We Did it: Republican runoff candidates vie to be the Trumpiest — Could the GOP convention be headed to the great outdoors?

Jul 10, 2020

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Quick Fix

— In four runoffs in Alabama and Texas on Tuesday, Republican candidates are selling themselves as allies to President Donald Trump. But the president has largely sat out the open races in red districts.

— Republican officials are mulling moving the Republican convention in Jacksonville to an outdoor venue, The Washington Post reports, as they grapple with the logistics of a pandemic-era mass gathering.

— We have a few more calls trickling in from New York and New Jersey, as the two states count waves of absentee ballots.

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Days until the Maine primary and Alabama and Texas primary runoffs: 4

Days until the Democratic convention: 38

Days until the Republican convention: 46

Days until the 2020 election: 116

TopLine

JUST LIKE TRUMP — There's a whole bunch of House runoffs taking place on Tuesday, but today we'll be taking brief stops in four open, safe GOP seats. Across the four districts there's a common theme: Candidates are all running as staunch allies to Trump. But the president has largely sat out the races, only endorsing one with whom he has a longstanding personal relationship with.

AL-01: The primary to replace GOP Rep. Bradley Byrne , who gave up his seat for a failed Senate bid, is down to Mobile County Commissioner Jerry Carl and state Sen. Bill Hightower, who both were in the high-30s in the original March 3 primary. The race harkens back a bit to the old Republican divide of yore: The Chamber of Commerce has backed Carl, while National Right to Life and the Club for Growth have gotten behind Hightower. The outgoing Bryne, meanwhile, has backed Carl and cut an ad for him.

In news that's probably unsurprisingly to Score readers, Club for Growth Action has spent heavily in the race. In June and July, the Club dropped $439,000 in the district on TV and radio, easily the largest single spender, according to Advertising Analytics. They've spent nearly $1.4 million in the district for the entirety of the race. Respective ads from both camps have tried to pass over the other side as a Never Trumpers. (Here's Carl calling Hightower and the Club "Never Trumpers" in an ad, and one from Hightower saying Carl is "nothing like Donald Trump.")

AL-02: This runoff pits businessman Jeff Coleman against former state Rep. Barry Moore. The dynamics here are not dissimilar to AL-01: Coleman has the endorsement of retiring GOP Rep. Martha Roby and the Chamber, while Moore secured the Club's backing, along with the House Freedom Fund. (Moore unsuccessfully tried to primary Roby in 2018, but didn't make it to the runoff then.) In the original primary, Coleman was at 38 percent, to Moore's 20 percent. The two met for a debate earlier this week; here's The Enterprise Ledger's Sable Riley's coverage of it.

And, wouldn't you know it, the Club has been the biggest spender in the district on TV and radio since the beginning of June, spending $350,000. In this case, Coleman has been outspent over the last two months by the Club on TV, but he has been on the air since November 2019 at a cost of over $1 million. A recent Hightower ad hits Moore for the Club's support, calling them a "Never Trump super PAC." Club ads have tried to paint Coleman as anti-Trump.

TX-13: This north Texas runoff is to replace retiring GOP Rep. Mac Thornberry , and features the only one of these primaries where Trump has actually endorsed a candidate. The president backed former White House doctor Ronny Jackson, who is facing off against Josh Winegarner, who finished nearly 20 points ahead of Jackson. Trump himself didn't wade into the primary until just days before the March 3 election, boosting Jackson's struggling campaign. Thornberry had backed Winegarner.

"Both candidates are effusive in their praise of the president, and the two don't offer many policy differences," The Dallas Morning News' Tom Benning wrote about the race, noting that "the race has heated up in recent weeks. Jackson and Winegarner have sparred over their credentials in a series of debates, while negative advertisements – including some from outside groups – have started hitting the airwaves."

TX-17: The last runoff in an open red seat we're watching is between Renee Swann and former Rep. Pete Sessions, who hopped districts after losing to now-Democratic Rep. Colin Allred in TX-32 in the midterms, about 100 miles north. Unlike the other open primaries, the race hasn't attracted all that much outside spending. Sessions' move rankled some Texans, including outgoing Rep. Bill Flores, who has thrown his support behind Swann. The Texas Tribune's Abby Livingston has a deep dive on the race that's well worth the read.

