Monday, November 1, 2021

What happens in Virginia won’t stay in Virginia

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Score is your guide to the year-round campaign cycle.
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By Stephanie Murray

Quick Fix

— It's Election Eve in Virginia, where Republican Glenn Youngkin has inched past former Gov. Terry McAuliffe in polling averages.

— Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) will retire from Congress next year, the second pro-impeachment Republican to leave the House.

— Georgia Republican Herschel Walker is dominating the Senate primary field, according to an internal poll obtained by POLITICO.

Good Monday morning. Email me at smurray@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @stephanie_murr.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, zmontellaro@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @ZachMontellaro and @allymutnick.

Days until the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections, the OH-11 and OH-15 special elections and the FL-20 special primary: 1

Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 372

Days until the 2024 election: 1,100

 

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TopLine

Terry McAuliffe and Glenn Youngkin are pictured in two side-by-side photos.

Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe and Republican challenger Glenn Youngkin are locked in a close race in Virginia. | Cliff Owen/AP Photo

OLD DOMINION — We're just a day away the most-watched race of the off year: the battle for Virginia governor between McAuliffe and Youngkin.

Youngkin is the leader in the FiveThirtyEight polling average, which puts him ahead of McAuliffe by .6 of a percentage point. That's a significant turnaround from when now-President Joe Biden won Virginia just a year ago.

"There is scant evidence that McAuliffe's attempt to revive the agitated emotions of 2020 and to cast Youngkin as a Donald Trump proxy is working. What seems evident is that many residents are feeling drained and ready to return to a time when politics wasn't all-consuming," POLITICO's Brittany Gibson and John Harris wrote in a dispatch from Alexandira's Crestwood Drive.

Youngkin's rise has been fueled by independent voters, Trump supporters and parents, while McAuliffe's efforts to unite Biden's fraying base isn't going as well, POLITICO's Steve Shepard reported. Education has traditionally been Democratic territory, but Youngkin is leading among voters who say education is their top issue, and peeling away some Biden backers. Meanwhile, Democrats are sounding the alarm that McAuliffe's support among Black voters, a key constituency, "is weaker and less enthusiastic than it could be," POLITICO's Elena Schneider and Maya King wrote.

And in the final days of the razor-thin race McAuliffe's campaign was hit by some unflattering political shenanigans. The Lincoln Project claimed responsibility for a widely panned stunt, in which faux white supremacists dressed up with tiki torches and stood outside a Youngkin campaign bus, in an effort to tie him to the violence in Charlottesville several years ago. The move wasn't tied to McAuliffe's campaign but reflected poorly on Democrats.

We're 24 hours away from when the polls open in the Old Dominion. But more than a million people have already voted. As of Saturday, 1.1 million early ballots had been cast, which is 19 percent of the state's registered voters, according to data from the Virginia Public Access Project. For more on both candidates' final campaign events, read POLITICO's Zach Montellaro and Brittany Gibson, who reported from West Springfield.

And what happens in Virginia will reverberate across the country. Democratic lawmakers recently warned House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that if Democrats lose races for governor in Virginia and New Jersey "it could have a cascading effect on the party, prompting Democrats to pull back from President Biden and his ambitious agenda, and perhaps even drive some to retirement," The New York Times' Jonathan Martin reported.

The party has plenty of problems already. Biden's approval remains underwater. Only 42 percent of adults approve of Biden's overall job as president, according to a new NBC News poll, NBC News' Mark Murray wrote. Plus, 7 in 10 adults said they believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction.

Down the Ballot

RETIREMENT WATCH — Kinzinger will not run for reelection, he announced on Friday, POLITICO's Ally Mutnick, Olivia Beavers and Quint Forgey reported. Kinzinger's decision came after the Illinois state legislature passed a new congressional map that drew Kinzinger into the same district as Republican Rep. Darin LaHood. Kinzinger is the second pro-impeachment Republican to retire this cycle, following Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez.

— Speaking of Illinois, Democratic Reps. Sean Casten and Marie Newman both said Friday they will run in the newly drawn IL-06, creating a member-vs.-member primary that could see Newman run to Casten's left, Ally wrote (for Pros).

POLL POSITION — Walker is the frontrunner in Georgia's Republican Senate primary, POLITICO's Natalie Allison wrote. A new internal poll commissioned by a pro-Walker super PAC shows the former football star has the backing of nearly three-quarters of Republican primary voters, while Republican rival state Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black had 6 percent of support. The poll was conducted by GOP political consulting firm OnMessage Inc. Walker had support from 61 percent of self-described moderate Republicans, and 81 percent of conservatives. The poll commissioned by the super PAC 34N22 Leadership surveyed 400 likely Republican primary voters from Oct. 11-14.

FIRST IN SCORE: PAC ATTACK — The new Save Democracy PAC launches today, a Democratic group focused on protecting voting rights, securing elections and getting dark money out of politics. The group was co-founded by Democratic strategist Matt Liebman, and plans to spend more than $3 million in secretary of state elections in Ohio, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Minnesota, along with House and Senate races. The PAC has already raised more than $600,000.

