Monday, October 25, 2021

T-8 days until Election Day

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Score is your guide to the year-round campaign cycle.
Oct 25, 2021 View in browser
 
POLITICO's Weekly Score newsletter logo

By Stephanie Murray

Quick Fix

— We're just over a week away from Election Day in the blockbuster race for Virginia governor. Here's a look at all the key numbers: Polls, early turnout and TV spending.

— It's not just Virginia. One of the Democratic Party's biggest stars hit the campaign trail to boost New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy over the weekend.

— Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) will endorse Georgia Republican Herschel Walker for Senate today, in the latest sign that the party is warming to former President Donald Trump's pick in the Peach State.

Good Monday morning. Email me at smurray@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @stephanie_murr.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, zmontellaro@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @ZachMontellaro and @allymutnick.

Days until the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections, the OH-11 and OH-15 special elections and the FL-20 special primary: 8

Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 379

Days until the 2024 election: 1,107

TopLine

Terry McAuliffe and Glenn Youngkin are pictured.

Polls show former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin tied in the race for governor. | Win McNamee/Getty Images

OLD DOMINION — The race for Virginia governor is in the final stretch. Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe and Glenn Youngkin are neck-and-neck with eight days to go until election day. And if you live in the DMV and feel like your TV has been taken over by the candidates, it's not just you. The pair have spent a combined $51 million on TV ads this cycle.

The race is a dead heat, according to a new poll released this morning. Youngkin and McAuliffe each had 48 percent of support in a survey from the GOP firm Cygnal. Those numbers line up with a Monmouth University survey released last week. Cygnal surveyed 816 likely general election voters Oct. 19-21. Compared to a February poll, the political environment has worsened for Democrats, Cygnal found.

Of course, voting is already underway. Nearly 654,000 people had voted early in Virginia as of Saturday, according to numbers from the Virginia Public Access Project. That's more than three times the 196,000 absentee votes cast in 2017, though the laws around early and mail voting have been liberalized since then. That's quite a lot of votes, but just a sliver of who will turn out if voting is on par with the 2.6 million ballots cast in the 2017 race for governor.

Well over half of this year's early voters (449,000) have done so in person. About 167,000 have sent mail ballot applications. Mail-in voting has been most popular in northern Virginia, with more than 23,000 being mailed from the 8th, 10th and 11th congressional districts. The Washington Post's Lenny Bronner has a deep dive into the early voting numbers, and why they might not be so good for Democrats.

The candidates have been pretty evenly matched on the air, at least when it comes to campaign spending. McAuliffe has spent a total $25.8 million on TV ads, while Youngkin has spent $25.4 million overall. Just last week, McAuliffe spent $3.6 million and Youngkin spent $2.3 million.

Virginia has loose coordination rules, so outside group spending has been limited . The Democratic Governors Association has boosted McAuliffe with $739,000 in a coordinated campaign, and the American Federation of Teachers has spent $615,000 on the air. That's far less than the $1.49 million the Restoration PAC has spent on Youngkin ads, along with an additional $1 million from the conservative group Free to Learn.

For more on the second-to-last campaign weekend in the Old Dominion, read POLITICO's Zach Montellaro on former President Barack Obama's campaign stop for McAuliffe in Richmond on Saturday. The Washington Examiner's Emily Brooks has a peek into the Youngkin campaign's painstaking strategy to stay on message. And The Washington Post's Dan Balz has a good read on how the current president and the former president are factoring into the race.

 

INTRODUCING CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. GET A FIRST LOOK AT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.

 
 

Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You'll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day's biggest stories.

Down the Ballot

THE GARDEN STATE — Obama stumped for Murphy over the weekend, The Star-Ledger's Brent Johnson reported. Obama appeared in Newark, where he urged voters to cast ballots early for the governor. Murphy has led Republican Jack Ciattarelli in recent polls, and is vying to become the first Democrat reelected in New Jersey in decades.

JUST PEACHY — Thune is the first member of Senate GOP leadership to endorse Walker in Georgia, months after top Republicans seemed wary of his bid for Senate, POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt wrote. Trump encouraged Walker to enter the race against Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock , and he has been endorsed by GOP Sens. Josh Hawley of Missouri, Steve Daines of Montana, Roger Marshall of Kansas and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina.

