Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Who will Democrats pick in the now-open VA-05? — The last call in Georgia — More endorsements flow in ahead of Tuesday’s primaries

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Jun 17, 2020 View in browser
 
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By Zach Montellaro

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Quick Fix

— Democrats may have a better shot at flipping VA-05, after freshman GOP Rep. Denver Riggleman was ousted at a party convention. Who will Democrats choose as their nominee?

— Carolyn Bourdeaux won the Democratic primary outright in GA-07, closing the books on June 9 primaries a week later.

— Prominent national Democrats continue to pick sides in the windup to a slate of primaries on Tuesday, when the progressive wing of the party is hoping to notch a big win.

Good Wednesday morning. Email me at zmontellaro@politico.com, or follow me on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the rest of the Campaign Pro team at sshepard@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @JamesArkin and @allymutnick.

Days until the Kentucky, New York and Virginia primaries and Mississippi, North Carolina and South Carolina primary runoffs: 6

Days until the Democratic convention: 61

Days until the Republican convention: 69

Days until the 2020 election: 139

 

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TopLine

ON THE MAP? — Democrats are hopeful that VA-05 has come online in the battle for the House after Riggleman was ousted in a party convention by Bob Good, who rallied conversative activists in the district to give the freshman congressman the boot after he officiated a same-sex marriage. But first, Democrats need to land on a candidate.

Democrats will head to the polls on Tuesday to pick between four candidates for the right to face Good in the now-open seat: R.D. Huffstetler, Cameron Webb, Claire Russo and John Lesinski. Huffstetler has led the field in fundraising, but other candidates have attracted significant outside spending boosting their campaigns as well, and we've seen no public polling giving us an insight into the race.

Webb, a practicing physician, has picked up support of 314 Action, which supports Democratic candidates with STEM roots. Russo, a Marine veteran who garnered national attention after she released an ad talking about when she was sexually assaulted in the military and took the case to court after the military wouldn't act, has the backing of EMILY's List. Huffstetler — who is also a Marine veteran — has the backing of VoteVets, but the veteran-focused Democratic group has spent less on the race than both 314 Action and Women Vote!, the super PAC arm of EMILY's List.

Democrats are newly emboldened about the district after Riggleman went down to Good. The 2018 race, which was also an open seat race, was a bit off an odd one. (If the phrase "Bigfoot erotica" has been ringing in your ears and you can't quite remember why, this is why.) But ultimately, Riggleman had a fairly straightforward path through the general election.

But some think Good could be a different story. His pre-convention cash on hand total was a paltry $34,000. "National Republicans are going to have to spend money to retain the seat," one longtime GOP operative in the state told Campaign Pro's Ally Mutnick before the convention. "And they shouldn't have to."

There are also questions remaining about the convention. Riggleman contends there was "voting irregularities and ballot stuffing" and said he is "evaluating all our options" on Saturday, but has not publicly said anything since. And Good — along with state Del. Nick Freitas, who is running in VA-07 — actually hasn't qualified for the ballot in November. The state Republican Party asked for the state board of elections to provide a blanket extension (they're meeting on July 7), and a member of the board told WDBJ's Joe Dashiell that he expected the extension to be granted.

 

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Presidential Big Board

CONVENTION SPOTTING — Republicans may be moving the party to Jacksonville. But convention organizers are still on the hook for "tens of millions" in contract liabilities in Charlotte, N.C., The Charlotte Observer's Jim Morrill reported. "I've got contracts that are a couple inches thick of what people promised to do, and they've breached them," John Lassiter, the CEO of the Charlotte host committee, said. "Now we're trying to figure out how you work through the wind-down on an effort we've been focused on for two years."

VEEPSTAKES — Sen. Elizabeth Warren's chances at being Joe Biden's vice presidential pick could be boosted due to support among prominent black activists and elected officials. "Areas where Biden would have difficulty communicating, I think that's a gap that she could close," Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes told McClatchy's David Catanese . "I look at groups of Black voters that coalesced around her … I think that [she] is the strongest case for a consensus candidate."

