Monday, July 20, 2020

What we’re watching for in today’s reporting deadline — Dems drop election lawsuit in Florida — GOP picks Freitas in VA-07

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Score is your guide to the year-round campaign cycle.
Jul 20, 2020 View in browser
 
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By Zach Montellaro

Editor's Note: Weekly Score is a weekly version of POLITICO Pro's daily Campaigns policy newsletter, Morning Score. POLITICO Pro is a policy intelligence platform that combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.

Quick Fix

— Monday marks the deadline for monthly filers to report their June fundraising numbers. Here's what we're watching for.

— Priorities USA and other Democratic groups dropped a lawsuit in Florida, ending a major legal battle in the state in what amounts largely to a win for Republicans.

— Republicans in VA-07 picked state Del. Nick Freitas to be their nominee in a convention over the weekend. He'll face freshman Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger in the Richmond-area battleground district.

Good Monday morning. Email me at zmontellaro@politico.com and follow me on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the rest of the POLITICO campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @JamesArkin and @allymutnick.

Days until the Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington primaries: 15

Days until the Tennessee primary: 17

Days until the Democratic convention: 28

Days until the Republican convention: 35

Days until the 2020 election: 106

TopLine

THE CASH DASH — It is one of the fun months when we have two filing deadlines. Today's the deadline for monthly filers — namely presidential candidates, party committees and some super PACs — and there are still a lot of big questions. Here's a few things we're watching out for.

What are the presidential candidates spending money on? One of the biggest points of comparison has already been revealed — how much money each camp has in the bank. But we still don't have a good look at what, exactly, the presidential campaigns are spending their money on. We'll get a look at that today, when both President Donald Trump's and Joe Biden's campaigns file their reports with the FEC. (Their respective joint fundraising committees filed last week.)

Has super PAC fundraising in the battle for Congress ramped up? As we get closer and closer to Election Day, the environment for Democrats in both chambers has gotten more favorable — but with less than four months to go, nothing is etched into stone. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the Republican super PAC focused on the House, remains a quarterly filer, so we already have their numbers — and they raised a boatload. Will House Democrats' House Majority PAC keep pace? And how will the Senate Leadership Fund and Senate Majority PAC do?

How is party fundraising going? The DCCC has already announced what it raised for the quarter (and, consequently, what it raised in June), but we haven't heard anything yet from the other party committees. Committees have also started to spend money in earnest for the top battleground races as well, so their spending will also be important.

How much money is coming in online? WinRed, the Republican online fundraising platform, easily had its best second quarter ever, with $275 million flowing through the platform in the quarter. And now, we have ActBlue numbers. ActBlue, the Democratic behemoth, announced that 5.7 million unique donors collectively gave $710 million through the platform in Q2 2020, setting new records in basically every category for the platform. This isn't an apples-to-apples comparison between WinRed and ActBlue — the ActBlue numbers include money to nonprofits which also use the platform, for example — but there's a heck of a lot of money flowing for Democrats online. ActBlue said contributions to House and Senate candidates were up two-and-a-half times in Q2 2020 compared to Q2 2018.

 

HAPPENING WEDNESDAY – COVID-19 AND CALIFORNIA'S HOUSING CRISIS : Tens of thousands of Californians bounce from one place to another, living in overcrowded housing in impoverished neighborhoods, in cars, or on the streets. How has Covid-19 exacerbated this already critical issue? Join POLITICO reporters Joanne Kenen and Victoria Colliver and a lineup of expert guests for a virtual conversation on what role social determinants of health, like housing, will have in post-Covid-19 recovery efforts in California. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
Presidential Big Board

POLLS POLLS POLLS — A pair of national polls continues the trend of bringing great (or in the case of one of the polls, merely very good) news for Biden. But before we get to them, how should you take these polls? Campaign Pro chief Steve Shepard has four tips for you to keep in mind as you look at them: Put Biden's lead in historical perspective (it's good!), Biden already seems to be "defined," it is all about the pandemic and don't misinterpret the enthusiasm gap.

— On to the polls: In a Washington Post/ABC News poll , Biden is up 55 percent to 40 percent among registered voters, (845 registered voters; July 12-15; +/- 4 percentage point MoE). Among likely voters, it is 54 percent for Biden to 44 percent for Trump. (God bless pollsters trying to figure out likely voters in this environment.)

— The Fox News poll is the one that brings only really good news, which has Biden at 49 percent to 41 percent for Trump (1,104 registered voters; July 12-15; +/- 3 percentage point MoE).

