We Did it: Virginia gubernatorial primaries hit the homestretch — Dems locked out of TX-06 special runoff — Redistricting lawsuits kick started with pandemic-delayed census

May 03, 2021

Editor's Note: Weekly Score is a weekly version of POLITICO Pro's daily Campaigns policy newsletter, Morning Score. POLITICO Pro is a policy intelligence platform that combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.

Quick Fix

— Virginia Republicans will pick their gubernatorial nominee at an "unassembled convention" next weekend, while Democrats have about a month to go until their primary.

— Democrats were boxed out of the special election for a vacant House seat in Texas that had moved toward Democrats throughout former President Donald Trump's administration, with Republicans Susan Wright and state Rep. Jake Ellzey advancing to the runoff.

— A pandemic-delayed census is kicking off a new cycle of redistricting lawsuits, which will look different from what has been litigated over the last decade.

Good Monday morning. Email me at zmontellaro@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com, amutnick@politico.com and smurray@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @JamesArkin, @allymutnick and @stephanie_murr.

Days until the Virginia GOP firehouse primary: 5

Days until the NM-01 special election: 29

Days until the New Jersey and Virginia primaries: 36

Days until the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections and OH-11 and OH-15 special elections: 183

Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 554

Days until the 2024 election: 1,283

TopLine

Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, right, gestures during a news conference with current Gov. Ralph Northam, left.

Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe is the frontrunner in the Democratic primary for his old job. | Steve Helber/AP Photo

OLD DOMINION — Two primaries diverged in a yellow wood … or something like that. We're in the final sprint for both of Virginia's gubernatorial nominating contests. But in just about every way, down to the process of how the nominees will be selected, the races have been very different.

We'll start with the GOP first. Republicans have seven candidates to choose from, four of whom have generally been considered top tier-ish: Businessmen Glenn Youngkin and Pete Snyder, state Sen. Amanda Chase and former state House Speaker Kirk Cox. The nominating process is complicated (more on that in a moment), but it is a ranked-choice contest with no absolute frontrunner. Candidates are now jockeying to become voters' second choice, The Washington Post's Laura Vozzella reported. ( Pros can read more on RCV campaigning in a Score from last week.) The race has also been animated, in part, by claims of "election integrity" — a wink and nod toward Trump's lies about his loss, which Chase has embraced outright — the AP's Matthew Barakat wrote last month. Now, that has been complicated by the party's convoluted nominating process, as demonstrated in recent reporting from NBC News' Alex Seitz-Wald on how the party brushed past its own ID requirements for some delegates.

As for how the winner will be nominated: There is an "unassembled convention" on Saturday to select Republican gubernatorial (and lieutenant governor and attorney general) candidates, which is a party-run process. It is sort of like a firehouse primary, with a few key differences: Voters had to pre-register ahead of time as delegates (the state party said about 54,000 did so), it is a ranked-choice vote, and people's votes are weighted based on how many "delegates" each county has been awarded. State party chair Rich Anderson explained the process in an interview with Virginia Scope's Brandon Jarvis if you're interested in a deeper dive. The ballot counting won't start until Sunday, and Anderson said he hoped to have results on Tuesday, but that "longest-case scenario" would be Thursday. How the party actually arrived at this process has been a tortured ordeal, with months of infighting.

And on to the Democrats. Five Democrats are running for governor, with one frontrunner: former Gov. Terry McAuliffe. The Macker has led the few public polls and the fundraising battle by healthy margins, in a field that also includes former state Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy, state Sen. Jennifer McClellan, Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax and state Del. Lee Carter. Nobody has really been able to step up to the former governor. POLITICO's Maya King on the race: "The washout is evidence that, thus far, Democratic primary voters in Virginia have prioritized pragmatism over racial representation. McAuliffe has maintained relationships with top Democrats since leaving office four years ago and holds the support of the commonwealth's most influential Black leaders." Carroll Foy, who has been the second-best at fundraising, has argued that she is best positioned to knock McAuliffe off his perch, but time is running short.

