THE SOONER STATE — On Tuesday, Republicans in the Oklahoma City metro area will whittle down a large field vying to take on Democratic Rep. Kendra Horn in what should be the easiest GOP pickup in the country: Oklahoma's 5th District. But House Democrats have some reason for optimism. Horn is sitting on a war chest of $2.4 million. And an already late primary is almost certain to head into an August runoff, meaning it could be two more months before the GOP has a nominee. Four candidates in the district have posted significant fundraising : State Sen. Stephanie Bice, businesswoman Terry Neese, former state school superintendent Janet Barresi and businessman David Hill. Republicans watching the race think that Neese, who served as the GOP's nominee for lieutenant governor in 1990, is likely to snag one of the spots in the runoff. She's self-funded to the tune of $450,000. Bice has been the field's best fundraiser and has an endorsement from Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.). She raised just under $1.1 million through June 10 and is the highest in the NRCC's Young Guns program. Bice is in the second level of the program, while Hill and Neese are in the first level. And, in what's probably not a huge surprise, the Club for Growth has waded into the race. The Club's political arm has launched a handful of anti-Bice ads as of late, including one that linked her to "convicted rapist and Democrat donor Harvey Weinstein." Bice's campaign shot back with an ad of their own, declaring the Club as "never Trumper D.C. swamp lobbyists." (The Club has not backed any candidate in the race, they're just anti-Bice.) Club for Growth Action has been the only major outside spender thus far. The race is the lowest of hanging fruit for Republicans . In 2018, Horn won by about 3,000 votes against incumbent Republican Rep. Steve Russell, who did not take his reelection seriously. And ahead of the general election, groups have already booked plenty of airtime. For the general election, the GOP super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund has reserved $934,000 worth of airtime, according to Advertising Analytics. The NRCC reserved $743,000, and Democratic super PAC House Majority PAC booked $730,000. But no matter what, at least one — very possibly two — women will advance to the runoff, as House Republicans try to recruit and elect more women. So far Republicans have nominated at least 15 women in open or battleground seats — though only one, Mary Miller in IL-15, will avoid a competitive general election. |
STILL TOO EARLY — Booker has inched past McGrath in the Kentucky vote count, but don't read too much into it. Campaign Pro's James Arkin and I wrote that it is far too early to draw any conclusions about the Democratic primary, because the vast majority of votes haven't been counted yet and aren't expected until Tuesday. Take Louisville, for example: Roughly 14,000 in-person votes have been counted for both parties' primaries — but that was only in-person voting. The county clerk received roughly 161,000 absentee ballots as of Thursday morning, and more can come in through close of business on Saturday, as long as they were postmarked by Election Day. POLL POSITION — We have a windfall of battleground Senate polls. (What a great time to be alive.) First, some polling from The New York Times/Siena College. In Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly is at 47 percent to 38 percent for GOP Sen. Martha McSally (650 registered voters; June 8-16; +/- 4.3 percentage point MOE). In Michigan, Democratic Sen. Gary Peters leads Republican John James 41 percent to 31 percent (610 registered voters; June 8-17; +/- 4.3 percentage point MOE). And the race is tight in North Carolina: Democrat Cal Cunningham is at 42 percent, for 39 percent for GOP Sen. Thom Tillis (653 registered voters; June 8-18; +/- 4.1 percentage point MOE). The North Carolina poll also brought us a matchup between Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Forest. Cooper leads, 50 percent to 39 percent. And the aforementioned Fox News polls also hit on the Senate races. (Our thanks to the pollsters for including the Senate race!) Republican Sen. John Cornyn is leading both his potential Democratic challengers in Texas. He leads MJ Hegar 46 percent to 36 percent, and leads Royce West 47 percent to 37 percent. In North Carolina, Cunningham is at 39 percent and Tillis is