We Did it: The primaries to watch in New Jersey — Faithless electors can be punished, SCOTUS rules — Cox beats Huntsman in Utah GOP gubernatorial primary

Jul 07, 2020

Programming announcement: Our newsletters are evolving. Morning Score will continue to publish daily for POLITICO Pro subscribers, but will publish once weekly for other readers starting on July 13. There will be no changes to the policy newsletters available to POLITICO Pro subscribers. To continue to receive Morning Score daily, as well as access POLITICO Pro's full suite of policy tools and trackers, get in touch about a Pro subscription. Already a Pro subscriber? Learn more here.

Quick Fix

— New Jersey is the only state holding downballot primaries today, but that doesn't mean there aren't a handful of competitive races to watch.

— The Supreme Court ruled unanimously that states have the authority to punish faithless Electoral College electors, shutting down a potential issue ahead of November.

— Utah Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox won the state's Republican gubernatorial primary, ending former Gov. Jon Huntsman's comeback bid.

Good Tuesday morning. If you feel comfortable doing so, consider donating blood to your local blood bank. I did so on Monday (for the first time ever!), and ran into fewer people there than at my grocery store. They probably need it! Email me at zmontellaro@politico.com and follow me on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the rest of the Campaign Pro team at sshepard@politico.com, amutnick@politico.com and jarkin@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @JamesArkin and @allymutnick.

Days until the Maine primary and Alabama and Texas primary runoffs: 7

Days until the Democratic convention: 41

Days until the Republican convention: 49

Days until the 2020 election: 119

Get the free POLITICO news app for the critical updates you need. Breaking news, analysis, videos, and podcasts, right at your fingertips. Download for iOS and Android.

TopLine

THE GARDEN STATE — With apologies to Delaware, which is holding its presidential primary today, the only real action tonight comes out of New Jersey, which is the home to several House seats that are expected to be hotly contested come November. In-person polling places close at 8 p.m. tonight.

As with a lot of recent primaries, we may not know a winner immediately. The primary, which was postponed from early June, will be conducted predominantly by mail after active Democrats and Republicans were mailed ballots. Ballots that are postmarked by today can be counted, as long as they're received by 8 p.m. on July 14. My POLITICO New Jersey colleague Matt Friedman has five things to watch in the Garden State, but here are a couple of the primaries tonight that we're keeping an especially close eye on.

NJ-02: There's been an especially contentious Democratic primary to challenge the party-switching freshman GOP Rep. Jeff Van Drew in this Atlantic City-area district. Democrats Brigid Callahan Harrison, a political science professor, and Amy Kennedy, a teacher who married into the American political dynasty, have been sniping back and forth in a race where a Kennedy has tried to cast herself as an outsider, running against the machine-backed Harrison. Matt has more on the race in a good story from May, with a field that also includes Will Cunningham, a former Hill staffer who lost to Van Drew in the 2018 Democratic primary who is running on a progressive platform.

Meanwhile, Van Drew is also facing a primary challenge from Robert Patterson, a former official at the Social Security Administration earlier in Trump's presidency.

NJ-03: Freshman Democratic Rep. Andy Kim holds this district that represents part of the Philly suburbs, after narrowly defeating then-GOP Rep. Tom MacArthur in the midterms. Kim has no primary challenge, while the Republican contest is between Kate Gibbs and David Richter. Richter initially planned on challenging Van Drew before he switched parties, and was not so subtly nudged out of that district after initially saying he wouldn't step aside for Van Drew. WHYY's P. Kenneth Burns has more on this race.

NJ-05: New Jersey's progressive primary challengers flew well under the radar, overshadowed by the handful of high profile races in the neighboring New York. But the one that has gotten the most attention is Arati Kreibich's challenge to Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer in Bergen County. Kreibich, a neuroscientist, has picked up the endorsement of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.), along with progressive groups like the Working Families Party and Indivisible. But she's going up against Gottheimer, who has one of the biggest war chests out of any House incumbent. He's also got some help, in the form of $175,000 of outside spending from Patriot Majority PAC.

This district is one that Trump narrowly carried in 2016, but Gottheimer has been able to hold off challengers in cycles-past thanks in large part due to that unfathomably large war chest, which was at nearly $8.5 million as of the pre-primary report. Republicans running for the nomination in the district include Frank Pallotta and John McCann.

Another Democrat facing a primary challenge: Rep. Albio Sires in NJ-08. Matt wrote about that race last week (for Pros), which sees attorney Hector Oseguera running an underfunded challenge to Sires. Nevertheless, Sires and his allies have been on the attack.

Other districts in the state will be competitive come November, but the primaries are less exciting. In NJ-07, Republican Tom Kean is expected to easily win the primary to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski, while neither freshman Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill nor Republican Rosemary Becchi have primaries in NJ-11.

HAPPENING TOMORROW AT 12 PM EDT - HOW IS MAYOR FRANCIS SUAREZ APPROACHING THE COVID-19 SPIKE IN MIAMI? A rapid spike in coronavirus cases has forced Miami to scale back reopening plans. What will come next? Join POLITICO Nightly author Renuka Rayasam and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez for a conversation about the next steps, including plans to handle the virus' resurgence, measures that will take shape when schools reopen, and how a city reliant on tourism can recover from the devastation wrought by the pandemic. REGISTER HERE.