BOOK CLUB — Pennsylvania Democrats filed an FEC complaint against Republican Senate candidate Sean Parnell. The complaint alleges that Parnell "improperly profited from his best-selling books his campaign purchased and then gave away to supporters and promoted on its social media channels," Pittsburgh City Paper's John Micek wrote. The complaint was filed by state Democratic Party Executive Director Jason Henry.

THE MAP LINES — Georgia state lawmakers will begin drawing the state's new political maps this week. Ahead of the special session that begins Wednesday, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Mark Niesse and Maya Prabhu have a look at Georgia's changing demographics.

— North Carolina state Sen. Ralph Hise filed Republicans' official redistricting plans on Friday, The News & Observer's Will Doran reported. Hise filed two bills containing the proposed state Senate and congressional maps. The NAACP and Common Cause filed a lawsuit asking courts to intervene before lawmakers vote on the maps, the groups announced in a press conference Friday.

PRIMARY SOURCES — Florida Democrats Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, Dale Holness and Barbara Sharief are locked in the extremely close and volatile FL-20 special election primary to replace the late Rep. Alcee Hastings, according to a new poll commissioned by Pro-Israel America. The survey, which was conducted by Expedition Strategies, found Cherfilus-McCormick had 15 percent of support among likely Democratic primary voters, Holness had 14 percent and Sharief had 13 percent. The poll surveyed 500 likely Democratic primary voters from Oct. 20-24.

— EMILY's List endorsed Sharief, a leading woman candidate in the race.

THE GARDEN STATE — New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy and Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli spent the weekend traveling the state ahead of Tuesday's election, POLITICO New Jersey's Daniel Han wrote (for Pros). Murphy holds a single-digit lead over Ciattarelli, according to recent polls, although the Republican insisted the race is closer than it appears.

HINDSIGHT IS 2020 — Wisconsin state Elections Commissioner Dean Knudson, a Republican, said others in his party are looking for a scapegoat after Trump lost the election. GOP lawmakers are calling on Knudson to step down after Racine County Sheriff Chris Schmaling "accused him and other commissioners of committing felonies by telling election clerks to mail absentee ballots to nursing homes instead of visiting them in person during the COVID-19 pandemic," the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Patrick Marley reported.

THE EMPIRE STATE — The race for New York governor kicked into gear last week. State Attorney General Tish James launched her campaign against Gov. Kathy Hochul. New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, who had been exploring a bid, filed to run. Outgoing New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio filed with the state Board of Elections to open a committee that allows him to raise money for a possible campaign, POLITICO New York's Sally Goldenberg reported.

— Meanwhile in New York City, Queens native Donald Trump is looming large in a few city council races, The New York Times' Katie Glueck reported. Even as the GOP will be shut out from most offices in the deep blue city, one Democrat running for the council in a Republican-friendly Brooklyn district won't say who he voted for in 2020.

PLEADING THE FIFTH — Minnesota Sens. Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith and Gov. Tim Walz oppose a ballot question that would replace the Minneapolis police department with a new public safety agency, but the high-profile Democrats have not campaigned against the proposal, the Star Tribune's Hunter Woodall wrote. Meanwhile, state Attorney General Keith Ellison and Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) are campaigning in support of the ballot question.

FLORIDA MAN — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis seems unbeatable a year ahead of the gubernatorial election, and the prospect is worrying Democrats in the Sunshine State, POLITICO Florida's Gary Fineout reported (for Pros). Florida Democrats fear the state, which has been trending red, is no longer a battleground.

"This is not the place Democrats expected to be three years ago when DeSantis beat then-Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum by just under 34,000 votes," Gary points out. Now, DeSantis has $60 million in his war chest, and Biden's approval in the state has cratered.

— Republicans should dump big business, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) will say in his remarks at the National Conservatism Conference in Orlando today, Axios' Alayna Treene and Sarah Mucha wrote. Rubio is facing a challenge from Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.) next year. Rubio's speech is titled "We Need Corporate Patriotism to Defeat American Marxism."

TRUMP CARD — Republicans running for statewide office are echoing Trump's false claims that the 2020 election was stolen, The Washington Post reports. "By the end of summer, nearly a third of the 390 GOP candidates who had expressed interest in running for statewide office publicly supported a partisan audit, downplayed the Jan. 6 attack or directly questioned Biden's victory," according to The Post. That includes 10 secretary of state candidates, a position which oversees elections in many states.

THE GRANITE STATE — Former Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) isn't ruling out another run for political office, Dave Wedge writes for Boston Magazine. Brown's wife, former TV news reporter Gail Huff Brown, is running against Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.). But Brown may not stay on the political sidelines in the future. "I have another run in me," Brown said. "Just not right now."

 

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Presidential Big Board

DAY IN COURT — San Marcos, Texas, police officials did not give Biden's campaign bus an escort during a 2020 incident when Trump supporters surrounded the vehicle on a highway last year, according to new legal filings. Documents filed Friday in the federal "Trump Train" lawsuit show law enforcement "privately laughed" and "joked about the victims and their distress," the Texas Tribune's Kate McGee reported.

CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY — "Rep. Steve Harshman apologizes after cursing Rep. Chuck Gray on hot mic" — Casper Star-Tribune

 

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