We Did it: Where the process is on the ballot — A sweeping look at the presidential battleground — What to watch for in the New Hampshire primary

Sep 08, 2020

Editor's Note: Weekly Score is a weekly version of POLITICO Pro's daily Campaigns policy newsletter, Morning Score. POLITICO Pro is a policy intelligence platform that combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.

Quick Fix

— Ballot initiatives could trigger sweeping changes to election processes across the country, from implementing ranked-choice voting to redistricting.

— With less than two months to go, the presidential race is coming down to the core battleground states. POLITICO dives into all of them with our new swing-state project.

— Rhode Island and New Hampshire are holding some of the last downballot primaries of the year, with three races to watch in the Granite State.

Good Tuesday morning. I hope everyone enjoyed the long weekend. If you're looking for a podcast to listen to, may I recommend the most recent Nerdcast, where I talked to PredictIt traders about the political stock market site. It's fun! Email me at zmontellaro@politico.com and follow him on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the rest of the POLITICO campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @JamesArkin and @allymutnick.

Days until the Delaware primary: 7

Days until the first presidential debate: 21

Days until the vice-presidential debate: 29

Days until the 2020 election: 56

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TopLine

ON THE BALLOT — It isn't just candidates on the ballot come November, with states across the country voting on ballot initiatives on everything from marijuana to the process of how elections are actually held. In today's Score, let's take a tour of the various electoral reform ballot initiatives that Americans will have a chance to vote on across the country.

— Ranked-choice voting: Ranked-choice voting — where voters rank their preferred candidates in order of preference, and the race goes to an instant runoff until one candidate has majority support — was first used in a federal election in Maine in 2018. (Now-former Rep. Bruce Poliquin has the dubious distinction of being the first candidate to lose this way.) According to the group FairVote, which advocates for ranked-choice voting, two states have ballot initiatives to install a statewide ranked-choice system. Alaska's Ballot Measure 2 would replace partisan primaries with an open primary where the top four finishers advance to a ranked choice general election, while Massachusetts' Question 2 would retain partisan primaries, but implement it in both primaries and the general election starting in 2022.

And all is not settled in Maine. There's an ongoing legal battle going on right now over whether there should be a ballot initiative in November on ranked-choice voting in Maine for presidential elections. (The Portland Press-Herald's Scott Thistle has more from the state Supreme Judicial Court on Thursday.) If the ballot initiative is ultimately on the ballot, ranked-choice won't be in effect for the presidential election in November, but will still apply to downballot races.

— Redistricting measures: Heading into the redistricting cycle, there are three measures worth keeping an eye on. In New Jersey, state lawmakers rushed to get a question on delaying state legislative redistricting until 2023, over concerns over census data. (Remember that New Jersey has off-year elections.) In Missouri, voters in 2018 approved a nonpartisan state "demographer" who would draw state legislative lines, and this year the GOP-dominated legislature put up a proposal to reverse many of the changes from the 2018 "Clean Missouri" proposal on which voters will decide again (here's more from the Springfield News-Leader's Austin Huguelet).

And a measure in Virginia would toss the map-drawing process from the state legislature to a redistricting commission for both congressional and state legislative districts, with the state legislature having final up-or-down approval. Some interesting politics here: The redistricting reform passed out of the General Assembly, following Democrats' takeover last fall and with a mixture of partisan support, but the state Democratic Party is urging voters to reject the idea. (Of note: The Washington Post's editorial board recently penned a piece in favor of the measure, chastising Democrats for getting "cold feet" on the reform.) There's also a lawsuit challenging the wording, per the Richmond Times-Dispatch's Mel Leonor.

— Top-two primaries: Florida's Amendment 3 would scrap partisan primaries for state offices (including the governorship and the legislature) in favor of an all-party blanket primary, not dissimilar to what California has set up for all its elections. The amendment brings some rare bipartisanship to the Sunshine State — in the fact that both state parties oppose it. It also doesn't apply to federal races.

— Puerto Rican statehood: After a 2017 statehood referendum vote was marred by abysmally low turnout and an outright boycott from one of the territories' largest political parties, Puerto Rico will once again vote again on a (nonbinding) referendum if the island should become a state. This time, the question is a simple yes-or-no choice: "¿Debe Puerto Rico ser admitido inmediatamente dentro de la Unión como un Estado?" — or "Should Puerto Rico be admitted immediately into the union as a state?" — and not include other options, like complete independence.

