| | | | | |  | | By Zach Montellaro | Editor's Note: Weekly Score is a weekly version of POLITICO Pro's daily Campaigns policy newsletter, Morning Score. POLITICO Pro is a policy intelligence platform that combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.
| | | — The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg just weeks before Election Day has upended the race for the White House and the battle for control of the Senate. — A Michigan state court extended the state's mail-ballot deadline, requiring that ballots postmarked by Nov. 2 and received within 14 days are counted. It is unclear if the ruling will be appealed. — After Republicans dominated in local elections right before the last redistricting cycle, Democrats are pushing to gain footholds in two states: Texas and North Carolina. Good Monday morning. We've reached an important milestone: Saturday was UOCAVA Day — 45 days out from the election, when states are required by federal law to send ballots to military and overseas voters. (Or at least the states not in a legal battle.) Email me at zmontellaro@politico.com and follow me on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro. POLITICO has more programming coming up this week for "POLITICO Live from The Texas Tribune Festival," including conversations with Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas), Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Alexis McGill Johnson, president of Planned Parenthood. Click through for more details! Email the rest of the POLITICO campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com, amutnick@politico.com and srodriguez@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @JamesArkin, @allymutnick and@sabrod123. Days until the first presidential debate: 8 Days until the vice-presidential debate: 16 Days until the 2020 election: 43
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Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg in her chambers in Washington, Aug. 23, 2013. | Hilary Swift/The New York Times/Redux Images | THE HIGH COURT — Ginsburg's death just weeks before Election Day has thrown an unexpected swerve into an already fraught election, recentering at least a chunk of the conversation around two central questions: Who will President Donald Trump name to replace the late liberal icon, and will Senate Republicans ultimately go along with the nomination in the final stretch before the election? The nominee will be brought in front of the Senate fairly soon. Trump and his team are weighing their options now, POLITICO's Anita Kumar, Marc Caputo and Gabby Orr reported on Saturday, with a name coming as soon as the middle of the week. (Among the top names mentioned are U.S. Appeals Court judges Amy Coney Barrett, who had already been vetted during past SCOTUS searches; Barbara Lagoa, who is a former Florida state Supreme Court justice; and Allison Jones Rushing, who if selected and confirmed would be among the youngest Supreme Court justices ever.) The push to confirm a new nominee delivered a jolt to the presidential and Senate races. Trump allies and aides see it as a "potential game-changer for their struggling campaign," Anita, Gabby and Meridith McGraw reported, with "fill that seat" becoming a chant at Trump's Saturday rally. (Here's more from Anita from Fayetteville, N.C.). Joe Biden's campaign, meanwhile, has tried to keep the focus on health care, while Biden himself gave extended remarks in Philadelphia, where he struck "notes that have formed the basis of his campaign: respect for precedent, appeals to reason, bipartisanship, devotion to checks and balances," POLITICO's Chris Cadelago wrote. Attention quickly turned to the Senate — especially to the most vulnerable Republicans, many of whom supporting Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's decision to block a vote on Merrick Garland in 2016. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said she would have "no objection" to the Judiciary Committee "beginning the process of reviewing" Trump's nominee, but "the decision on a lifetime appointment" should be made by the president "who is elected on Nov. 3." Besides Collins, the remaining GOP senators with even a moderately competitive race are split into two camps: all in on the eventual nominee, or mum's the word. Most are in the former; Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.), who is facing a pseudo-primary in the special election, was first out of the gate to say she'd back Trump's pick, and Sens. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) joined suit. Others ducked the question — "the time, for now is to pray for [Ginsburg's] family ... as we mourn as a nation," Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) said at a forum — seemingly following McConnell's advice in a "dear colleagues" letter he sent Friday evening, in which he urged Republicans "to be cautious and keep your powder dry until we return to Washington." Campaign Pro's James Arkin has more on how the vacancy scrambled the map. Fundraising on the battle over the Supreme Court kicked in hours after Ginsburg's death, with Democratic grassroots donors flooding ActBlue almost immediately, POLITICO's Elena Schneider reported. In the roughly 48 hours since McConnell announced there would be a vote, the platform processed close to $124 million in donations. Ginsburg's death could also have a