Presidential Big Board

OH YE OF LITTLE FAITH — In a unanimous ruling, the Supreme Court ruled that states are free to remove or otherwise punish presidential electors who break their pledge to back a specific candidate. POLITICO's Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney : "Advocates for so-called faithless electors argued that the Constitution's silence on the issue should prevent states from being able to fine or swap out electors who stray from the winner of the statewide popular vote, but the justices ruled that states can use such measures to coerce electors to remain true to their commitments." (Josh and Kyle's story also has more on how electors are selected, if you're curious.)

CONVENTION SPOTTING — Democrats have already nixed plans for a full-bore convention in Milwaukee. But now, some are even skeptical about the feasibility of the satellite sites across the country. "We should think, 'What would Dr. Fauci do?' And I doubt Dr. Fauci would say go ahead and have mini-conventions across the country," Rep. Ro Khanna, who is co-chairing the California delegation, told POLITICO's Holly Otterbein . "I personally think it will backfire to be aggressive like the Republicans are." A spokesperson for the Democratic convention said "specifics of the satellites have not yet been finalized."

— Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said he won't attend the Republican convention in Jacksonville for the first time in forty years, citing concerns about the pandemic, per the Des Moines Register's Stephen Gruber-Miller.

ON THE AIRWAVES — EDF Action launched an ad opposing President Donald Trump in Florida. "Florida's climate crisis is getting worse," the ad's narrator says, reusing footage of Trump saying climate change is a hoax. It'll start airing today in the Tampa media market.

WINNERS PLAY THE LONG GAME : Now more than ever, it's essential to look ahead to how society will thrive in the future. "The Long Game" is a newsletter designed for executives, investors and policymakers leading that conversation. Sustainability starts in your inbox; engage with the sharpest minds on our biggest challenges, from pandemics to environmental justice, climate change to renewable energy, inequality, and the future of work. Subscribe today for a nuanced look at these problems and possible solutions.

Down the Ballot

ALL OVER IN UTAH — Cox defeated Huntsman in the Utah GOP gubernatorial primary, handing the Huntsman name its first defeat in the state and likely securing the gubernatorial mansion for himself come November. Cox had the endorsement of outgoing Gov. Gary Herbert, and narrowly defeated Huntsman, who had served as American ambassador for both China and Russia and ran for president since the last time he served in the state. Cox will face Democratic nominee Chris Peterson in November, where Cox is the prohibitive favorite.

— Blake Moore won the Republican nomination in the open, red UT-01 and is the heavy favorite going into November.

YOU USED TO CALL ME ON MY CELL PHONE — The Supreme Court let a ban on unsolicited robocalls to cell phones stand, after the American Association of Political Consultants tried to get the prohibition tossed. The political consultants argued that a carveout given to debt collectors made the ban unconstitutional, I wrote . The high court agreed that the carveout was unconstitutional, but instead of striking the whole law, it severed the carveout. (This'll lead to both unhappy political consultants and unhappy debt collectors, a real winning combo.)

The ramifications? Cheaper GOTV efforts that some hoped would come from the case are no more. And a good point from pollster Natalie Jackson, the research director of PRRI: "Phone polling will remain expensive. The way this law has been interpreted by the FCC prevents phone pollsters from using 'automatic dialers' — which only require an interviewer's time if someone answers the phone. It cuts way down on labor costs." (And if you don't already, you should take IVR-only polls with a big grain of salt.)

THE CASH DASH — Some big fundraising numbers coming in for Q2. (Reminder: Quarterly reports are due on the 15th!)

— MT-Sen: Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock raised $7.7 million, and will report $7.4 million in the bank.

— NC-Sen: Democrat Cal Cunningham will report raising $7.4 million, with $6.6 million in cash on hand.

— NC-Gov: Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper announced that he raised $5.5 million, with nearly $14 million in cash reserves.

— IA-01: Republican Ashley Hinson reported raising over $1 million, with $1.55 million in the bank.

— FIRST IN SCORE — MI-03: Democrat Hillary Scholten raised $484,000 and will report $515,000 in cash on hand.

— FIRST IN SCORE — OH-01: Democratic nominee Kate Schroder raised over $610,000 in the quarter, her campaign announced. "Our 16,000+ individual grassroots donors know and believe this community deserves better leadership," Schroder said in a statement. She has $500,000 on hand.

— TX-07: Republican Wesley Hunt raised $900,000 in the quarter and has $1 million in cash on hand.

— VA-02: Freshman Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria raised $930,000 and will report over $2.8 million in cash on hand.

— VA-07: Pre-convention reports were also due for Republicans in the district. Reports cover from April 1 through June 28. Nick Freitas raised $404,000, spent $299,000 and has $353,000 in the bank ( filing). John McGuire raised $352,000, spent $212,000 and has $258,000 in the bank (filing).