National Republicans "were impressed by Walker's [$3.8 million] haul during the third quarter, which showed that the candidate is putting together a serious finance operation capable of competing with Warnock, who is raising vast sums. They also note Walker has built a campaign team stacked with seasoned operatives," Alex points out. They are also reluctant to put Walker through a damaging primary in the battleground state.

— Georgia Democrats are fearful that voting rights are being eroded in the state, POLITICO's Laura Barrón-López reported, after Republicans passed new election restrictions earlier this year. "Deeply aware of the South's history, many who spoke to POLITICO said they worried that some of the horrors from that era are creeping up once more and that the voting rights wars could become violent, as exemplified by the Capitol riots on Jan. 6," Laura wrote. Voting advocates are calling on Congress to pass new voting rights laws, but legislation has stalled in the Senate.

— Meanwhile, Georgia investigators will not look into ballot harvesting claims by the state Republican Party chair and a conservative voting group, saying the claims lacked enough evidence, Georgia Public Broadcasting's Stephen Fowler reported. "For months, True the Vote has claimed to have evidence of ballot harvesting, when groups collect and return absentee ballots on behalf of voters," Fowler wrote, although the group has not provided videos of the alleged ballot harvesting, which is illegal in Georgia.

THE SHOW-ME STATE — The Republicans watching Missouri's crowded Senate primary agree on one thing: They need to stop disgraced former Gov. Eric Greitens, POLITICO's Natalie Allison wrote. Greitens has stacked his campaign with Trumpworld operatives, and is courting the former president's endorsement in the race to replace retiring Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.). But if he wins the crowded primary, some Republicans fear his scandal-plagued career could jeopardize the party's chances to hang onto the seat.

"To call it a clown show is an underestimation of the chaos," one longtime Missouri GOP activist told Natalie, sizing up the primary field.

PARTY PROBLEMS — House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is walking a tightrope with Trump as he tries to flip the House next year, The Washington Post's Michael Scherer and Josh Dawsey reported. The former president is angling to unseat the 10 Republicans who voted for his impeachment, even as McCarthy tries to build a GOP majority in the House. McCarthy has "been selling himself as a singular leader of the party, able to stand up to the unpredictable former president without breaking their bond."

THE BUCKEYE STATE — A pair of pro-Josh Mandel super PACs launched a nearly $1 million ad buy attacking Republican Senate candidate J.D. Vance, POLITICO's Natalie Allison reported. Club for Growth Action and USA Freedom Fund are airing the ads, which highlight old clips of Vance speaking negatively about Trump. Vance has reversed his position on the former president, who hasn't endorsed in the crowded primary battle.

— Speaking of the Ohio Senate race, it's among the most expensive contests in the country, the Cleveland Plain Dealer's Andrew Tobias wrote. "With more than six months before the May primary, Ohio's Republican U.S. Senate candidates had spent $9.5 million, the third-most of any partisan Senate primary in the country for the 2022 election cycle," partially thanks to the wealthy self-funders in the race.

STAFFING UP — New York state Attorney General Tish James is hiring campaign staff ahead of a possible bid for governor, The New York Times' Katie Glueck wrote. If she does enter the race, James will face Gov. Kathy Hochul in the Democratic primary. James hired prominent Democratic pollster Celinda Lake and Higher Heights for America co-founder Kimberly Peeler-Allen as a senior adviser and a campaign coordinator. New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams is exploring a bid for governor, and outgoing New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio is considering getting into the race.

DAY IN COURT — Florida businessperson Lev Parnas, an associate of Rudy Giuliani, was found guilty of campaign finance fraud, The Washington Post's Shayna Jacobs reported. A federal jury in New York found "that Parnas committed fraud through donations to several state and federal candidates that were bankrolled by a Russian financier. Parnas was also found guilty on counts related to a $325,000 donation in 2018 to a joint fundraising committee that supported then-President Donald Trump." Parnas faces up to 45 years in prison, and will be sentenced early next year.

THE MAP LINES — Florida Republicans control the redistricting process, and have already dealt some blows to Democrats, the Sarasota Herald-Tribune's John Kennedy wrote. Republicans have not proposed a map yet, but the chair of the state Senate redistricting chair ordered staff to draw maps "without regard to the preservation of existing district boundaries" rather than use court drawn political maps as a base for the new boundaries.