POLLS POLLS POLLS — Pollsters aren't rigging polls, like Trump has alleged. But "some pollsters, especially the relatively few who conduct surveys in battleground states, are still grappling with the same problems that plagued those polls four years ago. In fact, most pollsters believe that, on balance, state polls are overstating the scale of Biden's advantage," Campaign Pro's Steve Shepard wrote.

More from Shep: "That was precisely the problem in 2016: The national polls were largely accurate, to within the margin of error. But there were too few state polls, and many of those that were conducted failed to collect accurate data, especially from white voters without college degrees in key swing states. And those issues haven't been fixed."

THE REELECT — President Donald Trump's campaign is shedding its "go-it-alone" mentality it had in 2016. "Trump and his two top campaign hands — White House senior adviser Jared Kushner and campaign manager Brad Parscale — have turned establishment figures into sounding boards, senators into policy directors and free-market stalwarts into the drivers of his next economic response to Covid-19," POLITICO's Gabby Orr wrote. This includes leaning on Karl Rove.

THE PROCESS — Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, a Republican, said she'd sign an executive order that restores voting rights to former felons, the Des Moines Register's Stephen Gruber-Miller and Ian Richardson reported, although the exact language isn't clear. More from the DMR: "For the past two years, Reynolds has pushed the Legislature to approve an amendment to the state constitution to make the process of regaining voting rights automatic once felons have completed their sentences. But Republicans in the Iowa Senate killed the proposal each year."

— Texas Democrats are asking the Supreme Court to weigh in on its legal battle on if the state should loosen voting by mail restrictions due to the pandemic. The Texas Tribune's Alexa Ura has more.

 

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Down the Ballot

LAST CALL — We can now close the books on the contested federal races in the June 9 primaries. Bourdeaux, who was the Democratic nominee in 2018 in GA-07, outright won her party's nomination and will face Republican Rich McCormick in November in this open, battleground seat, the Associated Press projected.

And as a warning of things to come: This was the second race in Georgia that the wire service had to un-call and recall. Initially, the AP projected that Bourdeaux would have to go to a runoff to win the nomination, but as more votes came in she crept across that line to avoid one. Late ballots can change close elections!

PRIMARY PROBLEMS — It is really all hands on deck in a handful of Democratic primaries on Tuesday, where progressives are hoping to — somewhere — pick up a big win.

— FIRST IN SCORE — NY-16: An internal poll from Jamaal Bowman, who is primarying Democratic Rep. Eliot Engel in NY-16, has him in a strong position. The text-to-web poll conducted by Data for Progress has Bowman at 41 percent to 31 percent for Engel, with 27 percent unsure who they'd vote for. Among undecided voters, Bowman had a strong advantage when they were pushed to pick a candidate. (525 likely Democratic voters; June 11-15; +/- 5.1 percentage point MOE).

Warren also became the latest powerhouse progressive to throw her support behind Bowman, as progressives coalesce around him and search for a big win. "The all-hands-on-deck strategy is a striking show of unity after the presidential campaign ended with deep rifts on the left — and it's had a catalytic effect on Bowman's bid in the run-up to the June 23 primary," POLITICO's Holly Otterbein wrote about the race.

— KY-Sen: A bit of a surprising endorsement for Charles Booker, who is trying to beat the DSCC-backed Amy McGrath: Alison Lundergan Grimes. The former secretary of state (and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's 2014 opponent) threw his support behind Booker on Tuesday. MoveOn and the Working Families Party both also backed Booker. On Tuesday, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer predicted that McGrath would ultimately win the primary, per POLITICO's Marianne LeVine.

— NY-10: Rep. Jerry Nadler, who like the rest of the Democratic delegation in New York City is facing a primary challenge, picked up the endorsement of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.)

— TX-22: In non-Democratic primary news, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce backed Troy Nehls over Kathaleen Wall in the GOP primary runoff in this battleground House seat.