This isn't a comprehensive list, so if you think there's an election-related ballot initiative that I missed (or an interesting one not related to elections, which we'll cover down the road), email me and let me know!

Presidential Big Board

SWING STATE PROJECT — With less than two months to go until Election Day, the battleground map is becoming clearer and clearer. And with Labor Day in our rear-view mirror, POLITICO is focusing in on eight states where the 2020 election will be won or lost: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Click through to read detailed stories on the state of the race in each of the battlegrounds from POLITICO's team of reporters deployed throughout the country.

MESSAGING MATTERS — President Donald Trump and his allies are trying another reboot of their economic message. "With minimal hope for further coronavirus relief from Congress, the White House is pressing ahead with a revised pitch to voters at the outset of the fall campaign season: American grit will keep the economy afloat, not the government," POLITICO's Gabby Orr reported from La Crosse, Wis., where Vice President Mike Pence appeared at a power cooperative.

— Team Trump is drawing its sights on Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), hoping to bruise Joe Biden's running mate to soften up the ticket's support. "The president and his allies are plotting ways to portray Harris as a serious threat to the working-class voters whom Biden hopes to flip this fall," Gabby wrote.

DATA DUMP — Democrats have finally started the Democratic Data Exchange, "a legally independent entity that allows campaigns, state parties, super PACs and other independent groups that are forbidden to coordinate with each other to share information on individual voters," The New York Times' Reid Epstein reported, trailing a similar Republicans' data setup by years. (In an interview with The Times, DNC chair Tom Perez amusingly describes the operation that he took over as "a Radio Shack.")

— Trump's campaign is leaning into YouTube this cycle, pouring millions into ads on the platform while creating platform-specific programming, POLITICO's Alex Thompson wrote.

POLLS POLLS POLLS — A Dallas Morning News/UT Tyler poll shows a tight race in Texas. The poll has Trump at 48 percent to Biden's 46 percent (901 likely voters; Aug. 28-Sept. 2; +/- 3.26 percentage point MoE). An early July poll gave Biden a narrow, 5-point lead, showing some movement to Trump.

— A CBS News/YouGov poll gives Biden a narrow lead in Wisconsin. The poll has Biden at 50 percent to 44 percent for the president (978 likely voters; Sept. 2-4; +/- 3.7 percentage point MoE). A national poll has Biden up by a wider margin, 52 percent to 42 percent (2,433 likely voters; Sept. 2-4; +/- 2.4 percentage point MoE).

SUBURBIA — Democrats are worrying about the suburbs. "Interviews with more than two dozen Democratic Party officials and strategists in the suburbs reflect confidence in Biden's ability to compete with Trump on issues surrounding this summer's civil unrest, but also widespread concerns about the political volatility — and potential allure — of the president's law-and-order message," POLITICO's David Siders wrote.

THE CASH DASH — Trump's cash advantage seemed at one point insurmountable. But now, it has likely slipped away. The New York Times' Shane Goldmacher and Maggie Haberman have a deep dive into how the president's campaign is spending (and raising) money, including the president's apparent aversion to virtual fundraisers.

IN THE COURTS? — The Trump campaign filed a federal lawsuit seeking to block New Jersey's predominantly mail election in November, but "the Trump campaign has not taken any additional steps to actually stop the state's plans," POLITICO New Jersey's Matt Friedman reported, noting that there are no hearings on the merits of the lawsuit scheduled.

ON THE AIRWAVES — A new ad from Trump promises that "the finish line is approaching" for a coronavirus vaccine , while attacking Biden on the economy.

YEEZUS IN CHIEF? — Kanye West filed his first FEC report, revealing that his campaign is almost entirely self-funded. He loaned his campaign nearly $6.8 million, with just over $11,000 coming in from outside contributions, I wrote. The vast majority of his expenses are ballot access.

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Down the Ballot

PRIMARY NIGHT — New Hampshire and Rhode Island are having their primaries tonight. The three races we're watching are all taking place in New Hampshire, where polls close between 7 p.m. and 8 p.m., depending on the town clerk. First up is the Democratic primary to face GOP Gov. Chris Sununu, pitting state Senate Majority Leader Dan Feltes against Executive Councilor Andru Volinsky. A recent UNH poll has the two deadlocked in the high-thirties for the nomination, with Sununu leading both of them comfortably in the general election.

