We Did it: Census response data lagging in Latino communities — Republicans bail on Georgia House candidate after racist videos surface

Jun 18, 2020

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Quick Fix

— New data shows that the self-response rate to the census in Latino communities is lagging behind the rest of the country, which could have a major effect on redistricting.

— Republican leaders are condemning Marjorie Taylor Greene, who is headed to a primary runoff for a safe-red Georgia House seat, after POLITICO reported on racist videos she posted.

— New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, arguably New York's two most-powerful politicians, threw their support behind Rep. Eliot Engel as he faces a tough primary challenge.

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Days until the Kentucky, New York and Virginia primaries and Mississippi, North Carolina and South Carolina primary runoffs: 5

Days until the Democratic convention: 60

Days until the Republican convention: 68

Days until the 2020 election: 138

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TopLine

COUNTING EVERYONE — The census response rate in Latino communities is dragging, which could have a major downstream effect on redistricting in the New Year.

New data released by the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials Education Fund, in partnership with Telemundo, paints a bleak picture of the self-response rate in Latino communities. "From looking at it from all perspectives, we've come to a very decent understanding that as the Latino share of the population increases, the self-response rate decreases," Dorian Caal, NALEO's director of civic engagement research, told Score.

Caal shared these stark numbers with Score: As of June 15, counties that had less than a 20 percent share of Latinos as their population saw an average self-response rate of about 56 percent. That number creeps down as the Latino population increases. In counties where at least 20 percent of the population is Latino, it was near 48 percent. At 40 percent Latino population, it hit about a 42 percent self-response rate. And when a county was over 75 percent Latino, it plummeted to a bit under a 33 percent self-response rate.

These numbers are all coming in well below the national average. On Monday, the national response rate was 61.4 percent, and the the NALEO and Telemundo analysis also notes that response rates in five of the six states that are home to two-thirds of the national Latino population — Arizona, California, Florida, New Mexico, New York and Texas — are below the national average. (California is about a point better.)

"Ultimately, we want a full and complete and accurate count in the United States," Caal said. "It is going to affect the next ten years. Not only the funding at the local level, but affect the way redistricting happens. … If there is any sort of undercount, it could be very detrimental."

There are efforts to boost that self-response rate among Latinos. NALEO and Telemundo hosted a joint day of action on Wednesday to encourage Latinos to fill out their census forms, and community groups and government agencies have worked to push all Americans to fill out the census. But, like the rest of the country's operations, these plans have been thrown off by the pandemic.

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Presidential Big Board

THE PROCESS — Georgia Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger announced that his office will not mail ballot request forms to Georgia's voters for November, as it did for the primary, but that his office will instead set up a website where voters can request a ballot, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Mark Niesse reported. Raffensperger also called for more voting locations in November after the debacle in the primary earlier this month and "asked state lawmakers to pass a bill that would give the State Election Board power to intervene in county elections management."

— New Jersey election officials are warning that the state is not prepared for the July 7 presidential and downballot primaries, POLITICO New Jersey's Matt Friedman reported (for Pros). More from Matt: "A new statewide voter registration system is not ready for what will be a mostly vote-by-mail election, county election officials said. A promised public education campaign from the state hasn't materialized, said one county clerk, while another warned that results may not be known until weeks after Election Day. Some voiced concern the U.S. Postal Service won't be able to cope with the crush of ballots."

— Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican and a ally of President Donald Trump, "took steps to help localities prepare for what could be high voter turnout this year, but stopped short of extending early voting or letting counties consolidate polling places in the battleground," POLITICO Florida's Gary Fineout reported. "DeSantis called on schools to close during the August primary and November general election to make room for what might be record voter turnout. He also issued an executive order that makes it easier for state employees to work at the polls on Election Day. … The announcements were relayed late Wednesday in a letter from Secretary of State Laurel Lee to the state's 67 election supervisors."

RALPH TO THE RESCUE — As Democrats worry about Joe Biden's outreach to Hispanic voters , the Latino Victory Project announced that it has added top Miami trial lawyer Ralph Patino to its board along with Capricia Marshall, Ambassador-in-Residence at the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center at the Atlantic Council, POLITICO's Marc Caputo writes in.

Their goal: raise about $4 million in less than five months to turn out Hispanic voters in Florida, primarily in the Miami and Orlando areas, where activists fret that there's little tangible sign of Biden's campaign. Patino, a member of the Democratic National Finance Committee, established himself as a top Florida moneyman in 2012 when he helped raise $36 million for the DNC as part of the Futuro Fund, along with actress Eva Longoria and Henry Muñoz, former DNC finance chair.

THE CASH DASH — The Trump Victory Finance Committee announced it would launch a "Senate Captains" program, which charges senators to help raise money for the committee. (The campaign launched a similar program for House members recently.) Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will be the program's lead, and the co-captains are Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) and Rob Portman (R-Ohio).

Down the Ballot

TAKING A PASS — House Republicans are racing away from Greene, who won the top spot in the GA-14 GOP primary runoff. POLITICO's Ally Mutnick and Melanie Zanona reported that, in a series of videos, Greene expressed "racist, Islamophobic and anti-Semitic views." She "suggested that Muslims do not belong in government; thinks black people 'are held slaves to the Democratic Party'; called George Soros, a Jewish Democratic megadonor, a Nazi; and said she would feel 'proud' to see a Confederate monument if she were black because it symbolizes progress made since the Civil War."