ON THE AIRWAVES — Republicans launched a pair of ads attacking former Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper, who is running to challenge Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.). An ad from Gardner's campaign has a TV on a therapist's couch cycling through Hickenlooper saying he didn't want to be a senator during his presidential run. "To do this job, you probably need to want this job," Gardner says in the ad. The NRSC's ad hammers Hickenlooper over the state ethics' commission recently finding that he broke the state's gift ban laws, and also highlights that he was held in contempt as well.

— Majority Forward, the Democratic dark money group, is up with a new ad criticizing Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) for blocking Medicaid expansion.

— Democrat Mark Kelly, who is running for the Senate in Arizona, released a new ad. The ad highlights the fact that he commanded the space shuttle and that "Washington isn't solving problems."

DIGGING IN — The House Ethics Committee announced that it was extending a review into Rep. Sanford Bishop's (D-Ga.) campaign finance reports, Roll Call's Chris Marquette reported. "The Office of Congressional Ethics notified Congressman Bishop that it was reviewing his campaign's disbursement reports," a Bishop spokesperson said in a statement. "The Congressman is cooperating fully in this matter in an open and transparent way."

— The Senate Ethics Committee announced that it was ending its investigation into Sen. Kelly Loeffler's (R-Ga.) stock trading, POLITICO's Marianne LeVine reported. "Based on all the information before it, the Committee did not find evidence that your actions violated federal law, Senate Rules or standards of conduct," Deborah Sue Mayer, the committee's chief counsel, wrote in a letter to Loeffler. "Accordingly, consistent with its precedent, the Committee has dismissed the matter."

THE DEBATE STAGE — Hickenlooper and Andrew Romanoff squared off for the third (and final) Colorado Democratic Senate primary debate, which was a whopping one-and-a-half hours long. "Racial justice was a big topic during the debate, given the protests that have been taking place on the streets of Denver," The Denver Post's John Aguilar wrote. "Both candidates conceded that they had not done enough to address the issue during their time in politics."

TECH THE VOTE — Facebook is rolling out a major voter registration project, aiming to sign up 4 million people to vote leading up to November. Pro Tech's Steven Overly reported (for Pros) that the company is launching a "Voting Information Center" that'll sit atop Facebook and Instagram profiles, and that Facebook is estimating 160 million people will see the tool. Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg also wrote an op-ed in USA Today detailing the effort, as his company remains under constant fire from just about everyone for how it is handling the election.

POLLS POLLS POLLS — Another Arizona poll brings more good news for Kelly in the state's Senate race. A poll from the liberal pollster Civiqs for the progressive blog Daily Kos has Kelly up over Republican Sen. Martha McSally , 51 percent to 42 percent. Also in the poll, Biden is at 49 percent to 45 percent for Trump (1,368 registered voters; June 13-15; +/- 2.9 percentage point MOE).

51st STATE? — The House of Representatives will vote on June 26 to make D.C. the nation's 51st state, The Washington Post's Jenna Portnoy and Patricia Sullivan . The bill, which is expected to pass out of the House, is also expected to die an unceremonious death in the Senate. The last time the House voted on statehood in 1993, it failed resoundingly.

 

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THE SENATE MAP — The Nebraska Democratic Party has yanked its support of Chris Janicek, the party's Senate nominee in the state, after Janicek sent sexually inappropriate comments about a staff member to a group chat, the Lincoln Journal-Star's Shelly Kulhanek and Don Walton reported. ( KFAB posted the actual texts, as well.) The party wanted him to decline the Senate nomination so they could field another candidate to challenge GOP Sen. Ben Sasse, but Janicek has refused to do so. (This was a safe red seat before this story.)

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Was the nation's first large campaign rally after the arrival of COVID-19 my idea? No,' Tulsa Mayor G.T. Bynum on the upcoming Trump rally, per Tulsa World. (He also said he wouldn't intervene to try to postpone the rally.)

 

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