We Did it: The end-of-September redistricting rush

Sep 27, 2021

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Quick Fix

— States are bumping up against end-of-September redistricting deadlines — and while some have advanced new political maps, others are gridlocked over how to proceed.

— The GOP-backed Arizona "audit" showed President Joe Biden won the presidential election, but that's not stopping Republicans from pushing for more partisan election reviews to relitigate 2020.

— Democrats are at a stalemate over Biden's agenda in Congress, while the party acknowledges its 2022 midterm success hinges on passing his policy proposals.

Good Monday morning. Email me at smurray@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @stephanie_murr.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, zmontellaro@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @ZachMontellaro and @allymutnick .

Days until the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections, the OH-11 and OH-15 special elections and the FL-20 special primary: 37

Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 408

Days until the 2024 election: 1,136

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TopLine

THE MAP LINES — We've entered the last week of September, meaning states with early redistricting deadlines are racing against the clock to finish their maps. Texas lawmakers are gearing up to release new maps, while Oregon Republicans have frozen the process to protest a congressional map that will benefit Democrats.

Texas: Republicans control the redistricting process in Texas, and lawmakers are finalizing a plan to pack Democrats into three districts centered around major metro areas that saw population growth: Austin, Houston and Dallas. Republicans are limited, however, by the nature of the state's population growth over the past decade, POLITICO's Ally Mutnick reported . The proposed map will likely give "Republicans control of at least two dozen of the state's 38 districts — but it is not expected to significantly reduce Democrats' footprint."

Oregon: Republicans stalled the redistricting process on Saturday, denying state lawmakers the quorum needed to pass new political maps. Democrats offered to make the new congressional maps a bit more even-handed, though they would still likely give the party a 5-1 advantage. The state legislature is running out of time to draw new districts. If lawmakers can't come to an agreement today, the process will be taken over by Secretary of State Shemia Fagan, a Democrat, The Oregonian's Hillary Borrud wrote.

Maine: The state's redistricting commission reached a deal that would move Augusta into the swingy ME-02, the Bangor Daily News' Jessica Piper wrote. The map represents a compromise between Democrats and Republicans, especially since conservatives were able to keep the liberal college town of Waterville out of the 2nd District. The map will head to state lawmakers for approval.

Nebraska: After tense negotiations, state lawmakers advanced political maps on Friday that would keep Rep. Don Bacon's (R-Neb.) home in his congressional district, the Omaha World-Herald's Ryan Hoffman reported. Bacon's NE-02 had been a sticking point in debate over the new congressional maps. Lawmakers face a Sept. 30 deadline to approve a plan.

Colorado: The latest round of political maps released by Colorado's independent redistricting commission could become the state's official political maps, CPR News' Megan Verlee reported. If the commission cannot come to an agreement, the state constitution says a map drawn by nonpartisan staff will be submitted to the state Supreme Court. The draft map that could be sent to the court creates four Democratic seats, three Republican seats and one swing district.

Down the Ballot

THE PROCESS — The results of the partisan 2020 election review in Arizona affirmed Biden's victory in the 2020 election. But Republicans are eager to replicate the Maricopa County "audit" in other states, POLITICO's Zach Montellaro and Meridith McGraw reported. GOP candidates up and down the ballot are calling for more audits, and a September CNN poll showed 78 percent of Republicans say Biden did not win the 2020 election. Fifty-four percent of Republicans believe there is evidence to support that belief.

Former President Donald Trump's push to undermine the 2020 election results "will never be dropped," a Trump aide told Zach and Meridith. "I think he believes it, and number two, it is a rallying point for the base. It's something a lot of his supporters believe in," the aide said, despite the underlying falsehoods.

— Meanwhile in Michigan, Republicans are pledging to increase their poll watching operation, the Detroit Free Press' Paul Egan reported. The state Republican Party held its Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference over the weekend, where Josh Findlay, election integrity director for the RNC, pledged Republicans would also beef up election litigation in future cycles.

One more tidbit from Mackinac Island: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told the crowd there that he hopes Trump runs for president in 2024, per the Detroit News' Craig Mauger.

MIDTERM MESSAGING — The battle in Congress over Biden's agenda could have a major impact on Democrats in the midterms, The New York Times' Jonathan Martin wrote. Progressive and moderate Democrats are feuding over the timing and content of a pair of major bills, while the party acknowledges "the only way Mr. Biden can rebound politically — and the party can retain its tenuous grip on power in the Capitol — is if he and they are able to hold up tangible achievements to voters."