COALITION BUILDING? — Trump's campaign is pouring millions into a campaign to try to soften Biden's support among voters of color in swing states. POLITICO's Holly Otterbein : "It's a sign that Trump aides, while struggling to find a consistent and effective line of attack against Biden, have settled on at least one strategy: dilute Biden's strength among minority voters."

— BlackPAC, a super PAC focused on engaging Black voters, is launching a seven-figure campaign in Michigan and North Carolina. The campaign includes a TV ad, which encourages voters to reject Trump. The ad will run for roughly two months.

THE SUNSHINE STATE — Some Florida Democrats fret that they're watching a slow motion repeat of 2016 from Biden and the state party. "Several county chairs called moves by the state party and the campaign 'demoralizing' and 'frustrating,'" POLITICO Florida's Gary Fineout wrote (for Pros). "They bemoaned a lack of communication and said that field organizers who had been deployed in recent months were being shifted to other locations and being replaced by less-experienced people."

NOT FLASHY — Biden is running a campaign that seemingly has the motto "do no harm," The New York Times Astead Herndon wrote: "After the 2016 election, [Hillary] Clinton was lambasted for running a risk-averse campaign that seemed to rely on voters finding Mr. Trump's conduct inherently repugnant. Four years later, facing a changed electoral landscape, many Wisconsin Democrats think Mr. Biden can win the state with that exact playbook."

 

JOIN THURSDAY AT 1:30 p.m. EDT – A GLOBAL RALLYING CRY: The Black Lives Matter movement has gone global with anti-racism protests sweeping cities around the world. What does the racial reckoning look like abroad? Join Global Translations author Ryan Heath for a conversation on how the fight for equality has become a worldwide rallying cry following the killing of George Floyd. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
Down the Ballot

THE PROCESS — Priorities and other left-leaning groups agreed to drop a lawsuit over Florida's voting laws on Sunday, the day before a federal trial on the suit was slated to state. Gary described the end of the case as "yet another win for Republicans in a key battleground state," where the two sides in the lawsuit negotiated an agreement that largely does not change the state's laws. The agreement "calls for Florida's chief election official to educate local election supervisors on pre-paid postage and encourage them to use drop boxes and make vote-by-mail request forms available in Spanish," and calls for Secretary of State Laurel Lee, a Republican, to undertake a public education campaign to tell voters about the different ways to vote. All of this is a "far cry" of what Democrats were originally seeking, Gary reports. (Marc Elias, the Democratic super lawyer, took issue with the idea that Republicans won out here.)

But it isn't clear if this totally ends litigation in the Sunshine State. "The notice filed with the federal court on Sunday does not mention local election supervisors who were also included as defendants," Gary wrote. "A spokesperson for Priorities USA said the group would have updates and final details Monday."

— Another major sticking point for mail voting? The cost (and effort) it takes to get stamps, and if election officials should be the one to shoulder that burden, or if voters should. Here's a good story from the AP's Julie Carr Smyth.

PICKING THE NOMINEE — Freitas, a Virginia state delegate, was picked at a convention to be the party's nominee to face Spanberger in VA-07. The Richmond Times-Dispatch's Justin Mattingly has more from the convention.

IN MEMORIAM — Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.), a towering civil rights icon who spent his career fighting for voting rights, died on Friday at 80. POLITICO's David Cohen wrote our obituary for the man who was often described as the conscience of Congress. My lasting memory of Lewis would be hearing one of his booming floor speeches in the chamber on the sanctity of voting, and how he fought his whole life for that right.

But even as the nation mourns his death, Georgia Democrats have been forced to move quickly to pick his replacement in the metro Atlanta-based GA-05. Over the weekend, potential candidates were asked to fill out a six-question application. (There also will be a special election, separate from this process.) Georgia election law requires the state party to move quickly. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein reported that state party chair Nikema Williams is the likely frontrunner to be named the party's nominee in the deep blue district.

The state party announced late Sunday that 131 people filled out the application. A nominating committee will announce everyone who applied by noon, along with 3-5 names recommended to the state executive committee, who will meet at noon to hear from the recommended candidates and ultimately pick a nominee.

FINALLY OVER — It has been a long time coming, but Jamaal Bowman has now officially defeated Democratic Rep. Eliot Engel in New York, ousting the longtime incumbent from NY-16. The state is taking an exceptionally long time to count absentee ballots (expect lawsuits over this), but the AP decided on Friday it had seen enough, more than three weeks after in-person voting. Steve and Sarah Ferris have more on Bowman's victory. (Bowman is heavily favored to win the deep blue seat in November.)