major effect on any election-related decisions the Supreme Court issues, POLITICO's Josh Gerstein wrote , noting that "the court's three remaining Democratic appointees would now need two Republican-appointed colleagues to take emergency action." Even if there was a 4-4 split, Josh writes, it means that lower courts' rulings would stand, with key appeals courts having more GOP appointees than Democratic ones. (Of course, what president a judge was appointed under doesn't guarantee them ruling one way or the other.) This is especially important, given that Trump signaled he is going to try to have the courts force a definitive result on election night, one way or the other. "We're going to have a victory on November 3rd the likes of which you've never seen," Trump said in Fayetteville. "Now, we're counting on the federal court system to make it so that we can actually have an evening where we know who wins. Not where the votes are going to be counted a week later or two weeks later." (Recall my story last week, in which I reported that probably won't happen in key swing states because of mail ballot processing timelines.) | | | THE PROCESS — A Michigan Court of Claims judge ruled on Friday that ballots in the state must count if they are postmarked by Nov. 2 (the day before Election Day) and received within 14 days, The Detroit News' Beth LeBlanc reported. This would be a major shift for the state (ballots are typically due by close of polls) — if it sticks. Democratic state Attorney General Dana Nessel's office put out a statement saying it will not appeal, and Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson issued a statement in support of the ruling, but Republicans are still mulling their options. The RNC, state party and both chambers of the GOP-controlled legislature sought to intervene in the case earlier, but were rejected. "While the court unfortunately denied our initial attempt to intervene in the case, we are assessing our options to appeal," RNC spokesman Michael Ahrens said in a statement to Score on Friday. — Pennsylvania is one of the states where ballots cannot begin to be processed until Election Day. (For now, at least: legislation is pending.) "So elections officials in Philadelphia and its four suburban counties have an aggressive but simple new plan for reducing the time it will take to count a deluge of mail ballots: Once they start counting on Election Day, they won't stop," The Philadelphia Inquirer's Jonathan Lai reported. THE CASH DASH — Sunday was a monthly filing deadline, providing a window into where the presidential campaigns and other outside groups stood entering September. The reports below do not include each party's respective joint fundraising committees, which only file quarterly, but The New York Times' Shane Goldmacher reported that Biden had $466 million in the bank, compared to Trump's $325 million. POLITICO's Elena Schneider has more on the filing deadline. — Trump: The president's campaign raised $61.8 million and spent $61.2 million, with $121.1 million in cash on hand (filing). The RNC raised $67.6 million, spent $62.6 million and had $114.9 million in cash on hand ( filing). — Biden: Biden's campaign raised $212.2 million, spent $130.4 million and had $180.6 million in cash reserves (filing). The DNC raised $78.4 million, spent $26.7 million, with $85 million in the bank (filing). And on to the major presidential super PACs. A handful of major super PACs, like AB PAC or the newly-launched Preserve America, are quarterly filers. — Priorities: Priorities USA Action, the major Democratic super PAC, brought in $8.5 million, spent, $9.3 million and has $15.4 million in cash reserves (filing ). Major donors include $3 million from its dark money nonprofit arm, $2.4 million from SMP (the Democratic super PAC focused on the Senate) and $1 million from David Shaw. — America First: America First Action, the major GOP super PAC, raised $23 million, spent $13 million and had $36.3 million in the bank (filing ). Major donors include $10 million from Kelcy Warren, $4.6 million from its dark money nonprofit arm, $2 million from Diane Hendricks, and $1 million each from Patricia Duggan, Andrew Beal and Rex Sinquefield. — Unite the Country: Unite the Country, the pro-Biden super PAC that launched during the primaries, raised $2.9 million, spent $1.7 million and had $6.7 million in the bank (filing). They had no seven-figure donors, but James Murdoch gave $300,000. — CFG: Club for Growth Action, the GOP group that's been spending on both presidential and congressional races, raised $21.8 million, spent $13.7 million and had $19.6 million in the bank (filing). Major donors include $10 million each from Richard Uihlein and Jeff Yass, and $1 million from Richard Gaby.
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MAILING IT IN — Two interesting stories on how the USPS is handling election mail, best read together: Leaders of two major postal unions "are considerably more confident about USPS's ability — and commitment — to help carry out the election than they were a month ago," The Atlantic's Russell Berman reported. But a major unknown is how the USPS would handle a potential surge of positive coronavirus cases, in an agency whose precautions against the virus are sometimes "half-hearted" that "have contributed to the problem," ProPublica's Maryam Jameel and Ryan McCarthy wrote.
