbea is the first candidate to formally announce a campaign against McKee, WPRI's Ted Nesi reported. It seems Gorbea didn't intend to make her campaign public Sunday night, as "Gorbea's revamped website was put behind a password less than an hour after 12 News revealed it." McKee is the former lieutenant governor who took over in March when now-Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo joined the Biden administration. Dr. Luis Daniel Muñoz, who ran as an independent in 2018, has said he's running as a Democrat. Other candidates expected to jump in are state Treasurer Seth Magaziner and Providence Mayor Jorge Elorza.

NOTABLE FLOATABLES Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) could face a challenge from Republican state House Speaker David Ralston, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Patricia Murphy, Greg Bluestein and Tia Mitchell report. Warnock, who won a tight runoff against former Sen. Kelly Loeffler at the beginning of the year, hasn't yet drawn a major Republican challenger. Ralston highlighted his Washington meeting with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and NRSC head Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) last week, but hasn't made a commitment to run.

OPPO RESEARCH Anthony Bouchard, one of eight Republicans challenging Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) next year, announced on Friday that he had impregnated a 14-year-old girl when he was 18. The admission was an attempt to get ahead of a news story, the Casper Star Tribune's Victoria Eavis reported . Bouchard shared the information in a 13-minute Facebook video, and the story appeared a short time later in the U.K. tabloid Daily Mail. Of the Republicans challenging Cheney, Bouchard has been the top fundraiser.

BALLOT BLOCKADE Red-state Republicans are seeking to squash recent success by Democrats to implement liberal policies via ballot proposals. Republicans in 32 states have introduced 144 bills to restrict ballot initiatives processes, The New York Times' Reid J. Epstein and Nick Corasaniti, and nine governors have signed 19 of those bills into law. One notable restriction: South Dakota Republicans passed a law requiring ballot initiative petitions be size 14 font at a minimum, and fit on one piece of paper. The result "will force people gathering signatures for petitions to tote around large pieces of paper, including some that unfold to the size of a beach towel."

STAFF SHAKEUP The NRCC's Mike Thom is moving from battleground director to political director. Thom, who has been leading the committee's redistricting efforts this cycle, has been with the NRCC for three election cycles and previously served in deputy and regional political director roles. The committee's most recent political director, Justin Richards, will serve as an NRCC adviser. POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt has more (for Campaign Pro subscribers).

Ex-Republican Kurt Bardella is advising the DCCC months after he left the Lincoln Project, a Republican PAC opposed to Trump, Fox News' David Rutz reports. Bardella was a senior adviser to the Lincoln Project until the group had a high-profile meltdown, and previously worked for several Republican lawmakers.

THE CASH DASH New Mexico Democrat Melanie Stansbury pulled in nearly $100,000 in donations from House lawmakers, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Roll Call's Stephanie Akin reports. Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, Democratic Caucus chair Hakeem Jeffries and DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney all pitched in to Stansbury's campaign.

A Republican hasn't held the seat vacated by Rep. Deb Haaland (D-N.M.) since 2009, but the donations are a sign Democrats take the race seriously. Stansbury significantly outraised Republican candidate Mark Moores in the six weeks leading up to the election, we reported last week.

THE PROCESS (CONT.) Elections officials in Wisconsin turned up only 27 cases of potential voter fraud out of the 3.3 million ballots cast last fall, and no charges have been filed against voters, The Associated Press' Scott Bauer reported. More than half of the cases, which were released through a records request, originated in one city where "16 people had registered with their mailing address at a UPS store, rather than their residence as required by law."

 

HAPPENING TUESDAY - A PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW WITH ADAM KINZINGER: From the ousting of Liz Cheney from her leadership position to the looming death of a bipartisan commission to investigate the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol, Donald Trump appears to be winning the internal GOP battle over the party's future. Join Playbook co-authors Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels for an interview with a leading member of the Trump opposition, Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), to discuss his efforts to change the party's direction -- and whether that is even possible. Register here to watch live.

 
 
Presidential Big Board

GHOSTED Donald Trump is still the Republican party's biggest star. But the former president's online engagement has dropped by 95 percent since January, according to The Washington Post's Drew Harwell and Josh Dawsey . The drop makes sense — Trump was banned from major social platforms following the Jan. 6 Capitol riot — and his new blog has underwhelmed even his advisers.

Still, Trump is the central Republican figure ahead of the 2022 midterms. Candidates in a number of Republican primaries are courting his endorsement, and the ex-president's plans for 2024 have sparked disagreement among potential candidates. Even if Trump soon gets hit with criminal charges, it's unlikely to hurt his base, USA TODAY's David Jackson reports.

CODA QUOTE OF THE DAY "There are no saints in redistricting. Everyone is a sinner." — former Georgia Gov. Roy Barnes to WXIA-TV. (h/t Greg Giroux).

 

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