— North Carolina Republicans have pledged not to use race or partisan data to draw new political maps, but the proposed maps still favor Republicans, The Associated Press' Bryan Anderson and Nicholas Riccardi wrote. The approach has drawn skepticism from Democrats, who say Republicans do not need a spreadsheet to know the political leanings of different areas in the state. Republicans control redistricting in the Tarheel State.

— And in the race for Atlanta mayor, City Council President Felicia Moore and former Mayor Kasim Reed are leading the field of candidates on the November ballot, according to a new poll, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's J.D. Capelouto, Ben Brasch and Wilborn P. Nobles III wrote. Forty-one percent of voters are undecided, according to the poll, which was commissioned by the newspaper and conducted by the University of Georgia's School of Public and International Affairs from Oct. 6-20.

GETTING IN — Colorado Republican Pam Anderson launched a campaign against Democratic Secretary of State Jena Griswold, The Colorado Sun's Jesse Paul reported. Anderson criticized Griswold for being "hyper partisan." Anderson, the top elections official in Jefferson County, "believes that Colorado's voting systems are safe and secure and that there wasn't any fraud or wrongdoing that would have overturned the results of the 2020 presidential election."

 

BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.

 
 

NOTABLE FLOATABLES — New Mexico Republican Mark Ronchetti left his job as chief meteorologist at KRQE-TV to consider a run for governor, the Santa Fe New Mexican's Daniel Chacón reported. Ronchetti lost the Republican Senate primary last year, and has updated his website which now reads "Mark Ronchetti Governor." Ronchetti says he has not made a final decision on whether to run.

— Rhode Island state House Republican Leader Blake Filippi will decide whether to run for governor by the end of the year, WPRI's Ted Nesi and Tim White reported. Filippi would face Dave Darlington in a Republican primary.

THE KEYSTONE STATE — Pennsylvania Republican Sean Parnell's legal battles over his divorce and custody of his children are raising questions about whether the Senate candidate can win next year, CNN's Michael Warren and Sara Murray reported. Parnell was endorsed by Trump in the competitive primary race. Some Republican lawmakers and donors have asked NRSC chair Rick Scott why his consultants are working with Parnell in the primary, CNN reports, a sign that Republicans are doubting Trump's pick for the seat.

— Meanwhile, Pennsylvania state Sen. Doug Mastriano is waiting on a sign from God as he considers a run for governor, The Philadelphia Inquirer's Chris Brennan wrote. Mastriano's wife, Rebecca Mastriano, said at a recent church event that the family has "a monetary fleece out there." Mastriano has been a prominent Trump backer and has pushed false claims that the 2020 election was stolen. Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf is term-limited.

MIDTERM MESSAGING — The slow-moving fight to pass Biden's agenda has echoes of the 2010 battle over the Affordable Care Act, according to a pair of pollsters from either side of the aisle, The Washington Post's Paul Kane wrote. Joel Benenson, pollster for Obama's campaigns, and Neil Newhouse of the GOP polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, warn that Democrats are out of sync with independent voters ahead of the midterms. "Benenson gives Biden huge credit for winning independents by a net gain of 12 percentage points more than Hillary Clinton in 2016. Now they are turning away from Biden and his agenda," the Post notes.

THE GRANITE STATE — New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu will decide whether to run against Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) in a matter of weeks, he told WMUR's John DiStaso and Adam Sexton . Recent polls have shown a tight race between Sununu and Hassan. If he does jump into the race, Sununu made it clear that he will focus his campaign on fiscal issues and a desire to work independently of both the Republican and Democratic political 'clubs' – as he put it."

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY — "For those of you paying attention to the redistricting process, fasten your seat belt … This ride is going to get fast and furious." — Texas state Rep. Trey Martinez Fischer, a Democrat, on the legal battles over the state's new political maps, via KXAN.

 

Follow us on Twitter

Steven Shepard @politico_steve

Stephanie Murray @stephanie_murr

James Arkin @jamesarkin

Zach Montellaro @zachmontellaro

Ally Mutnick @allymutnick

 

Follow us

Follow us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Instagram Listen on Apple Podcast
 

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://www.politico.com/_login?base=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings

This email was sent to wedidit1@krushx.com by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA

Please click here and follow the steps to unsubscribe.

No comments:

Post a Comment