| | | | | |  | | By Ally Mutnick, Steven Shepard and Stephanie Murray | Presented by PREMION | | | | — Democrats dominated fundraising in six of the seven battleground Senate races, and more key takeaways from the third-quarter FEC reports. — Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe outraised Republican challenger Glenn Youngkin last month, as the tight race for governor heads into the home stretch. — Illinois Democrats are considering a congressional map that would diminish Republicans' strength, while Texas state lawmakers are having last-minute negotiations over proposed district lines. Good Monday morning. Ally Mutnick and Steve Shepard wrote this morning's topline. Thanks, Ally and Steve! Email me at smurray@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @stephanie_murr. Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, zmontellaro@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @ZachMontellaro and @allymutnick . Days until the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections, the OH-11 and OH-15 special elections and the FL-20 special primary: 15 Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 386 Days until the 2024 election: 1,114 | | | | A message from PREMION: When it comes to winning campaigns, every impression counts
With skyrocketing streaming TV audiences, CTV is now an essential media channel for reaching voters. Our new white paper helps political marketers navigate the increasingly fragmented and complex streaming TV marketplace and provides insights for effective planning, buying and measurement of CTV advertising. Download our complimentary white paper, A Marketer's Guide: The New Rules Ahead for Streaming TV Advertising here. | | | | | | THE CASH DASH — Republicans keep chipping away at Democrats' fragile House majority. But Dems are building a green wall around the 50-50 Senate. Those are the top takeaways from last Friday's third-quarter campaign finance deadline. First, the House: House Democrats lost their fundraising advantage. For years, Democratic candidates enjoyed a financial windfall that helped them win and then fortify their majority. Now, Republicans are easily keeping pace, thanks to an army of energized small-dollar donors. One stat emblematic of this new trend: At least 45 Democrats raised over $500,000 in the past three months, compared to at least 48 Republicans, according to a POLITICO analysis. That parity should concern Democrats, who used to run circles around the GOP when it came to candidate fundraising. Back in the third-quarter of 2019, at least 49 Democrats cleared that threshold, compared to at least 23 Republicans. Who will retire next? It's officially retirement season, and the third-quarter reports offer some tea leaves into who will jump ship next. A few incumbents with low fundraising to keep an eye on: Reps. David Price (D-N.C.), Grace Napolitano (D-Calif.), Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-Calif.), Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) and Mike Doyle (D-Pa.). Another shockingly low haul: Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.), who passed on a Senate run and is in redistricting peril, raised just $140,000. (Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Texas) raised just $2,500 but she's already suggested she's retiring.) Some of these members are not normally prolific fundraisers and don't live in expensive media markets. But each new Democratic retirement will generate more chatter about the party's fading hopes of keeping the majority — especially if Price, Kaptur or Roybal-Allard, who all hold coveted "cardinal" positions on the House Appropriations Committee, decide to hang it up. The pro-impeachment Republicans are still on top. None of the nine House Republicans who voted to impeach then-President Donald Trump and who are seeking reelection was outraised by a challenger. Reps. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), the two most prominent Trump critics had the largest hauls, $1.7 million and $562,000, respectively. Reps. John Katko (R-N.Y.), Fred Upton (R-Mich.) and David Valadao (R-Calif.) raised twice as much as their closest opponents. But Reps. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.) and Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.) raised less than $100,000 more than their challengers. Things are rosier for Democrats in the Senate . Of the core seven races on the Senate map — Republican-held seats in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, plus the four vulnerable Democrats in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire — a Democrat was the top fundraiser in six of the seven over the past three months, including self-funders. The Democratic incumbents aren't seeing any drag on their numbers — Sens. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) each cracked $8 million for the quarter — and Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) and Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) each have significantly more cash on hand than their likely GOP opponents, though Hassan did spend slightly more ($3.1 million) than she raised ($3 million). Senate primaries are getting messy, and self-funders are flexing their muscles. Nearly every major Senate primary has at least one self-funder putting their money where their candidacies are. Just this quarter, Republican Jim Lamon in Arizona; Republicans Jane Timken, Bernie Moreno and Mike Gibbons in Ohio; Democrat Val Arkoosh and Republican Carla Sands in Pennsylvania; and Democrats Alex Lasry and Sarah Godlewski in Wisconsin each kicked in at least $500,000. Some candidates, like Lamon in Arizona and Sands in Pennsylvania, donated multiple millions to their campaigns, though they aren't currently major factors in their primaries. | | | | INTRODUCING CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. GET A FIRST LOOK AT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE. | | | | | Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro . You'll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day's biggest stories. Trump's endorsement doesn't equal fundraising success. What do Mo Brooks, Kelly Tshibaka, Ted Budd and Sean Parnell have in common? Yes, they were all backed by Trump as part of his quest to MAGAify the GOP. But they were also each outraised by another Republican last quarter. Katie Boyd Britt blew past Brooks in Alabama. Sen. Lisa Murkowski eclipsed Tshibaka in Alaska. Former Gov. Pat McCrory nipped Budd in North Carolina. And Parnell was buried by Sands' self-funding ($3.1 million) in Pennsylvania. One major exception: Georgia Republican Herschel Walker. The Trump-endorsed former football star is off to a fast start, raising $3.8 million in an abbreviated third quarter after jumping in in August. It's part of a pattern of stellar fundraising by Black candidates — Democrats and Republicans alike — POLITICO's Maya King wrote. And don't miss a look at one of those candidates, Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.), who has built a prolific, but expensive, fundraising machine, according to POLITICO's Marc Caputo. Campaign Pro subscribers can dig into even more data, from our Senate (from Steve) and House (from Ally and POLITICO's Allan James Vestal) FEC charts. | | | |   | | | | | | OLD DOMINION — Friday wasn't just the federal filing deadline: Virginia candidates also submitted their September fundraising details. In the close gubernatorial race, McAuliffe outraised Youngkin, POLITICO's Zach Montellaro wrote (for Pros). McAuliffe, a Democrat, raised about $12.6 million in the month compared to around $7 million to Youngkin. ( McAuliffe's filing and Youngkin's filing, both courtesy of the Virginia Public Access Project.) McAuliffe also has significantly more cash on hand: A bit under $7.8 million at the end of the month, compared to $3.5 million for Youngkin. Youngkin is, however, independently wealthy and could close that gap with one check, but he did not cut one last month. (Two donors that stood out for Youngin: Former President George W. Bush and former Rep. Barbara Comstock.) And lest you think McAuliffe's digital operation was slowing down: Mary Trump, the estranged niece of the former president, has signed fundraising emails for McAuliffe last week. The campaign says those ads have raised $100,000. — Also in Friday's disclosures: A PAC with ties to Democrats that have been attacking Youngkin from the right on guns and more received $200,000 from the controversial Virginia utility Dominion Energy, Axios' Lachlan Markay reported. THE MAP LINES — Illinois Democrats are considering multiple draft congressional maps, POLITICO's Ally Mutnick and Shia Kapos wrote. The first proposal, unveiled Friday, could leave Republicans only three of the state's 17 seats. But unsatisfied with the map, national Democrats floated an alternative that could give Republicans control of only two districts. Illinois is one of only a few states where Democrats control redistricting, and the party is eager to press its advantage there. — Texas state lawmakers disagree on the state's draft congressional map, and the proposed district lines are headed for back-room negotiations, the Texas Tribune's Alexa Ura wrote. The state House tweaked a map on Saturday that was approved by the state Senate, and the Senate rejected the changes and requested a conference committee on Sunday. The special legislative session, which GOP Gov. Greg Abbott called to redraw the state's political maps, ends on Tuesday. RECRUITMENT WATCH — Democrats have finally landed their white-whale challenger in California's Central Valley. Democratic state Assemblyman Rudy Salas is launching a run Monday against GOP Rep. David Valadao . The DCCC has tried for years to land Salas, whose state assembly district overlaps with much of the current CA-21. Redistricting is a wild card, but this is a recruitment coup for House Democrats. ON THE AIRWAVES — The American Federation of Teachers placed a "high six-figure" ad buy to boost McAuliffe. The ad will run in the Washington market on broadcast and cable for 10 days targeting public school educators and parents. The cable portion will air on CNN, MSNBC, the Food Network, HGTV, Bravo and Lifetime. In the 30-second ad, public school parents and teachers highlight McAuliffe's education record from his term as governor. — The Jobs For Our Future PAC is up with a new 30-second ad attacking Parnell in the Pennsylvania Senate race. The PAC is supporting Republican candidate Jeff Bartos. The ad, titled "Hiding," highlights protection-from-abuse orders that Parnell's wife sought against them, and their ongoing legal battle. The PAC has spent more than $200,000 so far on its "The Real Record of Sean Parnell" campaign, which also includes digital ad spending. The ad will air in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, Wilkes Barre-Scranton, Johnstown, and Erie, and will target conservatives on Fox News Channel, and women voters on HGTV and Bravo. | | | | THE MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE 2021 IS HERE: POLITICO is excited to partner with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Global Insider" newsletter featuring exclusive coverage and insights from one of the largest and most influential gatherings of experts reinventing finance, health, technology, philanthropy, industry and media. Don't miss a thing from the 24th annual Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles, from Oct. 17 to 20. Can't make it? We've got you covered. Planning to attend? Enhance your #MIGlobal experience and subscribe today. | | | | | FIRST IN SCORE: POLL POSITION — Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) could be in a vulnerable position for reelection, according to a new poll commissioned by the conservative group Ending Spending. Republicans have a 4-percentage-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot in Gottheimer's district, which will be redrawn, according to the poll, which was conducted by The Tarrance Group. Gottheimer had a 47 percent approval rating in the poll, which surveyed 400 voters in Gottheimer's district from Sept. 28-Oct. 5. FIRST IN SCORE: PAC ATTACK — Family Friendly Action PAC announced a mid seven-figure independent expenditure to boost Kelly's reelection in the Arizona Senate race, the group announced. Democratic strategist Joe Wolf will lead the campaign. Wolf has served as state director for Family Friendly Arizona, a project of Family Friendly Action Fund to build support for President Joe Biden's Build Back Better agenda. The group will spend money on paid communication including TV, radio, mail and digital, and may run voter contact programs focused on field engagement. DAY IN COURT — Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer may have to return millions of dollars in campaign contributions if recall efforts against her don't materialize by the end of the year, according to Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, the Detroit Free Press' Paul Egan reported. "Whitmer has collected at least $3.4 million in what would normally be considered excess campaign contributions after her campaign invoked a recall exception to allow unlimited donations from individual donors," and may have to return the money if the recall proponents do not gather enough signatures. State Republican Party chair Ron Weiser filed a lawsuit against Benson over the contributions last month. — Nevada Senate candidate Adam Laxalt, a Republican, testified in the trial of Lev Parnas on Friday, POLITICO's Josh Gerstein wrote. Parnas is accused of "making illegal political donations through straw donors and on behalf of a Russian national," and Laxalt testified "detailing the intense scramble for cash in the closing weeks of his race for Nevada governor in 2018." GETTING IN — Ron Watkins launched a bid against Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D-Ariz.), and denied being the author of Q writings that sparked the QAnon conspiracy theory, Arizona Republic's Richard Ruelas reported. Watkins, who lived in Japan earlier this year, plans to run as a Republican and said he will file with the FEC by today. The HBO documentary, "Q: Into the Storm," points to Watkins as the author of the posts, something Watkins denies. NOTABLE FLOATABLES — Trump encouraged former Rep. Sean Duffy (R-Wis.) to enter the race for governor, although it's not clear whether Duffy is considering a campaign, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Molly Beck wrote. Former GOP Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch is already running against Democratic Gov. Tony Evers. FIRST IN SCORE: MONEY MOVES — Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) took in a combined $130,000 from corporations that oppose the Build Back Better Act, Democrats' sweeping social spending plan, according to a new analysis from watchdog Accountable.US. Manchin raised more than $79,000 from groups in trade associations that publicly oppose the bill, including ConocoPhillips and Dominion. Sinema raised more than $50,000 from groups in trade associations and coalitions that have publicly opposed the bill, like AT&T and Eli Lily. — Julie Jenkins Fancelli, daughter of the founder of the Publix grocery store chain and a prominent Trump donor, gave $150,000 to the nonprofit arm of the Republican Attorneys General Association, The Washington Post's Beth Reinhard, Jacqueline Alemany and Tom Hamburger reported. The funds were "intended in part to promote the rally" that preceded the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, according to the paper. Fancelli also financed the rally through other organizations, including Women for America First. ENDORSEMENT ALERT — EMILY's List endorsed Atlanta City Council President Felicia Moore for mayor. Moore is running in a tight race against former Mayor Kasim Reed, who was recently endorsed by the city's police union, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's J.D. Capeluto reported. EVERYTHING'S BIGGER IN TEXAS — The RNC is opening its third Hispanic community center in south Texas, Axios' Shawna Chen wrote. The San Antonio center is in Rep. Tony Gonzales' (R-Texas) district. STAFFING UP — Mike Schmuhl joins LangleyCyber as principal, and Eric Goldwater joins the firm as CFO. Schmuhl served as campaign manager on now-Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg's 2020 campaign and is currently the state Democratic Party chair in Indiana, and Goldwater previously worked for SKDK. — NextGen America expanded its board to 10 members. New to the organization's board are Delilah Agho-Otoghile, Andrea Evans, Amy Freitag, Sarah Grady, Tamer Mokhtar and Deepak Pateriya. THE SILVER STATE — The Nevada state Republican Party has been consumed by a "bonfire of lawsuits, counterclaims and resignations" in the wake of a pro-Trump insurgency, POLITICO's David Siders wrote. Republicans who support the former president and his baseless claims the election was rigged are clashing with the old-guard GOP. Some Republicans have left county GOP organizations and launched a PAC to help elect Republican lawmakers outside the party apparatus. | | | | A message from PREMION: When it comes to winning campaigns, every impression counts
According to eMarketer, 83 percent of U.S. households are projected to be CTV households this year. And political marketers are following their audiences and are embracing CTV as an essential channel for reaching voters.
With growing demand for premium CTV inventory, political consultants and buyers must plan early and understand the myriad of CTV buying options for running effective campaigns to reach engaged voters.
Our new white paper helps political marketers navigate the increasingly fragmented and complex streaming TV marketplace and provides insights for effective planning, buying and measurement of CTV advertising.
Download our complimentary white paper, A Marketer's Guide: The New Rules Ahead for Streaming TV Advertising here. | | | | | | BALLOT BATTLE — If Trump runs for president in 2024 and wins, one piece of his agenda could be implementing new voting restrictions, POLITICO's Meridith McGraw wrote. Nonprofit think tank America First Policy Institute, which has hired former Trump administration officials, launched a Center for Election Integrity. There is no evidence to support Trump's claims that the 2020 election was rigged. — Meanwhile, left-leaning groups fear Biden is squandering his chance to save American democracy, The Washington Post's Ashley Parker, Tyler Pager and Amy Gardner wrote. Citing Trump's efforts to undermine the 2020 election, activists say Biden "should throw himself into passing voting rights legislation and more aggressively go after states that are politicizing their election systems." CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY — "Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz's Big Fundraising PAC is Nearly Broke" — Mother Jones | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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