| | | | By Stephanie Murray | Presented by PREMION | | | — The Senate map is coming into sharper focus ahead of the 2022 midterms. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) is running for reelection, and there are only three Senate lawmakers who have not shared their political plans. — The race for New York governor is taking shape, with Gov. Kathy Hochul packing $10 million into her war chest and New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams preparing to launch a campaign. — President Joe Biden's approval rating has dropped by double digits in the last six months, according to a new poll. Good Monday morning. Email me at smurray@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @stephanie_murr. Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, zmontellaro@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @ZachMontellaro and @allymutnick. Days until the FL-20 special election: 57 Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 358 Days until the 2024 election: 1,086 | | A message from PREMION: When it comes to winning campaigns, every impression counts With skyrocketing streaming TV audiences, CTV is now an essential media channel for reaching voters. Our new white paper helps political marketers navigate the increasingly fragmented and complex streaming TV marketplace and provides insights for effective planning, buying and measurement of CTV advertising. Download our complimentary white paper, A Marketer's Guide: The New Rules Ahead for Streaming TV Advertising here. | | | | | Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) announced she will seek another term. | AND THEN THERE WERE THREE — As the 2022 midterms loom, there are only a handful of Senate lawmakers who have not shared whether they will seek reelection next year. Murkowski announced on Friday that she's running for another term, gearing up for a contentious contest against a Trump-endorsed Republican.
Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) has a press conference scheduled in Montpelier later this morning, leading many to speculate he might announce whether he'll seek a ninth term. Leahy was first elected to the Senate in 1974, and he's the only Democrat that Vermonters have ever elected to the Senate. An open race in Vermont wouldn't be likely to tip the balance of the Senate, but in a state with only one congressional district and two longtime senators, it would be a pretty rare event. A spokesperson did not say whether Leahy will talk about his political future at the press briefing. If Leahy does announce his plans today, the timing would make sense. There are just over six weeks left until 2022 — and campaign season — begins. To the east, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu announced last week he will not run against Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), adding a little more clarity to the battleground map. There are only two other members of the Senate who haven't disclosed their plans: Sens. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) and John Thune (R-S.D.). Thune is still considering his 2022 plans, telling the Grand Forks Herald's Christopher Vondracek that he wants to avoid a divisive campaign season. Johnson committed to only serving two terms in the past. Now at the end of his second term, Johnson has sounded lately like he's changed his mind. "This is crucial that Republicans retain this Senate seat and I think just about everybody I talk to says I probably have the best chance of doing that," Johnson told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Bill Glauber a few weeks ago. He said during a recent radio interview on "The Dan O'Donnell Show" that he'll announce his decision in the next few weeks. Meanwhile in Alaska, Murkowski is one of former President Donald Trump's top GOP adversaries, POLITICO's Burgess Everett and Quint Forgey wrote, and his allies are helping Trump-endorsed Republican challenger Kelly Tshibaka. A pro-Murkowski super PAC just filed with the FEC, and separately, ClearPath Action Fund will launch a $250,000 radio and digital ad buy in Alaska today, first reported in Score. The ads will support Murkowski's "work to champion clean energy innovation." | | | | | | THE EMPIRE STATE — Hochul has raised $10 million for her campaign for a full term, Spectrum News' Nick Reisman wrote. Hochul has raised more than $12 million for the four-year election cycle and had $11.1 million in cash on hand, her campaign said. — Williams is expected to launch his campaign for governor this week, POLITICO New York's Sally Goldenberg wrote. Williams will face Hochul and state Attorney General Tish James in the Democratic primary, and outgoing New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio has also filed to run. Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) is also considering a bid. GETTING IN — Rep. Cindy Axne (D-Iowa) is running for reelection, and passing on a run for governor, the Des Moines Register's Brianne Pfannenstiel and Stephen Gruber-Miller wrote. Axne announced her plans during an interview on the Iowa PBS show Iowa Press, a day after Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) said she would run in IA-01 rather than run in Axne's IA-03, which she was drawn into this cycle. — Republican Willie Vasquez Ng launched a campaign against Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar in TX-28. Vasquez Ng is a former San Antonio police detective. The GOP primary includes Ed Cabrera and Sandra Whitten. STUCK IN THE SUBURBS — Republicans made gains in the Philadelphia suburbs earlier this month, in the same counties that carried Biden to victory last year. "The GOP flipped multiple row offices in populous Bucks County, carried a state Supreme Court race there, and even came close to winning seats on the county council in Delaware County, where Biden romped by nearly 30 points in 2020," POLITICO's Holly Otterbein wrote. THE MAP LINES — The Nevada state Senate approved a new congressional map backed by Democrats in a party line vote on Sunday, The Nevada Independent's Michelle Rindels and Riley Snyder reported. The bill heads to the state Assembly next. — The Montana Districting and Apportionment Commission sent its final congressional map proposal to the secretary of state's office on Friday, Montana Public Radio's Shaylee Ragar reported. The state's western congressional district will be known as MT-01, and the eastern district will be MT-02. — The Virginia state Supreme Court cast doubt on the experts that Republican lawmakers offered to assist with redistricting, and disqualified one for having a conflict of interest, The Washington Post's Teo Armus reported. The court took over the redistricting process after a commission failed to come to an agreement on new political maps. Leaders of either party offered up special masters, and the court will eventually select one from each party. Republicans were ordered to submit three new names by today, and Democrats were ordered to submit one new nominee. — Oklahoma state lawmakers begin a special session to tackle redistricting today, The Oklahoman's Carmen Forman reported. PRIMARY SOURCES — Health care executive Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick is the apparent winner of the FL-20 Democratic primary to replace the late Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Fla.), POLITICO's David Kihara wrote. Following a recount in the crowded primary race, Cherfilus-McCormick beat county commissioner Dale Holness by fewer than 10 votes. — Sen. Mike Lee's (R-Utah) evolving views on Trump have left him at odds with political and religious leaders in his home state, The Atlantic's McKay Coppins reported. Lee faces two Republican primary opponents and Evan McMullin, who is running as an independent. Lee is a former Trump critic who embraced the former president over the course of his term. His relationship with Trump hit a boiling point in Utah when he compared Trump to a figure from the Book of Mormon, upsetting members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.
