We Did it: Everything’s bigger in Texas

Sep 20, 2021

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Quick Fix

— Texas lawmakers will begin the once-in-a-decade process of redrawing the state's political maps today, while the still-forming race for governor looms.

— The 2020 election was nearly a year ago, but baseless Republican claims that the process was rigged are growing in states across the country.

— Terry McAuliffe and Glenn Youngkin are locked in a tight race six weeks out from the Virginia gubernatorial election.

Good Monday morning. Email me at smurray@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @stephanie_murr.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, zmontellaro@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @ZachMontellaro and @allymutnick.

Days until the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections, the OH-11 and OH-15 special elections and the FL-20 special primary: 43

Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 414

Days until the 2024 election: 1,142

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TopLine

The Texas Capitol is pictured. | Getty Images

Texas will officially begin its redistricting process today. | Montinique Monroe/Getty Images

EVERYTHING'S BIGGER IN TEXAS — The redistricting cycle in Texas officially begins today. Lawmakers will gather for a special session in Austin to redraw the state's political maps, including the state's two new congressional districts. The process will almost surely benefit Republicans, who control the process.

Redistricting will be the latest partisan battle in the Lone Star State, which has prompted national debates over voting rights, abortion and the Covid-19 pandemic over the last several months. People of color fueled Texas' population growth over the last decade, and Democratic groups are already preparing to fight the new map lines in court. Lawmakers released an early draft of the state Senate map that would beef up Republicans' majority in the chamber, the Texas Tribune's Rebekah Allen and James Barragán reported. The new map released Friday "includes 19 senate districts where Trump voters outnumbered Biden voters — up from 16 districts currently."

At the same time, attention is on the still-forming race for governor in Texas. Former Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) has been calling political allies for advice and leaving them with the impression he'll challenge GOP Gov. Greg Abbott, Axios reported over the weekend, in the latest round of speculation that the former Senate and presidential candidate will take a run at the governors' office.

Speaking of Abbott, his moves on conservative issues, like the state's controversial new abortion law, have left his approval rating underwater and allowed potential Democratic opponents to gain ground, according to a new poll from The Dallas Morning News and University of Texas at Tyler.

Fifty-four percent of Texans said the state was on the wrong track, according to the poll, and only 45 percent approve of Abbott's job performance, The Dallas Morning News' Todd J. Gillman and Emily Caldwell wrote. Abbott's 12-point lead in a hypothetical match-up against O'Rourke shrunk to 5 points in the survey of 1,148 registered voters, conducted Sept. 7-14. The survey was even better for actor and potential candidate Matthew McConaughey, who leads the governor by 9 percentage points in a hypothetical (and perhaps fanciful) matchup.

Abbott has shored up his right flank in recent months. Abbott's primary challengers, former state Sen. Don Huffines and former state Republican Party chair Allen West, have struggled to gain traction in the contest. "In head-to-head matches, Abbott leads Huffines 70-15 and he tops West 65-20," according to the poll.

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Down the Ballot

2020 VISION — Republicans are using former President Donald Trump's claim that the 2020 election was stolen as a rallying cry and already undermining confidence in future elections, David Siders and Zach Montellaro reported. Republicans like Nevada Senate candidate Adam Laxalt and Pennsylvania gubernatorial hopeful Lou Barletta have cast doubt on the 2022 election, and California recall candidate Larry Elder raised voter fraud suspicions during his campaign.

Claiming the election was rigged may be popular to Trump's base, but it could be a costly strategy for Republicans. The claims depressed GOP turnout in this year's Georgia Senate runoffs, for example. "An erosion in GOP voter confidence in election integrity could once again persuade some of them to stay home in competitive House and Senate races next year — and in the presidential race in 2024 — with nothing less than the balance of power in Washington at risk," David and Zach wrote.