In the state's GOP Senate primary, Trump-endorsed attorney Corky Messner is going up against Don Bolduc, a retired Army brigadier general. The UNH poll gave Messner the lead over Bolduc, but both trailed Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen by sizable margins. And in NH-01, a five person Republican field is vying to face freshman Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas. The Trump-backed Matt Mowers is the favorite in a field that also includes Matt Mayberry.

COUNTING HEADS — A federal judge issued a temporary restraining order that ordered the Census Bureau to "stop winding down in-person counting efforts for the 2020 census" in a lawsuit brought by the National Urban League, NPR's Hansi Lo Wang reported. The TRO is expected to stay into effect until a Sept. 17 hearing on the lawsuit that seeks to extend counting through the end of October. The Census Bureau put out a brief statement saying the bureau is complying and that "enumeration will continue."

GOING POSTAL — Former employees of Louis DeJoy, who is now postmaster general, said they felt pressured to make donations to Republican candidates that were later reimbursed through company bonuses, The Washington Post's Aaron Davis, Amy Gardner and Jon Swaine reported, which — if accurate — would amount to an illegal straw donor scheme. In a statement to The Post, DeJoy spokesperson Monty Hagler said that the now-postmaster general was unaware that employees felt pressure and that he "believes that he has always followed campaign fundraising laws and regulations."

TAR HEEL BRAWL — GOP Sen. Thom Tillis has a simple message for some voters wary of him: It's me, or Senate *Majority* Leader Chuck Schumer. Campaign Pro's James Arkin reported from Bolivia, N.C., on the climb the incumbent senator has, where Democrat Cal Cunningham has consistently led him in public polling. From James: "Tillis' numbers are weaker than Trump's, but both parties expect a tight race in one of the most polarized states in the nation come November. 'It's probably going to be however Trump goes, Tillis goes,' said GOP consultant Charles Hellwig, who briefly worked for Tillis' would-be primary challenger before the candidate dropped out."

— Tillis and Cunningham are also out with new ads. Tillis ad's remind voters that Cunningham had already ran for the Senate (and lost) and attacks him over taxes. The Cunningham ad attacks Tillis for "fail[ing] to act" over the Russian bounty scandal.

MAILING IT IN — If absentee ballot rejection rates match previous cycles, up to three times as many voters could see their votes tossed in key battleground states, according to an analysis from the AP's Christina Cassidy and Frank Bajak. A key pullout: Just 21 states have defined cure processes in place.

— House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is warning that Republicans could lose if they don't promote vote-by-mail, and that he's tried to warn the president. "I tried to show him ... you know who is most afraid of COVID? Seniors. And if they're not going to go vote, period, we're screwed," McCarthy told Axios' Alayna Treene.

ON THE AIRWAVES — Tomorrow, we'll run the slate of new ads we're expecting in a separate ad rundown, just for Pros. But until then, the holiday weekend ads:

— FIRST IN SCORE — CFG Action: Club for Growth Action is going up with a handful of new ads. An ad from the group's Montana arm in the state's Senate race tries to attack Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock for lobbying for the oft-attacked Export-Import Bank, saying it is "financing terrorist-friendly governments" like in Pakistan. (Ex-Im is an arm of the U.S. government.) It is going on satellite for $248,000 from Sept. 8 through Election Day.

An ad in MT-AL ties Democrat Kathleen Williams to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi with "San Francisco values," the beginning of a $2.25 million buy. And in CO-03, an ad ties Diane Mitsch Bush to "ski town liberals" who are "living easy in luxury," part of a $216,000 satellite buy from Sept. 8 through Election Day. The Club is also launching a positive digital ad boosting Republican Rich McCormick in GA-07.

— FIRST IN SCORE — The Chamber: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is out with its first ad in the Montana Senate race, promoting GOP Sen. Steve Daines. "Daines is working to secure $3.5 billion for workforce recovery," the ad says, praising his pandemic response. The buy is just under $500,000 and will run statewide and for 10 days on satellite, cable, digital and OTT.

— FIRST IN SCORE — HMP: House Majority PAC, the House Democratic super PAC, is up with a new ad. One ad attacks freshman GOP Rep. Chip Roy over Gold Star families. "Chip Roy was one of only three members of Congress to vote against tax relief for Gold Star families," the ad's narrator says. "Chip Roy had no problem with tax breaks for Wall Street banks, pharmaceutical companies and corporations that ship jobs overseas." It is backed by a $336,000 buy. A second HMP ad lands in UT-04, attacking Republican nominee Burgess Owens. It is backed by a $345,000 buy. "Records show a trail of Owens not paying his debts in multiple states, over multiple decades," the ad's narrator says.