RALLY TIME — Both Biden and Trump were in Minnesota on Friday: Trump for a rally and Biden meeting with labor leaders. Here's what they were reading in state, from the Minneapolis Star Tribune's Torey Van Oot and Brooks Johnson: "Biden's carefully choreographed small group encounter required face masks and marked places to sit and stand to ensure social distancing; Trump's boisterous outdoor rally brought together a crowd of several thousand, most of them not wearing masks. The same-day visits to Minnesota by two major-party presidential candidates marked the start of early voting in a Midwestern battleground state that both campaigns see as potentially decisive in November." (In-person early voting started there on Friday!) — And here's the front page story from Trump's Saturday rally in North Carolina, from The Fayetteville Observer's John Henderson : "His supporters who were interviewed as they were walking into the event at Fayetteville Regional Airport said Trump has improved this country on many fronts — including the economy and support for veterans. And they said that it is clear that the media is out to get him." COALITION BUILDING — Trump's support among white voters appears to be slipping, a major boon for Biden. "White voters have not proved immune to the damage inflicted on Trump by the coronavirus and its resulting economic wreckage, which have been a drag on Trump's reelection campaign since spring," POLITICO's David Siders reported. "In particular, the pandemic appears to have hurt Trump with seniors, including older white voters concerned about both their retirement accounts and their health." POLLS POLLS POLLS — A key difference between Biden's lead in polls now, compared to what Hillary Clinton's was at a similar point in 2016: "Biden is much closer to the magic 50 percent mark — both nationally and in key Electoral College battleground states," POLITICO campaigns chief Steve Shepard wrote. "That puts Trump in a significantly worse situation, needing to not only attract skeptical undecided voters but also peel supporters away from Biden, whose poll numbers have been remarkably durable." | 
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaks at a union training center in Hermantown, Minn., on Friday. | Carolyn Kaster/AP Photo | — The New York Times/Siena College polled a couple of swing states. In Arizona, Biden leads Trump, 49 percent to 40 percent (653 likely voters; Sept. 10-15; +/- 4.1 percentage point MoE). And in North Carolina , the race is incredibly close: 45 percent for Biden, and 44 percent for Trump (653 likely voters; Sept. 11-16; +/- 4.3 percentage point MoE). — A pair of CBS News/YouGov polls has tight races in both Florida and Texas. In Florida, Biden is at 48 percent to 46 percent for Trump (1,205 likely voters; Sept. 15-18; +/- 3.7 percentage point MoE). And in Texas, Trump is at 48 percent to Biden's 46 (1,140 likely voters; Sept. 15-18; +/- 3.5 percentage point MoE). — An EPIC-MRA poll of Michigan for the Detroit Free Press and other media partners found Biden with a lead. The poll had Biden at 48 percent, with 40 percent for Trump and 5 percent for third party candidates (600 likely voters; Sept. 10-15; +/- 4.0 percentage point MoE). — In a NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll, Biden led 51 percent to 43 percent for Trump (1,000 registered voters; Sept. 13-16; +/- 3.1 percentage point MoE). THE DEBATE STAGE — Chalk this one up as the least surprising news of the cycle: Trump and Biden (and their running mates, Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Kamala Harris ) were the only candidates to qualify for the Sept. 29 presidential and Oct. 7 VP debates, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced Friday. | | | THE MAP LINES — Democrats got wiped out in state legislative races ahead of redistricting in 2011. But now, both parties have millions and millions of dollars at their disposal, with the redistricting battle being particularly heated in two states: Texas and North Carolina. The two states "are so important because they are large, growing states entirely under GOP control — and many of the other maps Republicans drew a decade ago have stubbornly endured, blunting Democratic gains," POLITICO Campaigns' Ally Mutnick reported. THE CASH DASH — And don't forget about the downballot committees' filings! Both Senate committees set monthly fundraising records — and that was before the court vacancy super-charged the battle for the chamber. Reminder that these only cover from Aug. 1-31. — DSCC: The DSCC raised $26.9 million, spent $26 million and had $41 million in cash on hand (filing). — NRSC: The NRSC raised $19 million, spent $21.8 million and had $13.6 million left in the bank (filing). — DCCC: The DCCC raised $22.7 million, spent $15.8 million and had $104.7 million in cash reserves (filing). — NRCC: The NRCC raised $17.3 million, spent $15.6 million, and had $68.9 million in the bank (filing). And on to the super PACs. (Kudos to the committees, who had all filed by no later than early Sunday afternoon, and boos to all the congressional super PACs, who all waited until after that.) — SMP: Senate Majority PAC, the Democratic super PAC, raised $17.2 million, spent $20.6 million and had $84.9 million in the bank (filing). Major donors include $2 million from the Carpenters