at 37 percent, with two third-party candidates each pulling in 3 percent. And in Georgia, Republican Sen. David Perdue is at 45 percent to 42 percent for Democrat Jon Ossoff. (Alas, they did not test the special election for GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler's seat.) — We have a Colorado Democratic Senate primary poll. In a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KUSA-TV and Colorado Politics, former Gov. John Hickenlooper is up over Andrew Romanoff, 58 percent to 28 percent (575 likely primary voters; June 19-24; +/- 6.1 credibility interval). THE CASH DASH — We have pre-primary reports for the battleground House primaries on July 7. These reports cover April 1-June 17. NJ-02: Freshman GOP Rep. Jeff Van Drew raised $288,000, spent $415,000 and has $1.1 million in the bank (filing ). Primary opponent Robert Patterson raised $53,000, spent $88,000 and has $48,000 in the bank (filing). Democrat Amy Kennedy raised $584,000 (which includes a $250,000 loan), spent $756,000 and has $236,000 in cash on hand (filing). Brigid Callahan Harrison raised $157,000 (which includes a $60,000 loan), spent $325,000 (which includes a $50,000 loan repayment) and has $10,000 on hand ( filing). Will Cunningham raised $74,000, spent $50,000 and has $56,000 in cash on hand (filing). NJ-03: Freshman Democratic Rep. Andy Kim raised $718,000, spent $210,000 and has $3.2 million in cash on hand ( filing). Republican David Richter raised $27,000, spent $282,000 and has $208,000 in cash on hand (filing). Kate Gibbs raised $65,000 (including a $5,000 loan), spent $95,000 and has $82,000 in the bank (filing). NJ-05: Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer raised $894,000, spent $294,000 and has $8.5 million in the bank (filing). His primary opponent Arati Kreibich raised $192,000, spent $181,000 and has $145,000 in cash on hand (filing). Republican Frank Pallotta raised $13,000, spent $269,000 and has $41,000 in cash on hand ( filing). John McCann raised $11,000, spent $3,000 and has $12,000 in the bank (filing). Hector Castillo raised $140 (which includes $40 from the candidate), spent $42,000 and has $4,000 in the bank (filing). NJ-07: Freshman Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski raised $560,000, spent $270,000 and has $3 million in cash on hand (filing). Republican Tom Kean raised $257,000, spent $188,000 and has $1.2 million in cash on hand (filing). NJ-11: Freshman Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill raised $637,000, spent $227,000 and has $3.2 million in cash on hand (filing). Republican Rosemary Becchi raised $116,000, spent $145,000 and has $224,000 in the bank (filing). THE HOUSE MAP — We have no official call in NY-24 yet, but Democrat Franis Conole conceded the primary to Dana Balter. This'll be another rematch from the midterms, when GOP Rep. John Katko won by about 5 points. — Three of the Democrats vying to face Van Drew in NJ-02 — Kennedy, Harrison and Cunningham — met for a debate on Thursday evening, where they "didn't hesitate to embrace progressive positions," POLITICO New Jersey's Matt Friedman reported (for Pros). FIRST IN SCORE — ON THE AIRWAVES — VoteVets PAC is going up with a cable buy backing Democrat Kim Olson ahead of the primary runoff in TX-24 on July 14. The ad is a positive bio spot , highlighting her military service and saying she will "stand down a coward who misuses our troops," featuring a video of Trump. The group said it is a $100,000 buy. — Maine Democrat Sara Gideon released a new ad pushing back on recent NRSC attack ads that say she did not take action fast enough with a now-former Democratic legislator in the state who was accused of "preying on teenage girls." Gideon called the attacks "false" and "way over the line." — The NRSC released a new ad continuing to attack Hickenlooper over the state's ethics commission ruling that he violated state ethics laws as governor. Senate Majority PAC released a rebuttal ad, defending Hickenlooper on the ethics commission ruling and attacking Gardner by tying him to Trump. ENDORSEMENT CORNER — The U.S. Chamber of Commerce backed Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) for reelection. CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I'd prefer he do it. You know he's not gonna do it." — Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), on Trump wearing a mask, to POLITICO. |
No comments:
Post a Comment