We Did it: Kansas airwaves turn negative — Trump says he’s ‘flexible’ about GOP convention — What we know from last night’s New Jersey primaries

Jul 08, 2020

Programming announcement: Our newsletters are evolving. Morning Score will continue to publish daily for POLITICO Pro subscribers, but will publish once weekly for other readers starting on July 13. There will be no changes to the policy newsletters available to POLITICO Pro subscribers. To continue to receive Morning Score daily, as well as access POLITICO Pro's full suite of policy tools and trackers, get in touch about a Pro subscription. Already a Pro subscriber? Learn more here.

Quick Fix

— A slew of negative ads have hit the airwaves ahead of the Kansas Republican Senate primary, as outside groups and candidates turn on each other in the state.

— President Donald Trump said he'd be "flexible" about the Republican convention in Florida, as coronavirus cases mount in the Sunshine State.

— Democrat Amy Kennedy will face the party-switching freshman GOP Rep. Jeff Van Drew in NJ-02, plus more results from last night's primaries in New Jersey.

Good Wednesday morning. James (jarkin@politico.com; @JamesArkin) pitched in with some help for today's topline. Thank you. Email me at zmontellaro@politico.com and follow me on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro.

Our condolences to the loved ones of longtime Delaware radio host Allan Loudell, who passed away at 64, according to WDEL. Allan was an incredibly generous reporter who hosted us on his show for really in-depth, fun conversations. We'll miss him.

Email the rest of the Campaign Pro team at sshepard@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve and @allymutnick.

Days until the Maine primary and Alabama and Texas primary runoffs: 6

Days until the Democratic convention: 40

Days until the Republican convention: 48

Days until the 2020 election: 118

Get the free POLITICO news app for the critical updates you need. Breaking news, analysis, videos, and podcasts, right at your fingertips. Download for iOS and Android.

TopLine

BATTLEGROUND KANSAS — The Kansas GOP Senate primary has been full of hand-wringing for a while now. But now, the airwaves are taking a decisively darker turn, as negative ads begin flying in the race.

A new, pop-up super PAC called Plains PAC is launching a multi-million campaign against Kris Kobach, who national Republicans fear will turn what should be a fairly straightforward race into a contested Senate seat. As we noted in Tuesday's Score, Plains PAC was launching a negative ad against Kobach. The ad is a doozy: It calls him a "failed candidate for governor" who has "ties to white nationalists."

The group says it is the opening salvo in a $3 million campaign. Kobach's campaign said in a statement that he "doesn't have ties to white nationalists, and he never has," while attacking the group as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's "establishment attack dogs." The group formed on July 1 and is a monthly filer, so we won't know who is bankrolling the group until Aug. 20, after the primary. Additionally, Keep Kansas Great PAC, a super PAC that supports GOP Rep. Roger Marshall, is set to return to the airwaves today.

But that is far from the only negative ad on the airwaves. Marshall and self-funding businessman Bob Hamilton are engaged in a tit-for-tat on the airwaves right now. Hamilton has released ads that target Marshall, and Marshall has run negative ads of his own attacking Hamilton as well. (Much of Marshall's attacks have seemingly originated from the site RedKansas.com, which houses a research document from the firm Cascade Strategies, various media clips of Marshall's opponents and b-roll of the congressman. There is no paid-for on the site.) Marshall has also run ads attacking Kobach , and Kobach has done the same.

All the while, Democrat Barbara Bollier has slipped by relatively unscathed. Bollier has a clear path to the Democratic nomination, and there's been no TV spending against her. (Here's her most recent ad, a positive bio spot where the narrator calls her a "sensible centrist.") Advertising Analytics tracks over $5.3 million in spending for the Republican primary on TV and radio advertising thus far. The newly launched Plains PAC is the biggest spender, topping out at over $2.1 million, followed by Hamilton's $1.7 million. And, a reminder: The Club for Growth, which opposes Marshall, announced that it won't spend any more on TV ads.

HAPPENING TODAY AT 12 PM EDT - HOW IS MAYOR FRANCIS SUAREZ APPROACHING THE COVID-19 SPIKE IN MIAMI? A rapid spike in coronavirus cases has forced Miami to scale back reopening plans. What will come next? Join POLITICO Nightly author Renuka Rayasam and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez for a conversation about the next steps, including plans to handle the virus' resurgence, measures that will take shape when schools reopen, and how a city reliant on tourism can recover from the devastation wrought by the pandemic. REGISTER HERE.

