Tuesday, September 7, 2021

Hot redistricting autumn

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By Stephanie Murray

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Quick Fix

— Redistricting is getting into full swing now that states have the Census data to redraw political maps, and Colorado just put out a plan for its new congressional district.

— Republicans are embracing forensic audits of the 2020 election as the "audit" in Arizona comes to an end.

— If former President Donald Trump follows through on his flirtation with another campaign, he'd be the first president since Grover Cleveland to run against the person who beat him.

Good Tuesday morning. Your Score host moved to Washington over the weekend, and is in need of restaurant recommendations. Email me at smurray@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @stephanie_murr.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, zmontellaro@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @ZachMontellaro and @allymutnick.

Days until the California recall: 7

Days until the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections, the OH-11 and OH-15 special elections and the FL-20 special primary: 56

Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 427

Days until the 2024 election: 1,155

 

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TopLine

Rep. Lauren Boebert waits for the beginning of a news conference.

Colorado's proposed congressional map would put Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Colo.) and Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) in the same congressional district. | Alex Wong/Getty Images

THE MAP LINES — Now that we're past Labor Day, the once-a-decade redistricting process is kicking into gear. States are releasing proposed congressional districts and grappling with condensed timelines to draw political maps. Plus, the Census Bureau will release its easy-to-use version of the 2020 data needed to redraw political maps earlier than expected — on Sept. 16. ( POLITICO's Steve Shepard has more on that for Pros).

The biggest headline is Colorado, where the state's independent redistricting commission released a new proposed map that would put Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Colo.) and Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) in the same congressional district. Neguse seized on a potential match-up against Boebert to raise campaign cash over the weekend, but Boebert can easily shift to a safer seat since members don't need to live in the district they're running to represent. The Colorado Sun's Thy Vo and Sandra Fish have a rundown of the proposed map, which is the first of three drafts from the commission. The group begins a new round of public hearings today.

Virginia's bipartisan redistricting commission released draft maps and hired two sets of lawyers to prevent either party from having an advantage. Now, the commission may hire a mathematician to help assess whether districts are fairly drawn, according to The Washington Post's Steve Thompson. Moon Duchin is a math professor at Tufts University who has been involved in redistricting issues since 2016.

Ohio, which typically holds its primary elections in March, is facing a serious time crunch to redraw congressional and state legislative districts. The state's redistricting commission missed a key deadline last week for state legislative maps, WKSU's Jo Ingles reports. The watchdog group Fair Districts Coalition is criticizing the Ohio Redistricting Commission for moving too slowly.

Texas has hardly begun redrawing its political maps, but the process was already hit with a lawsuit. Two Democratic state lawmakers claim the state legislature is unable to draw state legislative maps in a special session, the Texas Tribune's Alexa Ura wrote. The lawsuit cites the state constitution, which says the state legislature shall redraw the maps in a "regular session." Because of the delay in census data, lawmakers intend to draw the maps during a special session this fall. The suit does not challenge lawmakers' authority to draw congressional maps this fall. Texas will gain two congressional seats this cycle.

Meanwhile, Michigan's new independent redistricting commission will try to end the practice of packing Black voters into oddly-shaped districts in the Detroit area. Packing the state legislative districts can dilute the power of the voting group, the Detroit Free Press' Clara Hendrickson reported. The commission hired political scientist Lisa Handley to analyze racial voting patterns in the state, and she found districts in Detroit have "far more Black voters than needed to serve as an effective district compliant with the Voting Rights Act."

And in Oregon, state lawmakers on either side of the aisle revealed proposals for the state's new sixth congressional district, and they were quite different, Oregon Public Broadcasting's Dirk VanderHart wrote. Democrats would like to anchor the district in Washington County and the Salem region, two areas where population grew rapidly over the past decade. Republicans, on the other hand, suggest drawing the seat around Portland's southern suburbs to create a more competitive district. Lawmakers will hold a dozen redistricting hearings over the next several weeks.

 

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Down the Ballot

THE PROCESS — The 2020 election "audit" in Arizona's Maricopa County is wrapping up, but Republicans in key states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are moving toward their own election reviews, POLITICO's Zach Montellaro wrote. "There is no mechanism to actually overturn the certified results of the 2020 election," but the audits could promote Trump's baseless claims that the contest was rigged.

Btw, the Arizona state Senate hired election conspiracy theorist Shiva Ayyadurai to review voter signatures on mail-in ballots, the Arizona Republic's Robert Anglen and Jen Fifield wrote. Ayyadurai has also been hired by Cyber Ninjas, the firm "auditing" Maricopa County's election, to review images of the 2.1 million ballots. Ayyadurai ran for Senate twice in Massachusetts. Plus, newly-released documents show Pennsylvania GOP Senate candidate Jim Lamon has been a key behind-the-scenes player in the audit, the Republic's Yvonne Wingett Sanchez reported.

EVERYTHING'S BIGGER IN TEXAS — Two lawsuits were filed Friday against Texas officials following last Tuesday's passage of a GOP elections bill that opponents say would heavily restrict voting rights in the state, POLITICO's Marissa Martinez writes in to Score. In one suit against the acting Secretary of State Jose Esparza, Gov. Greg Abbott, state Attorney General Ken Paxton and two other officials, the civil rights groups who filed the suit claim the bill adds restrictions that would "burden the First Amendment rights of community organizations" in their attempts to engage with voters — particularly those with disabilities and with limited English proficiency.

The second filing came from the Harris County elections administrator — who is being sued herself in the first suit — and other community-based organizations. It names Abbott, Paxton, Esparza and the Medina County elections administrator. They claim SB1's provisions target those who need assistance to vote, enable partisan poll watchers to intimidate voters and restrict strategies that boosted turnout during the 2020 presidential election.

