Monday, May 10, 2021

What we know about the Virginia GOP nominating process so far — Republicans close to landing a Whitmer challenger — Warren: I’m running for third term in 2024

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May 10, 2021 View in browser
 
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By Zach Montellaro

Presented by All* Above All

Editor's Note: Weekly Score is a weekly version of POLITICO Pro's daily Campaigns policy newsletter, Morning Score. POLITICO Pro is a policy intelligence platform that combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.

Quick Fix

— About 30,000 Virginia Republicans cast ballots in an "unassembled convention" on Saturday to pick their gubernatorial nominee. Those ballots will be tallied today.

— Michigan Republicans have struggled to land a challenger to Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. But now, the police chief in Detroit is preparing to launch a bid.

— Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) told POLITICO she plans on running for reelection in 2024, potentially postponing what could be a contentious open primary in the Bay State.

Good Monday morning. Email me at zmontellaro@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com, amutnick@politico.com and smurray@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @JamesArkin, @allymutnick and @stephanie_murr.

Days until the NM-01 special election: 22

Days until the New Jersey and Virginia primaries: 29

Days until the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections and OH-11 and OH-15 special elections: 176

Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 547

Days until the 2024 election: 1,276

 

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The Hyde Amendment denies people working to make ends meet, especially people of color, the ability to make their own decisions about their health and futures. We believe in a world where abortion is affordable and available for all. That's why President Biden must keep his promise and end the Hyde Amendment. Access to abortion care is a racial and economic justice priority!

 
TopLine

Pete Snyder gestures as he talks to delegates during the opening of the Virginia Republican convention.

Pete Snyder is one of the seven Republicans vying for the party's gubernatorial nomination in Virginia. | Steve Helber/AP Photo

OLD DOMINION — Republicans' firehouse primary was on Saturday, when people in the state went to 39 sites across the commonwealth to cast a ballot to pick their gubernatorial, lieutenant governor and attorney general nominees. The general consensus is that four Republicans separated themselves from the seven-person field, and are in contention to win the nomination: businessmen Pete Snyder and Glenn Youngkin, former state House Speaker Kirk Cox and state Sen. Amanda Chase. (If you missed my story from Friday on how "election integrity," an unmistakable response to former President Donald Trump's lies about the last election, joined the pantheon of conservative issues in this primary, check it out here.)

But we still await results for the top-of-the-ticket race. Vote counting began on Sunday, at a central site in Richmond, where a team is tallying the ballots by hand. Given that it is a ranked-choice ballot, with votes weighted based on county and independent city, that's no easy task. The counting kicked off at the bottom of the ballot with the AG race. The start of the counting was delayed a bit on Sunday after a housekeeper at the hotel where the ballots are being tallied entered the ballroom to set up drinks, The Washington Post's Laura Vozzella reported, breaking the tamper-proof tape and triggering an investigation from party officials and some of the campaigns. For the AG nod, state Del. Jason Miyares beat out Chuck Smith in the third round in a closer-than-expected race. Timing-wise, the first round of counting took about three-and-a-half hours, and about 90 minutes to two hours for subsequent rounds.

Of the roughly 54,000 people who pre-registered to vote in the convention, about 30,000 showed up to vote, the party said. (About 366,000 people voted in the 2017 Republican gubernatorial primary, which was state-run.) Hope springs eternal before the ballots are tallied, as is the case with all elections, with multiple gubernatorial candidates declaring how confident they were once voting had closed on Saturday. But Chase, a self-styled "Trump in heels" who wholeheartedly embraces Trump's election falsehoods, has continued to make noise about running as an independent. "If RPV steals this election for Pete [Snyder] I still have plenty of time to run as an independent," she tweeted after polls closed on Saturday. "Clear corruption by RPV, I will not honor a pledge if the Party cannot run a fair process."

