We Did it: Retirements and redistricting spawn congressional shakeup

Nov 22, 2021

PROGRAMMING NOTE: We'll be off for Thanksgiving this Thursday and Friday but back to our normal schedule on Monday, Nov. 29.

Quick Fix

— The latest House retirements and new congressional maps sparked a game of musical chairs in congressional races in key states.

— Ohio is the latest state to finalize a new congressional map, and the lines give a big boost to the GOP. Our new redistricting tracker is all over it.

— Republicans' key Senate campaign committee has a big cash advantage over its Democratic counterpart, and more takeaways from the newest monthly FEC filings.

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Days until the FL-20 special election: 50

Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 351

Days until the 2024 election: 1,079

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TopLine

MUSICAL CHAIRS — From the East Coast to the West Coast, a trio of House retirements and a set of new political maps have created chaos in congressional races. Candidates are getting in, getting out and otherwise reshuffling contests in a number of states ahead of the 2022 midterms.

Just in the last week, three House Democrats have announced their retirements. Perhaps the least surprising was Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Texas), who had previously said her current term would be her last but confirmed her departure over the weekend. Several Democrats are already vying to replace her, the Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek wrote. Meanwhile in California, Rep. Jackie Speier called it quits. Democrat David Canepa jumped into the race to replace her on Saturday.

Meanwhile, North Carolina Rep. G.K. Butterfield directly blamed redistricting for his retirement. And he's not the only politician in his home state to reevaluate after state lawmakers approved new political maps.

Keep in mind: There isn't a whole lot of time left before the primary in the Tar Heel State. The filing deadline is less than a month away, and the primary is on March 8. Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.) announced he'd swap districts to run in NC-13, a more competitive seat than the new NC-14, which his home was drawn into this cycle.

Meanwhile, former GOP Rep. Mark Walker could end his Senate bid to run in NC-07, The News & Observer's Danielle Battaglia reports. North Carolina Democrat Richard Watkins already jumped ship, dropping out of the Senate race and entering the NC-06 contest. Former state Sen. Erica Smith, another Democrat, filed to run in NC-02, which is Butterfield's district, and winding down her second straight Senate bid.

The unusually late redistricting cycle is shaking up congressional races in plenty of other states. Data was released late by the Census Bureau, which delayed the new maps. Ohio Republican Max Miller announced his congressional campaign is switching districts, POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt wrote. Miller had been running for retiring GOP Rep. Anthony Gonzalez 's seat, but will instead run in the new, more Democrat-friendly OH-13, where his home is located. Ohio finalized its redistricting plan over the weekend. (More on that in a second).

And in Montana, Democrat Laurie Bishop ended her congressional campaign after the new congressional map landed her home outside the district she was running in, the Independent Record's Sam Wilson wrote. Her campaign also acknowledged difficulties raising money.

Down the Ballot

THE MAP LINES — Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine signed a new congressional map for the next four years, the Cleveland Plain Dealer's Andrew Tobias wrote. The new map shores up Republicans' advantages in the state, leaving only two safe Democratic seats in Cleveland and Columbus.

Ohio redistricting map

— The Georgia state Senate passed a new congressional map on a party-line vote that would boost Republicans over the next decade, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Maya Prabhu reported. The map heads to the state House for approval, with a vote expected as early as today.

— Oklahoma state lawmakers sent new political maps to GOP Gov. Kevin Stitt's desk for a signature, KJRH's Ryan Love reported.

— The Virginia state Supreme Court picked the two special masters for congressional redistricting: From the Democratic list, the court chose University of California-Irvine professor Bernard Grofman, and the GOP pick was RealClearPolitics' Sean Trende. The two have 30 days to redraw the maps, the Virginia Mercury's Peter Galuszka wrote.

— It's becoming more difficult to challenge gerrymandered maps in court, The New York Times' Michael Wines reported. The courts have made it harder to prove political districts were drawn to reduce the power of minority groups, and "legal challenges face a much less sympathetic federal bench remade by the 226 right-leaning judges and three Supreme Court justices confirmed during the Trump administration."

THE CASH DASH — The major Republican committees outraised the major Democratic committees last month, except for the DCCC, which raised more cash than the NRCC, according to the newest monthly FEC filings. These reports cover the month of October.

— DNC: The DNC raised $11.5 million and spent $13 million with $68.1 million on hand. (DNC filing)

— RNC: The RNC raised $13.8 million and spent $16.5 million with $67.9 million on hand. (RNC filing)

— DSCC: The DSCC raised $7 million and spent $4.5 million with $15.9 million on hand. (DSCC filing)

— NRSC: The NRSC raised $9 million and spent $7.1 million with $29.7 million in cash on hand. The committee did not report any debt. (NRSC filing)

— DCCC: The DCCC raised $11.7 million and spent $6.9 million with $67.6 million in cash on hand. (DCCC filing)

— NRCC: The NRCC raised $9.8 million and spent $7.1 million with $67.7 million in cash on hand. (NRCC filing)

MIDTERM MESSAGING — Democrats say they've learned from their failure to sell former President Barack Obama's agenda in 2010, and are prepared to tout Biden's priorities ahead of the 2022 midterms, POLITICO's Sarah Ferris and Heather Caygle wrote.