This process is much simpler: There will be a state-run, first-past-the-post primary on June 8. Early voting started on April 23, and team McAuliffe has worked to consolidate support. He has the endorsement of the lion's share of state Democratic legislators who have weighed in, outgoing Gov. Ralph Northam, The Washington Post editorial board , and some labor endorsements, including a new one landing this morning: Unite HERE Local 23. Carroll Foy, who also has some labor and progressive groups in her corner, scored the backing of EMILY's List two weeks ago, and hopes to ride that to a burst of last-minute fundraising and support. The next big date on the calendar is this Thursday, which is the second gubernatorial debate. Nobody really went after McAuliffe in the first debate, an eye-popping broadside from Fairfax aside (Pros can read our recap), so it is worth watching to see if that changes.

JOIN TUESDAY FOR A CONVERSATION ON SMALL BUSINESSES AFTER COVID-19: About one in six small businesses in the U.S. closed their doors since the pandemic began. The ones that remained open are getting by with fewer employees after laying off workers or a hiring freeze. What is ahead for small businesses in 2021 as they try to weather the ongoing economic uncertainty? And how does President Biden's $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package intend to support small-business owners? Join POLITICO for a virtual conversation with White House economic adviser Jared Bernstein and Joyce Beatty, chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, on what small businesses need to survive and thrive beyond the Covid economic crisis. REGISTER HERE.

Down the Ballot

JUST SPECIAL — Wright and Ellzey advanced to a yet-to-be-determined runoff for the open seat in TX-06, locking Democrats out and guaranteeing Republicans hold on to the seat left empty when the late GOP Rep. Ron Wright died. Susan Wright, the late congressman's widow, took the first spot in the runoff and was endorsed by Trump, while Ellzey narrowly edged out Democrat Jana Lynne Sanchez, who conceded on Sunday, for the second spot. The race attracted almost no outside spending, save for the Club for Growth, which spent against Ellzey. It is a black eye for Democrats to miss out on a runoff spot in a district Trump only carried by 3 points in 2020, but the DCCC and most national Democratic groups also didn't get involved, so — paging the silver linings department — they didn't spend resources in a district that'll be redrawn soon anyway. POLITICO Campaigns' Ally Mutnick has more on the race.

— And results from the two Texas races we included in our mayoral races to watch last month: San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg, a progressive independent, "coast[ed]" to a third term with a "dominating win," per San Antonio Report's Jackie Wang. And in Fort Worth, Republican Mattie Parker and Democrat Deborah Peoples are headed to a June 5 runoff, per the Fort Worth Star-Telegram's Luke Ranker.

COUNTING HEADS — We're a week removed from the release of apportionment numbers, and the legal battles are underway. Your favorite Score author has a table-setting story for what will be a particularly litigious redistricting cycle, a process that is usually swamped with lawsuits. This (and the next few) years' worth of lawsuits will look different, both because there are suits seeking to litigate when and how data will be released, and significant rulings from the Supreme court have changed the grounds on which post-redraw lawsuits will be fought on.

NOTABLE FLOATABLES — An expected candidate launch: Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.) is expected to kick off his gubernatorial comeback bid this week, POLITICO's Marc Caputo and Matt Dixon reported. (I got an email on Sunday advising a "major announcement" from Crist in his hometown of St. Petersburg on Tuesday.) But Crist would enter the race as "a likely underdog in what could be a crowded field." Crist, who won the office in 2006 as a Republican, was the Democratic Party's nominee in 2014 and lost to now-Sen. Rick Scott.

— Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pa.) is getting close to a Senate run, telling donors and supporters that he is likely to enter the open-seat race, POLITICO's Sarah Ferris and James Arkin reported. Any timeline for an announcement remains unclear, the duo reported. A statement from his campaign manager Abby Nassif-Murphy acknowledged that he was considering a run, but said "no decision has been made."

Meanwhile, the man that Lamb beat in 2020 is considering a Senate run of his own: Pennsylvania Republican Sean Parnell. Parnell, a Trump family favorite who narrowly lost that 2020 House race to Lamb, is moving toward a Senate run, James reported. He recently met with Republican senators including Scott, who chairs the NRSC.

