We Did it: GOP could split red-state cities in redistricting — New York mix-up roils ranked-choice advocates — Millennials set their sights on the Senate

Jul 06, 2021

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Quick Fix

— Republicans may crack red-state cities like Nashville to gain an edge in redistricting, but some members of the party are calling for a more cautious approach.

— Ranked-choice voting proponents hope a snafu in the New York City mayoral race won't cause a "black eye" for the electoral system.

— Ambitious politicians under 40 are running for the Senate, a chamber whose members are known to stick around far past retirement age.

Good Tuesday morning. Email me at smurray@politico.com and follow me on Twitter at @stephanie_murr.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, zmontellaro@politico.com, amutnick@politico.com and jarkin@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @ZachMontellaro, @allymutnick and @JamesArkin.

Days until the TX-06 special election runoff: 21

Days until the OH-11 and OH-15 special election primaries: 28

Days until the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections and OH-11 and OH-15 special elections: 119

Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 490

Days until the 2024 election: 1,219

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TopLine

TO SPLIT OR NOT TO SPLIT — Republicans are weighing whether to crack red-state cities like Nashville, Louisville and Kansas City when they redraw congressional districts over the next year. Splitting up Democrat-heavy cities could give the GOP an opportunity to reclaim the House majority, but some Republicans are warning the districts may not remain red over time, POLITICO's Ally Mutnick reported.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is among the Republicans urging Kentucky map-drawers to play it safe and leave Rep. John Yarmuth 's (D-Ky.) Louisville-based district alone. The Republican supermajority in the state could split the city into three districts and seize control of all six congressional seats.

In Nashville, there's a better chance that Rep. Jim Cooper's district could get carved up. Meanwhile, Reps. Sharice Davids (D-Kansas) and Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) could see their Kansas City-based districts sliced into parts. Omaha, Neb., could also get drawn into several districts, which could be boon for Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.).

There are pitfalls to carving up cities in redistricting. The new districts could violate some federal and state laws, for example. And demographic shifts over the next decade can be difficult to predict.

"The political environment of the Trump era has become increasingly volatile, making it harder to gauge how certain regions will perform in 2022. Deep red seats in the suburbs have quickly transformed into Democratic turf and some typically blue seats, especially Latino-majority districts, have moved toward the GOP equally as quickly," Ally wrote.

Down the Ballot

THE BIG APPLE — Election officials are hoping the ranked-choice voting snafu in the New York City mayoral race won't sour voters in other parts of the country on the electoral system, POLITICO's Maya King and Zach Montellaro wrote . In more than a dozen interviews, ranked-choice voting proponents pointed out the mistake in New York — failing to delete test ballots from the tallying system — could have happened in an election that didn't use ranked-choice voting. Two states and 53 jurisdictions use ranked-choice voting, according to the nonprofit FairVote.

— The next update from the city Board of Elections will come later today.

40 UNDER 40 — A wave of candidates in their 30s are running for the Senate, attempting to bring some younger energy to an otherwise geriatric chamber, POLITICO's James Arkin wrote. Just in the past week, 36-year-old Democrat Charles Booker launched a bid for Senate in Kentucky, while 36-year-old J.D. Vance announced he will run for Senate in Ohio. Plenty of barriers remain for young candidates, however. "Most face competitive primaries against either more established candidates or fellow up-and-comers, and some would face uphill general election battles if they win nominations," James points out.

GETTING IN — A group of pro-Trump Republicans, including some longshots, used the July 4 holiday weekend to launch bids for governor. Dan Cox launched a campaign for governor of Maryland, Allen West announced his campaign in Texas against incumbent GOP Gov. Greg Abbott, and Geoff Diehl became the first Republican to announce a campaign in Massachusetts. Former Maine Gov. Paul LePage also announced a comeback bid on Monday.

THE CASH DASH — Pennsylvania Democrat Jerry Dickinson raised $211,992 for his congressional campaign in the second quarter of the year. His campaign did not provide a cash-on-hand figure. The filing period covers April 1-June 30. Dickinson is challenging Rep. Mike Doyle (D-Pa.) in a Democratic primary. Reports are due July 15.

THE CONSPIRACY CAUCUS — A third of Republicans who have filed paperwork to run for the House or Senate next year have promoted Trump's baseless claims that the election was stolen, The Washington Post's Amy Gardner wrote. The wave of pro-Trump Republicans has worried Democrats and elections experts who fear if elected, the candidates could meddle with future elections.

THE MAP LINES — Rep. Andy Harris, Maryland's only Republican lawmaker, is in danger of losing his congressional district, The Washington Post's Meagan Flynn and Ovetta Wiggins reported. Harris' district could be drawn to lean more toward Democrats, especially as the party looks to hang onto its slim House majority. Maryland is considered one of the most gerrymandered states in the country. For his part, Harris is fundraising off the redistricting danger.

EXCLUSIVE: ON THE AIRWAVES — Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe released a new digital ad hitting Republican Glenn Youngkin for being endorsed by Trump. The 30-second spot features clips of Youngkin saying he was "honored" to receive the former president's endorsement.