OLD DOMINION — McAuliffe and Glenn Youngkin are in a tight race six weeks before Election Day, according to a new Washington Post/Schar School poll, POLITICO's Myah Ward wrote. The survey found McAuliffe had 50 percent of support among likely voters, and Youngkin had 47 percent. The poll was conducted Sept. 7-13 and surveyed 728 likely voters.

— In more Virginia news, McAuliffe is up with a new ad highlighting Youngkin's stances on masks and Covid-19 vaccines. The pair sparred over pandemic policies during their debate last week.

EXCLUSIVE: LEADING THE PARTY — A group that aims to help young candidates in swing districts is launching the new Organize for Democracy Collective and plans to register at least 2 million voters and commit $1 million to candidates during the 2022 midterm cycle. The Next 50 PAC, a left-leaning group which supports "pro-democracy" candidates under the age of 50, also plans to mobilize 450,000 volunteers. The new collective includes groups like Mi Familia Vota, NAACP and March On's Future Coalition.

ENDORSEMENT ALERT — The Democratic Governors Association will endorse New York Gov. Kathy Hochul today. The group is backing the new governor for a full term, after she took the reins following the resignation of former Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

GETTING IN — Former Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) is running for governor, he says in a new campaign video . Heller plans to launch a campaign for governor today in Carson City and will join a crowded race to take on Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak. Heller criticized the governor's positions on mask mandates, defunding the police and pandemic lockdowns in his launch video.

— Ohio Republican Matt Dolan will launch a campaign for Senate today, The Columbus Dispatch's Haley BeMiller reported. Dolan, a moderate, will be the sixth major candidate to enter the Republican primary to replace retiring Sen. Rob Portman. Dolan is a state senator, and his family owns Cleveland's baseball team.

PAC ATTACK — No Better Friend Corp. will kick off a $1.5 million ad blitz in Wisconsin tonight with a minute-long ad during the Green Bay Packers' "Monday Night Football" game against the Detroit Lions. The group, founded by Republican businessperson and Marine veteran Kevin Nicholson, will air ads "aimed at encouraging Wisconsinites to get actively involved in solving the societal challenges that we currently face." Nicholson, who finished second in the 2018 Senate primary, is considering running for Senate or governor.

— Pennsylvania GOP Senate candidate Sean Parnell is getting hit by attack ads from a super PAC which supports another Republican candidate, POLITICO's Scott Bland wrote. The pro-Jeff Bartos "Jobs for Our Future" super PAC made a six-figure TV and digital ad buy hitting Parnell. A 60-second ad which aired Saturday, during the Penn State University football game against Auburn University, featured comments Parnell made about women and referenced protective orders Parnell's wife sought against him in 2017 and 2018.

— The second-place finisher in New Jersey's Republican primary for governor launched a new super PAC, POLITICO New Jersey's Matt Friedman wrote (for Pros). Pastor Phil Rizzo, a far-right candidate who lost to GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, will use the Jersey Rising super PAC to support candidates with similar ideological views.

NOTABLE FLOATABLES — New York Republican Marc Molinaro filed to run against Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-N.Y.) and could announce a campaign this week, Spectrum News' Luke Parsnow reported. Molinaro, who serves as Dutchess County executive, was the GOP nominee for governor in 2018.

TRUMP CARD — Trump is looking for a challenger to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, The Wall Street Journal's Michael Bender and Lindsay Wise wrote, but even the former president's top allies are reluctant to oust McConnell from leadership. McConnell has split with Trump on issues like the 2020 election and infrastructure, but their biggest electoral difference has been over Senate candidates. Trump did not confirm whether he was recruiting a McConnell challenger but said Republicans "ought to" kick him out of leadership.

— Speaking of Trump, he endorsed two incumbent lawmakers: Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) and Rep. Diana Harshbarger (R-Tenn.), for reelection over the weekend.

