| | | | | |  | | By Zach Montellaro | Presented by the United States Postal Service | Editor's Note: Weekly Score is a weekly version of POLITICO Pro's daily Campaigns policy newsletter, Morning Score. POLITICO Pro is a policy intelligence platform that combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.
| | | — Dark money groups are soon projected to pass $1 billion in reported spending since the Citizens United Supreme Court decision. But their reach is likely much more extensive than that. — A handful of new battleground polls released over the weekend shows Joe Biden leading in a variety of states, but President Donald Trump remains within striking distance. — Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold, a Democrat, sued the USPS over a mailing that the Postal Service sent to every American, saying the information on it is confusing for voters in universal vote-by-mail states and could potentially suppress the vote. Good Monday morning. Email me at zmontellaro@politico.com and follow him on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro. POLITICO has more programming coming up next week for "POLITICO Live from The Texas Tribune Festival," including conversations with Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas), Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Alexis McGill Johnson, president of Planned Parenthood. Click through for more details! Email the rest of the POLITICO campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @JamesArkin and @allymutnick. Days until the Delaware primary: 1 Days until the first presidential debate: 15 Days until the vice-presidential debate: 23 Days until the 2020 election: 50 | | | | A message from the United States Postal Service: The paradigm shift in the electorate and the political landscape has ushered in a new era of political campaigning. As political media continues to transform, standing out and capturing voters' attention has become more challenging than ever. With election season in full swing, your opportunity exists in combining direct mail with digital elements so you can break through the political media clutter and make an impact on today's voters. Find out in the e-book. | | | | | | SHOW ME THE MONEY — We're going to surpass a major campaign finance milestone this cycle: $1 billion in reported dark money spending since the 2010 Citizens United decision from the Supreme Court that threw the door open for untraceable political spending. Since 2010, groups that are not required to disclose their donors (which are largely 501(c)(4) "social welfare organizations," a reference to the part of the tax code that grants these groups nonprofit status) have spent $996 million in election-related expenditures, according to an analysis from the good governance group Issue One and campaign finance number crunchers at the Center for Responsive Politics, including $33 million so far this cycle. But the reach of dark money groups is likely much, much more extensive than even that eye-popping $1 billion mark that we'll soon hit. That's only $1 billion in direct spending that's been reported to the Federal Election Commission — which is either independent expenditures, or any electioneering communication in a short window before elections. Ads and other communications that are carefully crafted to not trigger reporting requirements outside of that window adds an untold amount of more spending to that total. A recent estimate from CRP and the Wesleyan Media Project estimates that dark money groups have spent roughly $182 million on ads this cycle, far more than what's been disclosed to the FEC. And not even all disclosed spending is transparent on who has been funding it, or at least in any meaningful time period. Recent cycles has brought the rise of partially-disclosed spending — sometimes referred to as "grey money" — in which a super PAC discloses its donors, but receives a big chunk of their fundraising from those very same nonprofits that don't have to say who is funding them. That makes it impossible to know who is actually bankrolling the operation, even if donors are technically disclosed. And in this cycle's primaries in particular, we've seen the rise of "pop-up super PACs," which are created (or left dormant) until just before the relevant election, meaning voters don't know who is behind election expenditures until after they vote. Dark money has also become a distinctly bipartisan endeavor. Republican-aligned dark money groups used to routinely (and dramatically) outspend Democratic-tied ones. But a previous analysis from Issue One found that liberal groups outspent conservative ones for the first time in 2018, while both sides are matching each other "nearly dollar-for-dollar" ahead of this year's election. | | | | JOIN TOMORROW – A PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW WITH BIDEN CAMPAIGN MANAGER JEN O'MALLEY DILLON: Join Playbook co-authors Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman for a virtual interview with Joe Biden's campaign manager, Jen O'Malley Dillon, to discuss how her team is adapting to this new election landscape, whether Bob Woodward's new bombshell book will have lasting impact on the campaign, and the Biden campaign's assessment of the state of play in the top battleground states. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | POLLS POLLS POLLS — Biden was ahead in a series of swing state polls released over the weekend. The New York Times/Siena College polls had Biden's lead ranging from within the poll's margin of error to more than double it. In Minnesota, Biden led at 50 percent to Trump's 41 percent (814 likely voters; Sept. 8-10; +/- 3.9 percentage point MoE). In New Hampshire, Biden was at 45 percent to 42 percent for Trump (445 likely voters; Sept. 8-11; +/- 5.5 percentage point MoE). In Nevada, Biden sat at 46 percent, to 42 percent for Trump (462 likely voters; Sept. 8-10; +/- 5.3 percentage point MoE). And in Wisconsin, Biden led 48 percent to 43 percent for the president (760 likely voters; Sept. 8-10; +/- 4.7 percentage point MoE). We also had a pair of CBS News/YouGov polls. The Minnesota poll was identical to the NYT/Siena poll, with Biden leading 50 percent to 41 percent (1,087 likely voters; Sept. 9-11; +/- 3.6 percentage point MoE). And In Arizona, Biden was at 47 percent to 44 percent for Trump (1,106 likely voters; Sept. 9-11; 3.9 percentage point MoE) — Fox News was also out with its first national poll in a little bit, which has Biden at 51 percent and Trump at 46 percent (1,191 likely voters; Sept. 7-10; +/- 2.5 percentage point MoE). THE SUNSHINE STATE — Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg's super PAC Independence USA will launch a $100 million campaign in Florida to boost Biden and hammer Trump, POLITICO's Marc Caputo reported. Marc notes that mail ballots are going out on Sept. 24 to domestic voters, and even earlier for overseas voters. DEMS IN DISARRAY? — Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has privately "expressed concerns" about Biden's campaign, The Washington Post's Sean Sullivan reported, citing "three people with knowledge of the conversations." In a statement, Faiz Shakir, who ran Sanders' campaign, said that the Vermonter is working "as hard as he can" to help Biden win and that "he has been in direct contact with the Biden team and has urged them to put more emphasis on how they will raise wages, create millions of good paying jobs, lower the cost of prescription drugs and expand health care coverage." RELIGIOUS RIGHT? — Mormon voters largely rejected Trump in 2016, and now his campaign is "going all-out to change their minds — a little-noticed effort that could make or break him in Arizona and Nevada, home to more than a half-million Latter-day Saints combined," POLITICO's Alex Thompson and Laura Barrón-López reported, with Biden's camp also targeting them in those states as well. MAILING IT IN — Republicans close to the Trump campaign worry that the president's criticism of voting-by-mail, which they've encouraged him to tone down to largely no avail, will lead infrequent voters who may be supporters to sit out, POLITICO's Anita Kumar reported. "He should be encouraging people to do it, if that makes them feel more comfortable," Karl Rove, who is informally advising the campaign, told Anita. PANDEMIC POLITICS — Biden's campaign has obsessively worked to prevent the former vice president from contracting the coronavirus — both to protect the septuagenarian's health and to present the campaign as a model of good behavior, POLITICO's Chris Cadelago and Natasha Korecki wrote. RALLY TIME — Trump spent the weekend in Nevada, hosting rallies in the Silver State. (His rally just outside of Las Vegas on Sunday was indoors.) Trump "set the tone early on" at his rally on Saturday, POLITICO's Gabby Orr reported from Minden, Nev., "warning that he was prepared to 'be really vicious' in the final weeks of the presidential campaign." | | | |   | | | | | | THE PROCESS — An unusual situation bubbled up over the weekend out of Colorado. During a hearing on the Hill last month, Postmaster General Louis DeJoy said that the USPS would be sending a mailer to every American on voting by mail. Those have started to go out (a POLITICO editor in the D.C.-area got it, for example), The mailer appears to be universal across the country, and Griswold, the Colorado secretary of state, is unhappy because it gives advice that isn't applicable to universal vote-by-mail states. It tells voters to request a ballot and says they're "often called 'absentee' ballot[s]." "The USPS is confusing our voters by telling them to request a ballot," she tweeted on Friday evening, saying secretaries of state asked DeJoy to review the mailer, "but he refused." Other states with universal vote-by-mail said they were caught flat-footed by the mailer as well. "The Office of the Secretary of State and county election officials were not made aware this mailer would be sent to Washington residents, nor were we apprised of its content," read a statement from the office of Washington Secretary of State Kim Wyman, a Republican. "By the time we learned of the mailer and reached out to the postal service to inquire further, the mailers were already in the mail stream." Wyman encouraged Washington voters to visit her website for election information. Griswold filed suit to prevent the Postal Service from continuing to send the mailer, and a federal judge granted a temporary restraining order preventing the USPS from sending more in the state (which the government is appealing). You can read more from within the state from The Denver Post's Sam Tabachnik. David Rupert, a postal service spokesman, said in an email to The Post that the