THE HOUSE MAP — Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), the party's immediate past House campaign chief who represents a district Trump carried, announced she will not seek reelection in 2022. Her retirement kicks off some immediate redistricting considerations, POLITICO's Nicholas Wu, Sarah and Ally write. Illinois is going to lose one of its 18 House districts, so Democrats (who control the process in the state) could scoop off some blue-leaning pockets in Bustos' district and feed them to sophomore Democratic Rep. Lauren Underwood's district to make it more blue. Democrats are also hoping to squeeze three downstate Republicans into two Republican-friendly seats, forcing one of them out. A Democratic name to watch from Ally, in Bustos' district: Beth Jensen, a member of the Peoria City Council, who is considering a run.

Bustos is the third House Democrat to announce their retirement, without seeking another office, joining two others who have represented battleground-ish districts: Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick (Ariz.) and Filemón Vela (Texas).

— Republican Alek Skarlatos, a veteran best known for helping to stop a terrorist attack on a Paris-bound train in 2015, announced that he would again challenge Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) after narrowly losing to the longtime lawmaker in 2020. Skarlatos filed paperwork with the FEC on Friday and announced a rematch on "Fox & Friends Weekend", asserting that redistricting will help him out.

LANDMARK LEGISLATION? — Senate Democrats have committed to fight for H.R. 1 (117), the sweeping voting rights package that has already passed the House. But many in the conference "say they have no idea how to pass it and wonder what exactly the end game is for a signature Democratic priority," POLITICO's Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine report. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) still has not signed and, and Manchin and others oppose changing the filibuster as well, giving no clear path for the bill to become law.

— Manchin also knocked down the idea of D.C. statehood being passed by a bill through Congress, saying in an interview with MetroNews' Hoppy Kercheval that it needs to be done via a constitutional amendment. "If Congress wants to make D.C. a state, it should propose a constitutional amendment," Manchin said in the interview, citing research from the Department of Justice. "It should propose a constitutional amendment and let the people of America vote."

RECALL TIME — The California Democratic Party had one thing on its mind during its weekend convention: showering "effusive praise" on Gov. Gavin Newsom as he fights against the effort to recall him, the Los Angeles Times' Seema Mehta reported. The convention came days after state election officials said the recall effort had submitted enough valid signatures to make the ballot. Vice President Kamala Harris spoke at the virtual convention, saying of Newsom that "President Joe Biden and I support him 100 percent."

THE PROCESS — The suspect "audit" of all the ballots of Arizona's largest county ordered by the Republican-controlled state Senate could stretch well beyond its original estimated end date of May 14, the Arizona Republic's Taylor Seely reported. Former Republican Secretary of State Ken Bennett, who is serving as a spokesperson for the audit, said there was "no deadline" for the audit of the Maricopa County ballots. The Republic's story goes more into the major outstanding questions over who is funding the audit.

THE GOVERNATORS — Rep. Lee Zeldin's (R-N.Y.) gubernatorial campaign said he has been backed by enough county GOP chairs to secure the party's designation, POLITICO New York's Bill Mahoney reported. That is not the same as winning the nomination: "Any Republican who secures 25 percent of the weighted vote at a convention would automatically receive a spot on a primary ballot, and others would be able to gather petitions for a primary challenge."

— The Michigan Republican Party is out with a new digital ad campaign going after Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer over coronavirus restrictions, asserting she and members of her administration did not follow them. It is backed by a five-figure spend.

FIRST IN SCORE — OLD DOMINION (CONTINUED) — We're headed downballot in Virginia: Democratic Del. Jay Jones, who is primarying state Attorney General Mark Herring, is out with his third TV ad, which features Northam praising him. "Virginians are excited that Jay Jones is gonna be the next attorney general," Northam says in the ad, praising the work the two men did together to end the death penalty in the state.