EXIT ROW — News that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez (R-Ohio) will retire instead of face a Trump-backed challenger in a primary has demoralized Republican moderates, POLITICO's David Siders, Olivia Beavers and Ally Mutnick wrote. The matchup between Gonzalez and Republican Max Miller could have been one of the clearest tests of Trump's post-presidential power in the 2022 midterms. Gonzalez is the first of the 10 House Republicans who voted for Trump's impeachment to announce retirement.

PRIMARY SOURCES — Colorado Republicans will hold primary elections next year, after the state party rejected a push to opt out of primaries, The Colorado Sun's Jesse Paul reported. If the party had nixed primaries, it would have blocked the state's 1.7 million unaffiliated voters from participating in the party's nomination process, and may have violated state law.

THE PROCESS — The results of a partisan 2020 election review in Arizona's Maricopa County are expected Friday, the Arizona Republic reports, after the "audit" stretched on for months longer than planned. Cyber Ninjas CEO Doug Logan will present the findings, along with audit spokesman and fundraiser Randy Pullen and Shiva Ayyadurai, who has pushed election conspiracy theories and conducted a review of signatures on mail-in ballot envelopes.

— Meanwhile in Pennsylvania, Democrats filed a lawsuit to block Republicans from subpoenaing voter records as part of a 2020 election review in the state, The Philadelphia Inquirer's Jonathan Lai wrote. The lawsuit alleges the subpoena is unconstitutional because it steps "on the courts' power to investigate and rule on election disputes and on the executive branch's power, given specifically to the state auditor general, to audit how elections are run."

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THE EMPIRE STATE — Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.), who is running for governor, was diagnosed with leukemia last year, The New York Times' Maggie Haberman reported. Zeldin, who has been receiving treatment, shared news of his illness during an Ontario County Republican Party dinner last week. Zeldin said his diagnosis would not impact his run for governor. He faces Republican Andrew Giuliani in the primary.

THE MAP LINES — Republicans and Democrats are feuding over Oregon's new political maps, The Oregonian's Hillary Borrud and Mark Friesen wrote. State lawmakers are expected to vote on new district lines today, where Democrats have supermajorities in both chambers. Republicans in the state House are united against the proposed maps and could file an appeal to the state Supreme Court, (or in the case of the congressional map, a panel selected by the court's top justice) if Democrats pass them. Oregon will gain a congressional seat this cycle.

JUST PEACHY — Georgia Democrat Stacey Abrams does not have to hand over records from her 2018 campaign, a Fulton County judge ruled on Thursday, because a subpoena issued by the state ethics commission was too broad. Abrams has already given records to the commission, after being accused of illegally coordinating with groups during her bid for governor, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's James Salzer reported. Abrams is expected to run against GOP Gov. Brian Kemp next year.

— The former leader of the state Republican Party is demanding the state party repay him for legal fees linked to a racial discrimination complaint from a former staffer, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein wrote. "John Padgett wants the state party to pay him more than $230,000 for legal costs he said he incurred related to the lawsuit filed by Qiana Keith, a former Georgia GOP staffer who claimed her co-workers had referred to her with a racial slur and humiliated her," according to Bluestein. The party has racked up $1 million in legal fees and other costs to settle the complaint.

CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY — "Philly DA Larry Krasner won't debate his Republican challenger, calling it 'a waste of time'" — Philadelphia Inquirer

A message from PREMION:

When it comes to winning campaigns, every impression counts

According to eMarketer, 83 percent of U.S. households are projected to be CTV households this year. And political marketers are following their audiences and are embracing CTV as an essential channel for reaching voters.

With growing demand for premium CTV inventory, political consultants and buyers must plan early and understand the myriad of CTV buying options for running effective campaigns to reach engaged voters.

Our new white paper helps political marketers navigate the increasingly fragmented and complex streaming TV marketplace and provides insights for effective planning, buying and measurement of CTV advertising.

Download our complimentary white paper, A Marketer's Guide: The New Rules Ahead for Streaming TV Advertising here.