— Pollsters are still struggling to figure out what went wrong in 2020, as a new report from the leading polling trade organization IDs a number of possible reasons — but no definitive ones — for the historic errors last cycle. — House Republicans embraced digital fundraising, and their second-quarter FEC reports show they've caught up with cash-flush Democrats as a result. — Former Vice President Mike Pence's chances in the 2024 primary appear slim, as former President Donald Trump's base remains furious at him and evangelicals have plenty of options. Good Monday morning. Steve (sshepard@politico.com, @POLITICO_Steve) wrote today's topline. Thanks, Steve! Email me at smurray@politico.com and follow me on Twitter at @stephanie_murr. Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at zmontellaro@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @ZachMontellaro, @JamesArkin and @allymutnick. Days until the TX-06 special election runoff: 8 Days until the OH-11 and OH-15 special election primaries: 15 Days until the California recall: 57 Days until the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections and OH-11 and OH-15 special elections: 106 Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 477 Days until the 2024 election: 1,206 |
POLLING PROBLEMS — If you were expecting clear answers about why the polls missed again from the American Association for Public Opinion Research's long-anticipated, post-2020 autopsy, think again. Like others in the field, AAPOR's 2020 task force isn't able to identify a definite cause that explains why the polls continued to underestimate now-former President Donald Trump, according to a new report out overnight. Instead, it has ruled out a repeat of some 2016 culprits — like late-deciders flocking to Trump in large numbers, or failing to weight by education — and identified a couple of "prime suspects" that could be responsible. But because the most-likely reasons the polls missed center around people who won't respond to polls — a term known as non-response bias — it's impossible to know for sure. "It seems plausible to the task force that, perhaps, the Republicans who are participating in our polls are different from those who are supporting Republican candidates who aren't participating in our polls," task force chair Josh Clinton, a Vanderbilt University professor, told POLITICO last week in advance of the report's release. "But how do you prove that?" Polling has been changing rapidly for more than a decade, since cell phones became ubiquitous, and the majority of Americans abandoned their landlines. But this report, along with a Democratic review of their internal polling released this spring, shows pollsters still haven't figured out the right formula for getting it right. |
THE CASH DASH — House Republicans have gained ground on Democrats in the money race, POLITICO's Ally Mutnick reported. According to FEC filings from the second quarter, at least 49 Democrats and 43 Republicans each raised more than $500,000. (The second quarter spanned April 1-June 30). Back in the second quarter of 2019, 50 Democrats reached that $500,000 benchmark but only 30 Republicans did. "Another sign of GOP momentum: The National Republican Congressional Committee has lapped the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in fundraising, outraising the DCCC by $8 million in the first six months of 2021. At this point in the 2020 cycle, House Democrats had outraised Republicans by over $17 million," Ally wrote. But Democrats still have an edge — Incumbents like California Reps. Josh Harder and Katie Porter have a cash-on-hand advantage. One committee fundraising tidbit not in the story: The NRCC beat the DCCC in online fundraising in the first quarter of 2021, $12 million for the GOP to $10.8 million for the Democrats. That was a shocking development seeing that the GOP campaign arm didn't start fully embracing digital fundraising until 2019. But House Democrats turned it around this past quarter, raising $18.2 million online to the NRCC's $14.1 million. — For Campaign Pro subscribers: Don't miss our House FEC chart, which published on Friday, just hours after the deadline. Meanwhile in the Senate, Democrats' second-quarter filings show some good news for their fragile majority. The four most vulnerable Democratic incumbents increased their fundraising pace, POLITICO's James Arkin wrote. "Republicans need to win just one of those seats back to recapture the majority. But they also have to hang on to their own seats. Republicans are defending five states where GOP incumbents retired — Alabama, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania. And two other potential swing-state senators — Sens. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and Chuck Grassley of Iowa — haven't yet said if they're running again, but started to ramp up their fundraising over the past three months." Pros can dive into the numbers here: Senate chart. House chart. EVERYTHING'S BIGGER IN TEXAS — The Texas state lawmakers who fled the state to block an elections bill from passing did so on short notice — one official even postponed her wedding, POLITICO's Zach Montellaro wrote. Since the Democrats left Texas for Washington, their days have been chaotic. The Democrats have pleaded with members of Congress to pass national voting reform bill, and several of the Texas lawmakers have tested positive for Covid-19. Meanwhile, Republicans back home have threatened to arrest the Democrats. FIRST IN SCORE: ENDORSEMENT ALERT — Democrats Serve, a new PAC which supports Democrats with service backgrounds, is endorsing more than a dozen House lawmakers in competitive districts. The PAC is endorsing Reps. Tom O'Halleran (D-Ariz.), Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.), Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Ga.), Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.), Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), Andy Kim (D-N.J.), Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.), Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.), Conor Lamb (D-Pa.), Susan Wild (D-Pa.), Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), Ron Kind (D-Wis.) and Katie Porter (D-Calif.). (RE)CALL ME MAYBE — Forty-one candidates qualified for the California recall ballot, POLITICO California's Mackenzie Mays and Kevin Yamamura reported. That's a lower number than political watchers predicted when the push to oust Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom began months ago. Republicans make up about half of the recall field, and eight Democrats are running in the Sept. 14 contest. But the field of candidates, which will appear on the second question on the ballot, will only matter if a majority votes to recall Newsom on the first question. NOTABLE FLOATABLES — New York Times columnist Nick Kristof is considering a run for governor of Oregon, according to the Willamette Week's Rachel Monahan. Kristof, a two-time Pulitzer winner, told the paper his friends are trying to recruit him to run. A recent poll circulated in Oregon asking voters about "how they would feel about a journalist who grew up on a farm running for office." Already running in the Democratic primary is Yamhill County Commissioner Casey Kulla, while State Treasurer Tobias Read and Multnomah County Chair Deborah Kafoury are among those considering campaigns. Democratic Gov. Kate Brown is term-limited. LANDMARK LEGISLATION? — Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) is shifting the Senate Rules Committee's focus to external matters in an attempt to pass election reform legislation, The New York Times' Carl Hulse wrote. The rules committee is typically in charge of internal Senate matters, but its jurisdiction also includes "federal elections generally, including the election of the president, vice president and members of the Congress." The committee will hold its first field hearing in two decades today in Atlanta. Georgia is among the states which passed Republican-backed election restrictions this year. THE PROCESS — Only four instances of potential voter fraud led to charges in Arizona, and only 182 cases out of the more than 3 million ballots cast in the 2020 election were flagged for review, The Associated Press' Bob Christie and Christina Cassidy . "Arizona's potential cases also illustrate another reality: Voter fraud is often bipartisan. Of the four Arizona cases that have resulted in criminal charges, two involved Democratic voters and two involved Republicans," Christie and Cassidy wrote. The stats contradict Trump's baseless claims that the election was rigged, and come as those running the "audit" in Maricopa County say (falsely) that they found 74,000 uncounted ballots. OLD DOMINION — Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe outraised Republican Glenn Youngkin last month, The Washington Post's Gregory Schneider reports. McAuliffe's campaign raised more than $7.5 million from May 28-June 30, while Youngkin raised $3.6 million. The price tag of the November governors' race could set a record in Virginia. Youngkin, a former private equity executive, is worth an estimated $300 million and already lent his campaign $12 million earlier this year. THE GRANITE STATE — New Hampshire GOP Gov. Chris Sununu hasn't launched a Senate campaign, but he's starting to sound like a candidate. Sununu criticized Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan during a breakfast with reporters in rural New Hampshire, the Washington Examiner's David Drucker wrote. Asked about his case for unseating Hassan, Sununu replied, "What's the case for her?" MONEY MOVES — Illinois Republicans running for governor are packing their war chests to take on billionaire Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker, The Chicago Tribune's Rick Pearson reports. Pritzker isn't officially running for another term, but he gave his campaign $35 million in March. State Sen. Darren Bailey was the top fundraiser in the Republican primary, according to second-quarter campaign filings. Bailey raised $165,000, spent $185,000 and has $490,700 in cash on hand. DAY IN COURT — A federal judge scolded a pair of Colorado lawyers who filed a lawsuit claiming the 2020 election was stolen. The case was dismissed in the spring, but the judge may discipline the lawyers for filing a frivolous claim, which is against the rules of the court, The Washington Post's Rosalind Helderman wrote. Federal Magistrate Judge N. Reid Neureiter asked the lawyers, Gary D. Fielder and Ernest John Walker, if they had considered whether Trump was using them as a "propaganda tool" during a hearing. |
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