ON THE AIRWAVES — Sunflower State, the new popup super PAC in Kansas that is likely tied to Democrats, has gone up with a straight negative ad on GOP Rep. Roger Marshall ahead of the state's Senate primary. "Roger Marshall, he's a creature of the swamp, not Kansas," the ad's narrator says. Meanwhile, Free Forever PAC, which has been funded by tech billionaire Peter Thiel, is also up with a pro-Kris Kobach ad in the race.

In a very meta commercial, Marshall is running his own ad highlighting the fact that a Democratic-linked super PAC is backing Kobach.

— We have dueling ads in the KS-02 Republican primary, both tied to GOP Rep. Steve Watkins recently being charged with three voter fraud-related felonies. The ad from Watkins says it is "bogus charges against an American patriot," and alleges collusion between his primary opponent, state Treasurer Jake LaTurner, and the prosecutor. The ad from LaTurner is basically what you'd expect an ad from a challenger to an incumbent charged with felonies looks like, walking through the charges and saying he is a fraud.

— FIRST IN SCORE — Duty and Honor, a 501(c)(4) associated with Majority Forward (which is run by allies to Senate Democratic leadership), is launching a $2.5 million TV and radio campaign for the entirety of August for the Montana Senate race, Campaign Pro's James Arkin writes in. The buy is about $2.5 million.

— FIRST IN SCORE — Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) released a new ad attacking Democrat Mark Kelly's business background, accusing him of having "ripped off Arizona taxpayers." The spot is a coordinated buy with the NRSC.

— We have a handful of TV ads across competitive Senate races. In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) released an ad saying she's never missed a vote, while criticizing Democrat Sara Gideon for shutting down the state legislature. Majority Forward is out with an ad criticizing Collins for "protecting" Trump over the coronavirus.

The NRSC also released a pair of ads, one criticizing Democrat Cal Cunningham over taxes in North Carolina and another hitting Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock over health care in Montana.

— GOP Rep. John Katko is up with a new ad in NY-24, going negative on Democratic nominee Dana Balter, calling her dishonest and dangerous.

— We got another pop up super PAC, this time in the open GOP Senate primary in Tennessee. The ad from Standing With Conservatives attacks Republican Manny Sethi for donating "to a Democrat PAC that supports progressives." (This is based on misconstruing what ActBlue is.) You'll be shocked to learn that this super PAC was created in early July, meaning they likely won't have to file a report before the Aug. 6 primary.

PRIMARY PROBLEMS — Two members of "the Squad" are facing spirited primary challenges. In Detroit, freshman Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib is facing a challenge from City Council President Brenda Jones. (In a weird twist, Tlaib won the nomination for a full term in the midterms in MI-13, while Jones won the primary for a special election to serve for a few weeks during the last lame duck. The primaries were held concurrently.) The New York Times' Luke Broadwater and Kathleen Gray have a deep dive on the race.

— And in Minneapolis, a primary challenger to freshman Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar has quietly raised millions to challenge her. The Minneapolis Star Tribune's Briana Bierschbach has the latest on the race in MN-05, where attorney Antone Melton-Meaux is trying to unseat her.

LOOKING LIKE AMERICA — Candidates of color are still grappling with deeply-rooted barriers to their candidacies. They're "still battling lingering effects of systemic racism — including skewed perceptions of 'viability,' tougher fundraising and some hesitation from the party establishment," Sarah and Marianne LeVine wrote. "And they say it's those same deep-rooted racial barriers that have allowed Congress to remain a predominantly white, male and privileged institution centuries after its founding, according to interviews with more than two dozen candidates of color, lawmakers and strategists."

(INTERNAL) POLL POSITION — A poll from the Congressional Leadership Fund, the GOP super PAC, has freshman Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams trailing in his reelection. The poll from Moore Information Group has Republican Burgess Owens at 43 percent, to 34 percent for Ben McAdams and 5 percent for Libertarian John Molnar (400 likely voters; July 8-9 & 11, +/- 5 percentage point MoE).

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "We also do well with bikers, NASCAR fans, NFL, college and high school tailgaters, golfers, aviators, RV people, campers, [and] homeowners." — John McLaughlin, one of Trump's pollsters, listing off groups the president performs well with to The Daily Beast.

 

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