We Did it: Nearly 1 million Americans have already voted — The last-second debate scramble

Sep 28, 2020

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Quick Fix

— A bit under 1 million Americans have already cast their ballot ahead of the first debate, and a couple of crucial battleground states have also seen a significant percentage of their vote already cast.

— Last-minute debate preparations are sliding into place, with President Donald Trump and Joe Biden set to square off on Tuesday.

— A federal judge ordered that the census count be extended, a move that the Trump administration immediately said it would appeal.

Good Monday morning. Hard to believe tomorrow is the first presidential debate. Really snuck up on us, huh? Email me at zmontellaro@politico.com and follow me on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro.

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Days until the first presidential debate: 1

Days until the vice-presidential debate: 9

Days until the 2020 election: 36

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TopLine

THE EARLIEST VOTERS — We're still a day away from the first presidential debate, but nearly a million people have already cast their ballots. Over 944,000 people have either returned their mail ballot or voted early in-person through Sunday, according to data compiled by University of Florida professor Michael McDonald for his site U.S. Elections Project.

The number represents a small portion of how many people will ultimately vote — it is 0.7 percent of the 2016 general election turnout — but with some crucial battlegrounds having not yet even sent out mail ballots yet, that number is expected to balloon soon enough. (And the number of people who have actually voted is likely higher: It doesn't include ballots that are in transit, and not every state updates their voter data daily.)

In terms of raw number of voters, the current leader is Virginia, where just over 284,000 voters have already made their selection. But two critical swing states have also seen more than 200,000 voters already make their picks: North Carolina (247,000) and Wisconsin (213,000). That'd equate to 5.2 percent and 7.2 percent of 2016 turnout in each state, respectively. (The state with the highest percentage of 2016 turnout is South Dakota, at a whopping 9.5 percent.)

North Carolina also releases a lot more data than some other states on its mail ballots, giving us an interesting look into who is requesting (and returning) ballots. Nearly 1.1 million ballots have been requested, with Democrats absolutely swamping Republicans in both requests and returns. Democrats have requested just under 522,000 ballots, while Republicans have requested 194,000 (the remainder is either independent voters or those registered to a minor party). Democratic voters are not just returning ballots at a higher raw number — 133,000 to 40,000 — but as a higher percentage as well, with 25.5 percent of Democratic voters who requested a ballot having already sent it back, versus 20.8 percent of Republicans.

One concerning datapoint: Black voters are getting their ballots marked deficient (in North Carolina, voters can cure their ballots) at a higher rate than white voters. The overall ballot rejection rate across the state is 1.7 percent. But for Black voters, there's a 4.3 percent rejection rate, compared to 1.1 percent for white voters.

Presidential Big Board

THE DEBATE STAGE — The first presidential debate is nearly here. Biden and Trump will meet tomorrow (it'll start at 9 p.m. and run for 90 minutes) in Cleveland. POLITICO's Natasha Korecki and Alex Isenstadt broke down the goals of both campaigns, based off of interviews with a dozen campaign aides and outside allies. For Biden: "Stick to Covid-19 and the economy. Don't waste valuable time fact-checking the president, except perhaps his most egregious falsehoods. And be ready for Trump to go after your kid — and your brothers. … The former vice president will attempt to draw stark contrasts with Trump on leadership style."

And for Trump: "Some senior advisers have privately expressed concern that the president has been unfocused in the run-up to the debate. Trump aides said they want to use the debate to draw out Biden on some of his more liberal positions ... in hopes of softening the former vice president's support among more moderate voters. Senior Republicans say Trump's objective is simple: To spend his time keeping Biden on defense — and to not spend too much time in back-and-forths over his first-term record, especially on Covid-19."

— Plus some logistical details, from Isenstadt: There will be no pre-debate handshake or elbow-bump, and neither of the candidates (nor debate moderator Chris Wallace) will wear masks. There will also be an audience of 75-80 people, but there will be no post-debate spin room for the media.

The death of the spin room, which was certainly hastened by the pandemic, will also move a lot of the debate response to online. "The Biden campaign will have three mini-teams on 'spin room' duty," POLITICO's Alex Thompson wrote, which includes pushing content through the campaign's channels and engaging prominent supporters. (The Trump team declined to share any details of its debate night operation.)

TRUMP TAXES — The New York Times's Russ Buettner, Susanne Craig and Mike McIntire landed a real bombshell: The president's tax information. The Times reported that Trump paid just $750 in federal income taxes in 2016 and 2017, and "paid no income taxes at all in 10 of the previous 15 years," with more than $300 million in loans due over the next four years. More: "In response to a letter summarizing The Times's findings, Alan Garten, a lawyer for the Trump Organization, said that 'most, if not all, of the facts appear to be inaccurate' and requested the documents on which they were based. After The Times declined to provide the records, in order to protect its sources, Mr. Garten took direct issue only with the amount of taxes Mr. Trump had paid."