Presidential Big Board

CONVENTION SPOTTING — Attendees at the Republican National Convention could be due for a breath of fresh air. The Washington Post's Josh Dawsey reported that convention organizers "are studying two outdoor professional sports stadiums" and "looking more broadly into the logistics of pulling off an outdoor convention," while no final decision has been made. The Post reported that Trump was recently briefed on the options.

— Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis directed his top fundraiser "to tell donors not to give to the convention because of a personal dispute between the governor and Susie Wiles," a once-ousted aide who is now back working for Trump, The New York Times' Annie Karni Patricia Mazzei reported. The fundraiser, Heather Barker, denied doing so in an interview with The Times: "We are encouraging all people to participate and we hope it's a success for the president," she said. "We just hope everything is a success and want it to be, however they want to structure things and put things together."

ON THE AIRWAVES — President Donald Trump's campaign made a big buy for an ad campaign running over the weekend. The campaign reserved $5.3 million in airtime from Saturday through Tuesday. The buy is split across a dozen states, plus a national component. The campaign also released a new TV ad saying Biden has a "dangerous and foolish" record on trade policy.

THE BIG SPEECH — Joe Biden gave a major address on his economic vision for the country, POLITICO's Caitlin Oprysko, Megan Cassella and Holly Otterbein reported, in an event that focused heavily on Biden's "Buy American" plan.

CASH DASH — Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins' campaign announced that he reached the required amount of fundraising to receive matching primary funds, which the campaign intends to use for ballot access petitioning. The Green Party does not qualify for general election matching funds.

STAFFING UP — Biden hired three communication aides to boost outreach to people of color: Pili Tobar has joined the campaign as communications director for coalitions, Ramzey Smith is serving as African American media director, and Jennifer Molina is Latino media director, per The Post's Sean Sullivan.

THE CRITICAL NEWS AND CONTEXT YOU NEED, IN 15 MINUTES OR LESS: Covid-19 cases are on the rise, protests to address racial injustice and police reform are ongoing, and a pivotal election is just a few short months away. Struggling to keep up with this never-ending news cycle? Keep up to speed with the day's essential news with POLITICO Dispatch, a short, daily podcast that cuts through the news clutter. SUBSCRIBE TODAY.

Down the Ballot

LAST CALLS — Republican Frank Pallotta won the GOP primary in NJ-05. He'll face Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer in November. In the red-leaning NJ-04, Democrat Stephanie Schmid won her primary and will face GOP Rep. Chris Smith in November, the only Republican member of the New Jersey delegation.

In NY-22, former GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney was declared the winner of her primary by the AP. She'll face off against freshman Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi in a midterms rematch.

And Democrat Nancy Goroff edged out Perry Gershon by a few hundreds votes in the primary to face GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin in NY-01. The AP has not yet called the race, but both Gershon and third-place finisher Bridget Fleming conceded the race, per Newsday's Rachelle Blidner.

THE CASH DASH — We're nearly there!

— CA-25: Freshman GOP Rep. Mike Garcia raised $2.5 million in the quarter (recall that the special election was in mid-May) and will report $723,000 in the bank.

— FL-27: Republican Maria Elvira Salazar raised $550,000 and has over $1.2 million in the bank.

— TX-21: Democrat Wendy Davis raised over $1.4 million and has $2.8 million in cash on hand.

— TX-22: Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni raised $950,000 and has more than $1.1 million in the bank.

FIRST IN SCORE — ON THE AIRWAVES — Republican Kat Cammack, who is running in the crowded primary to replace GOP Rep. Ted Yoho in FL-03, is out with her first TV ad of the cycle. "My opponents are a lot like career politicians in D.C.: chicken," Cammack says in the ad, as chickens with little ties on run by. The ad is a bio spot that's backed by six-figures.

— Majority Forward, the nonprofit run by Democrats focused on the Senate, is going up with a $3 million buy in Georgia attacking GOP Sen. David Perdue, hitting him on health care. More from Campaign Pro's James Arkin (for Pros): "The new buy marks the first substantial spending in Georgia from Democratic outside groups, which for months have seen the state as less competitive than key Senate battlegrounds like Arizona, Maine and North Carolina. But Georgia is now getting increasing attention from both parties, with millions of dollars set to pour into the state."