Greene broke 40 percent in the Georgia primary last week, and she will face John Cowan on Aug. 11. A spokesperson for House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy called her comments "appalling." House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) condemned the comments and in a statement that he'll be supporting Cowan in the runoff, as have some members of the Georgia delegation.

PRIMARY PROBLEMS — By the end of the week, will there be any Democrat who hasn't weighed in on the hyper-competitive primary in NY-16 between Engel and Jamaal Bowman? Engel picked up the endorsement of two prominent New Yorkers: Cuomo and Schumer. "Eliot Engel has been a strong and effective fighter for the people of his district and all Americans — and I am proud to endorse him," Schumer said in a statement, first reported by Jewish Insider's Jacob Kornbluh. (Just last week, Schumer held off from endorsing Engel.)

Bowman picked up the endorsement of Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) on Wednesday as well.

— In the Kentucky Democratic Senate primary, more endorsements are rolling in for Charles Booker, including Pressley and the national group Indivisible. Campaign Pro's James Arkin has more.

ON THE AIRWAVES — Senate Majority PAC, the Democratic super PAC, is out with a rebuttal ad in Colorado defending former Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper. "The truth is, 95 of the 97 Republican allegations were dismissed," the ad's narrator says.

— The NRSC is out with a new ad, saying Maine Democrat Sara Gideon "dragged her feet" on calling for an investigation into a Democratic state legislator "accused of preying on underage girls." The party committee's ad then pivots to promoting GOP Sen. Susan Collins. She "makes the tough calls. You might not agree with all of them, but she's been there for Maine."

— Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) is out with a new ad attacking Democrat Mark Kelly over China, with a person in the ad (who is identified as Glen from Mesa, Ariz.) saying he trusts McSally.

— Good Jobs MT, the DGA's arm in Montana, released its first ad of the state's gubernatorial race. The ad goes negative on GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte on health care and taxes, and does not mention the Democratic nominee, Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney.

— Democrat Claire Russo, who is one of the Democrats running in the VA-05 primary on Tuesday, is out with a new ad attacking Republican nominee Bob Good over abortion rights.

— Democrat Pritesh Gandhi is out with a new ad ahead of the primary runoff in TX-10. "As a doctor, I took an oath to protect my patients," he says in the ad. "But I never thought I'd have to protect them from their own president."

— Two incumbents facing primary challengers are out with new ads: Freshman GOP Rep. Steve Watkins in KS-02 and Democratic Rep. Richie Neal in MA-01. The Watkins ad notes that Trump endorsed him in the midterms. (He has not yet done so this cycle.) The Neal ad has local elected officials and community leaders praising him.

THE CASH DASH — New Hampshire Republican Gov. Chris Sununu has raised just under $1.2 million since he announced he was running last year and has $729,000 on hand, per the Concord Monitor's Paul Steinhauser . On the Democratic side, state Senate Majority Leader Dan Feltes said he's raised $916,000 since he launched his bid, with $480,000 on hand, and executive councilor Andru Volinsky raised $468,000 with $110,000 in the bank.

SIDELINES — Sen. Angus King (I-Maine) said he'd likely sit out the state's Senate race in an interview on Maine Public Radio . (He had backed Collins in 2014.) "I think the people of Maine can figure out how to vote without my guidance," he said.

WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE — Trump has backed two Republicans in competitive primaries in New Hampshire: Corky Messner for the Senate race and Matt Mowers for NH-01. WMUR's John DiStaso reported that their opponents "were told by a high-ranking RNC official during the weekend that Messner and Mowers will receive the full support of Trump Victory," despite "a national party rule that forbids the RNC taking sides in primaries without the approval of the three members of the RNC from the state in question." In New Hampshire, the state party requires RNC members to be neutral, and one RNC member told WMUR that he had not signed off on any spending.

ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Americans for Prosperity Action has backed Republican Victoria Spartz in the open seat, battleground IN-05.

THE SENATE MAP — More problems for Chris Janicek, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Nebraska: The New York Times published a story Thursday night that included allegations that Janicek used a racial slur at a party roughly 20 years ago. Janicek told The Times' Maggie Astor he is "denying any and all accusations."

TECH TALK — One thing that slipped under my radar from Facebook's announcement that it was rolling out a voter center to try to register voters was that it'd also allow users to block political ads. Adweek's Scott Nover : "Facebook said users will be able to turn off 'all social issues, electoral or political ads from candidates, Super PACs or other organizations that have the 'Paid for by' political disclaimer on them.' Users can opt out in their ad settings or by clicking on preferences for that individual ad." The option is rolling out over Facebook and Instagram over the next few weeks.

CODA — SIGN OF THE APOCALYPSE OF THE DAY: Perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian won a Republican primary by 17 votes in a race for the Douglas County, Nev., Commission, and he doesn't have a Democratic opponent in November, per The Nevada Independent. (His opponent is calling for a recount.)

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