And The Times' (fairly vague) note on sourcing: "The New York Times has obtained tax-return data extending over more than two decades for Mr. Trump and the hundreds of companies that make up his business organization, including detailed information from his first two years in office. It does not include his personal returns for 2018 or 2019. This article offers an overview of The Times's findings; additional articles will be published in the coming weeks. … All of the information The Times obtained was provided by sources with legal access to it. While most of the tax data has not previously been made public, The Times was able to verify portions of it by comparing it with publicly available information and confidential records previously obtained by The Times."

THE HIGH COURT — If you weren't living under a rock, you heard over the weekend that Trump named Circuit Judge Amy Coney Barrett as his pick for the Supreme Court opening created by Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death. If Barrett is ultimately confirmed (and we are certainly heading that way quite speedily, even as Democrats try to kick as much sand into the gears as they can), Trump's legacy will be a Supreme Court that'll "likely mark one of the most dramatic ideological turnarounds the court has seen in such a short timespan in generations," POLITICO's Antita Kumar wrote. Meanwhile, Senate Democrats will try to oppose Barrett's nomination with one message: health care, POLITICO's Burgess Everett reported.

THE PROCESS — The county manager of Luzerne County, Pa., detailed how a handful of military ballots were "incorrectly discarded" in an extensive statement, along with the steps the county took once they noticed discarded ballots, I wrote with Holly Otterbein . The manager said that county officials "were unaware of who the ballots were cast for until the Department of Justice identified the voters as supporters of President Donald Trump." (This was the unusual press release the DOJ sent out earlier last week that concerned election experts.)

— The 7th Circuit Court of Appeals stayed a lower court's order that extended the ballot return deadline in Wisconsin from close of polls to postmarked by Election Day and received by Nov. 9, "pending further order of this court." The Wisconsin State Journal's Shanzeh Ahmad has more.

— Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate, a Republican, will allow county auditors to begin opening absentee ballots starting on Oct. 31 instead of the Monday before Election Day (when tallying can begin), after a legislative council approved his proposal, per KMEG's Caroline Cummings.

— A federal district judge blocked Texas from eliminating straight-ticket voting in the state (which Democrats hope will help them down ballot), but Texas state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican, indicated he'll appeal, The Texas Tribune's Alex Samuels reported.

LEGAL EAGLES — The RNC is deploying a massive legal operation, ahead of what could be the most litigious election yet. "Dozens of lawyers from three major law firms have been hired. Thousands of volunteer attorneys and poll watchers across the country have been recruited. Republicans are preparing pre-written legal pleadings that can be hurried to the courthouse the day after the election, as wrangling begins over close results and a crush of mail-in ballots," Anita wrote. "Most Republican attorneys are being tapped from a trio of law firms: Consovoy McCarthy ... Jones Day … and King and Spalding."

MONEY MEN — Preserve America, the newish super PAC supporting Trump, has spent more than $80 million in the past month. More from Isenstadt: "Preserve America officials have declined to name their donors, which will be revealed in campaign finance filings next month. But senior Republicans have said they expect the group to receive funding from Las Vegas casino mogul Sheldon Adelson and Home Depot co-founder Bernie Marcus." Its latest ad has a Kenosha, Wis., business owner criticizing Biden.

HITTING THE TRAIL —Trump held a series of events on Friday and Saturday, click through for the local coverage. Trump attended a Latinos for Trump roundtable at his golf resort in Florida in Doral on Friday (the Miami Herald's David Smiley and Alex Daugherty), before giving a speech on "Black economic empowerment" in Atlanta ( The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein and Ernie Suggs). He closed the night at a Newport News, Va., rally (The Richmond Times-Dispatch's Mel Leonor). He had a Middletown, Pa., rally on Saturday (The Patriot News' David Wenner).

ON THE AIRWAVES — Bloomberg announced that he'd launch $40 million worth of TV ads in Florida through his Independence USA super PAC, per POLITICO Florida's Matt Dixon.

POLLS POLLS POLLS — A pair of battleground CBS News/YouGov polls, a pair of tight races. In Georgia, Trump is at 47 percent to 46 percent for Biden. (1,142 likely voters; Sept. 22-25; +/- 3.4 percentage point MoE). And in North Carolina, Biden is at 48 percent to Trump's 46 percent (1,194 likely voters; Sept. 22-25; +/- 3.6 percentage point MoE).

— Biden has a lead in a pair of Rust Belt states in new NBC News/Marist College polls. Biden leads Trump, 54 percent to 44 percent, in Wisconsin (727 likely voters; Sept. 20-24; +/- 4.6 percentage point MoE). In Michigan, Biden leads 52 percent to 44 percent (799 likely voters; Sept. 19-23; +/- 4.3 percentage point MoE).