Presidential Big Board

CONVENTION SPOTTING — Trump signaled some willingness to be flexible with the convention in Jacksonville. "We're always looking at different things," Trump said when asked by Greta Van Susteren if he'd consider a smaller convention. "When we signed a few weeks ago, it looked good. And now all of a sudden it's spiking up a little bit — and that's going to go down — it really depends on the timing. Look, we're very flexible. We can do a lot of things, but we're very flexible."

And there's no guarantee that an event the size of the convention will even be allowed to go off. "Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a close Trump ally, refused to say on Tuesday whether he would lift a rule mandating that indoor gatherings stay under 50 percent capacity — which would hold the Jacksonville convention to 7,500 people," POLITICO's Marc Caputo and Gary Fineout reported. "Republicans familiar with the convention's planning privately said they hoped Florida's crowd limitation would remain in place because it's good public policy as well as good politics".

— Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) announced that he would not attend this year's Republican convention. In a statement, a spokesperson for Alexander said he isn't attending "because he believes the delegate spots should be reserved for those who have not had that privilege before as he has had," per The Washington Post's John Wagner.

A spokesperson for Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) told CBS News' Caitlin Huey-Burns that she also would not be attending, noting that she "never attended the national convention in years when she is up for election," and CBS News' Eleanor Watson reports that Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) will also not be in attendance.

THE PROCESS — With about four months to go until Election Day, there is an absolute wave of election administration-based lawsuits, The New York Times' Michael Wines writes. Democratic super lawyer Marc Elias and his firm are involved in more than 35 cases, and the RNC has filed or intervened in 19 cases. (Another helpful site: The Ohio State University Moritz College of Law has a list of major election law litigation.)

— The CDC recently issued guidelines that recommend offering alternative methods of voting, other than voting in-person on Election Day, along with extensive suggestions for how to better protect in-person voting, The Washington Post's Michelle Ye He Lee reported.

— Around 15,000 mail-in ballots were rejected in Kentucky's primaries in the state's two largest counties Jefferson and Fayette, per the Louisville Courier Journal's Ben Tobin. The total number of ballots is (obviously) much higher than past elections, but the rejection rate in Jefferson County was about on par with the 2016 general election, and lower than the 2018 general election.

STAFFING UP — Joe Biden has announced his senior staff in Pennsylvania. Brendan McPhillips is state director, and Sinceré Harris is senior adviser. The Philadelphia Inquirer's Jonathan Tamari has more.

WINNERS PLAY THE LONG GAME : Now more than ever, it's essential to look ahead to how society will thrive in the future. "The Long Game" is a newsletter designed for executives, investors and policymakers leading that conversation. Sustainability starts in your inbox; engage with the sharpest minds on our biggest challenges, from pandemics to environmental justice, climate change to renewable energy, inequality, and the future of work. Subscribe today for a nuanced look at these problems and possible solutions.

Down the Ballot

ABOUT LAST NIGHT — The Kennedy legacy continues. In NJ-02, Amy Kennedy (who is married to former Rhode Island Rep. Patrick Kennedy) beat Brigid Callahan Harrison and Will Cunningham to win the right to face Van Drew, who easily dispatched a primary challenger of his own. Here's more from POLITICO New Jersey's Matt Friedman.

In NJ-07, Republican Tom Kean handily won his primary and will face freshman Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski in November. Democratic Rep. Albio Sires easily beat back a primary challenge in NJ-08.

A couple races remained uncalled when we closed up shop. In NJ-03, David Richter led Kate Gibbs in the GOP primary to face freshman Democratic Rep. Andy Kim. And in NJ-05, Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer led his primary challenger Arati Kreibich in the early vote count, and Frank Pallotta led the Republican primary. Here are the full results for the state.