— FIRST IN SCORE — EDF Action: EDF Action Votes is launching a TV buy attacking Republican Nick Freitas: "The pandemic is far from over, but Nick Freitas is still putting special interests before Virginians." The ad is backed by a $274,000 buy.

— AL-Sen: Democratic Sen. Doug Jones is out with an ad attacking Republican Tommy Tuberville over a former hedge fund and a ponzi scheme, with a supporter saying he "has no financial judgement."

— CO-Sen: GOP Sen. Cory Gardner is out with an ad with a woman praising Gardner for his work creating a national suicide hotline.

— KS-Sen: GOP Rep. Roger Marshall is out with an ad attacking Democrat Barbara Bollier for having a "liberal record."

— ME-Sen: The NRSC released an ad attacking Democrat Sara Gideon over the PPP program and coronavirus release. Gideon released an ad, a generic positive spot in which she talks about making the difference.

— MT-Sen: Bullock released an ad with a union worker praising him for helping them during a strike, while saying Daines did not help. Bullock also released an ad talking about helping Main Street businesses. Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP super PAC, released an ad criticizing Bullock's presidential run, saying he shorted taxpayers on security costs.

— IN-Gov: GOP Gov. Eric Holcomb is out with an ad talking about bridging the "digital divide" in the state, investing in broadband infrastructure.

— AK-AL: GOP Rep. Don Young is out with an ad touting his effectiveness, while tying his opponent, Alyse Galvin, to Pelosi.

— CO-03: Republican Lauren Boebert released an ad attacking Pelosi and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) over the Second Amendment and other issues.

— FL-18: GOP Rep. Brian Mast is out with an ad saying he is fighting for clean water.

— GA-06: Freshman Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath is out with an ad tying former GOP Rep. Karen Handel to Trump, highlighting the president praising her.

— IA-02: Democrat Rita Hart is out with a new ad, talking about her mother and health care.

— KS-03: Freshman Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids said she's working to get "Covid aid for small businesses" in a new ad.

— PA-08: Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright is out with an ad with a former local police chief praising him over law enforcement issues, with a narrator saying Republican Jim Bognet lied.

— ME-02: Freshman Democratic Rep. Jared Golden is out with an ad with a pair of men, one a Republican and one a Democrat, "arguing" over why they each support him. Golden also has an ad with a Maine lobsterman praising him for working with Trump.

— MO-02: Democrat Jill Schupp released an ad with a former Republican mayor praising her.

— TX-23: Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones is out with an ad with her and other veterans talking about their military service.

— TX-32: Republican Genevieve Collins is out with her first general election ad. "The pandemic isn't the only thing hurting main street these days. It's the fact Congress can't solve a single problem," she says in the ad.

WEB WARS — We have some fake news Facebook pages down in South Carolina. Both Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and his Democratic opponent, Jaime Harrison, are running secondary pages that have all the trappings of a local news website — except they're controlled and paid for by the respective campaigns. The page run by Harrison is called South Carolina Signal, complete with an eagle stylized like an American flag, while Graham is running SC FYI: Elections. Both campaigns are running ads on the pages, and Pros can read more in my weekly Facebook ad roundup.

TECH TALK — A potential disastrous side effect of Facebook banning new political ads in the week before the election: Election officials, like secretaries of state or local boards of elections, also won't be able to buy ads, ProPublica's Jeremy Merrill reported. More: "Facebook told ProPublica that it's sticking to its decision to include election-administration ads in the ban, but has offered to help administrators change their pages to be able to use Voting Alerts and says it's considering ways to show the alerts more broadly."

POLL POSITION — The DMN/UTT poll in Texas also polled the Senate race, showing GOP Sen. John Cornyn with a lead. The poll has Cornyn at 39 percent to 28 percent for Democrat MJ Hegar.

— A fascinating story on the actual business side of voting by mail from The California Sunday Magazine's Jesse Barron, pulling back the curtain a bit on the suppliers for mail ballots.

CODA — 'TOO ON THE NOSE' HEADLINE OF THE DAY: "Hundreds rally but five boats sink in Lake Travis parade for Trump" — from the Austin American-Statesman.

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