OLD DOMINION — The tight race for governor between Terry McAuliffe and Glenn Youngkin has Virginia Democrats sweating, The Associated Press' Sarah Rankin wrote. Although most polls have shown McAuliffe leading the race, the margins are quite close, and enthusiastic Republican voters are turning out for Youngkin events. Youngkin said he's brought together "Forever-Trumpers and Never-Trumpers," Axios' Sarah Mucha reported. During his interview with Axios, Youngkin acknowledged Biden beat Trump in 2020, but did not say whether he would have voted to certify the election results on Jan. 6 if he were a member of Congress.

— For more on the Virginia election, the Richmond Times-Dispatch's Mel Leonor, Michael Martz and Patrick Wilson have a look at the battle for control of the state House of Delegates. Republicans lost ground in the state legislature during the Trump era, but are hopeful they can capitalize on Biden's sinking approval rating to regain the majority.

GETTING IN — Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) will seek reelection, he announced Friday. Grassley's decision to run in 2022 boosts Republicans' hopes of winning back the Senate majority, POLITICO's Burgess Everett wrote. Former Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D-Iowa) is running against Grassley in 2022. He won reelection to the Senate by 25 points in 2016.

NOTABLE FLOATABLES — Former Pennsylvania state Auditor Eugene DePasquale is preparing a congressional campaign, but the Democrat won't make any announcement until the state's new congressional maps are finalized, the Patriot News' Charles Thompson reported. DePasquale has been raising cash to unseat Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), after losing to him in 2020.

JUST PEACHY — Trump's rally in Georgia on Saturday was largely focused on 2020 election conspiracy theories, and the ex-president knocked GOP Gov. Brian Kemp for refusing to intervene and sway the election last fall, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Patricia Murphy and Greg Bluestein reported. Trump floated Democrat Stacey Abrams as a better choice than Kemp, and gave a shoutout to former Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.), saying, "Are you running for governor, David Perdue? Did I hear you're running for governor?"

ON THE AIRWAVES — Arkansas Republican Sarah Huckabee Sanders is up with a new one-minute ad for her campaign for governor. Huckabee Sanders highlights her father, former Gov. Mike Huckabee, who worked with then-President Bill Clinton during his time in office. Huckabee Sanders also focuses on social issues in the ad, saying, "We don't want our kids living under socialism, cancel culture and big government."

— Speaking of Arkansas, Huckabee Sanders is intentionally nationalizing her bid for office, The Associated Press' Andrew DeMillo wrote. Her campaign fits into a broader trend of statewide elections hinging on national issues in recent years. "It's a sharp contrast with past races for governor in Arkansas, where Republican Gov. Asa Hutchinson campaigned on requiring computer science education in schools," for example.

POLL POSITION — Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly leads state Attorney General Derek Schmidt in a head-to-head matchup, according to a Clarity Campaign Labs poll commissioned by EMILY's List. Kelly, a first-term Democrat, has 47 percent of support from voters, compared to Schmidt, a Republican, who has 44 percent of support. The poll surveyed 810 registered voters Sept. 13-15.

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THE GOLDEN STATE — The race for Los Angeles mayor kicked into gear last week, when Rep. Karen Bass and several other candidates took steps toward launching campaigns, the Los Angeles Times' David Zahniser, Dakota Smith and Benjamin Oreskes wrote. The open-seat race will hinge on major issues like homelessness, law enforcement and the cost of housing.

Bass hasn't launched a campaign yet, but a POLITICO reporter overheard her on a phone call walking out of the House chamber. "I'm going to officially announce a run for mayor," Bass said on the call, per POLITICO's Nicholas Wu.

— Republican Larry Elder lost the California recall, but his political profile grew significantly over the course of the race, POLITICO California's Carla Marinucci wrote. Now, California Republicans must grapple with Elder, who is against raising the minimum wage and supports abortion restrictions, which could drive away moderate voters the way Trump has in the state ahead of the 2022 race for governor.

EVERYTHING'S BIGGER IN TEXAS — Former Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) is raising questions about actor Matthew McConaughey, a fellow Texan who, like O'Rourke, is considering a bid for governor, the Dallas Morning News' Todd Gillman wrote. "He's a really popular figure whose political views have not in any way been fixed. I don't know, for example, who he voted for in the most consequential election since 1864 in this country," O'Rourke said, in reference to the 2020 election, during the Texas Tribune Festival.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY — "Stacey, would you like to take his place? It's OK with me," — Trump, pitching Abrams over Kemp in Georgia, per The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

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