The gubernatorial race will be tallied starting today at 9 a.m., with the lieutenant governor race coming after that. We will, of course, keep you posted with the latest developments of the race. But if you fancy watching people hover around a table counting ballots, the state party has a livestream of the proceedings. The state party has a live spreadsheet up and running tracking the proceedings, and the Virginia Public Access Project has a nice page visualizing the weighted results that's much more readable. While we're talking Virginia, a non-comprehensive list of reporters to follow for this year's gubernatorial election (besides us, of course): The Post's Vozzella, the Richmond Times-Dispatch's Mel Leonor and Virginia Scope's Brandon Jarvis.

 

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Down the Ballot

THE GOVERNATORS — Republicans have struggled thus far to draft a challenger to Whitmer in Michigan, which is likely to be one of the premiere gubernatorial contests in 2022. But that could change soon: Detroit Police Chief James Craig, a Republican, is preparing a campaign, POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reported, having spoken with GOP leaders in the state and Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey, the chair of the RGA. The Detroit News' George Hunter, Nolan Finley and Christine Ferretti reported that Craig is expected to announce his retirement today, effective June 1, and Craig did not deny that he plans on running to The Detroit News. Other candidates considering a run include Tudor Dixon, a conservative pundit, and 2018 and 2020 Senate nominee John James.

— Rep. David Trone (D-Md.) announced he was running for reelection in 2022 instead of joining the open gubernatorial race, per The Baltimore Sun's Pamela Wood. Trone, the wealthy co-founder of Total Wine, could have brought significant self-funding to a bid (as he did when he first won his congressional seat.)

NEVER TOO EARLY — Warren plans on running for reelection in 2024, she said in an interview with POLITICO's Alex Thompson. Massachusetts Democrats have been speculating about the possibility of a contentious primary in the deep blue state, should Warren not run, with names including Rep. Ayanna Pressley and former Rep. Joe Kennedy III bandied about.

REPUBLICAN TEN-SION — House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy publicly blessed the effort to oust Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) from the No. 3 spot in House Republican leadership, as the party gives her the boot for repeatedly pushing back against Trump's lies about the election. McCarthy told Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures" host Maria Bartiromo that he supported Rep. Elise Stefanik's (R-N.Y.) bid to replace Cheney. (Stefanik, like McCarthy, voted to overturn the election results in January.) The AP's Hope Yen has more.

— Ohio's state Republican Party passed resolutions censuring GOP Rep. Anthony Gonzalez and calling for him to resign, The Cleveland Plain Dealer's Jeremy Pelzer reported, after he voted to impeach Trump in January. (Several of the GOP candidates for the open Senate seat took the vote as an opportunity to take potshots at Gonzalez.)

— California Rep. David Valadao, another one of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach, is set to be a "special guest" for a fundraiser for Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.), another impeachment backer, per The Sacramento Bee's David Lightman. A Newhouse spokesperson told The Bee that the fundraiser had nothing to do with the vote, but was because the two men knew each other well and are "part of the small group of representatives who actually operate working farms."

 

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HE'S RUNNING? — Is Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) going to run for reelection next year? The octogenarian senator said he'll deliberate until the fall, and POLITICO's Burgess Everett traveled Iowa with Grassley as he makes up his mind. "If Grassley does seek reelection, Republicans and many Democrats concede the seat is essentially safe. If he doesn't, the GOP's road to the majority gets that much harder. … Raw electoral politics aside, there's a more delicate topic. He would be 95 at the end of an eighth term. He's currently one of three 87-year-olds in the Senate and the second-eldest overall."

— Jumping into the Wisconsin Senate Democratic primary: Radiologist Gillian Battino, who the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Bill Glauber wrote is "the longest of long shots."

JUST SPECIAL — New Mexico state Rep. Melanie Stansbury, a Democrat, Republican state Sen. Mark Moores and two other candidates in the special election in NM-01 participated in a debate on Sunday night. Moores went after Stansbury as "a 'radical' on environmental, immigration and criminal justice" issues, the Albuquerque Journal's Dan Boyd wrote, while she attacked Moores over "his vote during this year's 60-day legislative session against a bill repealing a long-dormant state abortion ban."