| | DON'T MISS POLITICO'S SUSTAINABILITY SUMMIT: Join POLITICO's Sustainability Summit on Tuesday, Nov. 16 and hear leading voices from Washington, state houses, city halls, civil society and corporate America discuss the most viable policy and political solutions that balance economic, environmental and social interests. REGISTER HERE. | | | Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro . You'll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day's biggest stories. MIDTERM MESSAGING — Democrats fear Biden's sinking approval rating could doom incumbent Democratic governors next year, especially after the party lost the Virginia governor's race this month, POLITICO's Zach Montellaro reported. "Democrats hold the governorship in eight states up in 2022 that are less or similarly favorable than Virginia — Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — a grouping that has topped Republicans' target list since the election cycle began," Zach notes. — Republicans are worried they could waste their chance to retake the Senate next fall because a trio of major GOP candidates in battleground states are plagued with domestic violence scandals, The Washington Post's Michael Scherer and Mike DeBonis reported. Pennsylvania Republican Sean Parnell was accused of choking his wife, Georgia Republican Herschel Walker allegedly threatened his wife with a gun, and former Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens was accused of tying up his mistress in the basement of his home. THE PROCESS — Wisconsin Republicans issued a subpoena for election records as part of a partisan review of last year's election, but elections officials fear complying with the request would violate guidance from the Department of Justice. To accommodate the subpoena, Madison's top election official proposed making state auditors sworn election officials, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Molly Beck reported. Madison City Clerk Maribeth Witzel-Behl told "auditors they could look at her records, or handle copies, but could not touch the original documents because of guidance from the U.S. Department of Justice that strictly limits who can handle election documents." 2025! — New Jersey Republican Jack Ciattarelli will run for governor in 2025, he announced when conceding the 2021 election to Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, POLITICO New Jersey's Sam Sutton and Katherine Landergan wrote. Ciattarelli waited more than a week to admit defeat in the closer-than-expected race.
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| | POLL POSITION — Biden's approval rating has dropped by 11 points since April, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll . The poll found 41 percent of adults approved of the job Biden is doing as president, compared to 44 percent in September and 52 percent in April. The poll found only 39 percent of adults approve Biden's handling of the economy, down from 52 percent in April. The poll surveyed 1,001 adults from Nov. 7-10. — Trump leads Biden by 11 percentage points in a hypothetical 2024 matchup in a new Iowa poll, Des Moines Register's Brianne Pfannenstiel and Stephen Gruber-Miller reported. Trump had support from 51 percent of likely Iowa voters, compared to 40 percent who said they supported Biden, the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll found. The Selzer & Co. poll surveyed 658 likely Iowa voters from Nov. 7-10. Trump won Iowa by 8 points last year. NEVER TOO EARLY — If Biden does not seek another term in 2024, it's not clear that Vice President Kamala Harris will be his successor, POLITICO's Eugene Daniels and Alex Thompson wrote. Harris' 2020 primary rivals, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), have kept their national networks alive over the past year. "Less than a year into her time in the executive branch, more than a dozen Democratic officials — some affiliated with potential candidates — say that Harris is currently not scaring any prospective opponents," Eugene and Alex wrote. CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY — "He's a Republican that lives in Florida. I mean, that's it." — Sununu, on whether he's comfortable with Trump's presence in the Republican Party, on NBC's "Meet the Press."
| | A message from PREMION: When it comes to winning campaigns, every impression counts
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