POLL POSITION — North Carolina Democrat Cheri Beasley leads Jeff Jackson in a head-to-head primary matchup, although more than half of voters are unsure whether they hold a favorable or unfavorable view of either candidate, according to a new survey from Public Policy Polling . Beasley, the former chief justice of the state Supreme Court, had 33 percent of support among likely primary voters, while Jackson, a state senator, had 24 percent of support. Forty-three percent of voters said they are undecided. The poll surveyed 700 likely Democratic primary voters Aug. 31-Sept. 1.

(RE)CALL ME MAYBE — Vice President Kamala Harris will hit the campaign trail for California Gov. Gavin Newsom ahead of the Sept. 14 recall, POLITICO's David Siders wrote. Harris will appear with Newsom in the San Francisco Bay Area on Wednesday. Harris canceled an August campaign swing after a terrorist attack in Afghanistan killed 13 U.S. service members.

Ahead of the recall, bookmark this helpful guide to the Sept. 14 election from POLITICO's Nick Niedzwiadek for a rundown of who is on the ballot, where Newsom's approval rating stands and what makes this year different from the 2003 recall.

PRIMARY SCHOOL — Democrats are flocking to Senate primaries in battleground states, an unusual trend that could complicate the party's attempt to grow its slim majority, NBC's Alex Seitz-Wald and Henry Gomez wrote. In Wisconsin, 10 Democrats are running to take on Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who hasn't said whether he will seek another term. Primary races are also heating up in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Ohio.

THE SILVER STATE — Nevada Republican Adam Laxalt is using Democrats' $3.5 trillion spending plan to paint Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nevada) as a "socialist," while the incumbent is seeking distance from her party's left flank, The Wall Street Journal's Eliza Collins wrote. Meanwhile, the state Democratic Party has been taken over by officials supported by the Democratic Socialists of America, and more Nevada voters than ever are unaffiliated with any political party.

ENDORSEMENT ALERT — Trump endorsed Georgia Republicans Herschel Walker and Burt Jones, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Maya Prabhu wrote. Walker is running for Senate, and Jones is running for lieutenant governor.

ON THE AIRWAVES — Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe is up with a negative ad focused on Republican nominee Glenn Youngkin's position on Covid-19 policies. The 30-second spot also ties Youngkin to Trump's pandemic response.

GETTING OUT — Arizona Democrat Randy Friese ended his campaign for Congress. He cited the Delta variant as a reason for quitting the race to succeed retiring Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.). Friese, a doctor, said in a statement that he is "not ready" to give up treating patients in the hospital.

MONEY MOVES — Left-leaning political data firm Grassroots Analytics is investing $100,000 to promote campaign staff diversity, the group announced. The funds will go toward a program to match staffers to campaign finance opportunities across the country. "The program prioritizes BIPOC, LGBTQ+, people with disabilities, and other applicants from historically marginalized backgrounds," and provides a $1,000 moving stipend.

YOU'VE GOT MAIL — California could see permanent, all-mail elections if Newsom signs a bill headed to his desk, POLITICO California's Jeremy White reported (for Pros). "Last year, Newsom signed into law a bill making the 2020 election an all-mail affair, and Newsom signed legislation this year doing the same for the recall election," Jeremy points out.

THE LAND OF 10,000 LAKES — Ousted Minnesota state GOP chair Jennifer Carnahan wants to return to politics, she wrote on Facebook. Carnahan floated running for governor, or for chair of the state party, Bring Me The News' Declan Desmond reported. Carnahan resigned after her political ally, Tony Lazzaro, was arrested for child sex trafficking.

ICYMI — Here are a few quick campaign clips to catch you up after Score's end-of-summer break. So much for August being a slow news month.

New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof is reaching out to campaign consulting firms and advisers ahead of a possible run for Oregon governor, POLITICO's Christopher Cadelago and Zach Montellaro reported. And Oregon state House Speaker Tina Kotek is running for governor as a Democrat, per The Associated Press.

Gail Huff, the wife of former Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) is considering running in the crowded NH-01 GOP primary to take on Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.), according to WMUR's Adam Sexton.

Far right activist Laura Loomer is running against Rep. Daniel Webster (R-Fla.), POLITICO's Marc Caputo wrote (for Pros).

Rep. Karen Bass (D-Calif.) is "seriously considering" running for Los Angeles mayor, LAist's Libby Denkmann reported.

Outgoing New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio is calling allies about a potential run for governor, POLITICO New York's Sally Goldenberg wrote.

Presidential Big Board

I'LL BE BACK — Trump is signaling he is serious about running for president again in 2024, especially after President Joe Biden's approval rating took a hit this summer. Although the ex-president has flirted with presidential campaigns in the past and backed out, allies and advisers say he's likely to run for another term, POLITICO's Meridith McGraw and Marc Caputo reported. Plus, Trump has hired staff in Iowa and is planning a trip to the first-in-the-nation caucus state, is doing national interviews and ramping up his fundraising.

RENTAL ASSISTANCE — Trump's own political operation pays rent to Trump Tower in New York City, The Washington Post's Shayna Jacobs, David A. Fahrenthold, Jonathan O'Connell and Josh Dawsey reported. Make America Great Again PAC paid $37,541.67 per month to rent office space beginning in March, although a person familiar with the PAC said staffers don't regularly use the office space. Trump's PAC also paid the Trump Organization $3,000 per month to rent a retail kiosk in the lobby, which was closed.

CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY — "'My youth is a strength': Members of Gen Z launch campaigns for Congress" — CNN

 

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