Tuesday, October 12, 2021

Everything we’re watching in Pennsylvania

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Score is your guide to the year-round campaign cycle.
Oct 12, 2021 View in browser
 
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By Stephanie Murray

Quick Fix

— Pennsylvania Democrat Josh Shapiro will make his long-awaited bid for governor official tomorrow, the latest development in perhaps the most consequential 2022 state.

— Despite the intra-party drama over President Joe Biden's agenda in Congress, Democrats on both sides of the debate agree missing the chance to pass the social spending package will doom their midterm chances.

— Trump-endorsed Herschel Walker brought in $3.7 million in the third quarter of 2021, a year ahead of one of the top battleground races of 2022.

Good Tuesday morning. Email me at smurray@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @stephanie_murr.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, zmontellaro@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @ZachMontellaro and @allymutnick.

Days until the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections, the OH-11 and OH-15 special elections and the FL-20 special primary: 21

Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 392

Days until the 2024 election: 1,120

 

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TopLine

STATE OF THE KEYSTONE STATE — Let's start the morning in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, home to races for Senate and governor we'll be watching closely in 2022. The race for governor enters a new phase this week, the Republican Senate primary is in chaos and a new elections law is facing a legal threat.

Shapiro jumps in: Democratic state Attorney General Josh Shapiro is set to launch a campaign for governor on Wednesday, The Associated Press' Marc Levy, Mark Scolforo and Michael Rubinkam reported. Shapiro has cleared the Democratic primary field to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf, who has already endorsed him. The Republican primary field is far more chaotic, drawing a number of potential and declared candidates.

Parnell's problems: Republican Senate candidate Sean Parnell is facing questions about past protection-from-abuse orders sought by his wife, Laurie Parnell. Now, the orders are at the center of a legal dispute between Parnell and his wife. Citing his children's privacy, Parnell sought a gag order to prevent Laurie Parnell from talking publicly about their conflict. Laurie Parnell fired back, The Philadelphia Inquirer's Jonathan Tamari wrote, saying her husband was more interested in protecting his political ambitions than his children. The Trump-endorsed Republican raised $1.1 million in the third quarter of the year.

Sands goes on the air: Speaking of the Senate, Republican Carla Sands put $3 million into her campaign and launched a $1 million ad campaign, the Inquirer recently reported. Sands, the former U.S. ambassador to Denmark in former President Donald Trump's administration, also parted ways with her original campaign consulting team. Trump's endorsement of Parnell — before the latest run of negative headlines — has complicated her path.

Court challenge: Pennsylvania's new law expanding mail-in voting is facing a significant legal threat, and Democrats are sweating, the Inquirer wrote. The law initially had bipartisan support, but now Republicans are suing, saying it violates the state constitution. Democrats had hoped a pair of lawsuits would be tossed out, but a judge instead combined them and allowed them to move forward. If the law loses in court, Wolf is expected to appeal the decision to the left-leaning state Supreme Court. But even a temporary loss could damage the law, Democrats say.

Down the Ballot

MIDTERM MESSAGING — Democrats in Congress disagree on what's inside Biden's social spending plan. But pretty much every member agrees that if they don't pass anything, their chances of keeping the majority will disappear, POLITICO's Sarah Ferris and Marianne LeVine reported.

"With Biden's approval rating slipping, many Democrats across the map privately concede that achieving the president's two major priorities will be crucial as they stare down an all-but-impossible map in the House and no seats to lose in the Senate," Sarah and Marianne wrote. Meanwhile, Republicans are running attack ads in battleground states calling the agenda a "socialist" spending plan.

THE CASH DASH — A few more third quarter fundraising numbers trickled in over the holiday weekend. These reports cover July 1-Sept. 30, and are due to the FEC by Friday.

GA-Sen: Walker raised $3.7 million for his bid against Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein reported.

MO-Sen: Missouri state Attorney General Eric Schmitt, a Republican, raised $646,000 and had $1.1 million in cash on hand, Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin reported.

California House: Democrat Quaye Quartey raised $252,000 for his campaign against Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.).

New York House: Rep. Elise Stefanik raised $1.5 million "through her various committees and the fundraising platform WinRed," the New York Post's Jon Levine reported.

Texas House: Republican Chris Putnam raised $430,000 for his primary bid against Rep. Kay Granger (R-Texas), including $250,000 from the candidate, Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek reported.