"In a stark departure from 2010's frantic scramble, battleground-district Democrats are now yoking themselves to the president's agenda, making it the centerpiece of their reelection campaigns as key pieces of the social spending bill poll above 60 percent," they wrote.

NOTABLE FLOATABLES — Former Pennsylvania state house Speaker Mike Turzai plans to run in the GOP gubernatorial primary, Lancaster Online's Brad Bumsted wrote. If he does, Turzai would join a jam-packed primary race to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf.

THE GRANITE STATE — Former Vice President Mike Pence will host a fundraiser in New Hampshire for Republicans, WMUR's John DiStaso and Adam Sexton reported. State Senate President Chuck Morse, who is considering a challenge to Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), confirmed Pence will headline the Dec. 8 event. The fundraiser is for a PAC linked to state Senate Republicans and unrelated to his possible Senate bid.

POLL POSITION — New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is the leader in the Democratic primary field, according to a new Data for Progress poll, POLITICO's Sally Goldenberg reported . Hochul had 36 percent of support in the survey when former Gov. Andrew Cuomo was included, and state Attorney General Tish James had 22 percent of support. When Cuomo was removed from the poll, his 15 percent of support was divided among the candidates. The poll surveyed 528 likely Democratic primary voters from Nov. 16-17.

— Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) could face an uphill battle in a Democratic primary in 2024, according to a new poll. When given the choice between Sinema, a Republican or a Democrat other than Sinema, 72 percent of Arizona Democrats said they preferred another member of their party, the survey found. OH Predictive Insights surveyed 713 registered voters from Nov. 1-8. The poll also found Sinema's approval above water with Republicans, and underwater among Democrats.

— Rhode Island Democrat Nellie Gorbea is nearly tied with Gov. Dan McKee in the gubernatorial primary, according to an internal poll from Gorbea's campaign, WPRI's Ted Nesi reported. McKee had 26 percent of support in the survey, while Gorbea had 24 percent. The Lake Research Partners poll surveyed 500 likely Democratic primary voters from Nov. 7-9.

ON THE AIRWAVES — EDF Action, the advocacy partner of the Environmental Defense Fund, launched a $264,000 TV ad campaign to thank 15 House lawmakers for voting for the Build Back Better Act. The ad buy is part of a $7 million campaign from the group. The ads are running in districts held by Reps. Tom O'Halleran (D-Ariz.), Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.), Lucy McBath (D-Ga.), Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Ga.), Cindy Axne (D-Iowa), Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), Susie Lee (D-Nevada), Steven Horsford (D-Nevada), Conor Lamb (D-Pa.), Lizzie Fletcher (D-Texas), Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas), Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), Marc Veasey (D-Texas) and the retiring Filemón Vela (D-Texas).

PAC ATTACK — GOP strategist Ed Rollins and entrepreneur Harrison Rogers launched a new PAC that aims to spend $10 million to support Republicans. The Restore Our Freedom PAC plans to "undermine the radical Biden agenda and boost pro-liberty Republicans on a national level" to help the party reclaim the House and Senate next year and the White House in 2024.

BALLOT BATTLE — Republicans are taking aim at the Wisconsin Elections Commission in an attempt to take over elections in the state, The New York Times' Reid Epstein reported. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said Republican state lawmakers should take control of federal elections in the state, and sheriff who is a Trump ally recommended felony charges against five of the six commissioners who serve the bipartisan elections agency.

HINDSIGHT IS 2021 — Progressives weren't invited to help campaign in the Virginia governor's race, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told The New York Times' Astead Herndon . Democratic former Gov. Terry McAuliffe lost to Gov.-elect Glenn Youngkin earlier this month. "Before the Virginia elections, it was very clear that our help and our participation was not wanted or asked for, which is fine," Ocasio-Cortez said. "Not a single person asked me to send an email, not even to my own list. And then they turn around and say, 'It's their fault.' When I think it was communicated quite expressly that we were unwelcome to pitch in."

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Presidential Big Board

NEVER TOO EARLY — Biden is planning to run for a second term in 2024, he and his inner circle have told allies in recent days, The Washington Post's Michael Scherer, Tyler Pager and Sean Sullivan reported. "The message is aimed in part at tamping down the assumption among many Democrats that Biden may not seek reelection given his age and waning popularity, while also effectively freezing the field for Vice President Harris and other potential presidential hopefuls," the Post notes.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY — "I don't even know what enigma means, really. No one really does." — Sinema, answering a question about whether she's an enigma, during an interview on KNXV.

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