mailer was "designed to reach and inform all voters about the importance of planning ahead if they plan to vote by mail." — A federal appeals court ruled that a Florida law that blocked former felons from registering to vote until they paid off court debt and fees was constitutional, "finding that a 2019 state law designed to curtail a successful ballot measure still created a clear path," POLITICO Florida's Arek Sarkissian reported. The ruling, which followed an appeal by GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis after a lower court largely gutted the law, was decried by voting rights groups. The decision "will leave thousands of [former] felons off Florida's voting rolls on Election Day," Arek wrote. — Forty-six of Montana's 56 counties have opted to have an all-mail general election, MTN News' Mike Dennison reported, with GOP candidates like Sen. Steve Daines and freshman Rep. Greg Gianforte (who is running for governor) lobbying for large Republican-leaning counties to use mail-in ballots even as Republicans sue to prevent it. THE DEBATE STAGE — Senate debate szn is here. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Democrat Sara Gideon met for their first debate on Friday (and were joined by two longshot candidates), where they clashed "over health care, and President Donald Trump," the Bangor Daily News' Jessica Piper wrote. (Collins denied to say for whom she'll vote for president.) POLL POSITION — The NYT/Siena poll also tested the Minnesota Senate race and found Democratic Sen. Tina Smith at 49 percent to 40 percent for former GOP Rep. Jason Lewis. The CBS/YouGov poll has Smith at 47 percent to Lewis' 40 percent, while the CBS/YouGov Arizona poll had Democrat Mark Kelly at 49 percent to 42 percent for GOP Sen. Martha McSally. | | | | HAPPENING WEDNESDAY - HOW WILL WE RETURN TO AIR TRAVEL? Air travel has been significantly disrupted by the coronavirus pandemic. The decline in passengers has cost billions — an unprecedented blow to the economy, at home and abroad. As Congress mulls granting an extension in payroll assistance in the CARES Act to U.S. airlines, join CEOs Patrick Steel of POLITICO and Scott Kirby of United Airlines for a virtual conversation about the future of air travel and what it will take to get Americans back into the sky. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | ON THE AIRWAVES — More ads, folks. — FIRST IN SCORE — ME-Sen: 1820 PAC, a pro-Collins super PAC, is out with another ad attacking Gideon over taxes. "Gideon wants to go to Washington, where she pledges to raise your taxes yet again," the ad's narrator says. "Maine can't afford the ride with Sara Gideon." It is part of a new, nearly $1 million buy. — AZ-Sen: McSally has an ad with a veteran attacking Kelly, saying he is "going along with the mob." (There is also a 30-second cut of the ad.) Kelly has a whole bunch of new ads. One ad says McSally is lying about Kelly, and attacks her on health care. In a second ad, he talks about his military and space experience, with another ad striking a similar theme. A fourth ad has Kelly talking about surprise billings. Senate Leadership Fund is out with an ad attacking Kelly for investing in Chinese companies. Senate Majority PAC has an ad attacking McSally on health care. — CO-Sen: Former Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper is out with an ad with a retired Denver fire chief praising him for supporting the department. — GA-Sen: GOP Sen. David Perdue and the NRSC is out with an ad attacking Democrat Jon Ossoff, calling him "privileged" and "inexperienced," while the narrator praises Perdue. SMP is out with an ad attacking Perdue over stock trading, saying he turned "the U.S. Senate into his own personal Wall Street trading floor." — IA-Sen: GOP Sen. Joni Ernst released an ad with a wounded veteran praising her for her support during his recovery: "Joni helped me walk again. She's the real deal." The GOP super PAC Plains PAC is out with an ad attacking Democrat Theresa Greenfield over rural hospitals. — KY-Sen: Democrat Amy McGrath is out with an ad, saying she was waiting on a runway on 9/11 prepared to follow orders, while attacking Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. — ME-Sen: Collins has a new ad saying "my opponent and her allies are trying to scare Maine seniors." Gideon is out with an ad highlighting the state's breweries, with a local brewery owner praising her for helping them expand. — MT-Sen: Daines is out with an ad with a constituent praising him for the Yellowstone Gateway Protection Act. A second Daines ad has a former coal miner saying "this election is about your job," and attacking Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock. Bullock is out with an ad with veterans praising him for getting funding for a veterans home, while attacking Daines. SMP has an ad attacking Daines on health care. — NC-Sen: American Crossroads is out with an ad attacking Democrat Cal Cunningham as "just another liberal politician" and hitting him over the filibuster. — SC-Sen: GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham is out with an ad, running through various policy positions including that he "rebuilt our military" and is "standing with Israel." — TX-Sen: GOP Sen. John Cornyn is out with a Spanish-language ad, where the narrator calls him "calm, constant and effective." — MO-Gov: Stronger