Monday, July 26, 2021

Trump’s Texas test — The voting laws Dems are worried about — Turner, Brown battle on TV

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By Stephanie Murray

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Quick Fix

— Tuesday's TX-06 runoff will test the power of Donald Trump's post-presidential endorsement in a race that isn't restricted to Republican voters.

— Democrats are sounding the alarm that new Republican-backed voting restrictions could make it more difficult to win in the 2022 midterms.

— The ad war between OH-11 Democrats Shontel Brown and Nina Turner continues ahead of next week's special election primary.

Good Monday morning. Email me at smurray@politico.com and follow me on Twitter at @stephanie_murr.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, zmontellaro@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @ZachMontellaro, @JamesArkin and @allymutnick.

Days until the TX-06 special election runoff: 1

Days until the OH-11 and OH-15 special election primaries: 8

Days until the California recall: 50

Days until the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections and OH-11 and OH-15 special elections: 99

Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 470

Days until the 2024 election: 1,202

 

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TopLine

Susan Wright holds a campaign sign.

Former President Donald Trump endorsed Republican Susan Wright in the TX-06 runoff. | Facebook/ Susan Wright for Congress

EVERYTHING'S BIGGER IN TEXAS — The power of Trump's endorsement is on the line in Texas on Tuesday, when Republicans Susan Wright and Jake Ellzey go head-to-head in the TX-06 runoff. Wright, the widow of the late Rep. Ron Wright, has Trump's endorsement. But Ellzey has outspent her and has the backing of other prominent Texans, POLITICO's Marissa Martinez wrote.

Trump has taken some last-minute steps to boost Wright. His Make America Great Again Action PAC made a $100,000 ad buy for Wright, the Dallas Morning News' Gromer Jeffers Jr. noted. Trump will also hold a tele-rally tonight, the Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek reported. And the former president recorded a robo-call that Wright touted online. "Hello, this is your hopefully all-time favorite president, Donald Trump," he says in the call. "I'm asking you to go out and vote for a great Republican, a great woman, Susan Wright."

The big question will be who turns out to vote on Tuesday for a Republican-on-Republican race in the middle of the summer. It's not clear whether Democrats will head to the polls when a member of their party is not on the ballot. But if they do, they could cast ballots for Ellzey because he doesn't have Trump's backing. Wright has released several internal polls that show her in the lead.

Tuesday's election will be one of the first races where Trump endorsed after leaving the White House, and could provide some insight into whether his base takes his advice. Trump's endorsement will be tested again next week in the OH-15 special election primary, where the former president endorsed Republican Mike Carey. But some of Trump's closest allies are supporting other Republicans in that race.

Down the Ballot

BALLOT BATTLE — Democrats fear that new state-level election restrictions passed by Republicans will have an outsized impact on the midterms, POLITICO's Maya King, David Siders and Daniel Lippman wrote. Groups are only beginning to model midterm turnout, so the impact of the new laws is not yet clear. But the more than three dozen operatives who spoke with POLITICO say they're worried about the impact of the new laws, which were passed in 18 states.

"If there isn't a way for us to repeat what happened in November 2020, we're f---ed," said Nsé Ufot, CEO of the Stacey Abrams-founded New Georgia Project. GOP Gov. Brian Kemp signed new election restrictions in March. "We are doing what we do to make sure that not only our constituents, our base, the people, the communities that we organize with, get it. We're trying to make sure that our elected officials get it as well."

JUST PEACHY — As he weighs launching a campaign for Senate in Georgia, public records could hurt football star Herschel Walker's future bid, according to The Associated Press' Brian Slodysko, Bill Barrow and Jake Bleiberg. Trump encouraged Walker to run, and the ex-NFL player has teased his entrance into the race. But Walker's past history is making some Republicans wary about putting an untested candidate up against Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, in what will be one of the most expensive and contentious races of the midterms.

"The documents detail accusations that Walker repeatedly threatened his ex-wife's life, exaggerated claims of financial success and alarmed business associates with unpredictable behavior," Barrow and Beliberg wrote. Walker has been open about being diagnosed with dissociative identity disorder, and wrote about it in his book "Breaking Free."

ON THE AIRWAVES — OH-11 Democrat Shontel Brown is up with a new TV ad criticizing fellow Democrat Nina Turner for running negative ads against her. "Turner's attacks on Shontel Brown? Simply false. Turner has a history of attacking and lying about Democrats," a narrator says over black-and-white footage of Turner.

— Illinois Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker is running a pair of new coronavirus-focused television ads a week after announcing his reelection campaign. In one 30-second spot, Pritzker praises a member of the Illinois National Guard, on which the governor called to set up vaccination sites during the height of the pandemic. In another ad, Pritzker highlights a nurse and talks about how he provided protective equipment and Covid-19 testing kits for health care workers.