— Stansbury is also out with a new TV ad saying she "delivered the tools we need to fight violent crime," while hitting Moores for "oppos[ing] President Biden's American Rescue Plan."

 

A message from All* Above All:

No one should be denied abortion coverage because of how much money they earn or the type of health insurance they have. The Hyde Amendment is a massive barrier to abortion care, which is exacerbated by systemic racism, economic insecurity, and immigration status. President Biden must act to make abortion available and affordable for all. Ending the Hyde Amendment is a racial and economic justice priority!

 

(NO) ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Not a huge surprise, but President Joe Biden is unlikely to weigh in on the open Senate primaries. "Historically, President Biden has rarely endorsed in Democratic primaries," White House Deputy Chief of Staff Jen O'Malley Dillon told The Washington Post's Sean Sullivan in a story about how different wings of the Democratic Party are preparing for battle in swing state Senate primaries. "That's also the practice that most presidents have had, and it's a safe bet that will continue." (O'Malley Dillon said he would, however, support incumbent Democratic senators who are being primaried.)

— A good example of a looming fight between progressives and moderates: the race to challenge Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). POLITICO Florida's Gary Fineout from the Sunshine State, where moderate Rep. Stephanie Murphy and progressive former state attorney Aramis Ayala are both eyeing bids: "Democrats have agonized over whether they should back candidates who energize younger voters with progressive issues or support centrist Democrats who could appeal to independent and moderate Republicans. Add to this the issue of race, with many Florida Democrats wanting candidates who reflect its diverse ranks."

THE PROCESS — The Texas state House, which is controlled by Republicans, passed a "pared down" version of a bill that would introduce new voting restrictions on Friday, The Texas Tribune's Alexa Ura wrote. The bill heads back to the state Senate, where it will " likely go to a conference committee made up of members of both chambers who will be able to pull from both iterations of the legislation in crafting the final version largely outside public view."

— The "audit" in Arizona is dropping plans to go door-to-door contacting voters in Maricopa County. The Arizona Republic's Andrew Oxford : "The decision, which [Republican state] Senate President Karen Fann included in a letter to the U.S. Department of Justice on Friday, comes after federal officials raised concerns that the canvassing could violate civil rights laws aimed to prevent voter intimidation." Maricopa County Sheriff Paul Penzone also blasted the audit's request to take certain routers from the county as "mind-numbingly reckless and irresponsible," the Republic's Jen Fifield reported.

OPEN SEAT SCRAMBLE — Rep. Charlie Crist's (D-Fla.) decision to run for governor is starting a domino effect. Democratic state Rep. Ben Diamond is set to announce a bid for Crist's Pinellas County House seat today, Gary writes in from Tallahassee. Diamond was set to lead state House Democrats in the 2022-2024 legislative session.

AMERICA'S MAYORS — Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, a close Biden ally, detailed her surprise decision to not seek a second term in a Friday press conference. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Wilborn Nobles III, J.D. Capelouto and Ben Brasch : "Bottoms said Friday that being mayor is her highest honor, and that faith guided her decision to leave office in January 2022. She said she doesn't know what's next for her, and denied rumors she or her husband have taken a job in the private sector that would force them to move out of state." Bottoms, who did not rule out a run for elected office in the future, offered to refund donors who gave to her presumed reelection bid. (Biden previously hosted a fundraiser for her.)

— Jean Kim, a New York City lobbyist, and her fiancé Tony Caifano sat for interviews with Gothamist's Elizabeth Kim and The New York Times' Katie Glueck further detailing her allegations of sexual assault against Scott Stringer, one of the leading Democrats seeking the city's mayoral office. Caifano said that Kim told her about the alleged assault in 2014, while Stringer has denied them, saying the two had a consensual relationship. POLITICO New York's Erin Durkin also reported how a few high-profile supporters of Stringer are sticking with him.

 

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CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I don't consider myself a charming person." — Grassley, to POLITICO.

 

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