Missouri, the DGA-affiliated group, is out with an ad saying GOP Gov. Mike Parson treated Missouri as the "show me the money state." — NC-Gov: Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is out with an ad, attacking GOP Lt. Gov. Dan Forest for in-person fundraisers and opposing Medicaid expansion, which the ad notes happened in "Indiana when Mike Pence was governor." — AR-02: Democrat Joyce Elliot is out with a response ad to a previous TV ad from GOP Rep. French Hill, saying she supported bipartisan 9-1-1 funding. — IA-01: Freshman Democratic Rep. Abby Finkenauer is out with an ad with a local farmer praising her and saying she is fighting for them. — IA-02: Democrat Rita Hart and the DCCC are out with an ad with a cancer survivor praising Hart and attacking Repubican Mariannette Miller-Meeks. | | | | A message from the United States Postal Service: The ever-changing political landscape is having a major impact on how today's voters engage in politics. Recent shifts in media consumption are requiring political campaigns to reevaluate channels so they can meet this younger, more diverse generation where they are. But in such a noisy, oversaturated political media world that people are tuning out, it's vital for campaigns to get smart about maximizing their outreach. Today's voters expect a personalized, relevant message that enables a seamless experience across channels. Campaigns need a data-driven, integrated multi-channel strategy that can capture attention and deliver a strong, authentic message that can't be ignored. Find out in the e-book. | | | — IN-05: Democrat Christina Hale has a new ad with a teacher praising her, calling her a "champion for children." A second ad has Hale herself striking a similar tone. — MI-06: GOP Rep. Fred Upton is out with an ad attacking Democrat Jon Hoadley, with local sheriffs criticizing him. — MN-07: A coordinated buy from the NRCC and Republican Michelle Fischbach uses footage from the 9/11 terror attacks, showing fire and smoke spewing out of the World Trade Center and people running in the streets in New York, in an ad Advertising Analytics first tracked on the 19th anniversary of the attack. The ad ties Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson to fellow Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and says Fischbach is "one of us." — NJ-03: Freshman Democratic Rep. Andy Kim and the DCCC are out with a coordinated buy saying "Democrats in Congress" support various health care policies. The ad features a whole bunch of Democrats, not just Kim. — NY-22: The DCCC is out with an ad attacking former GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney, once again tying her to Spectrum Cable and attacking her over health care. — OR-04: Republican Alek Skarlatos is out with an ad highlighting former President Barack Obama's praise of him for helping stop a terror attack, while attacking Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio for calling it an "accident." — PA-01: GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is out with an ad with his former boss at the FBI praising him, while a narrator attacks Democrat Christinia Finello over law enforcement. — SC-01: Congressional Leadership Fund is out with an ad attacking freshman Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham, tying him to both House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Biden. — UT-04: Freshman Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams is out with an ad attacking Republican Burgess Owens over nuclear testing in the state. — VA-02: Freshman Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria is out with an ad attacking former GOP Rep. Scott Taylor for missing votes in the 2018 lame duck session after losing reelection. — VA-07: Freshman Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is out with an ad, attacking Republican Nick Freitas, with a narrator saying "when it comes to money in politics, Nick Freitas is part of the problem." (The ad also raises Roy Moore, who also got support from Richard Uihlein.) FIRST IN SCORE — ENDORSEMENT CORNER — The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is endorsing Republican Young Kim in CA-39. Kim is running against freshman Democratic Rep. Gil Cisneros. THE LAST FRONTIER — Alaska is not at the top of any battleground map, but a pair of Democratic-backed independents — Alyse Galvin and Al Gross — are mounting strong challenges to GOP Rep. Don Young and GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan. The New York Times' Carl Huse headed to Alaska to profile the two races, where "Sullivan conceded that Alaska had 'taken it on the chin' and agreed that the struggling economy could encourage some voters to consider a change. But he said a Democratically controlled Washington would be disastrous for his state, pointing to the Green New Deal, which would restrict energy development." STAFFING UP — Annie Clark has joined Collins' campaign as comms director for the final stretch of the election. She previously worked in the Maine senator's federal office. CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "346, I don't know what the hell — it's called 34 — what's his number? What's his deal?" — Trump ranting about Nate Silver (who runs FiveThirtyEight) at his Nevada rally. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
No comments:
Post a Comment