OLD DOMINION — President Joe Biden stumped for former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe in Arlington on Friday, and made an effort to tie Republican nominee Glenn Youngkin to Trump. Biden and McAuliffe told a crowd of 3,000 on Friday that the November governors' race is neck-and-neck, POLITICO's Chris Cadelago and Zach Montellaro wrote. Biden won Virginia by 10 points in 2020, but the race for governor is expected to be closer. Virginia's off-year election is seen as an early test of the president's popularity, and voters often choose the opposite party from the one in power.

THE MAP LINES — Maryland state lawmakers could hold a special legislative session the week of Dec. 6 to draw new congressional maps, Maryland Matters' Bruce DePuyt wrote. The state has two redistricting commissions that are holding hearings around the state for input on the new districts. Maryland holds its primaries at the end of June. Similarly, Colorado holds its primaries on June 28. But if that state does not submit new maps by the end of 2021, the Colorado Sun's Thy Vo reports, it would have to push the primaries to a later date, the Secretary of State told the state Supreme Court in a brief last week.

— Speaking of the redistricting delay, it's causing anxiety for Democrats in Florida, POLITICO Florida's Matt Dixon wrote. The party lost a pair of Miami-based congressional seats in 2020 and is eager to win them back this cycle. But Democrats don't yet have candidates to take on Republican Reps. Carlos Giménez and María Salazar. Former Rep. Donna Shalala (D-Fla.) is waiting to see how the map lines look before deciding whether to run for her old seat, and the field is frozen as a result.

THE EMPIRE STATE — New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo changed his tune on an investigation into claims of misconduct against him, POLITICO New York's Anna Gronewold reports. When Cuomo was initially accused of wrongdoing, he directed state Attorney General Tish James to investigate, and promised the probe would clear his name. But now Cuomo's aides are saying James, a fellow Democrat, is using the investigation to launch her own campaign for governor. The comments even led the head of a separate legislative impeachment investigation to reprimand Cuomo. The three-term governor hasn't announced a reelection campaign yet.

ENDORSEMENT ALERT — The California state Republican Party created a pathway to endorse a single Republican running in the Sept. 14 recall, POLITICO California's Jeremy White wrote. Some conservatives had argued that the party shouldn't endorse just one of the two-dozen GOP candidates running to replace Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom. The party will hold a virtual meeting Aug. 7 to vote on an endorsement. Sixty percent of delegates must vote for the endorsement, so it's possible the party could still vote not to endorse.

— Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) will endorse former Rep. Matt Salmon (R-Ariz.) for governor today. Schweikert is a member of the Freedom Caucus, and Salmon was a founding member. Salmon is running to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Doug Ducey.

THE KEYSTONE STATE — Pennsylvania Republicans are worried about their 2022 prospects, especially when it comes to the race for governor, The Philadelphia Inquirer's Jonathan Tamari wrote. Likely Republican candidate Bill McSwain, for example, got into a dispute with former Attorney General Bill Barr that made donors and operatives question his political instincts. Party insiders suspect state Sen. Doug Mastriano would turn off general election voters, and they question former Rep. Lou Barletta's ability to run a winning campaign after his 2018 Senate loss. Speaking of the Senate, Republicans are also concerned after Democratic candidates outraised their Republican counterparts in the second quarter of the year in the race to replace retiring Sen. Pat Toomey.

THE PALMETTO STATE — First-term Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) was a loud critic of Trump for baselessly claiming the election was stolen during her early weeks in Congress. Facing pressure from her pro-Trump base at home, however, Mace has pivoted, The New York Times' Catie Edmondson reports. "After setting herself apart from her party during her first week in office by opposing its effort to overturn President Biden's victory, Ms. Mace has swung back into line," by voting to oust Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) from leadership and opposing an independent bipartisan commission to investigate Jan. 6. Mace represents a swing district and narrowly beat Joe Cunningham in 2020.

 

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Presidential Big Board

TRUMP TRAVEL LOG — The Arizona "audit" of 2020 ballots was a central focus during Trump's rally in Phoenix over the weekend. The former president repeated his false claims that the election was stolen during his appearance, POLITICO's Brianna Crummy reported. Maricopa County is conducting the most closely watched election "audit" in the country, and Trump allies are trying to export the process to other states.

Arizona's race for governor also played out at the rally. Former conservative commentator Kari Lake received the warmest reception at the event, the Arizona Republic's Mary Jo Pitzl reported. The other Republican primary candidates who appeared were state Treasurer Kimberly Yee, businessperson Steve Gaynor and Salmon. Less lucky was secretary of state candidate Michelle Ugenti-Rita, a Republican state senator. Ugenti-Rita does not support the ongoing "audit" and was booed off stage by the pro-Trump crowd.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY — "I am the butt-kicker in chief, not the butt-kisser. And if there's anybody out there that doesn't like that, sorry, not sorry." — Arizona state GOP chair Kelli Ward, per the Arizona Republic.

 

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