— Late anti-gay messages have roiled the Virginia Republican lieutenant governor's primary. The Washington Post's Antonio Olivo and Laura Vozzella reported that "former delegate Timothy D. Hugo showed Del. Glenn R. Davis Jr. wearing a rainbow-striped shirt, highlighting several causes Hugo argued were not Republican — including protecting members of the LGBTQ community from discrimination." Hugo's campaign defended the mailer, but condemned an anonymous text message that was sent last week that said Davis was "a gay Democrat," saying it didn't come from them.

TRUMP'S PARTY — Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) avoided a censure from the Utah Republican Party at its convention over the weekend, but was "lustily booed" by convention-goers when he took the stage to speak, The Salt Lake Tribune's Bryan Schott and Tony Semerad reported. "Aren't you embarrassed?" the GOP's most recent non-Trump presidential nominee asked the crowd. "You can boo all you like. But I've been a Republican all of my life. My dad was the governor of Michigan … And if you don't recall, I was the Republican nominee for president in 2012." (Here's a video from the Tribune.)

— Lin Wood, the election conspiracy theorist attorney, is trying to defeat the Trump-endorsed South Carolina state Republican Party chair Drew McKissick and the race has turned into a madhouse, POLITICO's Marc Caputo wrote.

— Fealty to Trump's election lies has become a litmus test throughout the Republican Party, The Washington Post's Ashley Parker and Marianna Sotomayor wrote, with Republicans who don't back them facing censure or electoral threats.

GREATEST CITY IN THE WORLD — Scott Stringer, a progressive Democrat, is pushing on with his campaign for New York City mayor after a former volunteer accused him of sexual assault, which he denies, POLITICO New York's Erin Durkin reported. "In the midst of a crisis, when you feel you're being knocked down, you come to the church. I've had some knock-down this week myself. But what's really important is how you get up and solve the problem," Stringer said on Sunday at the Evening Star Baptist Church in Bedford-Stuyvesant. High profile supporters continue to bail from his campaign, including the Working Families Party and a group of progressive lawmakers, per POLITICO New York's Sally Goldenberg.

— Andrew Yang, the current Democratic frontrunner for New York mayor, roots his biography in his entrepreneurial background. Two stories over the weekend dug into that background: The New York Times' Brian Rosenthal and Katie Glueck wrote how Yang's nonprofit Venture for America had "a yawning gap between his bold promises and the results of his efforts." And POLITICO New York's Joe Anuta wrote how many of Yang's early business ventures were created by someone else. For both stories, Yang's campaign defended his business record and that of Venture for America. "It's clear Andrew's story — and passion for helping people — is resonating with New Yorkers," spokesperson Alyssa Cass said in a statement to POLITICO New York.

CONSULTANTS' CORNER — Clemencia Herrera is joining the Democratic media firm Three Point Media as a partner. She previously founded her own firm, Moira Studio.

SUBSCRIBE TO "THE RECAST" TODAY: Power is shifting in Washington and in communities across the country. More people are demanding a seat at the table, insisting that politics is personal and not all policy is equitable. The Recast is a twice-weekly newsletter that explores the changing power dynamics in Washington and breaks down how race and identity are recasting politics and policy in America. Get fresh insights, scoops and dispatches on this crucial intersection from across the country and hear critical new voices that challenge business as usual. Don't miss out, SUBSCRIBE . Thank you to our sponsor, Intel.

Presidential Big Board

2024 ALREADY? — Former Vice President Mike Pence is kicking off a fundraising swing, POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reported, joining those laying early groundwork for potential 2024 runs. But broadly, POLITICO's Meridith McGraw wrote, Trumpworld has met Pence's 2024 maneuvering with a shrug.

— South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem "is trying to cement her place as the only female Trump ally echoing the former president's trigger-the-left approach among the upper tiers of potential 2024 candidate," The New York Times' Jonathan Martin wrote in a profile of her.

CODA — RETRACTION OF THE DAY: "Newsmax Apologizes for False Claims of Vote-Rigging by a Dominion Employee" — from The New York Times (and here is the Newsmax statement).

Follow us on Twitter