THE PROCESS — Trump's allies sought to stop the ballot count in Arizona after the 2020 election, the Arizona Republic's Yvonne Wingett Sanchez reported. Trump tried to speak directly with the chair of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors in the weeks following the election, according to newly released public records. Supervisor Clint Hickman, a Republican, did not take Trump's call, which occurred around the same time the former president was heard pressuring Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. Meanwhile, state GOP chair Kelli Ward urged county supervisors to "to stop the counting" of ballots in an attempt to delay Trump's loss in Arizona.

— Pennsylvania state Sen. Doug Mastriano briefed Republican lawmakers on bringing an Arizona-style "audit" to his state, The Associated Press' Marc Levy and Mark Scolforov wrote. Mastriano is a Trump ally who is considering running for governor next year. In his push to recount 2020 election ballots, Mastriano also solicited legal advice from Philadelphia lawyer Bruce S. Marks, who did work for Trump after the election, regarding using private money to pay for audit-related consultants and lawyers. The Arizona audit is being funded in part by private donors.

DAY IN COURT — The New Hampshire state Supreme Court tossed the state's voter registration law on Friday, saying the burdens it places on voters violate the state constitution, WMUR's John DiStaso reported. The court ruled the bill, which was written by Republicans, created confusing new requirements and could deter people from registering and casting ballots. The law had created "a new process for people to prove that they are residents of New Hampshire if they registered to vote within 30 days of an election or on Election Day without a photo ID."

POLL POSITION — Abbott holds a slight lead over actor Matthew McConaughey in a hypothetical match-up, according to a Dallas Morning News and University of Texas at Tyler poll released over the weekend. Abbott has support from 39 percent of registered voters, while McConaughey has support from 38 percent of registered voters, the poll found. McConaughey hasn't said whether he will run for governor or even indicated which political party he'd join. Meanwhile, the poll found Abbott would hold a double-digit lead over former Rep. Beto O'Rourke, a Democrat, if he decides to run for governor.

THE GOLDEN STATE — Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) is walking a tightrope in his swing district ahead of the 2022 midterms, the Los Angeles Times' Seema Mehta wrote. And his seat, previously held by former Rep. Katie Hill (D-Calif.), could become even more blue after it is redrawn. California is losing a congressional seat, and many expect the state's redistricting commission could pull Garcia's district into a more liberal area. Garcia has a mixed record — he has pushed to repeal Trump tax breaks, but also voted against certifying the 2020 election results and opposed impeachment.

ENDORSEMENT ALERT — The Cleveland Plain Dealer endorsed OH-11 Democrat Nina Turner in the crowded special election to replace now-HUD Secretary Marcia Fudge. The endorsement took shot at Turner's best-known opponent, Democrat Shontel Brown, who has been endorsed by a number of establishment Democrats.

"There is one person in this crowded field who has shown she isn't afraid to stand up to power and to partisan shibboleths, who has the guts to say what she thinks and do what's right for her constituents and country," the editorial board wrote. "Brown is a pleasant but undistinguished member of Cuyahoga County Council who has little to show for her time in office," the editorial continued. Early voting in the primary begins this week.

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THE KEYSTONE STATE — Vulnerable Reps. Susan Wild (D-Pa.) and Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.) are banking on Biden's infrastructure package for their 2022 reelection bids, NBC's Adam Edelman reported. Because Democrats' majority in the House is so slim, keeping their seats blue will be key in 2022. Wild and Cartwright each won reelection with fewer than 15,000 votes last year, and they are already being targeted by the NRCC this cycle.

— Pennsylvania has never elected a woman to the Senate or the governor's office. Democratic Senate candidate Val Arkoosh could break that streak, The Philadelphia Inquirer's Julia Terruso, but breaking the glass ceiling is not a central talking point for Arkoosh. Instead, she says the race is focused on the economy, climate, health care and other issues.

On the other side of the aisle, more Republican women could run for the House this cycle than ever before, The Wall Street Journal's Gabriel Rubin reports. So far, 127 GOP women say they'll run for Congress, which is more than double the 50 Republican women who had done so at this point in the 2020 cycle. By the time the cycle was over, 227 Republican women sought House nominations in 2020, which was up from 120 in 2018.

Presidential Big Board

TRUMP TRAVEL LOG — Trump held a rally in Sarasota, Fla,. over the weekend, where he railed against Trump Organization indictments, POLITICO Florida's Matt Dixon wrote. The event was the ex-president's second large-scale rally since leaving the White House.

Not everyone agreed with Trump's choice to hold the event while the state deals with a deadly condo collapse in South Florida. An aide to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis asked whether Trump was planning to go ahead with the rally, and a Trump adviser told him there were no plans to reschedule, The New York Times' Annie Karni reported. DeSantis did not attend the rally.

CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY — "Pro-Trump social media app hacked on launch day as half million sign up" — Reuters

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