ON THE AIRWAVES — GOP Rep. John Katko is out with his first ad of the cycle in NY-24. The ad is a positive bio spot that makes no mention of Trump (or any infighting in Washington), and instead highlight's Katko's bipartisan bona fides. The ad is a series of news clips highlighting Katko as being bipartisan. (By my count, the words "bipartisan" or "bipartisanship" are mentioned five times in the ad.) Katko is due for a rematch against Democrat Dana Balter, whom he beat by about five points in the midterms, in a district Hillary Clinton narrowly carried in 2016.

Heading downstate, freshman Democratic Rep. Max Rose also launched his first TV ad of his reelection campaign. "When something big happens in New York City, someone's always trying to shove Staten Island and South Brooklyn to the back of the line," he says in the ad. "Well, not anymore." Rose is facing Republican Nicole Malliotakis in a district Trump won by about 10 points in 2016.

— FIRST IN SCORE — Club for Growth Action has a new TV ad in the Republican primary in the red, open AL-02. The ad attacks Jeff Coleman, saying he has "a truckload of promises, but you can't believe him." The ad criticizes Coleman for not donating to Trump in 2016. The Club backs Barry Moore in the district.

The Club also has two more ads in safe Republican GOP primaries. In AL-01, the ad attacks Jerry Carl and boosts Bill Hightower over support for Trump. And in TX-13, the ad attacks Josh Winegardner as a "well paid Washington lobbyist."

— Republican Jake LaTurner, who is primarying freshman GOP Rep. Steve Watkins , is out with a new ad going after the incumbent. The ad has LaTurner airing a smorgasbord of complaints about the freshman, including him being registered to vote at a UPS store, originally considering running as a Democrat and using his office's franking budget to send mailers.

— FIRST IN SCORE — Majority Forward, the Democratic dark-money group, is out with a new ad in Colorado criticizing Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) over health care. "Gardner voted nine times with Donald Trump to eliminate protections for people with pre-existing conditions," the ad's narrator says. "And even during a pandemic, Gardner refuses to condemn Trump's lawsuit that strips away our coverage."

We also have new ads in Colorado from both Gardner and former Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper. Hickenlooper's ad is focused on health care: "In the middle of a health crisis, why is the Trump administration in court to get rid of people's protections for pre-existing medical conditions?" In a new ad from Gardner, he says "we've been locked up for months," and encourages Coloradans to go outside, promoting the Great American Outdoors Act, which he sponsored and introduced.

— The NRSC is out with its first ad in Montana, attacking Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock. He "supports a public health care option," the ad's narrator says. "Basically government-controlled health care."

— One Nation, the Republican dark-money group focused on the Senate, is out with a trio of ads promoting Republican incumbents' coronavirus response. Ad ad in Montana says Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) "wants to hold China accountable," and one boosting Sen. Thom Tillis in North Carolina has a similar theme. An ad in Iowa supporting Sen. Joni Ernst boosts the Paycheck Protection Program, saying she fought for "bipartisan legislation" that saved tens-of-thousands of Iowa jobs.

— Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) released the first pair of TV ads of his reelection campaign. In the first ad , Perdue speaks directly to camera: "Contrary to what the radical left is saying, America has been and still is the greatest country in the world." The second ad focuses on police reform. "Do we need police reform? Absolutely. But is defunding the police the answer? Absolutely not," Perdue says in the ad.

— Democrat Royce West is out with a new ad ahead of the Texas Senate runoff, calling himself a "real Democrat" and criticizing his opponent MJ Hegar for voting for Republicans. (The primary has turned quite contentious; Here's a mouthful of a headline with the Hegar pushback in The Dallas Morning News: "MJ Hegar denies Royce West claim she's not a real Democrat, possibly racist; hits him as sexist, cozy with 'corruption'".)

GOP Sen. John Cornyn also has a radio ad that's not particularly subtly poking into the runoff. "Hegar has all the big D.C. money backing her," the ad's narrator says, while calling West "consistently liberal." The campaign said it was a "nearly six-figure" buy running in various markets.

— The American Federation of Teachers said it is launching a $1 million TV and digital campaign targeting senators over school reopening. "Why are Senate Republicans taking a vacation instead of passing funding to safely reopen schools and kickstart our economy?" the ad's narrator says. The ad is airing in 10 states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Kentucky, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, along with Washington D.C. (Here's the Colorado example of the ad, they're all similar.)

