Monday, November 8, 2021

T-minus 365 days until the midterms

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Score is your guide to the year-round campaign cycle.
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By Stephanie Murray

Quick Fix

— The 2022 midterms are only a year away. Here's where things stand 365 days ahead of Election Day.

— Republican donor Miriam Adelson is stepping back into the political arena after the death of her husband Sheldon Adelson.

— The race for Pennsylvania governor got more crowded over the weekend, with two Republicans making moves to enter the race.

Good Monday morning. Email me at smurray@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @stephanie_murr.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, zmontellaro@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @ZachMontellaro and @allymutnick.

Days until the FL-20 special election: 64

Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 365

Days until the 2024 election: 1,093

TopLine

ONE YEAR OUT — Today marks the one-year mark ahead of the 2022 midterms. Republicans just made significant gains in Virginia and New Jersey, and President Joe Biden's approval rating is dipping below 40 percent in some polls. The party out of power traditionally does well in the midterms, and things are looking good for the GOP. But after the events of the last two years, your Score host is pretty convinced anything can happen.

Here are five questions we'll try to answer over the next 365 days.

Is it 2010 all over again in the House? Republicans are gearing up to take the speaker's gavel in the House next year, POLITICO's Ally Mutnick wrote. Aggressive redistricting is benefitting the party, and candidates are using online donations to pack their war chests. Sensing a strong tailwind this fall, Republicans considering campaigns against Democrats have begun making moves. Some possible new recruits include former Michigan state Attorney General Bill Schuette and California Republican Ricky Gill. Meanwhile, Republican lobbyists say their clients will start cozying up to GOP congressional offices, sensing the GOP will be back in power soon, POLITICO's Hailey Fuchs reported.

Can Democrats hang onto the Senate? Republicans are feeling so good about the political environment that they're looking at Colorado, a state that's been trending blue, as a pickup opportunity in the Senate, POLITICO's Natalie Allison wrote. Still, the map gives Democrats a slight advantage. Control of the Senate is likely to come down to Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and New Hampshire, and the party doesn't have to defend any seats in states former President Donald Trump won last year.

Will Republicans keep their grip on rural America? Virginia Gov.-elect Glenn Youngkin won the rural areas of his state in a big way, while Democrats got record-low vote shares, POLITICO's Zach Montellaro and Elena Schneider wrote. That's ringing alarm bells in the Democratic Party, especially because rural voters play a crucial role in battleground states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which both have gubernatorial and Senate elections next year. Republicans "have wiped out Democratic officeholders in rural communities, leaving their party with fewer ambassadors to reach out to rural voters."

Can Biden bounce back? Biden's approval rating is at an anemic 38 percent, according to a new poll from USA Today and Suffolk University. The president has done a worse job as president than 46 percent of voters expected, the survey found, and his support among independent voters has collapsed. Plus, Democrats' edge on the generic ballot has disappeared. Forty-six percent of voters said they would cast a ballot for a Republican congressional candidate, and 38 percent said they would vote for a Democrat. The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from Nov. 3-5.

How strong is Trump's endorsement? We'll get our first test of Trump's endorsement in March, when North Carolina Republicans pick a Senate candidate. Trump is backing Rep. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) against former Gov. Pat McCrory and former Rep. Mark Walker (R-N.C.). A candidate would be "foolish" not to accept Trump's endorsement, NRSC chair Rick Scott said during a television appearance Sunday, but added a warning, POLITICO's Annie Bryan wrote. "You're going to win not because somebody endorses you," Scott said. The conservative Club for Growth, which is backing Budd, released a poll last week showing McCrory (36 percent) just slightly ahead of Budd (33 percent), a narrowing of the former governor's lead earlier this year.

 

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Down the Ballot

MONEY MOVES — Adelson, a GOP mega donor, is preparing for the 2022 and 2024 political cycles, after the death of her husband Sheldon Adelson, a casino mogul and longtime GOP kingmaker, POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt wrote. Adelson "quietly held meetings in her Las Vegas home with a select group of GOP leaders and potential 2024 presidential candidates in the last few days." Among those who have met with Adelson: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and NRSC Chair Rick Scott.

GETTING IN — Pennsylvania Republican Dave White launched a campaign for governor, and GOP state Sen. Doug Mastriano opened an exploratory committee for the same office, The Philadelphia Inquirer's Andrew Seidman reported. White has already put $2 million into his campaign. Meanwhile, Republican state Senate President Pro Tempore Jake Corman is expected to launch a bid for governor on Thursday.

INFRASTRUCTURE WEEK — The House sent a $550 billion infrastructure bill to Biden's desk on Friday, after months of tense negotiations over the legislation, POLITICO's Nicholas Wu reported. Democrats were eager to pass a bill they can campaign on in the 2022 midterms.

The 13 Republicans who voted for the bill included three retirees: Reps. Anthony Gonzalez (R-Ohio), Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) and Tom Reed (R-N.Y.). Four GOP 'yes' votes came from New York: Reps. Andrew Garbarino, John Katko, Nicole Malliotakis and Reed. And of the 10 Republicans who voted for Trump's impeachment, four voted for the infrastructure bill. Of the Democrats who voted no, all six are progressives who were first elected in 2018 or 2020. Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.), Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), Cori Bush (D-Mo.) and Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.).