Tina Ramirez raised $62,000, spent $59,000 and had $37,000 in cash on hand. Andrew Knaggs raised $27,000, spent $36,000 and had $26,000 in cash on hand (filing ). Two other candidates — Pete Greenwald and Jason Alexander Roberge — are also running, but hadn't raised a significant amount of cash in previous quarters.

— WI-03: Republican Derrick Van Orden, who is running to challenge Democratic Rep. Ron Kind, raised over $500,000. He'll report $387,000 in the bank.

FIRST IN SCORE — (INTERNAL) POLL POSITION — End Citizens United, the Democratic outside group, is out with a new poll in Arizona. The poll by Global Strategy Group has Democrat Mark Kelly at 49 percent to 42 percent for GOP Sen. Martha McSally (800 likely voters; June 19-24; +/- 3.5 percentage point MOE).

— ECU also released an Iowa poll. This GQR poll has Democrat Theresa Greenfield at 49 percent, to 47 percent for GOP Sen. Joni Ernst. (800 likely voters; June 23-28; +/- 3.46 percentage point MOE).

FIRST IN SCORE — ON THE AIRWAVES — Majority Forward, the Democratic dark money group, is launching a new ad in Iowa. The ad targets Ernst over the coronavirus response. "She voted twice against paid sick leave for Iowans affected by the virus," the ad's narrator says. "Instead, Ernst used the crisis to bail out the biggest corporations."

Senate Majority PAC, the Democratic super PAC, is also adding $3.6 million to its ad buy in Iowa, per Roll Call's Bridget Bowman . The super PAC will start running ads in August.

Meanwhile, Ernst is up with the first television ad of her reelection effort. The ad highlights her military service and goes after China. "We rely on communist China for far too much, from technology to medicine," she says in the ad.

— One Nation, the Republican dark money group, has booked airtime in Alabama. Advertising Analytics tracks $2.15 million in broadcast reservations, starting the week after the GOP primary runoff between Tommy Tuberville and Jeff Sessions on July 14.

— A big ad buy is landing today in the Kansas GOP Senate primary. Advertising Analytics tracks over $2 million in TV and radio reservations from a group called Plains PAC, starting today and running through the Aug. 4 primary. We haven't seen creative yet, but forms filed with the FCC by several stations indicate that it is an anti-Kris Kobach ad. One filing says the "ad mentions that candidate Kris Kobach has ties to white nationalists."

THE MAP LINES — Democrats are hoping for a wave in state legislative races this year, hoping to take control of the redistricting process after they were crushed by Republicans in 2010. "From Pennsylvania to Texas to Minnesota, cash-flush Democrats are working to win back legislative chambers needed to take control of drawing congressional maps — or at least guarantee a seat at the table," POLITICO's Natasha Korecki and Chris Cadelago wrote.

— A federal judge tossed a lawsuit backed by Michigan Republicans seeking to challenge the state's new independent redistricting commission, Bridge's Riley Beggin reported.

— Democrats in New Jersey are seeking to push legislative redistricting in the state until 2023, if expected delays in census data comes to pass, the New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein reported.

FIRST IN SCORE — ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Club for Growth PAC is wading in to the competitive GOP primary in the open, red TN-01. The Club is backing state Rep. Timothy Hill. "I am confident that Hill will be a great pro-growth Congressman for Tennessee who will be a principled leader on key issues like reducing government spending, cutting taxes, and fighting for term limits," CFG president David McIntosh said in a statement.

PRIMARY PROBLEMS — A group of progressive operatives with ties to Sanders and the Justice Democrats are launching a new nonprofit, and their first target is Rep. Richie Neal (D-Mass.). Campaign Pro's Ally Mutnick reports that the group, Fight Corporate Monopolies, will spent $300,000 targeting Neal, who is facing a challenge from Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse. They'll air a new TV ad tying Neal to Blackstone.

THE SENATE MAP — Republicans are in danger of losing a big chunk of their women senators. "Out of nine Senate GOP women serving, four face highly competitive races this year in Arizona, Maine, Georgia and Iowa," POLITICO's Marianne LeVine and James reported. "Both Republicans and Democrats note that the women GOP senators in competitive races are not endangered because of their gender, but because of the states they represent and the broader electoral environment facing the party."

PROBABLY NOT WATERGATE — Campaign staff of Republican Kat Cammack, who is running in the open primary in the red FL-03, said someone broke into their campaign office, per WTSP's Lina Ruiz. Staffers noted the intruder was initially found sleeping on a couch, and left behind a comb, a half-eaten Oreo and some change.

STAFFING UP — Caroline Anderegg is joining McSally's campaign as communications director. She most recently was communications director at the Hudson Institute.

— Eric Reif is joining eStreet Group as managing director. He was previously director of paid media for Sen. Elizabeth Warren 's (D-Mass.) presidential campaign.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "This is not going to be the full army deployment, but it's going to be the special ops. A smaller team, but we'll still get the job done," Fox News anchor Bret Baier to The New York Times, on the expected lower media presence at this year's convention.

Follow us on Twitter