THE MAP LINES — None of West Virginia's three House members are ready to retire. But the state is losing a congressional seat in redistricting, creating a very uncomfortable situation as lawmakers in Charleston work to craft the line between the two new districts in a special legislative session that began on Monday, POLITICO's Ally Mutnick wrote. Republican Reps. Carol Miller, David McKinley and Alex Mooney all plan on seeking reelection, and the state lawmakers tasked with drawing the map lines are feeling the pressure. A map that pits McKinley and Mooney against one another in the same district advanced in the state Senate on Monday.

— Virginia's independent redistricting commission may turn its attention to the state's congressional district lines, after missing a deadline to redraw legislative districts. Commissioners bickered in a Monday meeting, The Associated Press' Ben Finley wrote, but can not take official action until the commission meets in person on Thursday. By missing its deadline, the commission handed the task of drawing new legislative maps to the conservative-leaning state Supreme Court.

— Michigan's independent redistricting commission approved 10 draft maps to present to the public in hearings, The Detroit Free Press' Clara Hendrickson and Todd Spangler reported. If enacted, the maps would result in a loss of majority-Black districts and are likely to face public pushback. The congressional draft maps also place several incumbents in the same districts.

FIRST IN SCORE: ON THE AIRWAVES — Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe and Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund released a new TV ad featuring Newport News Sheriff Gabe Morgan. In the 30-second spot, Morgan makes a direct-to-camera appeal that McAuliffe supports law enforcement and knows how to keep the state safe. "He increased our funding, expanded training and always had our backs. In fact, we named him honorary sheriff — first governor in Virginia history," Morgan says. The ad will air beginning this week and is part of Everytown's $1.8 million investment in the Virginia election.

JUST PEACHY — Georgia officials are investigating allegations that Fulton County elections officials shredded 300 voter registration applications, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Ben Brasch . Fulton County Elections Director Richard Barron confirmed he fired two employees on Friday for allegedly destroying applications sometime in the last two weeks. GOP Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger called on the Justice Department to investigate the incident. Republicans have been pushing for a takeover of Fulton County elections using the state's new elections law.

— Speaking of Georgia, former Mayor Kasim Reed is the top fundraiser in the Atlanta mayoral race, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Wilborn P. Nobles III and J.D. Capelouto reported. Reed reported raising $2.8 million, with $900,000 in cash on hand in his Sept. 30 campaign finance report. Meanwhile, City Council President Felicia Moore, who entered the race five months before Reed, has raised $1.1 million over the course of the campaign, and has $460,000 in cash on hand.

ENDORSEMENT ALERT — Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.) endorsed New Hampshire Republican Karoline Leavitt in her bid to unseat Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.), WMUR's John DiStaso reported. Cawthorn is the youngest member of Congress, and would likely pass the title to Leavitt if she is elected. Leavitt is running in a packed GOP primary which includes Gail Huff Brown, the broadcaster and wife of former Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) and 2020 nominee Matt Mowers.

THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT — New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham has raised more than $2.5 million for her reelection bid, she announced. Lujan Grisham has $2.1 million in cash on hand. Also included in Lujan Grisham's fundraising report will be $87,500 in settlement payments over the last six months. A former staffer, James Hallinan, accused Lujan Grisham of sexual mistreatment during a 2018 meeting, which the governor denies. Payments over the last six months bring the settlement to $150,000, Albuquerque Journal's Dan Boyd wrote.

THE BUCKEYE STATE — Ohio Senate candidate Mike Gibbons is facing blowback from Ohio Wesleyan University alumni after filming a campaign ad on campus, The Columbus Dispatch's Haley BeMiller wrote. The ad was criticized as "race-baiting" by some former students, and a university spokesperson said the ad doesn't reflect the school's values. The ad claims Democrats want to replace god with government, takes aim at former NFL quarterback Colin Kaepernick and shows an anti-critical race theory sign.

THANKS, BUT NO THANKS — Maine state Senate President Troy Jackson will not primary Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, despite a "pressure campaign" led by labor unions to lure him into the race. Jackson, a fellow Democrat, said he was disappointed by the Run Troy Run PAC and reiterated his support for Mills, The Maine Monitor's Andrew Howard wrote.

CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY — "Here's Why The Bidens Attended A 'Real Housewives' Star's Wedding" — Forbes

 

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