Democrat Jon Ossoff is out with his first ad for the general election as well. The ad highlights Ossoff's investigative journalism company. "I lead a business that investigates corruption for news organizations worldwide," he said in the ad. "Truth is, corruption is why politicians let health insurance companies rip off our families, and polluters poison our air and water."

— Democrat Mark Kelly is out with a pair of TV ads in Arizona. One ad if focused on the economy during the coronavirus rebuild and the other is about health care during the pandemic.

— The RGA's Right Direction PAC is up with a new ad in Montana, a quick turnaround criticizing Democratic Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney for violating state ethics laws earlier in the week.

— Missing from a lot of incumbent battleground senators' ads? Trump. "In their campaign ads back home, it's as if the unpopular incumbent president doesn't exist, as Republicans choose instead to highlight their own achievements or go on the attack against their Democratic challengers," The Washington Post's Seung Min Kim wrote.

FIRST IN SCORE — (INTERNAL) POLL POSITION — A poll from BOLD PAC, the political arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, has Candace Valenzuela, whom they have endorsed, up in the TX-24 Democratic primary runoff. In the Data for Progress poll, Valenzuela is at 52 percent to Kim Olson's 37 percent, with leaners included (440 likely primary runoff voters; July 2-7; +/- 4.7 percentage point MoE).

— Republican Manny Sethi, who is running against the Trump-backed Bill Hagerty for the GOP nomination for the open Tennessee Senate seat, released a poll showing a close race. The poll from Victory Phones has Hagerty at 33 percent to 31 percent for Sethi. (800 likely voters; June 30-July 1; +/- 3.46 percentage point MoE).

PRIMARY PROBLEMS — Antone Melton-Meaux, an attorney primarying freshman Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) in MN-05, has raised oodles of money. HuffPost's Daniel Marans has a look at the race, writing that pro-Israel groups have helped raise a lot of money for Melton-Meaux. (He raised at least $1.5 million in May alone.)

— Freshman Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib, who is facing a primary from Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones, is up with a TV ad focused on constituent services. There was the unusual situation in the midterms when Jones won a special election to serve in Congress for a couple months, but Tlaib won the regular election for the full term.

— Rep. Joe Kennedy, who is primarying Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), is out with a new ad . The ad doesn't make an explicit mention of Markey, but takes an indirect jab at him. "The most powerful nation on earth, turns out, has left so many behind. If you think this is as good as we could possibly be, then great, vote for the status quo. But if you believe that we actually can do better, this has to be the moment."

A new super PAC is backing Markey and plans on spending $900,000 supporting him, per the State House News Service's Matt Murphy.

WADING IN — Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) is having a grand ole' time wading into the Texas Democratic Senate runoff between MJ Hegar and Royce West. His campaign's latest move is releasing a new TV ad, calling West a "liberal politician who stood with Wendy Davis," along with attacking West over abortion, James reported. The Cornyn campaign also released a poll earlier on Thursday that showed Hegar with a narrow lead over West.

THE HOUSE MAP — Freshman Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin was part of the Democratic wave in the midterms, and she's perhaps one of the most endangered incumbents, representing a district that Trump carried by 7 points in 2016. POLITICO Magazine's Tim Alberta has his first story in a series that'll look at the 2020 election through the eyes of Slotkin, and voters in her Lansing-based MI-08.

THE PROCESS — After a bad primary, the Georgia Secretary of state's office is working with county officials to plug holes ahead of November. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Mark Niesse and Amanda Coyne have more on the state's efforts to recover.

— South Carolina election officials agreed to pay for postage for absentee ballots following a lawsuit from Democrats, per The Post and Courier's Jamie Lovegrove.

— D.C. residents imprisoned for felonies will be allowed to vote in November, DCist's Martin Austermuhle reported.

THE MAP LINES — Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, named three former judges to select the members of the state's new redistricting commission and opened applications, the Wisconsin State Journal's Mitchell Schmidt reported.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "If I can say it to Whoopi Goldberg, I can say it to the president." — Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) on sharing his views supporting Roger Stone, to POLITICO.

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