Union PAC and $1 million from Jonathan Gray and Miramar Fiduciary Corporation. — SLF: Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP super PAC, raised $37.4 million, spent $28.8 million and had $126.1 million in the bank (filing). That includes $25 million from Sheldon and Miriam Adelson, $4 million from Stephen Wynn, and $1 million each from William Oberndorf, Ronald Cameron and Andrew Beal. — HMP: House Majority PAC, the Democratic super PAC, raised $9.9 million, spent $4.9 million and had $68.9 million in the bank ( filing). Donors include $3 million from the Carpenters Union PAC and $1 million from its dark money affiliate. Congressional Leadership Fund, its GOP counterpart, is a quarterly filer. POLL POSITION — A Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll from Selzer & Co. tested the Iowa Senate race , and showed an incredibly tight race. Democrat Theresa Greenfield was at 45 percent, to 42 percent for GOP Sen. Joni Ernst (658 likely voters; Sept. 14-17; +/- 3.8 percentage point MoE). — The EPIC-MRA Michigan poll also gave Democratic Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) a narrow lead over Republican John James, 45 percent to 41 percent, with 5 percent for a third party candidate. — The CBS/YouGov Texas poll also shows a narrow lead for Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) over Democrat MJ Hegar, 46 percent to 41 percent. — More battleground polls from NYT/Siena: In Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly leads GOP Sen. Martha McSally, 50 percent to 42 percent. In Maine, Democrat Sara Gideon was at 49 percent to 44 percent for Collins in a ranked-choice simulation, while Democratic Rep. Jared Golden led Republican Dale Crafts in ME-02, 56 percent to 37 percent (663 likely voters; Sept. 11-16; +/- 5.1 percentage point MoE). And in North Carolina, Democrat Cal Cunningham was at 42 percent to Tillis' 37 percent. Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper led GOP Lt. Gov. Dan Forest, 47 percent to 42 percent. And we have the rare(ish) Montana poll that tested all three races from NYT/Siena College , with an asterisk that the ballot test included Green Party candidates, who won't actually be on the ballot. In the Senate race, GOP Sen. Steve Daines is at 45 percent to 44 percent for Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock. GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte has a narrow lead over Democratic Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney, 45 percent to 39 percent, to succeed Bullock. And in the open MT-AL, Democrat Kathleen Williams is at 44 percent to 41 percent for Republican Matt Rosendale (625 likely voters; Sept. 14-16; +/- 4.8 percentage point MoE). AD WARS — Collins is getting some support for her bid, with the Republican Jewish Coalition running $450,000 on digital ads highlighting the endorsements of popular blue-state GOP Govs. Larry Hogan of Maryland and Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, along with former Sen. Joe Lieberman (ID-Conn.), James writes for Pros. — Reminder for Pro subscribers: We're moving to our daily ad roundup starting today! Make sure your alerts are set up so that you receive it in the afternoon. (We'll be sure to always link to it in the next day's Score, just in case.) This afternoon's roundup will also include the ads from over the weekend, and we'll continue to highlight exclusive and interesting ads in Score. THE PARTY LINE? — The Alaska state Supreme Court declined to make the state's election board reprint ballots, after independent House candidate Alyse Galvin challenged a change on the ballot that went from listing candidates by their registered party to how they qualified (in Galvin's case, by winning the Democratic nomination), per the Anchorage Daily News' James Brooks. OUT OF OFFICE — A real oof: During a virtual event last week, former Colorado Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper criticized GOP Sen. Cory Gardner for the Senate recess, saying "when Colorado faced wildfires and floods, we didn't go on vacation while people were suffering." But, The Denver Post's Justin Wingerter wrote, "governor's office calendars and previous news coverage show that least twice while governor, he left Colorado for apparent vacations while parts of the state were on fire." THE DEBATE STAGE — We had a pair of Senate debates over the weekend. In Kansas, GOP Rep. Roger Marshall and Democrat Barbara Bollier clashed "on how quickly a successor should be appointed" to replace Ginsburg on Saturday, The Wichita Eagle's Bryan Lowry wrote, where they also debated abortion. — And in Minnesota, Democratic Sen. Tina Smith and former GOP Rep. Jason Lewis talked about the pandemic, jobs and more on Friday, per the Duluth News Tribune's Peter Passi. FIRST IN SCORE — LANDING IN MAILBOXES — EDF Action Votes is launching a $1 million direct mail program, boosting four freshman Democratic incumbents: Harley Rouda (CA-48), Cindy Axne (IA-03), Lauren Underwood (IL-14) and Lizzie Fletcher (TX-07). CODA — TWEET OF THE DAY: "If u lost ur pet pidgin /it's dead in front yard my Iowa farm JUST DISCOVERED" — Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) in another all-time tweet on Saturday. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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