— A pair of Minnesota polls gives Biden a lead. In a MPR News/Minneapolis Star Tribune/KARE poll from Mason-Dixon, Biden is at 48 percent to 42 percent for Trump (800 likely voters; Sept. 21-23; +/- 3.5 percentage point MoE). In a USA Today/Suffolk University poll, Biden is at 47 percent to Trump's 40 percent (500 likely voters; Sept. 20-24; +/- 4.4 percentage point MoE).

— Biden also led two national polls. In a New York Times/Siena College poll , Biden is at 49 percent to 41 percent for Trump (950 likely voters; Sept. 22-24; +/- 3.5 percentage point MoE). An ABC News/Washington Post poll has Biden at 49 percent to Trump's 43 percent, when Libertarian Jo Jorgensen and Green Howie Hawkins are included (739 likely voters; Sept. 21-24; +/- 4.0 percentage point MoE).

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Down the Ballot

COUNTING HEADS — A federal judge ordered last week that the Census Bureau continue the count for the decennial census, saying enumeration must run through the end of October, I wrote . (It was scheduled to end on Wednesday.) It amounts to a serious rebuke of the Bureau's last minute about-face on its request for a pandemic-related extension. But there is still considerable uncertainty remaining: The government asked the Ninth Circuit of Appeals to stay the ruling extending the census deadlines, which also includes when the president will report apportionment data to Congress.

THE CASH DASH — Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) really, really wants Fox News viewers to send him money, as he faces a tougher-than-expected race against Democrat Jaime Harrison. Since Ginsburg's death, Graham has appeared multiple times on Fox News to promote his website and directly ask for cash, POLITICO Campaigns chief Steve Shepard wrote. (Harrison, too, also frequently promotes his website.) An all-timer line from Steve: "In a six-sentence statement provided for this article, Graham campaign communications director T.W. Arrighi mentioned the URL for Graham's campaign website five times."

POLLS POSITION — CBS/YouGov also tested competitive Senate races. In Georgia, GOP Sen. David Perdue led Democrat Jon Ossoff, 47 percent to 42 percent. In North Carolina, Democrat Cal Cunningham has a big lead over GOP Sen. Thom Tillis, 48 percent to 38 percent. And in there's a tight race in South Carolina: Graham is at 45 percent to 44 percent for Harrison (1,050 likely voters; Sept. 22-25; +/- 3.8 percentage point MoE).

— The NBC News/Marist poll gave Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) a narrow lead over Republican John James, 49 percent to 44 percent.

— Both Minnesota polls showed Democratic Sen. Tina Smith leading former GOP Rep. Jason Lewis. In the MPR poll , Smith is up 49 percent to 41 percent. In the USA Today/Suffolk poll, Smith is at 45 percent, to 35 percent for Lewis.

MINNESOTA UNCERTAINTY — Freshman Democratic Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) indicated she's at least mulling legal action, after the death of a candidate from the Legal Marijuana Now party delayed the election in the battleground MN-02 from November to a special election in February. "At this stage, there are still many outstanding questions. You should continue to vote for the entire ballot, including for this congressional race," Craig said in a statement on Friday. "I can assure you that I am working tirelessly to get these answers as quickly as possible." MPR's Brian Bakst has more.

TECH TALK — Google will block election ads after polls close on Nov. 3, writing in an email to advertisers that it'll stop ads "referencing candidates, the election, or its outcome, given that an unprecedented amount of votes will be counted after election day this year," Axios' Sara Fischer reported.

ON THE AIRWAVES — We have another ad roundup from the whole team, pulling roughly 40 ads together in a feature that's exclusive for Pro subscribers. The ad of the day comes from former GOP Rep. David Valadao's comeback bid in CA-21, where he strikes a remarkably different tone on immigration than many Republicans, highlighting his support for Dreamers.

FIRST IN SCORE — ENDORSEMENT CORNER — The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is endorsing Republican Carlos Giménez, who is challenging freshman Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in FL-26.

— FIRST IN SCORE — NewDem Action fund is endorsing a series of battleground and open seat Democrats: Sara Jacobs (CA-53), Jill Schupp (MO-02), Amy Kennedy (NJ-02), Nancy Goroff (NY-01), Cameron Webb (VA-05) and Marilyn Strickland (WA-10). Ammar Campa-Najjar (CA-50) was also added to its "candidates to watch" list, a step below the endorsement.

CODA — CAMPAIGN FINANCE DONATION OF THE DAY: Madison Square Garden owner James Dolan donated $50,000 to a PAC that opposes freshman Democratic Rep. Max Rose , because Rose called on Dolan to sell the New York Knicks, the New York Post reported. (Dolan also maxed out to Republican Nicole Malliotakis' campaign.)

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