ON THE BALLOT — The Virginia Board of Elections voted to retroactively grant an extension to eight candidates who didn't hit an early June 9 deadline to file to get on the ballot, the Richmond Times-Dispatch's Justin Mattingly reported, but they weren't happy about it. "We're forced to give a pass at the scofflaw at the expense of the candidates who follow the rules," board chairman Bob Brink said, who "reluctantly" voted for the extension. Candidates that got an extension include Republican Bob Good, who ousted freshman GOP Rep. Denver Riggleman at a convention in VA-05, and Republican Nick Freitas, who is running to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger in VA-07. (Three other VA-07 Republicans also missed the filing deadline, and the district's Republican convention is on July 18.)

FIRST IN SCORE — JUST SUPER — A new super PAC founded by Joe Ricketts is arriving on the scene. The group, called Citizens for Free Enterprise, "is an organization dedicated to promoting free enterprise, and the opportunity and innovation, it brings," Ian Prior, a spokesperson for the group said in a statement. "We will mobilize entrepreneurs and free enterprise supporters and engage them in public policy and the political process," Prior said. "We will support candidates who stand for free market principles, and personal responsibility."

(INTERNAL) POLL POSITION — A new poll conducted for Republican Bill Hagerty's shows him up double digits in the Tennessee Senate primary. In The Tarrance Group poll, Hagerty, who was endorsed by Trump and was his ambassador to Japan, had support from 46 percent of likely primary voters compared to Dr. Manny Sethi, who had 29 percent support; 18 percent were undecided. (651 likely primary voters; June 28-30, +/- 4 percentage point MOE).

THE CASH DASH — More Q2 hauls are coming in. We're just a week away from the deadline right now!

— KY-Sen: Democrat Amy McGrath raised $17.4 million for the quarter, per The New York Times' Thomas Kaplan and Rebecca Ruiz. She did not announce a cash on hand total but had $19.3 million on hand through her pre-primary report that ran through early June.

— SC-Sen: Democrat Jaime Harrison announced that he raised over $13.9 million in the quarter. He did not announce a cash on hand total.

— MO-Gov: Democratic state Auditor Nicole Galloway raised $1.1 million. She did not announce a cash on hand total.

— FL-16: GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan raised $670,000, per Florida Politics' Jacob Ogles, but didn't announce a cash on hand total.

— NC-08: Democrat Pat Timmons-Goodson announced she raised more than $820,000 in the quarter, and will report more than $600,000 in the bank.

— FIRST IN SCORE — NM-02: Freshman Democratic Rep. Xochitl Torres Small raised over $1.1 million and has over $3.8 million in the bank.

— NY-11: Rose raised over $1.3 million in the quarter and will report $4.3 million in cash on hand, per Campaign Pro's Ally Mutnick.

— TX-10: GOP Rep. Mike McCaul raised nearly $540,000 and has over $1.2 million in the bank, per the Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek.

— Downballot: The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and its affiliated groups announced that they raised over $5.8 million in the quarter.

PPP LOANS — There's been a bunch of stories bouncing around about businesses owned by (or tied to) lawmakers and challengers receiving PPP loans, but here's an especially interesting case: KXAN's John Engel reported that the campaign of Democrat Christine Mann, who is running in the TX-31 runoff, received a PPP loan. According to a FEC filing, Mann received a $28,000 loan from First Bank Texas through the program. "As a grassroots campaign and like many other small businesses, we were hit financially during the pandemic," a spokesperson for Mann's campaign told KXAN. The campaign told KXAN that the FEC did not raise any objections, and the loan was paid back the following month.

THE GOVERNATORS — Supporters of former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who recently lost the GOP gubernatorial primary to Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox, are pushing a write-in bid, Utah Policy's Bryan Schott reported. "Sources close" to the other candidates said Huntsman backers floated the idea to them. A spokesperson for the Huntsman campaign said they were not behind the overtures, nor a poll that raised the prospect.

THE SENATE MAP — Republican Gov. Larry Hogan said he wasn't interested in challenging Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) in 2022 — but he didn't rule out a 2024 presidential run, in an interview with The New York Times' Luke Broadwater.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I'm not going to put myself in the middle of a crowd of thousands of people, if that's your question specifically." — New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu on if he'd attend Trump's rally in the state, per CNN.

Follow us on Twitter