MIDTERM MESSAGING — Democrats are conducting focus groups and trying to figure out what went wrong in last week's election. But some in the party don't seem optimistic that they'll right the ship after losses in Virginia and New Jersey, POLITICO's David Siders reported. "Democrats lost the culture wars, but they also got pinned down on the economy. They were drubbed in rural areas and with non-college educated whites, but they also lost independents in the suburbs. And two issues that worked so well for Democrats last year — the coronavirus and Donald Trump — no longer resonated as much with voters," David wrote.

FIRST IN SCORE: I'M JUST A BILL — A coalition of 50 good government and liberal groups are sending a letter to members of Congress a year from the midterms, warning them of potential threats to democracy, Zach writes in. "Our democracy faces an existential threat—the very real possibility that the outcome of an election could be ignored and the will of the people overturned by hyperpartisan actors," the organizations, including Public Citizen, MoveOn, and Protect Democracy, write. They urge Congress to pass the Freedom to Vote Act, Democrats' voting rights legislation that is stalled in the Senate.

NOTABLE FLOATABLES — New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu will decide whether to challenge Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) in the next week, Fox News' Paul Steinhauser and Robert Sherman reported. "I'll probably come to some decision in the next week or so. Maybe sooner," Sununu said during his visit to the Republican Jewish Coalition's annual leadership summit in Las Vegas.

POLL POSITION — Texas GOP Gov. Greg Abbott leads former Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) in a hypothetical gubernatorial match-up, according to a poll from the University of Texas at Austin and The Texas Tribune. Abbott had 46 percent of support, and O'Rourke had 37 percent, the Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek wrote. Abbott's approval has improved in recent months but remains at 43 percent. Only 35 percent of voters have a favorable view of O'Rourke. The poll surveyed 1,200 voters from Oct. 22-31.

OLD DOMINION — Republicans won control of the Virginia state House of Delegates, POLITICO's Liz Crampton wrote. The victory was made official several days after the Nov. 2 election, after late-arriving mail-in ballots were counted. Democrats flipped the chamber in 2019.

THE SILVER STATE — The power struggle among Nevada Democrats could ruin the party's chances of winning in 2022, POLITICO's Holly Otterbein reported. Earlier this year, Democratic socialists took over the state Democratic Party, leading the state political machine to splinter from the official party. Democrats Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and Gov. Steve Sisolak, supported by a coordinated campaign separate from the state party apparatus, are now without crucial voter data. Biden won Nevada by 2 points last year.

THE SUNSHINE STATE — The FL-20 recount to replace the late Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Fla.) is underway, POLITICO Florida's Gary Fineout wrote. South Florida health care CEO Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick led Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness in the Democratic primary by five votes after officials in Broward and Palm Beach counties conducted an automatic machine recount followed by a hand recount of some ballots. Ballots that were postmarked by Election Day and arrive by Sept. 12 will be counted, and could sway the outcome.

THE MAP LINES — With the support of the liberal National Redistricting Foundation, a group of North Carolina voters are suing over the state's new congressional map, claiming the new boundaries are "a partisan gerrymander in violation of the Free Elections, Equal Protection, Freedom of Speech, and Freedom of Assembly Clauses of the North Carolina Constitution."

— Michigan's independent redistricting commission narrowed its congressional proposals down to three maps. "The maps make a serious dent in the GOP advantage baked into the current lines, but would still lean Republican by some measures. One measure shows the maps would slightly favor Democrats and predicts a 7-6 edge for the party in the state's congressional delegation," the Detroit Free Press' Clara Hendrickson reported.

— Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan formally accepted draft political maps drawn by his redistricting commission, but the maps aren't likely to go far, Maryland Matters' Bruce DePuyt reported. Hogan plans to introduce the maps when lawmakers convene for a special session Dec. 6. Democratic state lawmakers have their own redistricting commission and have been working on separate maps.

THE GARDEN STATE — New Jersey state Senate president Steve Sweeney's loss was part of a "tsunami that took place at the end that nobody saw coming," according to Democratic powerbroker George Norcross. Sweeney, a Democrat and the second-most powerful politician in the state, lost to Republican Edward Durr, who spent little on his campaign and has never held office, The Philadelphia Inquirer's Allison Steele, Andrew Seidman, and Jonathan Tamari wrote. Norcross said he hopes Sweeney runs for governor in four years.

THE GRAND CANYON STATE — Arizona Republican Blake Masters will get a fundraising boost from Trump, POLITICO's Natalie Allison wrote. Trump has not endorsed in the Senate primary, but he is scheduled to attend a Masters fundraiser at his Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach. State Attorney General Mark Brnovich is also running in the GOP primary for a chance to take on Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.).

— Youngkin's victory in Virginia is stoking questions about Arizona GOP Gov. Doug Ducey, the Arizona Republic's Stacey Barchenger wrote. Ducey, who is term-limited, won reelection in 2018 by focusing on a similar message as Youngkin: the economy, jobs and education. The governor has not said whether he will run for another office. Ducey has faced criticism over his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, and from Trump supporters when he certified the 2020 election results.

THE PROCESS — Wisconsin state Assembly Speaker Robin Vos must turn over records related to a secret 2020 election review led by Republicans, a judge ordered on Friday. The review is being led by former state Supreme Court Justice Michael Gableman, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Patrick Marley reported. The liberal group American Oversight requested records related to the taxpayer-funded investigation, but Vos did not produce all the records.

 

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CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY — "Virginia Gov.-elect Youngkin's underaged son tried to vote in Tuesday's election, elections officials said" — The Washington Post

 

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